Political Posts

[73 Reds]

9 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I'm surprised how bad oil is getting whacked right now. I'm still in love with the stuff but wow.

Why is this surprising?  More importantly does this have any bearing on the future price of oil and the dynamics that drive supply and demand?  Your instincts on the value (not current price) of oil are probably correct.

[Eldad]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

So Trump shut down the economy?  Not where I lived but that's a good one.  Shoulda/Woulda/Coulda is simply an excuse.  My recollection is the World was in panic and Trump did everything possible NOT to shut everything down.  

Yes he fought somewhat harder than most but still doesn’t absolve him of a horrible mistake that happened on his watch. 

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, Eldad said:

Yes he fought somewhat harder than most but still doesn’t absolve him of a horrible mistake that happened on his watch. 

Horrible mistake?  What would you have done Mr. Kemosahbee?

[Gregmal]

8 minutes ago, Spooky said:

I'm already buying haha

Yea I mean we’ve seen, well those of us who’ve been around awhile, how everything gets panic tossed and it only takes a few days of macro declines where individual stuff does 2/3/4x the index direction and that’s where you get your opportunity. It’s just all gotta lineup. That’s where the hallmarks start coming in. The CNBC Markets in Turmoil specials and the broken clocks looking for their “I called it moment” is typically when I like to start getting busy.

[Eldad]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Horrible mistake?  What would you have done Mr. Kemosahbee?

What Sweden did, nothing. Mortality rate was the same no economy shut down. 
 

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Eldad said:

What Sweden did, nothing. Mortality rate was the same no economy shut down. 
 

You can blame Trump for a lot of things; shutting down the economy certainly isn’t one of them. Those were all governor calls, and we can never forget whom was responsible for doing that to people. One of the biggest reasons I’m leaving NJ.

[73 Reds]

5 minutes ago, Eldad said:

What Sweden did, nothing. Mortality rate was the same no economy shut down. 
 

Really?  How many people were traveling in and out of Sweden?  

[Eldad]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

You can blame Trump for a lot of things; shutting down the economy certainly isn’t one of them. Those were all governor calls, and we can never forget whom was responsible for doing that to people. One of the biggest reasons I’m leaving NJ.

Then they should have dealt with the fall out. No PPP from Trump. Some times you have to do the right thing and not worry about re-election. He lost that one anyway. You can’t just spend 5 Trillion on the flu and say you couldn’t help it. 

[Milu]

23 minutes ago, Spooky said:

I'm already buying haha

For me I have 30% cash , portfolio is still down 13% .
 

I do live for these times though, take a little bit of a sick pleasure at the panic going on around me. 
 

S&P is still only down 8.5% year to date about maybe 13% peak to trough. Not exactly end of days stuff yet.

[Spekulatius]

I think we are going to see a lot of distress in retail. I’m don’t think they know what to do with this tariff whipsaws. Imagine ordering a boat load of stuff and while that stuff is in transit the prices go up 50% due to tariffs.

 

Or you have warehouses full of  stuff when tariffs are on and then Trump and tariffs get cancelled ? You wont get the tariffs back and are screwed with overvalued inventory that you need to sell at a loss.

This is the stuff that gives supply chain managers nightmares.

 

I ordered a piece of high purity machined copper yesterday and the supplier told me that is the last part they sell at fixed

price.  Reason is rapidly fluctuating piece  and tariffs. The next order will be based on floating commodity prices as is usual with precious metals.

 

Fun times.

 

[Gregmal]

3 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Then they should have dealt with the fall out. No PPP from Trump. Some times you have to do the right thing and not worry about re-election. He lost that one anyway. You can’t just spend 5 Trillion on the flu and say you couldn’t help it. 

Ok so then say that. That’s fair. Claiming he shut down the country when clearly that was an act of sabotage, arguably even terrorism, by blue state governors…is something totally different. 

[Eldad]

5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Really?  How many people were traveling in and out of Sweden?  

Almost all subsequent studies show all lockdown measures had a big fat zero effect on mortality rate. Emails show Fauci knew masks did nothing as early as Spring of 2020. One of the biggest mistakes maybe in American history was the US response to Covid and Trump was the top guy. 

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Spekulatius said:

I think we are going to see a lot of distress in retail. I’m don’t think they know what to do with this tariff whipsaws. Imagine ordering a boat load of stuff and while that stuff is in transit the prices go up 50% due to tariffs.

 

Or you have warehouses full of  stuff when tariffs are on and then Trump and tariffs get cancelled ? You wont get the tariffs back and are screwed with overvalued inventory that you need to sell at a loss.

This is the stuff that gives supply chain managers nightmares.

 

I ordered a piece of high purity machined copper yesterday and the supplier told me that is the last part they sell at fixed

price.  Reason is rapidly fluctuating piece  and tariffs. The next order will be based on floating commodity prices as is usual with precious metals.

 

Fun times.

 

Yea commodity prices are an interesting element to the equation. Most are doing their best retail stock impressions right now. 

[Spekulatius]

Don’t we have more interior things to discuss than this 5 year old COVID-19 crap?

Its not like nothing is happening and the disruption we are seeing now are not that dissimilar In term of trade and supply chains.

[Blake Hampton]

[Eldad]

6 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Don’t we have more interior things to discuss than this 5 year old COVID-19 crap?

Its not like nothing is happening and the disruption we are seeing now are not that dissimilar In term of trade and supply chains.

Correct. Sorry. Waste of time. Still gets me pissed. 

[73 Reds]

7 minutes ago, Eldad said:

Almost all subsequent studies show all lockdown measures had a big fat zero effect on mortality rate. Emails show Fauci knew masks did nothing as early as Spring of 2020. One of the biggest mistakes maybe in American history was the US response to Covid and Trump was the top guy. 

Isn't hindsight a beautiful thing?   Doing nothing as you suggest, in the wake of thousands of people getting sick and dying every day was not an option.  Yet in my home state (Florida) which has a population more than twice the size of Sweden, we were "shut down" for about as long as it took to blink.  Blaming Trump for shutdowns ignores the fact that local governments determined how restrictive life was on their respective citizens.  Florida's economy did just fine, thank you.  Others, not so well.

[Eldad]

1 minute ago, 73 Reds said:

Isn't hindsight a beautiful thing?   Doing nothing as you suggest, in the wake of thousands of people getting sick and dying every day was not an option.  Yet in my home state (Florida) which has a population more than twice the size of Sweden, we were "shut down" for about as long as it took to blink.  Blaming Trump for shutdowns ignores the fact that local governments determined how restrictive life was on their respective citizens.  Florida's economy did just fine, thank you.  Others, not so well.

I think we mostly agree on this. I’m just saying he ultimately signed the bills that grew the national debt by 50% that accomplished nothing in the end. So he made a colossal mistake in hindsight.
 

Now let’s find some cheap stuff to buy. 

[73 Reds]

Just now, Eldad said:

I think we mostly agree on this. I’m just saying he ultimately signed the bills that grew the national debt by 50% that accomplished nothing in the end. So he made a colossal mistake in hindsight.
 

Now let’s find some cheap stuff to buy. 

He did the prudent thing under the circumstances.  I don't have an agenda but have a hard time understanding those that do.

[Ulti]

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/will-careless-stupidity-kill-the
 

Trump an company might have used ai generated tariff numbers.. brilliant 

 

[Eldad]

9 hours ago, sleepydragon said:

https://faculty.washington.edu/ss1110/IF/Buffett Fortune 2003 (6).pdf

 

Thanks. Great stuff. 
 

How long before we have to start printing Squanderbucks to buy Squanderbonds? 

[Sweet]

Trump retweeted this:

 

 

[Gregmal]

It’s also just in general important to remember to be patient, as stocks are a long term asset, and not be wowed by sensationalism or volatility. For all the “pays to panic” stuff that honestly only seems intelligent during these sort of episodes, I leave you this. In February 2020 I indeed was wowed a little by a few people whom I respect about “the coming dangers of COVID”….I sold some longer term holdings, like BX, CIBR, etc to raise some cash. Today, my payoff is that I felt decent for a grand total of like 6-8 weeks, and those 6-8 weeks of “feelings” cost me quite a bit financially both in terms of taxes payable, and fortune gains forfeited, when I woulda been better off just sitting on my ass. 

[73 Reds]

3 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

It’s also just in general important to remember to be patient, as stocks are a long term asset, and not be wowed by sensationalism or volatility. For all the “pays to panic” stuff that honestly only seems intelligent during these sort of episodes, I leave you this. In February 2020 I indeed was wowed a little by a few people whom I respect about “the coming dangers of COVID”….I sold some longer term holdings, like BX, CIBR, etc to raise some cash. Today, my payoff is that I felt decent for a grand total of like 6-8 weeks, and those 6-8 weeks of “feelings” cost me quite a bit financially both in terms of taxes payable, and fortune gains forfeited, when I woulda been better off just sitting on my ass. 

Yup.  Trading in and out with non-taxable funds is a question of risk/reward but when you throw taxes into the mix, the costs are higher and chances of being right rather than sitting tight are that much worse.   Your 6-8 weeks often becomes many months or even years for a lot of folks.  Hardly worth it.

[Paarslaars]

Yeah this will blow over in a few months, just hurts a bit now when sitting on leaps.  

Glad bitcoin is holding up formidably.

 

That said, this might be the time to sell out of some things holding up well in order to buy things getting hit hard?

Edited April 4, 2025 by Paarslaars