UK Posted March 9 Posted March 9 47 minutes ago, John Hjorth said: I don't know if this is true, but how [on Earth] do one obtain that without boots on the ground or destroying the Kharg oil installations? [I see Brent at 107.78, WTI at 102.91 right now.] Perhaps just some speculation. Definitely some boots should be involved...and maybe some new super weapons
Whensthepaintdry? Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Im going down the rabbit hole with this guy’s videos now.
73 Reds Posted March 9 Posted March 9 12 hours ago, Parsad said: This is not going to age well for Cubs! Kind of like how the NY Jets thought Mark Sanchez would save the franchise until he ran into his own center's rear end! Cheers! Not so sure. How refreshing it is to have a President whose decisions don't rest on appeasing his base or the next election results.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 9 Posted March 9 1 hour ago, Whensthepaintdry? said: Im going down the rabbit hole with this guy’s videos now. I watched one of his videos where he claimed the Middle Eastern countries, owning a whopping ~$1 Trillion in U.S. stocks, would crash the stock market if they sold. I guess he doesn't realize how big the U.S. equity markets are. I turned it off at that point.
Whensthepaintdry? Posted March 9 Posted March 9 He has me hooked. The next few videos after the Iran trap are about Putin/Russia. Interesting theories to say the least. I hope they don’t come to be true. I think with the amount of leverage in markets selling 1t of assets could probably make a nice dent.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Just now, Whensthepaintdry? said: He has me hooked. The next few videos after the Iran trap are about Putin/Russia. Interesting theories to say the least. I hope they don’t come to be true. I think with the amount of leverage in markets selling 1t of assets could probably make a nice dent. He has similar appeal to Peter Zeihan--endless pontification about macro & geopolitics. It can be addictive, but I'm afraid a big waste of time for an investor
SharperDingaan Posted March 9 Posted March 9 4 hours ago, John Hjorth said: I don't know if this is true, but how [on Earth] do one obtain that without boots on the ground or destroying the Kharg oil installations? The reality is that Kharg Island is no different to the former Nordstrom 2 pipeline. The only way to reliably stop via flow (incentivised via bribes), is to destroy it. So long as the US/Israel continue to only bomb .... the oil continues to flow, and crude prices are mitigated. As the regime cannot realistically defend it; as soon as troops touch the ground it's torched, and crude prices rocket upwards. SD
dealraker Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) Cubs!!! You gittin' in on the Powerus drone deal the Trump boys are backing (aka getting free stock in)? Looks like some serious multi "baggers" are priced in the cart. Let the good times roll baby. Let's just say Pentagon sales are coming. Reds? You in on this? Edited March 9 by dealraker
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 9 Posted March 9 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: The reality is that Kharg Island is no different to the former Nordstrom 2 pipeline. The only way to reliably stop via flow (incentivised via bribes), is to destroy it. So long as the US/Israel continue to only bomb .... the oil continues to flow, and crude prices are mitigated. As the regime cannot realistically defend it; as soon as troops touch the ground it's torched, and crude prices rocket upwards. SD Crude is already up ~50% quite quickly. This is due to the Strait closure of traffic and loss of Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, etc exports. Not just Iranian. I would not expect the loss of Iranian production (~3MM barrels/day) to cause oil to rocket much higher than where it is today ~$100-110/barrel as today's prices include disruption of oil from all Gulf states, not just Iran. If anything, it might go lower if the Strait opens even if we lose most of Iranian production... Edited March 9 by Dalal.Holdings
Whensthepaintdry? Posted March 9 Posted March 9 I would think most time spent on the politics board has been a waste of time to the investor. It’s all educational. I think his theories have merit. Doesn’t really matter what I think though. Hopefully more important people than me are considering all of the possibilities.
John Hjorth Posted March 9 Posted March 9 30 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said: Crude is already up ~50% quite quickly. This is due to the Strait closure of traffic and loss of Saudi, Iraqi, Kuwaiti, etc exports. Not just Iranian. I would not expect the loss of Iranian production (~3MM barrels/day) to cause oil to rocket much higher than where it is today ~$100-110/barrel as today's prices include disruption of oil from all Gulf states, not just Iran. If anything, it might go lower if the Strait opens even if we lose most of Iranian production... I think @Dalal.Holdings' above post must be roughly right, isen't it? - I'm certainly not a oilbug. There are so many moving parts in this. What about products derived from refining oil? What will happen in that space, if The Strait of Hormuz will stay closed for a longer period?
John Hjorth Posted March 9 Posted March 9 44 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: The reality is that Kharg Island is no different to the former Nordstrom 2 pipeline. The only way to reliably stop via flow (incentivised via bribes), is to destroy it. So long as the US/Israel continue to only bomb .... the oil continues to flow, and crude prices are mitigated. As the regime cannot realistically defend it; as soon as troops touch the ground it's torched, and crude prices rocket upwards. SD Thanks, SD [ @SharperDingaan ].
rogermunibond Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Currently about 65% of the 20 Mb/day supply is curtailed. Still ample floating storage of Russian oil so India and China are supplied. According to Bloomberg, panic oil buyers mostly SKorea and Japan.
backtothebeach Posted March 9 Posted March 9 Medium and long-term all this could be massively bullish, if (big if) a new regime in Iran starts pursuing prosperity and becomes (somewhat) democratic. ---- Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi: Transition Plan and the Fight for Iran's Freedom https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/exiled-iranian-prince-reza-pahlavi-transition-plan/id1502871393?i=1000753799291
dealraker Posted March 9 Posted March 9 1 hour ago, dealraker said: Cubs!!! You gittin' in on the Powerus drone deal the Trump boys are backing (aka getting free stock in)? Looks like some serious multi "baggers" are priced in the cart. Let the good times roll baby. Let's just say Pentagon sales are coming. Reds? You in on this? Yes, just being silly. But lord help us if this forebears what politicians and and families seek from gaining office in the future. You won't always love the man at the top.
Xerxes Posted March 9 Posted March 9 19 minutes ago, rogermunibond said: Currently about 65% of the 20 Mb/day supply is curtailed. Still ample floating storage of Russian oil so India and China are supplied. According to Bloomberg, panic oil buyers mostly SKorea and Japan. I think the Yom Kippur number needs to put in perspective of the then total aggregate global supply, this was the seven sister era, where a lot of global production came from there.
changegonnacome Posted March 9 Posted March 9 20 hours ago, Gregmal said: The first part of the sentence admits that there’s finally action being taken. It’s undoubtedly positive for the near-mid term safety of a lot of people and places. So the underlying assumption here (which is false) is that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States and so something just had to be done now. Nobody - not a single person from the admin has articulated the imminent threat thesis in a way that isn't nonsensical. So lets all agree that Trump (with Israel the forcing function) has decided that now would be an optimal time to move on Iran and IMO roll the dice on what emerges post-conflict is something superior to the previous status quo. This is a geoptilcial sitituation completley manufactorered by Trump. Which is just plain dumb. 20 hours ago, Gregmal said: Except none of them did anything to make things safer, even in the short run, except for Trump. Just not true. I know Trump trained you all to hate the JCPOA and so its dogma now in MAGA.....I mean think about it for a second here MAGA goes on like the JCPOA failed, they tricked Obama and Iran got nukes c.2016, their economy thrived and they became a global superpower....big problem though, they DONT have and didn't get nukes, sanctions even under the JCPOA reliefs meant their economy was a basket case...when you get down to it the big problem for Trump was that he listened to Bibi, killed the deal and then couldn't come up with a better solution than a JCPOA one and so here we are with the Middle East on fire. I mean I dont need to link to the clips again of Bibi since 1992 saying Iran is two weeks away from getting the bomb. Bibi is doing right by Israel - Iran (nuclear or no nuclear) is an existential threat to Israel their great enemy and destroying the Iranian regime is what any nation of 9m people facing a nation of 90m people in their backyard would fantasize about. That the pathway exists for Israel to achieve that via another countries military is the most unusual thing about this whole situation when you stop for two seconds to think about it. 20 hours ago, Castanza said: It’s a fair point. We often get too caught up in the idea that we need a perfect solution that accounts for all potential outcomes. No perfect solutions in international relations , only trade offs!!!.....the question always boils down to what is the least worst option! The MAGA fantasy is that advocates for a JCPOA type solution are somehow naive morons who trust a bunch of jihadists - on the contrary the JCPOA advocates are the least naive people in the arena here. They are realists here. They realize and don't trust Iranian intentions but they also don't trust Israeli's intentions. Its the correct posture. This is at the end of the United States of America the Middle East is a gazillion miles away. They realize Israel/Bibi's desire to destroy Iran using US military might and that nuclear threat inflation has always been Israel's best vehicle to advance that aim and pull the US into doing just that but that this is something to be avoided. The JCPOA advocates also recognize the cultish jihadist danger of an Iranian regime ever getting a bomb. It also can't be allowed to happen. Nobody ever claimed the JCPOA was perfect - but a war deferred is a war won sometimes.....and I can tell a story about a Iranian regime that could be kept pre-lift off and that might have collapsed of its own accord a decade (or two) from now. An old boss of mine always said that in business and in life enough troubles will come at you from areas of life in which you have ZERO control or agency and therefore its incumbent on smart people to recognize that and engage in risk minimization in the areas in which you have agency. The same is true for international affairs. The JCPOA was precisely that - a low cost deferment & risk minimization mechanism. You take those wins all day long in international affairs, the world is troublesome enough without catalysing problems yourself. This is precisely what Trump has done and its about the dumbest thing you can do as commander in chief
73 Reds Posted March 9 Posted March 9 58 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: So the underlying assumption here (which is false) is that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States and so something just had to be done now. Nobody - not a single person from the admin has articulated the imminent threat thesis in a way that isn't nonsensical. So lets all agree that Trump (with Israel the forcing function) has decided that now would be an optimal time to move on Iran and IMO roll the dice on what emerges post-conflict is something superior to the previous status quo. This is a geoptilcial sitituation completley manufactorered by Trump. Which is just plain dumb. Just not true. I know Trump trained you all to hate the JCPOA and so its dogma now in MAGA.....I mean think about it for a second here MAGA goes on like the JCPOA failed, they tricked Obama and Iran got nukes c.2016, their economy thrived and they became a global superpower....big problem though, they DONT have and didn't get nukes, sanctions even under the JCPOA reliefs meant their economy was a basket case...when you get down to it the big problem for Trump was that he listened to Bibi, killed the deal and then couldn't come up with a better solution than a JCPOA one and so here we are with the Middle East on fire. I mean I dont need to link to the clips again of Bibi since 1992 saying Iran is two weeks away from getting the bomb. Bibi is doing right by Israel - Iran (nuclear or no nuclear) is an existential threat to Israel their great enemy and destroying the Iranian regime is what any nation of 9m people facing a nation of 90m people in their backyard would fantasize about. That the pathway exists for Israel to achieve that via another countries military is the most unusual thing about this whole situation when you stop for two seconds to think about it. No perfect solutions in international relations , only trade offs!!!.....the question always boils down to what is the least worst option! The MAGA fantasy is that advocates for a JCPOA type solution are somehow naive morons who trust a bunch of jihadists - on the contrary the JCPOA advocates are the least naive people in the arena here. They are realists here. They realize and don't trust Iranian intentions but they also don't trust Israeli's intentions. Its the correct posture. This is at the end of the United States of America the Middle East is a gazillion miles away. They realize Israel/Bibi's desire to destroy Iran using US military might and that nuclear threat inflation has always been Israel's best vehicle to advance that aim and pull the US into doing just that but that this is something to be avoided. The JCPOA advocates also recognize the cultish jihadist danger of an Iranian regime ever getting a bomb. It also can't be allowed to happen. Nobody ever claimed the JCPOA was perfect - but a war deferred is a war won sometimes.....and I can tell a story about a Iranian regime that could be kept pre-lift off and that might have collapsed of its own accord a decade (or two) from now. An old boss of mine always said that in business and in life enough troubles will come at you from areas of life in which you have ZERO control or agency and therefore its incumbent on smart people to recognize that and engage in risk minimization in the areas in which you have agency. The same is true for international affairs. The JCPOA was precisely that - a low cost deferment & risk minimization mechanism. You take those wins all day long in international affairs, the world is troublesome enough without catalysing problems yourself. This is precisely what Trump has done and its about the dumbest thing you can do as commander in chief I could post a detailed, comprehensive response but why bother when anonymous investor board posters have more inside intelligence on this issue than the US and Israel combined.
changegonnacome Posted March 9 Posted March 9 27 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: more inside intelligence on this issue than the US and Israel combined I'm sorry - I dont require top level security clearance to come to the conclusion that no imminent threat was identified. Gang of Eight members briefed by Rubio have confirmed the same....the imminent threat identified was a derivative and circular one which when said aloud is nonsensical..... It goes like this - Israel was going to attack Iran, Iran's response to that attack was likely to include US assets in the region ipso facto an imminent threat (it of course forgets that Israel is 100% dependent on the US for its defense and its ability to executive those offensive attacks in safety is a derivative of that security umbrella we provide). What a beautiful circular word salad by Rubio below -
adesigar Posted March 9 Posted March 9 32 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: I could post a detailed, comprehensive response but why bother when anonymous investor board posters have more inside intelligence on this issue than the US and Israel combined. You MAGA morons seem to have all the inside intelligence when it comes to Obama and Biden administrations. I cant believe i used MAGA and intelligence in the same sentence.
73 Reds Posted March 9 Posted March 9 35 minutes ago, changegonnacome said: I'm sorry - I dont require top level security clearance to come to the conclusion that no imminent threat was identified. Gang of Eight members briefed by Rubio have confirmed the same....the imminent threat identified was a derivative and circular one which when said aloud is nonsensical..... It goes like this - Israel was going to attack Iran, Iran's response to that attack was likely to include US assets in the region ipso facto an imminent threat (it of course forgets that Israel is 100% dependent on the US for its defense and its ability to executive those offensive attacks in safety is a derivative of that security umbrella we provide). What a beautiful circular word salad by Rubio below - LOL, like I said.....
cubsfan Posted March 9 Posted March 9 4 hours ago, dealraker said: Cubs!!! You gittin' in on the Powerus drone deal the Trump boys are backing (aka getting free stock in)? Looks like some serious multi "baggers" are priced in the cart. Let the good times roll baby. Let's just say Pentagon sales are coming. Reds? You in on this? I didn't even know,,,, he must be doing all this just to make money! Dirty bastard!
cubsfan Posted March 9 Posted March 9 3 hours ago, backtothebeach said: Medium and long-term all this could be massively bullish, if (big if) a new regime in Iran starts pursuing prosperity and becomes (somewhat) democratic. ---- Exiled Iranian Prince Reza Pahlavi: Transition Plan and the Fight for Iran's Freedom https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/exiled-iranian-prince-reza-pahlavi-transition-plan/id1502871393?i=1000753799291 Shhhhhoosh,,, the TDS crowd has it all figure out after 9 days!
cubsfan Posted March 9 Posted March 9 2 hours ago, changegonnacome said: So the underlying assumption here (which is false) is that Iran posed an imminent threat to the United States and so something just had to be done now. Nobody - not a single person from the admin has articulated the imminent threat thesis in a way that isn't nonsensical. So lets all agree that Trump (with Israel the forcing function) has decided that now would be an optimal time to move on Iran and IMO roll the dice on what emerges post-conflict is something superior to the previous status quo. This is a geoptilcial sitituation completley manufactorered by Trump. Which is just plain dumb. Just not true. I know Trump trained you all to hate the JCPOA and so its dogma now in MAGA.....I mean think about it for a second here MAGA goes on like the JCPOA failed, they tricked Obama and Iran got nukes c.2016, their economy thrived and they became a global superpower....big problem though, they DONT have and didn't get nukes, sanctions even under the JCPOA reliefs meant their economy was a basket case...when you get down to it the big problem for Trump was that he listened to Bibi, killed the deal and then couldn't come up with a better solution than a JCPOA one and so here we are with the Middle East on fire. I mean I dont need to link to the clips again of Bibi since 1992 saying Iran is two weeks away from getting the bomb. Bibi is doing right by Israel - Iran (nuclear or no nuclear) is an existential threat to Israel their great enemy and destroying the Iranian regime is what any nation of 9m people facing a nation of 90m people in their backyard would fantasize about. That the pathway exists for Israel to achieve that via another countries military is the most unusual thing about this whole situation when you stop for two seconds to think about it. No perfect solutions in international relations , only trade offs!!!.....the question always boils down to what is the least worst option! The MAGA fantasy is that advocates for a JCPOA type solution are somehow naive morons who trust a bunch of jihadists - on the contrary the JCPOA advocates are the least naive people in the arena here. They are realists here. They realize and don't trust Iranian intentions but they also don't trust Israeli's intentions. Its the correct posture. This is at the end of the United States of America the Middle East is a gazillion miles away. They realize Israel/Bibi's desire to destroy Iran using US military might and that nuclear threat inflation has always been Israel's best vehicle to advance that aim and pull the US into doing just that but that this is something to be avoided. The JCPOA advocates also recognize the cultish jihadist danger of an Iranian regime ever getting a bomb. It also can't be allowed to happen. Nobody ever claimed the JCPOA was perfect - but a war deferred is a war won sometimes.....and I can tell a story about a Iranian regime that could be kept pre-lift off and that might have collapsed of its own accord a decade (or two) from now. An old boss of mine always said that in business and in life enough troubles will come at you from areas of life in which you have ZERO control or agency and therefore its incumbent on smart people to recognize that and engage in risk minimization in the areas in which you have agency. The same is true for international affairs. The JCPOA was precisely that - a low cost deferment & risk minimization mechanism. You take those wins all day long in international affairs, the world is troublesome enough without catalysing problems yourself. This is precisely what Trump has done and its about the dumbest thing you can do as commander in chief Love ya' change,,,, but the JCPOA deal had to be the dumbest most cowardly deal of all time. Ranks right up there with Chamberlain giving away Sudetenland....was to be expected from an empty suit like Obama and his clown car security advisers like Ben Rhodes and the Ivy League idiots. In spite of the language barrier, Trump is speaking the language the IRGC understands..FAFO
73 Reds Posted March 9 Posted March 9 1 minute ago, cubsfan said: Love ya' change,,,, but the JCPOA deal had to be the dumbest most cowardly deal of all time. Ranks right up there with Chamberlain giving away Sudetenland....was to be expected from an empty suit like Obama and his clown car security advisers like Ben Rhodes and the Ivy League idiots. In spite of the language barrier, Trump is speaking the language the IRGC understands..FAFO Yeah, unenforceable "deals" are not worth the paper they are written on. And we paid them to accept this deal so they could arm their terrorist proxies and further supress the lives of their countrymen. Some people never learn. Same people who have to hide in a bomb shelter before they believe there is a threat. As someone who has spent time in bomb shelters, it is never a good idea to wait for the inevitable and pretend everything is just rosy.
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