Political Posts

[Marco Van Basten]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Interesting fact- Israel fiscal deficit is 6.9% of GDP, about the same than ours and they are fighting a war.

https://tradingeconomics.com/israel/government-budget

Yes, I remember that Israel essentially did not have a budget deficit pre 2023 war with Hamas.  I looked into it due to my investment in Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange.  

[dwy000]

40 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Yes, I remember that Israel essentially did not have a budget deficit pre 2023 war with Hamas.  I looked into it due to my investment in Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange.  

Doesn't Israel have a flat 50% tax rate?  I'm sure that helps balance the budget. 

[coc]

On 6/18/2025 at 6:46 PM, ourkid8 said:

How about the innocent Palestinian who were murdered before Oct 7th by the Israeli government? It’s not like Israelis let the Palestinians live in peace and then Oct 7th happened and everything changed. 

 

I say this out of concern, I would leave this thread alone ourkid8. The discourse flourishing here around the Genocide is unforgiveable and (at this time) unchangeable, though I admire your trying. I suspect eventually Parsad may need to delete the whole thread, including for some of his own contributions. The Hasbarists will do their thing while they're riding high. Dark days, but not forever. 

[Marco Van Basten]

17 minutes ago, dwy000 said:

Doesn't Israel have a flat 50% tax rate?  I'm sure that helps balance the budget. 

No, it does not, it has a number of brackets.  Corporate I believe is 28%.  Keep in mind that there are no local/state income taxes in Israel, as opposed to US.  I am not an expert on Israel's taxation, let alone personal income tax, however: a) interest on certain bonds I believe is not taxed; b) capital gains taxation is quite complicated, but certainly way below 50% c) 50% tax rate does kick in at around USD 200K, however there are numerous loopholes.  For instance, a company provided car is not taxed, etc...

In addition, I was told that if someone moves to Israel, then their foreign income is not taxed for a decade.

Again however, I know very little about Israel's tax policies, let alone personal taxation.  

 

[73 Reds]

5 hours ago, Blake Hampton said:

Interest rates should never go up. They should be immediately lowered to zero and remain there forever.

 

Also, Trump has an economics degree from Wharton.

Hard to tell when you're serious but 0% interest rates make no sense and didn't even make sense to me in 2009.  Was the World really going to end because of the so-called financial crisis that oh-by-the-way was all induced by the banks and greedy mortgage industry?  Savers should never be punished and banks should not be rewarded with fee money.  

[LC]

18 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

If Donnie successfully achieves ceasefire about 48h after wrecking Iranian nuclear facilities, letting Israel let loose for ~12 days, massively weakening Iranian regime, he will have proved his mettle.

 

Guess it's time for the Nobel Peace Prize if it works out (would certainly be more deserved than the one Obama won), but of course European elites won't ever let that happen 

 

 

 

Ukraine? Stumped

Iran? Stumped

Tariffs? Stumped

Illegal deportations? Stumped

DOGE? Stumped

 

Stumpy taking L's left and right out there...being Potus ain't easy!

 

[RichardGibbons]

1 hour ago, coc said:

The discourse flourishing here around the Genocide is unforgiveable and (at this time) unchangeable, though I admire your trying.

 

I know it's cool with certain kids these days, but it isn't a good strategy to call something a genocide when it isn't. It's very obvious that if Israel wanted a genocide, at this point there wouldn't be a single Palestinian left alive in Gaza.

 

So, when you pretend that it is a genocide, you lose a lot of credibility with anyone sensible--people who might support many of the same goals, but basically dismiss you because they don't want to be associated with crazy.

 

I think I get why people do it--they want their cause to appear much larger and more important than it actually is. But in practice, it just dilutes the idea of genocide, and that's quite a bad thing, I think. It's good to have the word "genocide" actually mean what it does, so that when there's an actual genocide, people don't have to say, "no, this time I mean it. This is an actual genocide."

[coc]

5 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

I know it's cool with certain kids these days, but it isn't a good strategy to call something a genocide when it isn't. It's very obvious that if Israel wanted a genocide, at this point there wouldn't be a single Palestinian left alive in Gaza.

 

So, when you pretend that it is a genocide, you lose a lot of credibility with anyone sensible--people who might support many of the same goals, but basically dismiss you because they don't want to be associated with crazy.

 

I think I get why people do it--they want their cause to appear much larger and more important than it actually is. But in practice, it just dilutes the idea of genocide, and that's quite a bad thing, I think. It's good to have the word "genocide" actually mean what it does, so that when there's an actual genocide, people don't have to say, "no, this time I mean it. This is an actual genocide."

 

I'm sorry I wasn't clear enough. Please peddle your bullshit to someone else. I was speaking to @ourkid8

[Blake Hampton]

6 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

I know it's cool with certain kids these days, but it isn't a good strategy to call something a genocide when it isn't. It's very obvious that if Israel wanted a genocide, at this point there wouldn't be a single Palestinian left alive in Gaza.

 

So, when you pretend that it is a genocide, you lose a lot of credibility with anyone sensible--people who might support many of the same goals, but basically dismiss you because they don't want to be associated with crazy.

 

I think I get why people do it--they want their cause to appear much larger and more important than it actually is. But in practice, it just dilutes the idea of genocide, and that's quite a bad thing, I think. It's good to have the word "genocide" actually mean what it does, so that when there's an actual genocide, people don't have to say, "no, this time I mean it. This is an actual genocide."

 

I'd say starving a quarter of an entire country's population borders pretty close to genocide:

 

"The entire 2.1 million population of Gaza is facing prolonged food shortages, with nearly half a million people in a catastrophic situation of hunger, acute malnutrition, starvation, illness and death. This is one of the world’s worst hunger crises, unfolding in real time."

 

WHO: People in Gaza starving, sick and dying as aid blockade continues

 

Edited June 24, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[RichardGibbons]

1 minute ago, coc said:

 

I'm sorry I wasn't clear enough. Please peddle your bullshit to someone else. I was speaking to @ourkid8

 

No, you weren't. You were posting on a message board, not sending a private message.  Good luck!

[RichardGibbons]

4 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

I'd say starving a quarter of an entire country's population borders pretty close to genocide:

 

I mean, your source says Israel is supplying food aid. If they're committing genocide through starvation, they're really doing it backwards and are quite incompetent.

 

There is a difference between genocide and horrific side-effects of war.

[Blake Hampton]

1 minute ago, RichardGibbons said:

I mean, your source says Israel is supplying food aid. If they're committing genocide through starvation, they're really doing it backwards and are quite incompetent.

 

There is a difference between genocide and horrific side-effects of war.

 

Slippery slope there.

Maybe the Einsatzgruppen were simply "horrific side-effects of war."

[RichardGibbons]

Yeah, I don't think it's actually slippery. It only becomes slippery if people start claiming all sorts of horrible but non-genocidal things are genocide.

[RichardGibbons]

That said, I'm cool with the term "cultural genocide", to refer to the things like what Canada attempted to do to its Indigenous people.  I think that's a meaningful and useful derivation on the word "genocide". 

[changegonnacome]

19 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

If Donnie successfully achieves ceasefire about 48h after wrecking Iranian nuclear facilities, letting Israel let loose for ~12 days, massively weakening Iranian regime, he will have proved his mettle.

 

Agree - outstanding result if he can pull it off.

 

Edited June 24, 2025 by changegonnacome

[changegonnacome]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Interesting fact- Israel fiscal deficit is 6.9% of GDP

Wild

[Marco Van Basten]

32 minutes ago, RichardGibbons said:

 

No, you weren't. You were posting on a message board, not sending a private message.  Good luck!

Just put coc on ignore, that's what I did.  He contributes nothing to the investment ideas, and instead just insults people.   

[changegonnacome]

On 6/22/2025 at 1:57 PM, changegonnacome said:

Even if the US destroyed 95% of Iran's 15,000 centrifuges last night (a hugely successful outcome by any military standard) I can assure you that is not enough centrifugal capacity destruction to stop 60% uranium going to 90% in a sufficient quantities for a bomb in a relatively short period of time.

 

The other piece of 4D chess one should begin to consider now is what is Bibi's next move as the Prime Minister of Israel?....its almost as important as what Ayatollah Khamenei does under the catergory of what the USA's exposure is here now.

 

If I was Bibi, with the bit between my teeth and the United States pot committed in actions and principle to a no nuclear Iran.....I would now use all my perasauve powers & not a little threat inflation to make the following case >

 

 - that while the B-2 bombing last night was successful at degrading Iran's nuclear capability that it still remains in place (as per my point above - 60% enriched uranium stockpile plus a few hundred undamaged centrifuges remaining equals a viable nuclear threat)

 

- in fact I would argue, as I just have, that the regime are now more determined than ever to get a bomb and so in fact the nuclear threat instead of being diminished by the B-2 bombings last night has actually, in reality,  greatly increased.

 

So predictable......."obliterated" meant the entrances got damaged......

 

Strike Set Back Iran’s Nuclear Program by Only a Few Months, U.S. Report Says

Classified findings indicate that the attack sealed off the entrances to two facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/us/politics/iran-nuclear-sites.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

[changegonnacome]

On 6/22/2025 at 1:57 PM, changegonnacome said:

Iran's nuclear capability that it still remains in place (as per my point above - 60% enriched uranium stockpile plus a few hundred undamaged centrifuges remaining equals a viable nuclear threat)

 

- in fact I would argue if I was Bibi, as I just have, that the regime are now more determined than ever to get a bomb and so in fact the nuclear threat instead of being diminished by the B-2 bombings last night has actually, in reality,  greatly increased.

 

Bibi is gonna have a field day with this intelligence report.......its a perfect outcome for his full on regime change aspirations....Trump/US pot committed in principle and action via bombing (that failed to stop the nuclear program) and which will inevitably require further commitments.

 

Trump's error was to explicitly and publicly agree with Bibi stance that Iran was headed for bomb immentitily and something had to be done about it.......Trump miscalculation was that he thought he could be one and done with a few B-2 bombs.....the reality of the situation is much more complex......they have 60% enriched uranium stockpiles.....and they have the knowledge on how to build centrifuges (but based on this report they don't even need that).....regardless they have the centrifuge knowhow....... .....they have the rockets knowhow.......and the last I checked you can't bomb knowhow with B-2 bunker busters.

 

"We were -- knee deep in the Big Muddy,
But the big fool said to push on."

 

 

 

[Grenville]

However you want to label it, the stuff that’s happening to the folks in Gaza sucks and ain’t right…here it doesn’t seem like there is much sympathy/empathy for them. Maybe I am reading it wrong but seems like folks think they (folks in Gaza) have brought on what’s happening to them based on their past choices…

[73 Reds]

39 minutes ago, Grenville said:

However you want to label it, the stuff that’s happening to the folks in Gaza sucks and ain’t right…here it doesn’t seem like there is much sympathy/empathy for them. Maybe I am reading it wrong but seems like folks think they (folks in Gaza) have brought on what’s happening to them based on their past choices…

You are reading it wrong.  They are victims of their own oppressors but not of Israeli genocide.  That is an inconvenient fact that does not meet the narrative of antisemites, ignorant haters and politically motivated media whose agenda is all but destroying it.

[Gregmal]

51 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Bibi is gonna have a field day with this intelligence report.......its a perfect outcome for his full on regime change aspirations....Trump/US pot committed in principle and action via bombing (that failed to stop the nuclear program) and which will inevitably require further commitments.

 

Trump's error was to explicitly and publicly agree with Bibi stance that Iran was headed for bomb immentitily and something had to be done about it.......Trump miscalculation was that he thought he could be one and done with a few B-2 bombs.....the reality of the situation is much more complex......they have 60% enriched uranium stockpiles.....and they have the knowledge on how to build centrifuges (but based on this report they don't even need that).....regardless they have the centrifuge knowhow....... .....they have the rockets knowhow.......and the last I checked you can't bomb knowhow with B-2 bunker busters.

 

"We were -- knee deep in the Big Muddy,
But the big fool said to push on."

 

 

 

LOL you do realize that there's literally reports everywhere, from many different sources, stating everything from "nothing happened" to "the sites are destroyed", with many in between at "set the program back a good bit"...glad you found the one that fits the narrative you always run with!

[73 Reds]

11 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

LOL you do realize that there's literally reports everywhere, from many different sources, stating everything from "nothing happened" to "the sites are destroyed", with many in between at "set the program back a good bit"...glad you found the one that fits the narrative you always run with!

And the truth is, it really doesn't matter.  Iran is essentially helpless to defend itself.  If nuclear capabilities remain, they will be discovered and destroyed in round 2, 3 or beyond.  Lies and manipulation by Iran will only result in more death and damage but won't change the ultimate outcome.  Amazing how few people are willing or able recognize this reality.

[dwy000]

22 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

And the truth is, it really doesn't matter.  Iran is essentially helpless to defend itself.  If nuclear capabilities remain, they will be discovered and destroyed in round 2, 3 or beyond.  Lies and manipulation by Iran will only result in more death and damage but won't change the ultimate outcome.  Amazing how few people are willing or able recognize this reality.

Are you saying the US armed forces will go back in again (2 or 3 more times)?  Despite there being a ceasefire. 

[changegonnacome]

45 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

LOL you do realize that there's literally reports everywhere, from many different sources

 

45 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

you found the one that fits the narrative

 

Your lumping of sources into one generic bucket........is a false equivalency @Gregmal..........there is a substantial difference in both resources, sources and methods and journalistic standards between say the New York times and I dunno some anon account on X or Breibart news......I guess you might call them all "sources" but they really aren't the same thing.....in the same way that a Ferrari and a Toyota corolla aren't really the same thing (but I guess are both cars).

 

You might not like to hear it cause it doesn't fit your narrative but the New York times along with the Washington Post remain the gold standard in journalistic fidelity.......do they get it right all the time - hell no - do they have a bias.....you bet they do ......but in a world where you cant be a full time citizen journalist and so have to rely on the 'news sources' from somewhere.....on balance even with biases and mistakes I'm going to go with the well resourced newsroom where the Editor ensures the information is coming from high level sources in the Government who could actually have knowledge of the matter in question and that the same editor waits to run the story until a second unrelated NYT's source confirms the same thing.

 

But dont take my word for it........what papers moves the market the most?......maybe the ones you dont like or dont agree with their biases......but they move markets versus say the NYPost's relative inabilty to move markets.....because the NYT/WSJ/CNN are whether you like it or not, on average, the most likely to be bringing you a version of reality that comports most closely with reality (imperfect as they are).

 

So on the balance of paobabitlies from various contemporaneous sources on the extent of the damage done by this attack as of today June 24th...........I can assure you (as of today) the New York Times has the highest probability of being proved accurate hence my putting some stock in it.....but again I'd like to see some additional confirmations too which will be incoming soon....not by the President....who is likely to say this is fake.....but by underlyings who will dance around it afraid to piss off Trump....but who by what they dont say....will give an accurate take on the damage.......

 

On a scale of Trump's "obliterated"...........to the New York times.....entrance damaged.....I'm leaning towards the NYT's having a more accurate take on this.

Edited June 24, 2025 by changegonnacome