Political Posts

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-budget-deficit-20-over-191100454.html

 

Tariffs so far not enough to offset increasing budget deficit.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, Parsad said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-budget-deficit-20-over-191100454.html

 

Tariffs so far not enough to offset increasing budget deficit.  Cheers!

 

This looks like another DOGE...hype, hype, hype...reality! 

 

By the way, what happened to DOGE?  Is it over, or are they still working on cuts?  I can't see why you would ever terminate it.  You should always be looking for savings.

 

Cheers!

[cubsfan]

1 minute ago, Parsad said:

 

This looks like another DOGE...hype, hype, hype...reality! 

 

By the way, what happened to DOGE?  Is it over, or are they still working on cuts?  I can't see why you would ever terminate it.  You should always be looking for savings.

 

Cheers!

 

It's over, they tried to murder Big Balls!

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

 

It's over, they tried to murder Big Balls!

 

Big Balls was probably selling coke on the side!  So they stopped because some unqualified kid hired by Musk was beaten up?  Weak!

 

The shooter at the CDC fired 500 rounds and was angry at the Covid vaccine.  Another MAGA nutjob with a gun!  Cheers!

[Rainier]

I don’t venture into this thread often, so I apologize if this has been asked already.

 

Has anyone read or listened to anything in-depth/non-partisan regarding the firing of the head of the BLS? Obviously a quick Google search brings up a million articles and blog posts about how Trump is suppressing the truth (and IDK, maybe he is, or maybe there was really something rotten in the BLS). I’m just curious if anyone has read anything that looks at it objectively. In a former job, I spent a lot of time analyzing BLS and Census data for use in financial models. It always seemed bizarre/suspect to me that there would quite often be such sizable revisions. But I never looked into the collection/revision process at the time. 
 

I’m just curious if anyone has seen anything objective/non-partisan about this firing or about the revisions?

[nsx5200]

24 minutes ago, Rainier said:

Has anyone read or listened to anything in-depth/non-partisan regarding the firing of the head of the BLS? Obviously a quick Google search brings up a million articles and blog posts about how Trump is suppressing the truth (and IDK, maybe he is, or maybe there was really something rotten in the BLS). I’m just curious if anyone has read anything that looks at it objectively. In a former job, I spent a lot of time analyzing BLS and Census data for use in financial models. It always seemed bizarre/suspect to me that there would quite often be such sizable revisions. But I never looked into the collection/revision process at the time. 

You need more in-depth longer-form of journalism:

Here's a podcast episode on how BLS collect their actual data:

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1256727558

 

and some potential side-effect from the firing, based on stories from other countries:

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1256971798

 

Note that NPR and the whole economic profession tends to lean left if you want to try to bias it.  Additional thoughts for biasing: "Never ask a barber if you need a haircut" also applies to the economic profession.

[Spekulatius]

39 minutes ago, Rainier said:

I don’t venture into this thread often, so I apologize if this has been asked already.

 

Has anyone read or listened to anything in-depth/non-partisan regarding the firing of the head of the BLS? Obviously a quick Google search brings up a million articles and blog posts about how Trump is suppressing the truth (and IDK, maybe he is, or maybe there was really something rotten in the BLS). I’m just curious if anyone has read anything that looks at it objectively. In a former job, I spent a lot of time analyzing BLS and Census data for use in financial models. It always seemed bizarre/suspect to me that there would quite often be such sizable revisions. But I never looked into the collection/revision process at the time. 
 

I’m just curious if anyone has seen anything objective/non-partisan about this firing or about the revisions?

I recommend listening to this podcast to form an opinion:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000705520320

 

Edited August 12, 2025 by Spekulatius

[adesigar]

16 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

If I do that, it will spread.  I'd have to delete like 100 members or more as well.  

 

Sticking our heads in the sand is the opposite of what we should be doing!  Cheers!

 

What will spread? Why would you have to delete members? 

 

I'm talking about a website feature.

 

Currently if A ignores B, posts by B are hidden for A. This is how the current site feature works. But if C quotes B, then the quote shows the content of B's post to A. There are forum settings/plugins that would hide such posts for A as well. 

Edited August 12, 2025 by adesigar

[whiskybravo]

2 hours ago, adesigar said:

 

What will spread? Why would you have to delete members? 

 

I'm talking about a website feature.

 

Currently if A ignores B, posts by B are hidden for A. This is how the current site feature works. But if C quotes B, then the quote shows the content of B's post to A. There are forum settings/plugins that would hide such posts for A as well. 

An ostrich putting his head in the sand to avoid danger turns out to be a myth.  What you’re practicing is echo chamber behavior.

 

“Overall, echo chamber behavior creates an insulated environment that can distort reality by amplifying confirmation and minimizing dissent, making it difficult to engage with diverse or opposing views constructively.”

 

You’re not alone of course.  It is part of the rigid polarization that divides the country.

[Red Lion]

7 hours ago, Parsad said:

 

Greg, it's because consumption has essentially flat-lined for those in the middle income and lower.  If deals aren't made and at some point tariffs are implemented in the course of ordinary business, the risk isn't inflation but deflation as consumption collapses.  Be careful what you wish for!  Cheers!

I think deflation is just as big a risk as inflation over the short term too. Isn’t this a continuation of the last 30 (50?) years where we have deflationary forces and low interest rates, with the top 20% doing great and possibly experiencing higher asset prices as a result of the low interest rates? Probably a massive oversimplification, but it seems these trends are likely to reemerge over the next few years. 

[nsx5200]

52 minutes ago, Red Lion said:

I think deflation is just as big a risk as inflation over the short term too. Isn’t this a continuation of the last 30 (50?) years where we have deflationary forces and low interest rates, with the top 20% doing great and possibly experiencing higher asset prices as a result of the low interest rates? Probably a massive oversimplification, but it seems these trends are likely to reemerge over the next few years. 

Deflation over the last 30 years was due to China's factories spinning up.  It's possible that all these efforts to bring manufacturing back to the States will bring another set of factories online to compete with China's factories on price.  I don't see it happening unless the US invest heavily in robotics and automation to compete against China's supply of still-cheaper labor.  IMHO, the race to the bottom really sucks, and I prefer the US not go that route.

[73 Reds]

7 hours ago, nsx5200 said:

Deflation over the last 30 years was due to China's factories spinning up.  It's possible that all these efforts to bring manufacturing back to the States will bring another set of factories online to compete with China's factories on price.  I don't see it happening unless the US invest heavily in robotics and automation to compete against China's supply of still-cheaper labor.  IMHO, the race to the bottom really sucks, and I prefer the US not go that route.

IMO deflation over the past few decades is primarily due to the efficiencies of new technologies and resulting competition. 

[73 Reds]

11 hours ago, whiskybravo said:

An ostrich putting his head in the sand to avoid danger turns out to be a myth.  What you’re practicing is echo chamber behavior.

 

“Overall, echo chamber behavior creates an insulated environment that can distort reality by amplifying confirmation and minimizing dissent, making it difficult to engage with diverse or opposing views constructively.”

 

You’re not alone of course.  It is part of the rigid polarization that divides the country.

No one dares to ask why the country is divided.  

[Malmqky]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

No one dares to ask why the country is divided.  

 

And this is probably the most important question we should be asking.

 

In my opinion, my republican and democrat friends and neighbors are far more similar than different. We disagree on some things, but we get along, respect one another, and *gasp* even like each other most of the time.

 

Yet, the media literally lies and paints things in such an extreme light (well, fear and anger sells, doesn't it?) and does it's best to divide us, to play into our tribalistic nature. Our politicians are just as bad. I would argue if you took the average republican and democrat off the street, they would be far more similar to each other than the republican to his GOP senator or the democrat to his. Yet, these echo chambers exist, masking this reality.

 

This country is likely going to decline drastically, if not break apart. And we'll be able to trace it back to things like money in politics, corrupt and useless media, and politicians of the same nature who are in it not for the average person, but for money and loyalty to their shitty party.

 

Anyways, rant over.

[73 Reds]

8 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

 

And this is probably the most important question we should be asking.

 

In my opinion, my republican and democrat friends and neighbors are far more similar than different. We disagree on some things, but we get along, respect one another, and *gasp* even like each other most of the time.

 

Yet, the media literally lies and paints things in such an extreme light (well, fear and anger sells, doesn't it?) and does it's best to divide us, to play into our tribalistic nature. Our politicians are just as bad. I would argue if you took the average republican and democrat off the street, they would be far more similar to each other than the republican to his GOP senator or the democrat to his. Yet, these echo chambers exist, masking this reality.

 

This country is likely going to decline drastically, if not break apart. And we'll be able to trace it back to things like money in politics, corrupt and useless media, and politicians of the same nature who are in it not for the average person, but for money and loyalty to their shitty party.

 

Anyways, rant over.

Yes, corruption is at the heart of the matter.  We need to ask ourselves where the money comes from to support all of the outlier positions and abhorrent causes of the day.  Root out the money and the forces behind it, and we go a long way to resolving many of our issues.

[John Hjorth]

33 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

And this is probably the most important question we should be asking.

 

In my opinion, my republican and democrat friends and neighbors are far more similar than different. We disagree on some things, but we get along, respect one another, and *gasp* even like each other most of the time.

 

Yet, the media literally lies and paints things in such an extreme light (well, fear and anger sells, doesn't it?) and does it's best to divide us, to play into our tribalistic nature. Our politicians are just as bad. I would argue if you took the average republican and democrat off the street, they would be far more similar to each other than the republican to his GOP senator or the democrat to his. Yet, these echo chambers exist, masking this reality.

 

This country is likely going to decline drastically, if not break apart. And we'll be able to trace it back to things like money in politics, corrupt and useless media, and politicians of the same nature who are in it not for the average person, but for money and loyalty to their shitty party.

 

Anyways, rant over.

 

20 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Yes, corruption is at the heart of the matter.  We need to ask ourselves where the money comes from to support all of the outlier positions and abhorrent causes of the day.  Root out the money and the forces behind it, and we go a long way to resolving many of our issues.

 

All while the concept of 'Money in Politics' has been mentioned by some earlier upsteam in this topic, the above is certainly still interesting food for thought, even for a European citizen and CofB&F member without any US voting rights, but still with a lot of American skin in the game, thank you.

[cubsfan]

46 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

 

And this is probably the most important question we should be asking.

 

In my opinion, my republican and democrat friends and neighbors are far more similar than different. We disagree on some things, but we get along, respect one another, and *gasp* even like each other most of the time.

 

Yet, the media literally lies and paints things in such an extreme light (well, fear and anger sells, doesn't it?) and does it's best to divide us, to play into our tribalistic nature. Our politicians are just as bad. I would argue if you took the average republican and democrat off the street, they would be far more similar to each other than the republican to his GOP senator or the democrat to his. Yet, these echo chambers exist, masking this reality.

 

This country is likely going to decline drastically, if not break apart. And we'll be able to trace it back to things like money in politics, corrupt and useless media, and politicians of the same nature who are in it not for the average person, but for money and loyalty to their shitty party.

 

Anyways, rant over.

 

And that's an excellent rant BTW.

 

It takes a huge amount of work to keep a multi-cultural society together, few other than the United States have been able to do it. Most break apart, so excellent point.

 

I think you may be underestimating the cultural strength of the United States. By restoring meritocracy instead of identity politics - it will happen. When you have blacks and hispanics fleeing to the Republican Party - you undertand that they wish, not to be demonized - and be judged NOT on the color of their skin.

[Malmqky]

11 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

All while the concept of 'Money in Politics' has been mentioned by some earlier upsteam in this topic, the above is certainly still interesting food for thought, even for a European citizen and CofB&F member without any US voting rights, but still with a lot of American skin in the game, thank you.

 

If you aren't familiar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_United_v._FEC

 

Repealing Citizens United and term limits for congress would go a long way in solving the money in politics problem. Same with banning congressional stock trading.

 

Obviously there'd be a lot more to do, but I think a majority would be on board with the above.

[Gregmal]

I mean let's get real here...the tribalistic rot is on full display even when it shouldn't be, and that keeps people locked. DC is a crime ridden shithole....Trump attempts to fix that...and they go "nope it's not that bad, martial law!"....NYC is a crime infested shithole with egregious tax policy and people are fleeing.....they go..."no it's not that bad and people aren't leaving".....the border was left open and taken advantage of by criminals until Trump shut it down and they go "nope, it wasn't that bad and its a complicated problem and both parties are at fault"......anywhere else you'd think this is comedy...which is why I simply refuse to believe anything other than the best explanation is that it is all just one big joke the elitists are playing on us. 

Edited August 13, 2025 by Gregmal

[John Hjorth]

8 minutes ago, Malmqky said:

If you aren't familiar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_United_v._FEC

 

Repealing Citizens United and term limits for congress would go a long way in solving the money in politics problem. Same with banning congressional stock trading.

 

Obviously there'd be a lot more to do, but I think a majority would be on board with the above.

 

Again, thank you very much for sharing, @Malmqky

[cubsfan]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

which is why I simply refuse to believe anything other than the best explanation is that it is all just one big joke the elitists are playing on us. 

 

For sure!  It's all about filling their pockets, while virtue signaling. 

No better example than Martha's Vineyard - as a sanctuary island - unless of course immigrants want to move in!

[John Hjorth]

54 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

... DC is a crime ridden shithole ... 

 

I have asked about exactly that in a post adressed to active CofB&F members living in DC, posted recently, earlier in this topic, for input on facts and personal perceptions and assessments, but unfortunately nobody so far has replied.

 

I have done myself the favor of looking up a video, presenting and documenting to me, what POTUS with a mic turned on actually said said on the matter.

 

The ways things have been presented in both US main stream media and also in news media on my side of the Atlantic pond I consider it a undeniable fact, that POTUS almost everywhere has been misquoted in a - let me call it -, severely biased way, at least. What he said about it actually made good sense to me, subject to his expressed perceptions of the state of things was correct. To me personally, it is what we here in Denmark call 'A storm in a glass of water', on here CofB&F, in best American style, [  ] it's called a 'nothing burger! [ , ]

 

Signed 'stingy John', still eager learn and know about new stuff!

 

*shrug* and *sigh*

Edited August 13, 2025 by John Hjorth

[dwy000]

31 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

I mean let's get real here...the tribalistic rot is on full display even when it shouldn't be, and that keeps people locked. DC is a crime ridden shithole....Trump attempts to fix that...and they go "nope it's not that bad, martial law!"....NYC is a crime infested shithole with egregious tax policy and people are fleeing.....they go..."no it's not that bad and people aren't leaving".....the border was left open and taken advantage of by criminals until Trump shut it down and they go "nope, it wasn't that bad and its a complicated problem and both parties are at fault"......anywhere else you'd think this is comedy...which is why I simply refuse to believe anything other than the best explanation is that it is all just one big joke the elitists are playing on us. 

Crime in NYC has been dropping consistently and its one of the safest large cities in the country.  And population has actually been growing which is why rents continue to be through the roof. 

[Gregmal]

10 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Crime in NYC has been dropping consistently and its one of the safest large cities in the country.  And population has actually been growing which is why rents continue to be through the roof. 

Yea, the last 12 months or so crime has come down after getting completely out of control due to awful policy. That’s not something to use as your excuse for the awful policy that got you there, but it’s what they did with the border too…oh we tried in 2024 to pass legislation and numbers are getting better!? Well…yea, after you ran on open borders in 2020 and created a mess!

 

And population? Well I guess if you guys are counting all the illegals youre stashing in once great hotels…sure. In terms of economics though driving away your legal, high earning individuals and businesses isn’t ideal either… bit like clockwork, we ll just pick our side and rationalize how it’s actually not bad but in fact ok.

[cubsfan]

15 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I have asked about exactly that in a post adressed to active CofB&F members living in DC, posted recently, earlier in this topic, for input on facts and personal perceptions and assessments, but unfortunately nobody so far has replied.

 

I have done myself the favor of looking up a video, presenting and documenting to me, what POTUS with a mic turned on actually said said on the matter.

 

The ways things have been presented in both US main stream media and also in news media on my side of the Atlantic pond I consider it a undeniable fact, that POTUS almost everwhere has been misquoted in a - let me call it -, severely biased way, at least. What he said about it actually made good sense to me, subject to his expressed perceptions of the state of things was correct.

 

*shrug* and *sigh*

 

DC has one of the highest murder rates in the country.