Political Posts

[SharperDingaan]

3 hours ago, dealraker said:

Trump is Trump, he's been the same for 60 years.  So if things, the economy, war, his popularity, etc. waffle into a bad state my guess is that he simply extracts as much as he can from the good ole US of A.  His co-horts, many of whom in my view aren't the best of breed, may too join this parade.  The problem for so many however is that they are younger than Trump, they are subject to prosecution down the road.  Trump can be literally fearless of any outcome because he's not going to live long enough for any consequences of any sort.

 

I've seen this bold act before.  I've seen the ever-repeating rush in of believers for one project after another...and the subsequent slow but sure tide goes out that comes with total failure.

 

To the degree that Trump gets bolder and more agitated, to the degree he ups the ante with his hyper rage impulsivity, that's when he makes mistakes that can't be resolved.  He's never held accountable, that's his special skill.  He slinks away to do yet another deal.

 

It isn't that the Iran situation is one that wouldn't have happened, it is that the denial of what's really happening (and this is throughout Trump-land) is going to blister Americans with anger as time passed.  Note, the Trump lovers will think this means I'm saying Trump will lose power.  Not a snowballs chance in living hell will Trump lose power, he never loses his power over the people; he never loses his power over the justice or legal process/system;  he is never held accountable.

 

We the people?  Now we get what Trump sews.  But just remember that while Trump owns the media and has for 60 years, the media can sell both lust and hate for Trump, both work equally well.  

 

We are beginning to waddle in the unknown and oh boy I do think this could get interesting.  But you can be sure of one thing and it will not change: Trump owns the US for the next few years.

 

Live it and love it!

 

Remember ENRON ??? Kenneth Lay did whatever he wanted 'cause he knew he would be dead before the law ever caught up with him (same as Trump); Skilling ( the American people) ended up taking the fall from errors in judgement. Hell of a gig  .... as long as nobody calls the game on you. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal

 

Thing is ... the game instantly gets called, should Trump get assassinated tomorrow; a gray swan event that is now in a great many state and narco/war lord interests. The top job is a limited time engagement; whether incumbents exit voluntarily, or in a box. What goes around, comes around, and even Caesar went down to his senate. 

 

When enough people have no way forward .... the best solution is to break the rack. And when there are lots of potentials that will never feel the fall ... that solution gets a whole lot closer.

 

Gotta love a long straddle 

 

SD

Edited March 12 by SharperDingaan

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, cwericb said:

 

People who call others names  "... is generally a, malicious tactic driven by insecurity, poor emotional regulation, or learned behaviors. This behavior is frequently used in conflict to avoid intellectual discussion."

Kind of like "Orange Man"?

[Gregmal]

36 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Kind of like "Orange Man"?

Oh don’t worry, it’s entirely selective…lest we forget the numerous times we ve had the “Rules For Debate” manuscript posted here lmfao. And while I do admire the fact that the dumbest of kind deeply desire higher level “intellectual” conversations, the truth is that they just don’t seem capable of it, not dissimilar from how a chubby 5’7 teenager deeply desires the ability to dunk a basketball. 

Edited March 12 by Gregmal

[SharperDingaan]

38 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Kind of like "Orange Man"?

 

Nah ... "Man" implies maturity; "Boy" ..... implies not so much

Then the man does love Florida ... maybe there's a servitude thing in there as well !

 

WTI up nearly USD 10/bbl today, and the day is still early; but hey, we've won 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trump-Declares-Victory-Over-Iran-Even-as-the-Conflict-Escalates.html

 

SD

Edited March 12 by SharperDingaan

[Blake Hampton]

I'm sure that our nation's infighting will lead to a more prosperous future.

 

Trump the Great Uniter.

 

While China is creating 5, 10, 20-year plans, we're busy fighting and bickering amongst ourselves while the foundation of country slowly rots away. And it seems we've been stuck in this mode for a while now. But who cares? Market's up. Unemployment and inflation are both low. Life is generally pretty good.

In other news, it seems the Democrats now want to cut taxes.

[Eldad]

47 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I'm sure that our nation's infighting will lead to a more prosperous future.

 

Trump the Great Uniter.

 

While China is creating 5, 10, 20-year plans, we're busy fighting and bickering amongst ourselves while the foundation of country slowly rots away. And it seems we've been stuck in this mode for a while now. But who cares? Market's up. Unemployment and inflation are both low. Life is generally pretty good.

In other news, it seems the Democrats now want to cut taxes.

Trump is douche and is counter productive. But America is great and keeps winning because we don’t have those Soviet style plans. When the Democrats get Congress, then the government will be completely hamstrung. Best case scenario imo. 

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

Nah ... "Man" implies maturity; "Boy" ..... implies not so much

Then the man does love Florida ... maybe there's a servitude thing in there as well !

 

WTI up nearly USD 10/bbl today, and the day is still early; but hey, we've won 

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Trump-Declares-Victory-Over-Iran-Even-as-the-Conflict-Escalates.html

 

SD

Lately a lot of big money names like Florida.  I wonder why..... could it be complete rejection of left-wing nonsense?  Maybe we should start charging admission to more than just theme parks.  Double for those who identify as non-gendered and triple for those without ID.  Call it a tuition expense.  

[dealraker]

59 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I'm sure that our nation's infighting will lead to a more prosperous future.

 

Trump the Great Uniter.

 

While China is creating 5, 10, 20-year plans, we're busy fighting and bickering amongst ourselves while the foundation of country slowly rots away. And it seems we've been stuck in this mode for a while now. But who cares? Market's up. Unemployment and inflation are both low. Life is generally pretty good.

In other news, it seems the Democrats now want to cut taxes.

Remember Blake that many of us are older.  Oh lordy... how much we do like to rant and predict as to future fears, sometimes regret past mistakes - all dealing with the things on our mind.  But for the most part most of us stay the course as to investing that we have found to work over time.

 

For a 71 year old thinking too much on the past brings nothing but regret.  At your age the future brings a lot of anxiety and not much more so you may want to form some investing plan outside of how you are thinking politically.  What is your investing model?  Mine was to participate in business, mostly but not always business I enjoyed following and being within as to work.  It ended up serving me satisfactorily.

 

I despise Trump and think he represents most of the things I see as wrong with the world.  I have more cash relative to my investing totals than ever in history, yet I am at least 95% invested in businesses.

 

It is highly likely you'll not be satisfied with our next President any more than the present one. Trump's residue may be the very thing I dread the most, that he will personally be responsible for an off-the-charts left wing winning election.  Still...

 

But anyway, what's your investment plan?  

 

 

[cwericb]

2 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Kind of like "Orange Man"?

 

I have never said that.  

[73 Reds]

Just now, cwericb said:

 

I have never said that.  

Never said you did.  And I agree- name calling is childish.

[cubsfan]

2 hours ago, cwericb said:

 

People who call others names  "... is generally a, malicious tactic driven by insecurity, poor emotional regulation, or learned behaviors. This behavior is frequently used in conflict to avoid intellectual discussion."

 

Didn't mean to hurt your feeling Comrade.

 

What "intellectual discussion" were you aiming for when you labeled MAGA Trump supporters "delusional"??  

 

Is that the extent of your intellectual argument?

 

LOL

[cubsfan]

35 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Lately a lot of big money names like Florida.  I wonder why..... could it be complete rejection of left-wing nonsense?  Maybe we should start charging admission to more than just theme parks.  Double for those who identify as non-gendered and triple for those without ID.  Call it a tuition expense.  

 

Save room for me down there!

 

Every time I go to Florida - everyone is happy!

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Save room for me down there!

 

Every time I go to Florida - everyone is happy!

No tuition charge for you, Cubs!

[RichardGibbons]

5 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

No allies have been lost.  In fact they are being gained by the day.  And as for relinquishing power through less welfare, it's called growing up and personal responsibility by the rest of the World.  Unless you are one of those parents who has to support your no-good kids for their adult lives, you're happy to "relinquish" such "power".  

 

Okay, cool! Thanks for enlightening me.

[SharperDingaan]

48 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Lately a lot of big money names like Florida.  I wonder why..... 

 

That's simple  .... they would like the US red states to separate and make the new capital Mara Lago, Florida!. No more nut cases, illegals, folks disagreeing with you, dysfunctional politics, king of our own castle .... get the hell off my cloud !! Welcome to everyday Quebec! but less strong minded and good looking 

 

Last time the north and south battled it out the north won. It would seem that some are hoping for a rematch with a different outcome. 

 

SD

[Viking]

My mental model in the war in Iran is the US and the Israeli's are 'in control.' I am wondering if this is accurate today. 

 

Iran 'controls' the Straight of Hormuz. The longer they remain in control of the straight, the more their position improves. (Iran simply needs to not lose.)

 

My assumption has been that Trump and Isreal will exit (declare victory) and the war will be over. But what if Iran keeps the Straight of Hormuz closed?

 

It makes no sense to me that Iran would open the straight without a signed deal with the US/Israeli's (the fact that Trump is unreliable  - putting it politely - is another fly in the ointment). 

 

The current leader of Iran had his father, wife and kid killed by US/Iranian strikes. He knows the US/Israeli's are now actively trying to take him out. How do you negotiate with someone who is actively trying to kill you?

 

My guess is Iran is motivated to inflict pain on the US. How? Keep the straight closed for a couple of months. Oil at $150 (or even $200) will cause inflation expectations to ramp higher - this will cause interest rates to ramp higher. Obviously, the stock market expects this to be a big nothing burger (averages are near all time highs - which is almost always the right call). 

 

No idea how this plays out. The Straight of Hormuz has never been shut down before. We are in uncharted waters. 

 

What makes this conflict so interesting is the pain it is causing is highly disproportionate. It is barely (so far) impacting the US. It is having a big impact on oil importing countries (Europe, India, Japan etc). And it is having a massive impact on the economies of Gulf countries (who were not consulted before hand). This will likely become a much more important story the longer the straight remains closed.

 

Trump is the master a pivoting when he needs to. I am starting to wonder if he has miscalculated this time. We will find out in the coming weeks and months. Crazy times.

 

There is a reason no previous president has done what the US/Israeli's have just done - the risk of the Straight of Hormuz being closed for an extended period was too high (and the catastrophic impact this would have on the global economy). We are now in uncharted territory. 

 

Trump might be about to learn a very hard lesson: wars are very easy to start. And sometimes much more difficult to end. 

 

PS: Having said all of that, by base case is this ends up being a big nothing burger for financial markets. But it looks to me like the tail risks are getting larger the longer the straight remains closed.  

Edited March 12 by Viking

[John Hjorth]

2 minutes ago, Viking said:

My mental model in the war in Iran is the US and the Israeli's are 'in control.' I am wondering if this is right. 

 

Iran 'controls' the Straight of Hormuz. The longer they remain in control of the straight, the more their position improves. 

 

The current leader of Iran had his father, wife and kid killed by US/Iranian strikes. My guess is Iran is motivated to inflict pain on the US. How? Keep the straight closed for a couple of months. Oil at $150 (or even $200) will cause inflation expectations to ramp higher - this will cause interest rates to ramp higher. Obviously, the stock market expects this to be a big nothing burger (averages a near all time highs). 

 

No idea how this plays out. The Straight of Hormuz has never been shut down before. We are in uncharted waters. 

 

Trump is the master a pivoting when he needs to. I am starting to wonder if he has miscalculated this time. We will find out in the coming weeks and months. Crazy times.

 

Trump might be about to learn a very hard lesson: wars are very easy to start. And sometimes much more difficult to end. 

 

@Viking,

 

I'm thinking about the whole thing like you do, and I'm trying to keep my mouth shut here in this topic about it. Absolutely crazy stuff going on.

 

And here in Europe we also have this not so nice fella' Putin in Moscow to think about, all while Ukraine is near broke.

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, dealraker said:

But anyway, what's your investment plan?  

 

Just to add to this  .....

 

Orange Boy is quite some scum, but also the best thing a young person could possibly hope for. Your future depends on change, and the more radical and extreme the change agent the better. Few have been better at burning the establishment down than Trump .

 

The lives of wealthy kids are mapped out for them at birth; while most will cave to the social pressure, only a few rebels are tolerated .... and kids will eventually mellow them (Paris Hilton, Prince Harry, etc). Similar thing for the poor and middle class kids; but the limiter is opportunity, not ability. Those that are able, make opportunity.   

 

All those rebels, able to think/do for themselves, and all with chips on the shoulder .... what could possibly be better  . Partner, give as well as you get, embrace the world as it is, squeeze, and let the cream rise to the top! Orange Boy has been working hard on removing your barriers 

 

Look to the Rockefellers, Morgans, Capones, etc. versus the Musks and Zuckerbergs as the examples ... and the world is yours. Keep in legal, always within the industry 'norm'  ..... and you will be your own man. 

 

SD 

Edited March 12 by SharperDingaan

[Viking]

16 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Viking,

 

I'm thinking about the whole thing like you do, and I'm trying to keep my mouth shut here in this topic about it. Absolutely crazy stuff going on.

 

And here in Europe we also have this not so nice fella' Putin in Moscow to think about, all while Ukraine is near broke.

 

The war in Iran has been a massive gift for Russia for two simple reasons:

1. With the price of oil skyrocketing they are likely making big money
2. As the US depletes its stores of weapons in Iran/region, they will have little to send to Ukraine

The longer the war goes the better for Russia. Do you think they are helping Iran out behind the scenes? (Follow the money is probably instructive in this case...)

Edited March 12 by Viking

[John Hjorth]

13 minutes ago, Viking said:

The war in Iran has been a massive gift for Russia for two simple reasons:

1. With the price of oil skyrocketing they are likely making big money
2. As the US depletes its stores of weapons in Iran/region, they will have little to send to Ukraine

The longer the war goes the better for Russia. Do you think they are helping Iran out behind the scenes? (Follow the money is probably instructive in this case...)

 

@Viking,

 

Yes, it's almost unbearable to think about. I wan't to avoid self-oscillation modus here, though.

[cubsfan]

17 minutes ago, Viking said:

 

The war in Iran has been a massive gift for Russia for two simple reasons:

1. With the price of oil skyrocketing they are likely making big money
2. As the US depletes its stores of weapons in Iran/region, they will have little to send to Ukraine

The longer the war goes the better for Russia. Do you think they are helping Iran out behind the scenes? (Follow the money is probably instructive in this case...)

 

This works both ways.

 

Russia gets massive amounts of drones from Iran.

Not so many going forward with the destruction of Iranian drone factories.

 

If you are Iranian or Venezuelan with Russia anti-aircraft defenses that have been totally obliterated by the combo US/Iran onslaught - you are very nervous if you've been a buyer of Russian (obsolete/useless) defenses. Imagine what the Kremlin is thinking now - shit - good thing we have nukes - cause we're screwed.

 

The biggest thing this war has shown is how behind the Chinese & Russian militaries are in comparison to the USA/Israel air forces.

They are absolutely pathetic, and now everyone knows it.

 

[Gregmal]

I think if nothing else the logic(deducing of course) stops on the one way street. I'm failing to see how the US is "depleting" its weapons stockpile while countries that have been doing just that, for years now, are beneficiaries? While its possible all we have here as far as weapons go, is like 2-3 weeks worth of a mini "war"'s worth of weapons, I really doubt that...and given how other countries, lesser countries, have been fighting wars for years, I highly doubt any of our weapons stockpile has been materially impacted, nor will it be for some time. 

 

Then again, if it was wound down, then we need to start going after the people whom gave them all away in the name of virtue signaling and fighting proxy wars(rather than real ones)!

Edited March 12 by Gregmal

[dealraker]

I'm with John Bolton as to his belief that Trump will attempt to walk away from the war in Iran.  Trump can't stick with anything long - especially anything that's a grind to his pretenses of genius type quick fixes and/or deals.  If this is the case it will be interesting to see how the Strait reality and "total victory" mesh with the world.

 

We allow Trump to get away with anything he wants while of course claiming total success.  But as skilled at enabling as we've become in this country - well this one may challenge us.  

 

 

Edited March 12 by dealraker

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

I think if nothing else the logic(deducing of course) stops on the one way street. I'm failing to see how the US is "depleting" its weapons stockpile while countries that have been doing just that, for years now, are beneficiaries? 

 

Greg [ @Gregmal ],

 

Who and which 'beneficiaries' are you thinking and writing about here?

[73 Reds]

16 minutes ago, dealraker said:

I'm with John Bolton as to his belief that Trump will attempt to walk away from the war in Iran.  Trump can't stick with anything long - especially anything that's a grind to his pretenses of genius type quick fixes and/or deals.  If this is the case it will be interesting to see how the Strait reality and "total victory" mesh with the world.

 

 

I dunno, Border Security and The Abraham Accords are but two examples that transcend Presidential terms separated by Democratic chaos.  And in the infamous words of Gene Wilder playing one of my favorite all time movie characters, Willy Wonka, "So much to do, so little time".  Didn't realize how popular Weekend at Bernies really is with the Left but a burial is always required unless you prefer corpses to remain on top of the ground.  

Edited March 12 by 73 Reds
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