Political Posts

[Sweet]

4 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

It’s always funny hearing economists say all Tariffs are bad and all free trade is good. They never consider the tails for one: if the U.S. can’t build ships anymore. If China manipulates its currency and engages in massive subsidizing of its export industries.

 

You almost never hear economists, pundits, etc talk about these manipulations that China has engaged in everyday for the last 2-3 decades.

100%.  China has been doing all this for years.  They were given a pass because it was this ‘opening up China’ strategy by Kissinger et al.  They believed that if China made its markets free China might become free too.  The gambit failed.

[Dalal.Holdings]

5 minutes ago, Sweet said:

100%.  China has been doing all this for years.  They were given a pass because it was this ‘opening up China’ strategy by Kissinger et al.  They believed that if China made its markets free China might become free too.  The gambit failed.

Yep and now you’re seeing even the “pro-trade” Europeans freak out over China which stole their IP, heavily subsidized their auto/solar/batteries/etc, and now are on track to devastate European auto industry. Now with U.S. tariffs, they’re all freaking out that China will “dump” its goods on their markets.

 

China has gotten away with too many abuses. Trade with China has never been “fair” or “free”.

[Blake Hampton]

"If he can keep forty-seven thousand spinning plates in the air, nobody can focus on any one of them."
— Mary Trump, Too Much and Never Enough

[Blake Hampton]

^ That book is not very good

[nwoodman]

I have been reading Miran’s “user guide” on the flight to Toronto.  The thesis is actually quite sound but with the caveat that it requires incredibly careful execution, diplomatic finesse, and institutional coordination — all of which are in short supply under a populist, confrontational presidency.  Even if he is not the most characteristic guy, I think Miran does a much better job of explaining than Trump but more importantly Lutnick.  
 

 

Final Evaluation: Miran’s User’s Guide rationally supports a coherent post-globalization strategy in theory – combining tariffs and currency policy to force fairer burden-sharing – and it provides a toolkit to do so. The Trump administration is embracing the toolkit (especially tariffs) but runs the risk of misapplying it by neglecting the careful balancing acts emphasized in the paper. The plan can succeed only if pursued as an integrated, flexible strategy rather than a one-dimensional trade war. Both proponents and critics can find ammunition in this analysis:

Pro-Strategy Argument: The current global trade arrangement unfairly disadvantages the U.S.; this plan offers a way to correct course, restore industrial competitiveness, and make allies and rivals alike contribute their fair share. It uses leverage the U.S. uniquely has and can do so without domestic harm if executed wisely (as 2018–19 showed). Overvaluation and imbalances are unsustainable; better to address them on U.S. terms now than face uncontrolled crises later.

 

Against-Strategy Argument: The plan gambles with the global economic order. It could provoke retaliation, drive away allies, and destabilize financial markets. Legal unilateralism might isolate the U.S. and weaken the very system that underpins its financial power. The assumptions of smooth currency offset and limited retaliation may not hold at larger scales, risking inflation or recession at home. There are also moral and geopolitical costs to aggressive tariffs on poor nations and coercive tactics on allies, potentially ceding leadership to others in the long run.  His own words:

”There is a path by which the Trump Administration can reconfigure the global trading and financial systems to America's benefit, but it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences.”

 

It’s not the only way to achieve rebalancing but it is credible.

Edited April 6, 2025 by nwoodman

[Spekulatius]

Free trade is not the goal, since it won’t balance the  US trade balance. It’s what the administration calls Fair trade, but unlike the cute little shops, extortion will be needed to get customer to buy in. I guess one flavor could be a connect Mar de Largo deal, but who knows.

 

Futures down another 4% as I type this. Ok they own the liberals, but not much more.

Edited April 6, 2025 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

21 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

^ That book is not very good

Can’t be worse  that the Art or the deal. I bought it in the 90’s in thrift store in Germany for 1DM (~50c). All I really took away from the book that Trump was full of himself.

[John Hjorth]

57 minutes ago, LC said:

Trump tariffs in a nutshell: short-term thinking that destroys long-term American assets.

 

Trump administration orders half of national forests open for logging

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/04/05/trump-administration-orders-half-national-forests-open-logging/

 

And as a bonus, it comes with the standard Trump-rationale: high-school level thinking which experts dispute:

Rollins added that, of the land that fell under the directive, almost 67 million acres were determined to be at a “very high” or “high” wildfire risk, and almost 79 million acres were experiencing “declining forest health” from insects and disease.

But forestry experts often suggest the removal of undergrowth that doesn’t yield timber, and they warned during similar efforts in Trump’s first term that you can’t log your way out of fire danger...Removing large, fire-resistant trees also gives way to young trees that are more susceptible to fires.

 

In other words, this does nothing to prevent forest fires (only YOU can do that!)
It will serve to destroy a long-lived asset
And it is only 'necessary' because of value-destructive tariffs on lumber producing (ex-)partners

 

@LC,

 

Especially for you, because you appear interested and seem to care : Holmen AB - Future-Smart Forests. [Holmen AB website].

 

Such businesses plan sometimes for a century a head!

 

There are people with noble intentions among other places in California, who dedicate their spare time to make up for near fatal decisions made almost a century ago, who will never really enjoy the outcome of their hard work, perhaps their grandchildren will : Save the Redwoods website.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Dumb, dumber, Trumpest.

[Parsad]

7 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

You just lost a regular reader during many years, as of yesterday, effective from here, because of what happened here on CofB&F yesterday. I don't even bother to press the report button.

 

6 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

I never used the "report button" once on this site. The difference between you and me.

 

C'mon guys!  You two know you love each other...be friends again!  

 

I recommend both of you watch "The Apprentice", which I watched last night.  Before anyone lambasts it as liberal propaganda, you should watch.  I kind of understand Trump a bit better...God he's so funny (unintentionally)...Sebastien Stan provides a balanced, nuanced performance.  

 

It might make Cubs wonder (ok, maybe Trump not so good) and John say (ok, I kind of understand why Cubs will defend this guy with his life).  Cheers!

[aws]

Bill Ackman realizing Trump is not the brilliant tactician he thought he was:

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yR1QL7CJltQ

[Parsad]

49 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

It’s always funny hearing economists say all Tariffs are bad and all free trade is good. They never consider the tails for one: if the U.S. can’t build ships anymore. If China manipulates its currency and engages in massive subsidizing of its export industries.

 

You almost never hear economists, pundits, etc talk about these manipulations that China has engaged in everyday for the last 2-3 decades.

 

True!  But are you really interested in flogging your own children because your neighbor has been tapping into your cable for a decade?  That's essentially what you are doing.  Cheers!

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, aws said:

Bill Ackman realizing Trump is not the brilliant tactician he thought he was:

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yR1QL7CJltQ

 

Bill Ackman is not the brilliant tactician he thinks he is!  Cheers!

[cubsfan]

The absolute dumbest people in America are the leaders in California.

 

They embrace climate change, but burn down massive amounts of trees with reckless forest policies.  They dump tons of carbon in the air in their quest to "save the forests" by not clearing underbrush and flushing fresh water out to the ocean. No thinning of the forests or removal of chaparrals in the driest forests we have. 

 

Absolute climate change idiots.

 

The country can use those forests for lumbers since there are billions of trees in the USA - but CA won't cut them down, they'd rather see them burn down.

 

 

Edited April 6, 2025 by cubsfan

[Parsad]

Just now, cubsfan said:

The absolute dumbest people in America are the leaders in California.

 

They embrace climate change, but burn down massive amounts of trees with reckless forest policies.  They dump tons of carbon in the air in their quest to "save the forests" by not clearing underbrush and flushing fresh water out to the ocean. No thinning of the forests or removal of chaparrals in the driest forests we have. 

 

Absolute climate change idiots.

 

 

 

Who the hell brought up California?  No one.  What does green policies combined with inadequate forest policies have to do with tariffs?  

 

Go back to talking about tariffs.  Cheers!

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

 

C'mon guys!  You two know you love each other...be friends again!  

 

I recommend both of you watch "The Apprentice", which I watched last night.  Before anyone lambasts it as liberal propaganda, you should watch.  I kind of understand Trump a bit better...God he's so funny (unintentionally)...Sebastien Stan provides a balanced, nuanced performance.  

 

It might make Cubs wonder (ok, maybe Trump not so good) and John say (ok, I kind of understand why Cubs will defend this guy with his life).  Cheers!

 

You're a wonderful man @Parsad

 

Maybe your coming over to my side???

[Spekulatius]

@nwoodman Yes, Stephen Miran is the master mind behind was Trump does. I think Bessent really didn’t know what he went into (at least the tariff part) and Lutnick is in way over his head.

 

The plan proposed by Miran is a gamble even team that knows what it’s doing and yen current administration doesn’t even follow the proposed order much less the finesse needed to execute this.

I wonder what Trump will do, if this blows up, which I think is what’s seems to be happening right now. My guess is he will blame it on Biden and declare another emergency and double up on power grab to fix the problems he just created.

 

It’s like COVID-19 but the virus resides in the White House.

 

 

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, cubsfan said:

 

You're a wonderful man @Parsad

 

Maybe your coming over to my side???

 

Sorry Cubs, like my father before me, I'm a Liberal with a capital "L".  You will never be able to turn me to the dark side!  Apologies to George Lucas!  Cheers!

[Dalal.Holdings]

6 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

True!  But are you really interested in flogging your own children because your neighbor has been tapping into your cable for a decade?  That's essentially what you are doing.  Cheers!

People would be saying this even if there were just 10% tariffs put on China. If your country can’t build ships anymore and their rival can, your kids will be far worse off than a metaphorical “flogging”

[nwoodman]

9 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Free trade is not the goal, since it won’t balance the  US trade balance. It’s what the administration calls Fair trade, but unlike the cute little shops, extortion will be needed to get customer to buy in. I guess one flavor could be a connect Mar de Largo deal, but who knows.

 

Futures down another 4% as I type this. Ok they own the liberals, but not much more.

True, the notion of “fair trade” flips the entire post-WTO framework on its head. The  problem is, enforcing “fairness” in this model requires leverage, and that increasingly looks like extortion and coercion. The irony is, the U.S. helped build the post-WWII system precisely to avoid this kind of transactional coercion. WTO rules, MFN status, binding arbitration — all of it was designed to prevent the strongest country from throwing its weight around unilaterally. It’s been fraying for a while though and the ‘China shock’ has put it into overdrive.  I always figured that demographics would take care of China.

 

 

[Parsad]

Just now, Dalal.Holdings said:

People would be saying this even if there were just 10% tariffs put on China. If your country can’t build ships anymore and their rival can, your kids will be far worse off than a metaphorical “flogging”

 

I disagree with this.  If the world is building ships, but you are building the best technology companies in the world, I'm not sure the world has the advantage here.  It's why AI dominance is so important. 

 

Almost 95% of the textile business is outside of the United States...would you rather have the entire world's textiles business come back to the U.S. or Google?  I would take Google any day of the week!  Cheers! 

[dwy000]

25 minutes ago, nwoodman said:

I have been reading Miran’s “user guide” on the flight to Toronto.  The thesis is actually quite sound but with the caveat that it requires incredibly careful execution, diplomatic finesse, and institutional coordination — all of which are in short supply under a populist, confrontational presidency.  Even if he is not the most characteristic guy, I think Miran does a much better job of explaining than Trump but more importantly Lutnick.  
 

 

Final Evaluation: Miran’s User’s Guide rationally supports a coherent post-globalization strategy in theory – combining tariffs and currency policy to force fairer burden-sharing – and it provides a toolkit to do so. The Trump administration is embracing the toolkit (especially tariffs) but runs the risk of misapplying it by neglecting the careful balancing acts emphasized in the paper. The plan can succeed only if pursued as an integrated, flexible strategy rather than a one-dimensional trade war. Both proponents and critics can find ammunition in this analysis:

Pro-Strategy Argument: The current global trade arrangement unfairly disadvantages the U.S.; this plan offers a way to correct course, restore industrial competitiveness, and make allies and rivals alike contribute their fair share. It uses leverage the U.S. uniquely has and can do so without domestic harm if executed wisely (as 2018–19 showed). Overvaluation and imbalances are unsustainable; better to address them on U.S. terms now than face uncontrolled crises later.

 

Against-Strategy Argument: The plan gambles with the global economic order. It could provoke retaliation, drive away allies, and destabilize financial markets. Legal unilateralism might isolate the U.S. and weaken the very system that underpins its financial power. The assumptions of smooth currency offset and limited retaliation may not hold at larger scales, risking inflation or recession at home. There are also moral and geopolitical costs to aggressive tariffs on poor nations and coercive tactics on allies, potentially ceding leadership to others in the long run

 

It’s not the only way to achieve rebalancing but it is credible.

I didnt watch all the way through but this was like having a consultant talk to you.  Tons of talking with lots of buzzwords and absolutely nothing of substance. 

 

His argument for tariffs is the "reindustrialization of America" and saying that trade policy isn't fair.  Nobody is investing hundreds of $bns to reindustrialize based on policy that will change in 3 years, 3 months or 3 weeks. And do we really want to manufacture shoes and t-shirts instead of putting that investment into software, AI, health and quantum computing?

 

And he ties it to the tax cuts. So effectively we are putting a consumption tax in place to fund income tax cuts. What was that about benefitting the middle class again?

 

Punishing American consumers for decades of other countries feeding our addiction to cheap goods is not a long term fix 

[dwy000]

8 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

@nwoodman Yes, Stephen Miran is the master mind behind was Trump does. I think Bessent really didn’t know what he went into (at least the tariff part) and Lutnick is in way over his head.

 

The plan proposed by Miran is a gamble even team that knows what it’s doing and yen current administration doesn’t even follow the proposed order much less the finesse needed to execute this.

I wonder what Trump will do, if this blows up, which I think is what’s seems to be happening right now. My guess is he will blame it on Biden and declare another emergency and double up on power grab to fix the problems he just created.

 

It’s like COVID-19 but the virus resides in the White House.

 

 

My guess is most of it goes away because he gets a reduction in the tariffs from countries that don't (and will never) buy goods from us and he will play it as a master stroke of negotiations. The market will soar.because its over and he hopes they forget the turmoil it caused for no gain. 

[Dalal.Holdings]

13 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

I disagree with this.  If the world is building ships, but you are building the best technology companies in the world, I'm not sure the world has the advantage here.  It's why AI dominance is so important. 

 

Almost 95% of the textile business is outside of the United States...would you rather have the entire world's textiles business come back to the U.S. or Google?  I would take Google any day of the week!  Cheers! 

That’s wrong. Ships are highly critical for national defense and take decades to build out infrastructure to create a viable shipbuilding industry.
 

China has replicated U.S. AI capabilities overnight with Deepseek without free access to Nvidia GPUs. Whatever edge U.S. companies seemingly had with AI evaporated overnight.

 

Technology is easily replicable for China as it has shown with stolen IP over and over again.

 

Building ships, tanks, etc from the raw materials and layers and layers of supply chains (“the machine that builds the machine”) is not something that can be done overnight. Once a country loses the ability to do something like that, it becomes near impossible to regain it, especially in times of crisis and war.

 

 

 

Edited April 6, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[cubsfan]

19 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

That’s wrong. Ships are highly critical for national defense and take decades to build out infrastructure to create a viable shipbuilding industry.

China has replicated U.S. AI capabilities overnight with Deepseek without free access to Nvidia GPUs. Whatever edge U.S. companies seemingly had with AI evaporated overnight.

Technology is easily replicable for China as it has shown with stolen IP over and over again.

 

Building ships, tanks, etc from the raw materials and layers and layers of supply chains (“the machine that builds the machine”) is not something that can be done overnight. Once a country loses the ability to do something like that, it becomes near impossible to regain it, especially in times of crisis and war.

 

Great post.

Edited April 6, 2025 by cubsfan

[Blake Hampton]

Futures already down 5%+