Political Posts

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Right, they've managed to alienate every friend they had in the World and for the first time in history, Arabs and Israelis are in alignment for the common good.  They even earned a sanction from the useless UN.  Who'd have thunk?

 

That is the amazing thing about this action. Now Iran's neighbors understand that a US President will follow through on his talk - unlike the last 2 losers with their "red lines in the sand".

 

Biden & Obama spelled "appeasement" and look like fools today driving Iran to their pinnacle of strength and power.  The Arab nations only respect strength - and they believe in Trump now that Iran is being crushed.

 

Most reasonable people enjoy seeing the neighborhood bully get pounded.

[ourkid8]

44 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Right, they've managed to alienate every friend they had in the World and for the first time in history, Arabs and Israelis are in alignment for the common good.  They even earned a sanction from the useless UN.  Who'd have thunk?

for the record, their GCC neighbours were never friends of Iran. All their neighbours allowed US/Israel launch attacks from their soil. Please stop with your lies and propaganda. 
 

The GCC neighbours will never have alignment with Israel due to the fact their government are war criminals. (They will do business but never have alignment. )

Edited March 14 by ourkid8

[John Hjorth]

9 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Next chapter is assymetrical warfare and the play is outlasting the US on patience. The Iran could well be as toasty as Vietnam was in 1966 and I think the regime can take a punch. I sure hope boots on the ground won’t happen because then we are going to see coffins  with flags coming back as a regular cadence.

 

I also expect to see terror acts against US assets and possibly on US soil. I hope I am wrong on all the above.

 

I think the same. Please be mentally prepared.

[Xerxes]

56 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

A defenseless Iran is a beautiful thing for the Middle East.  Just wait till the Abraham Accords get restarted. An entirely different Middle East is possible.

 

You can thank Trump & Bibi later.

I disagree. 

That rosy picture is only possible if the regime falls, and new government takes over. Then we are off to the races.

Abraham Accords in the current context with Saudi joining or not joining is not relevant. That is more of a Palestinian issue and Saudi sensitivity around it. I understand Fox News fantasies about it. But fantasies doesn’t mean reality.
 

Saudi Arabia has a defense treaty signed few months ago with the U.S. and has a military defense pact with nuclear armed Pakistan. Neither of which helped it. 
 

In the current context, although they and UAE are angry at Tehran, they also aware of who pulled the trigger first, against their better judgment. They were not interested in these wars; they had a functional relationship (all bit frosty at time) with Tehran. their focus has shifted to their economies in the past 8 years or so, not empire building.
 

Then someone from Washington throws a grenade, and goes off whistling. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 14 by Xerxes

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I disagree. 

That rosy picture is only possible if the regime falls, and new government takes over. Then we are off to the races.

Abraham Accords in the current context with Saudi joining or not joining is not relevant. That is more of a Palestinian issue and Saudi sensitivity around it. I understand Fox News fantasies about it. But fantasies doesn’t mean reality.
 

Saudi Arabia has a defense treaty signed few months ago with the U.S. and has a military defense pact with nuclear armed Pakistan. Neither of which helped it. 
 

In the current context, although they and UAE are angry at Tehran, they also aware of who pulled the trigger first, against their better judgment. They were not interested in these wars; their focus has shifted to their economies in the past 8 years or so, not empire building.
 

Then someone from Washington throws a grenade, and goes off whistling. 

 

This war started because of Israel, but the neighbors will be beneficiaries.  No one wanted war, but this regime needed to be clipped.

 

If they fall - great.

 

If not - like Gaza - all they will see is bombs if they persist.  The damage done in 12 days is stunning.

 

As far as fueling more terrorism - Iranian terrorism has never stopped. Now they know the US will go after them and crush them. 

[bargainman]

49 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Next chapter is assymetrical warfare and the play is outlasting the US on patience. The Iran could well be as toasty as Vietnam was in 1966 and I think the regime can take a punch. I sure hope boots on the ground won’t happen because then we are going to see coffins  with flags coming back as a regular cadence.

 

I also expect to see terror acts against US assets and possibly on US soil. I hope I am wrong on all the above.

 

Indeed.  They can cause massive asymmetric damage at little to no cost.  They just threaten to mine Hormuz and it shuts down shipping (insurance companies won't insure any ship that goes through.  Hormuz is close enough that they can launch a cheapo explosive drone(s) from almost anywhere in the country.  It's basically guerilla warfare with the world economy at stake.  Drones to Hormuz require a response in the seconds to neutralize vs to their neighbors where they had minutes.

 

Plus the 1 million person republican guard who've been happy to kill their own people, what are the chances they switch to support the zionists and americans? 

 

No idea what's going to happen but it's not going to be pretty.

[Xerxes]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

This war started because of Israel, but the neighbors will be beneficiaries.  No one wanted war, but this regime needed to be clipped.

 

If they fall - great.

 

If not - like Gaza - all they will see is bombs if they persist.  The damage done in 12 days is stunning.

 

As far as fueling more terrorism - Iranian terrorism has never stopped. Now they know the US will go after them and crush them. 

We are talking past each other. 
that is ok I guess. 
 

[cubsfan]

14 minutes ago, bargainman said:

 

Indeed.  They can cause massive asymmetric damage at little to no cost.  They just threaten to mine Hormuz and it shuts down shipping (insurance companies won't insure any ship that goes through.  Hormuz is close enough that they can launch a cheapo explosive drone(s) from almost anywhere in the country.  It's basically guerilla warfare with the world economy at stake.  Drones to Hormuz require a response in the seconds to neutralize vs to their neighbors where they had minutes.

 

Plus the 1 million person republican guard who've been happy to kill their own people, what are the chances they switch to support the zionists and americans? 

 

No idea what's going to happen but it's not going to be pretty.

 

There are interesting remedies in place.

 

The US Navy has great mine detection capabilities.

 

You'll get some drones that get through of course.

But the focus on launch sites will eventually deal with much of those. 

 

Trump is now requesting that those nations needing oil participate with the passage of oil vessels - adding naval defense.  That's a very interesting turn of events - if they would like to assure their oil.  We will see if they pick a side or watch their economies suffer.  Pretty smart move if you ask me.  I can't wait to see what France, S Korea, China, UK etc do..

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

Iran is pretty much toast and everyone knows it.

 

The real issue is whether there will be regime change for the people. Definitely an open issue.

 

A defenseless Iran is a beautiful thing for the Middle East.  Just wait till the Abraham Accords get restarted. An entirely different Middle East is possible.

 

You can thank Trump & Bibi later.

 

I agree that Iran is in deep trouble...although not without making life miserable for the U.S. and the rest of the world.  All they have to do is destroy their own oil facilities and you will have a major global recession.  

 

Also, Bibi can thank Trump...Bibi's existence is now saved and he probably comes out of this a hero if Iran gives in.  Although, I don't see this Iranian regime giving in...settle yes...giving in?  No!  They will set Iran on fire before they give in!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

3 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

I'm really starting to like you Blake.  That's hilarious!

 

I always wanted a statue in my name - one I can plant in front of Parsad's house when you figure out Trump is the greatest President in 100 years!

 

I own a condo...the strata won't let you do it!    Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

It's all good John..... a mere flesh wound, funny one too.

 

How would I exist without LC, Change, Deal and now Blake. All highly intelligent and worthy. They will figure out I'm right one of these days!!

 

Cubs wouldn't get upset over Cubs jokes...you cannot support that team for that long without having some sense of humor!  Bartman!!!

 

John will have to look that up to understand the reference.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

2 hours ago, ourkid8 said:

 

Your scenario analysis is not even realistic so I am not going to waste my time on it. Let's look at both countries and how they treat their minorities and why don't you tell me where you would want to live?   

 

Iran - Has a significant Jewish and Christian population.  (In fact, I have been invited as a guest to attend numerous events in a Synagogue and they regularly attend events in Mosques in peace and harmony.)

 

Outside of Israel, Iran has arguably one of the largest Jewish population in the region.  Jew's live in peace and harmony in the country.  Here is a clip that just came up on Youtube that is perfecr for this discussion:

 

"In Iran there is the absence of anti-Semitism"

"I feel safer here then in the United States"

 

 

 

Now let's look at Israel  - Has a significant Muslim and Christian population who are Occupied and considered second class citizens. They are constantly under fear of imprisonment, death or being attacked.   I'll avoid the Muslims but let's look what a Christian Pastor has to say or watch the population spit on them: 

 

 

 

 

You guys are all picking and choosing stuff that supports your narrative.  You have been to Iran, so you think you know better.  Cubs is a Trump supporter, so he thinks he knows better.  Neither looks at the middle ground or what is actually happening!  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Next chapter is assymetrical warfare and the play is outlasting the US on patience. The Iran could well be as toasty as Vietnam was in 1966 and I think the regime can take a punch. I sure hope boots on the ground won’t happen because then we are going to see coffins  with flags coming back as a regular cadence.

 

I also expect to see terror acts against US assets and possibly on US soil. I hope I am wrong on all the above.

 

Yup!  This doesn't simply end quickly...repercussions will come for years.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

 

That is the amazing thing about this action. Now Iran's neighbors understand that a US President will follow through on his talk - unlike the last 2 losers with their "red lines in the sand".

 

Biden & Obama spelled "appeasement" and look like fools today driving Iran to their pinnacle of strength and power.  The Arab nations only respect strength - and they believe in Trump now that Iran is being crushed.

 

Most reasonable people enjoy seeing the neighborhood bully get pounded.

 

I agree.  Very rarely has the Middle East avoided sides and not entered into the fray.  Primarily because Iran's proxies have already been taken out by Dubya and Obama...even though Reds and Cubs won't admit that.  Trump took out the rest and has been able to keep Russia/China/North Korea out of the game for the most part.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 hour ago, ourkid8 said:

for the record, their GCC neighbours were never friends of Iran. All their neighbours allowed US/Israel launch attacks from their soil. Please stop with your lies and propaganda. 
 

The GCC neighbours will never have alignment with Israel due to the fact their government are war criminals. (They will do business but never have alignment. )

 

Hmmm, they are probably more aligned then they've ever been.  They are barely speaking out...happy to have U.S. defense systems protect them...have made some contributions...and while they do not want bloodshed, they know a peaceful Middle East is better for everyone long-term.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

40 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

This war started because of Israel, but the neighbors will be beneficiaries.  No one wanted war, but this regime needed to be clipped.

 

If they fall - great.

 

If not - like Gaza - all they will see is bombs if they persist.  The damage done in 12 days is stunning.

 

As far as fueling more terrorism - Iranian terrorism has never stopped. Now they know the US will go after them and crush them. 

 

Again, you and ourkid8 have very skewed views.  Like I said, all Iran has to do to fuck up the U.S. is blow up their own oil facilities...like Kharg Island.  Why do you think the U.S. only hit military installations there? 

 

If the theocracy thinks God is on their side, and they are more than willing to give their lives, let alone their livelihood, they will burn their own bridges to an end to a means...even if they lose at the end of the day! 

 

That's what happens when fuckheads bring God on to their side...whether it's Iran or the U.S.!  Cheers!

[SharperDingaan]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Yep your right....perfectly competitive and perfectly rational behaviour......who gets squeezed in the chain (apart from consumers) out of interest? I guess fuel distributors who deliver to the gas stations - sounds like a lot more truck rolls with smaller loads per stop and perhaps they bear some incremental working capital squeeze? Never a market I went through the value chain of too much to understand the economic incentives at each layer.

 

Actually, take out the consumer and nobody loses  5% margin on $2 gasoline is only 10c ...  but on $4 gasoline, it's now 20c !! Trucks and drivers will typically be fixed costs, that do not change with more but shorter deliveries; assuming no idiots driving hybrids or all electric trucks ... screwing up the party.  Long haulers lose traffic to inter-modal rail, but pick it up again at the last mile. 

 

Joe six-pack ain't gonna walk, and just buys $20 worth of gas at a time. Comes back tomorrow if he doesn't get rid of the gas guzzler or change his driving habits. Repeats a few times ... and suddenly all kinds of F150, F250, and F350 become available cheap, via repossession. 

 

SD

 

 

[Parsad]

I suspect Trump TACOs at some point as pressure mounts.  I don't see Iran giving in, and the U.S. has rebuffed any discussion of talks or settlements...so as pressure mounts from the Middle East allies first, then European allies and domestic pressure...he will have to give in at some point and settle.  Cheers!

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-calls-countries-send-warships-184217276.html

[bargainman]

Regarding mines and why they are so difficult to deal with, this guy gives a good overview.  Contact mines and influence mines.  

 

 

[John Hjorth]

18 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

Joe six-pack ain't gonna walk, and just buys $20 worth of gas at a time. 

 

Let me just say, that I'm pleased SD [ @SharperDingaan ] diden't write 'John six-pack'. I would be just so offended, and threaten to leave CofB&F for good, whining, just to return after one week max! 

[cubsfan]

33 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I agree.  Very rarely has the Middle East avoided sides and not entered into the fray.  Primarily because Iran's proxies have already been taken out by Dubya and Obama...even though Reds and Cubs won't admit that.  Trump took out the rest and has been able to keep Russia/China/North Korea out of the game for the most part.  Cheers!

 

You're getting close brother Parsad..

 

It's not that Obama didn't hammer ISIS hard and kill bin Laden. He did a great job of that.

 

It was his foolish thought of creating "strategic tension" between the Sunnis and Shites - and empowering Iran to offset the Saudis.  What a bone head move that was.  It's not entirely his fault though. When you stack your national security council with Ivy League dopes and academics like Ben Rhodes, Samantha Powers, Anthony Blinken, Jake Sullivan and Susan Rice - what do you expect??   A bunch of academics with NO real world experience.

 

I always said Obama could have been great - and wished he was - but he blew it big time on Iranian foreign policy and totally reviving racial tension in the USA. This after white people voted his ass in 2X. Oh well, blown legacy!

[cubsfan]

39 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

Again, you and ourkid8 have very skewed views.  Like I said, all Iran has to do to fuck up the U.S. is blow up their own oil facilities...like Kharg Island.  Why do you think the U.S. only hit military installations there? 

 

If the theocracy thinks God is on their side, and they are more than willing to give their lives, let alone their livelihood, they will burn their own bridges to an end to a means...even if they lose at the end of the day! 

 

That's what happens when fuckheads bring God on to their side...whether it's Iran or the U.S.!  Cheers!

 

I agree!  The IRGC is not going to surrender. They are hell bent on destruction - just like the NAZI's or Japs.  That's why they are going to get crushed.

 

This is total war - without US occupation - so it's going to be VERY interesting to see what type of coalition may form with the Gulf States, Kurds, others that depend on oil, etc.

 

That's the brilliance of Trump - he's playing chess while everyone else watches. 

 

But this has been way too easy so far. But Iran's days of threatening the world are done.

[cubsfan]

17 minutes ago, bargainman said:

Regarding mines and why they are so difficult to deal with, this guy gives a good overview.  Contact mines and influence mines.  

 

 

 

I'd say this: If the US and Israel can shoot down missiles with missiles (the equivalent of hitting bullets with bullets) - then they can clear mines.

[Parsad]

Just now, cubsfan said:

 

 

That's the brilliance of Trump - he's playing chess while everyone else watches. 

 

But this has been way too easy so far. But Iran's days of threatening the world are done.

 

Hmmm...let's just say he's playing checkers...and either he's about to jump 4 pieces or Iran is going to jump his 4 pieces!

 

But he's definitely not playing chess.  Some of the Generals may be playing chess...but Trump is not playing chess.  Trump plays hunches.  

 

Cheers!

[Libs]

On 3/13/2026 at 9:25 AM, Xerxes said:

Btw I have no doubt that tourism will come back .. it always does. 
 

The effect I think is more trade and capital investment. For instance the aspiration to turn into a AI hub. Things like that. Emirates Airline may not be a long haul network of first choice. Other hubs like Bangalore, Istanbul and other major airport will pick up long haul traffic, that has been so over concentrated in the Gulf region. A rebalancing. 

 

Much respect for you insights, Xerxes. Thank you.