Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

So the idea is that any nuclear weapon nation can invade and take over any other nation just because they can 'fall back' on a nuclear strike? 

 

Pretty much. If nuclear black mail works, it will work too on the US as well and North Korea and Iran are surely are watching.

 

Putin changing its nuclear doctrine for example is laughable. Putin could have triggered a nuclear strike at any time already. He pretty much has absolute power. The only doctrine there is that Putin does whatever he wants in Russia.

Its the west job to prevent him from doing whatever he wants elsewhere.

[formthirteen]

4 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Putin changing its nuclear doctrine for example is laughable. Putin could have triggered a nuclear strike at any time already. He pretty much has absolute power. The only doctrine there is that Putin does whatever he wants in Russia.

 

My thoughts exactly. Russia and China are simply testing the waters to see how weak the Western and Asian pipelines, cables, leadership, etc are. A simple strategy that has historically worked well in Europe and Asia. The weaker the leadership, the more pain they can inflict. History repeats.

[cubsfan]

8 hours ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

So the idea is that any nuclear weapon nation can invade and take over any other nation just because they can 'fall back' on a nuclear strike? 

 

 

No - the idea here is this:  The missiles being fired into Russia are a very sophisticated American missile system. Therefore, it's likely manned by Americans or European NATO members. That is a big step. You have no idea how Putin will respond, even though he said nuclear weapons are now on the table.

 

You're crossing the line where Europeans/American troops may have to get involved in the case of a strike.  If that is what you desire - go right ahead.

 

This war is being lost by Ukraine - and it's time to settle with Putin - unless you want hundreds of thousands more killed.  You have an American President who refuses to talk to Putin. That is a very bad sign and is not going to end well. This war should have been settled 2 years ago when Ukraine had the upper hand. Now you are just throwing lives away.

 

[cubsfan]

9 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Mike, [ @cubsfan ],

 

If the above exchange between us is guiding for what's going to happen from here, as described by you above,  it's just totally devastating for us Europeans what's in the works, and about what's to happen, and we'll also - on top of that - loose a very important friend, for the future.

 

For your part, [likely - at least for you, I'm sure] the only really short term material effect is you are about to loose a lot of allies for the long term.

 

Then it's all about distinguishing the shades between friends and allies.

 

Friends back up friends,when needed, based on respect for already long term well working friendship, for friends' freedoms and rights to design and take responsibility for own lifes, to choose stance on whatever,

 

Allies concur on what they agree on, and choose to differ on anything else [most likely based on agreements written on paper].

 

John - circumstances change. This war is being lost. Now the tough decisions need to be made. When do you settle? How do you settle? Escalation makes settlement much messier.

 

By escalation, I mean, European & American involvement in terms of troops. Do you wish to commit Danish troops to this cause?  America is crossing the line from a proxy war to direct involvement with Russia here. That is a significant escalation. And it's being done by a President that has lost much of his cognitive abilities. So you have staff members like Jake Sullivan and Anthony Blinken calling the shots. On one hand, they demand that Israel ceasefire and stop the war. On the other hand, they escalate a losing war in Ukraine.

 

I see it as a very dangerous move.

[Xerxes]

3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Pretty much. If nuclear black mail works, it will work too on the US as well and North Korea and Iran are surely are watching.

 

Putin changing its nuclear doctrine for example is laughable. Putin could have triggered a nuclear strike at any time already. He pretty much has absolute power. The only doctrine there is that Putin does whatever he wants in Russia.

Its the west job to prevent him from doing whatever he wants elsewhere.

you forgot Israeli nuclear blackmail in the early 1970 (Yom Kipper War) to fast track weapon shipment out of U.S.  

 

on Putin change of doctrine. Of course is laughable, as it is just paperwork, but it is what we call signalling. 
 

There are red lines for public consumption, and there are actual red lines, where the cost of doing nothing overweighs the PR cost of breaking the multi-decade long nuclear taboo. 
 

Zelensky lobbed all kind hardware to Russian the moment he got permission from Biden. As any rational person would do who is fighting a total war. Some of that hardware had Ukrainian missiles but they also used ATACM.
 

BUT Zelensky clearly chose to mention that they used ATACM and remove “tactical” ambiguity. 

Edited November 21, 2024 by Xerxes

[Xerxes]

I just heard that an ICBM was used. We call that signalling. 

 

And that the Kremlin press lady was told not to discuss it during the press conference. Odd

[John Hjorth]

38 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

I just heard that an ICBM was used. We call that signalling. 

 

And that the Kremlin press lady was told not to discuss it during the press conference. Odd

 

From Reuters, from the rolling news flow wall now, so screen shot here :

 

 

So, let's see.

[Pelagic]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

No - the idea here is this:  The missiles being fired into Russia are a very sophisticated American missile system. Therefore, it's likely manned by Americans or European NATO members. That is a big step. You have no idea how Putin will respond, even though he said nuclear weapons are now on the table.

 

You're crossing the line where Europeans/American troops may have to get involved in the case of a strike.  If that is what you desire - go right ahead.

 

Ukraine has been operating HIMARs for two and a half years, I think they've figured out how to plug in the coordinates of static sites like ammunition dumps you can clearly see on Google or Yandex maps by now. The idea that western troops are there at every second holding their hand is laughable when you look at the volume of GMLRS strikes since they were provided in 2022. And if you think there's some massive capability barrier between using the same system for GMLRS and ATACMS, they've been operating ATACMs for over a year against sites in Russian occupied Ukraine. They're perfectly capable of using the system themselves.

 

 

 

 

[Xerxes]

This is what we call Kremlinologist given the vast array of books behind her 

 

[John Hjorth]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

From Reuters, from the rolling news flow wall now, so screen shot here :

 

 

So, let's see.

 

Reuters [November 21^st 2024 November 21, 20248:20 PM GMT+1] : Russia fired experimental ballistic missile at Ukraine, Putin says.

 

So, now likely not an ICBM [, we well also likely, all, consider a better alternative in the situation than the start of use of ICBMs.]

[John Hjorth]

7 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

John - circumstances change. This war is being lost. Now the tough decisions need to be made. When do you settle? How do you settle? Escalation makes settlement much messier.

 

By escalation, I mean, European & American involvement in terms of troops. Do you wish to commit Danish troops to this cause?  America is crossing the line from a proxy war to direct involvement with Russia here. That is a significant escalation. And it's being done by a President that has lost much of his cognitive abilities. So you have staff members like Jake Sullivan and Anthony Blinken calling the shots. On one hand, they demand that Israel ceasefire and stop the war. On the other hand, they escalate a losing war in Ukraine.

 

I see it as a very dangerous move.

 

Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Rest assured, I hear [read] you!  - This is indeed a Catch-22, and a really nasty one! I may need some more time to think about  it and to elaborate.

[Spekulatius]

6 hours ago, Xerxes said:

This is what we call Kremlinologist given the vast array of books behind her 

 

That is Kreminal.

 

Maybe Putin lobs ballistic missiles because he runs of cruise missiles?

[John Hjorth]

7 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

That is Kreminal.

 

Maybe Putin lobs ballistic missiles because he runs of cruise missiles?

 

@Spekulatius,

 

Do you mean '... run out of cruise missiles?'?

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Google Translate translates the humor here from Danish to English [for free] as 'Gallow Humor'.

 

OT: I renewed my yearly Google One subscription today, by the way. [DKK 170.00 / year - Value for money - Absolutely awesome service and company.]

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-22/texas-raises-pressure-on-chinese-investments-with-exit-order

[Spekulatius]

Somebody check on Tepper if he is still OK.

 

Or maybe he sold into the surge he caused.

[Spekulatius]

Rubble exchange rate tells us that the Russian economy is a black hole:

 

This is despite the fact that the Russian central bank raises the interest rates and this is Tyvola of an economy that basically switched to a war economy where a large percentage of goods produced are going into the war effort rather than public consumption. Since Russia does not have that money , they print it with predicable results.

 

My guess is that the final toon stats from the Russian central bank are understated and they ought to be entering hyperinflation  by now. The biggest mistake the west could do is ease the sanctions. Even if there is a truce (there will never be peace with Putin) the sanctions should stay in place imo and everything that lowers crude prices helps too, as that’s about the only thing that Russia has to get hard currency.

Long terms, they just become North Korea. Still dangerous but hopelessly behind on technology behind with no chance of ever catching up.

 

[Xerxes]

Most ballistic missiles are hypersonic during descent. The terminology is not new, but used often in marketing.  
 

It just question of how hyper-hypersonic it is. And if it glides before final descent, which most don’t. 
 

I think more reading is needed here. 

[zippy1]

This piece of news is kind of interesting. It is possible to read it with google translator.
Basically, the government of ChaoZhou in the Guangdong provience decided to do a safety inspection on the stores.  If a business fails the safety inspection, it can be fined quite severely.  
Apparently, quite a few stores decide to close to avoid being inspected. The unofficial story is tha the stores are closing "en masse."   These store owners are creative in why they close the stores for the day.  The reasons for not opening for business are like "Be afraid of Ghost", "having a fight with my spouse", "the owner is in a bad mood" in the news story.  
If the story is true, the  finance of the local government has to be in bad shape to do this. 
https://www.hk01.com/即時中國/1078816/潮州-汕頭傳大量店舖關門停業避檢查-官方-只是個別商戶

[Spekulatius]

48 minutes ago, zippy1 said:

This piece of news is kind of interesting. It is possible to read it with google translator.
Basically, the government of ChaoZhou in the Guangdong provience decided to do a safety inspection on the stores.  If a business fails the safety inspection, it can be fined quite severely.  
Apparently, quite a few stores decide to close to avoid being inspected. The unofficial story is tha the stores are closing "en masse."   These store owners are creative in why they close the stores for the day.  The reasons for not opening for business are like "Be afraid of Ghost", "having a fight with my spouse", "the owner is in a bad mood" in the news story.  
If the story is true, the  finance of the local government has to be in bad shape to do this. 
https://www.hk01.com/即時中國/1078816/潮州-汕頭傳大量店舖關門停業避檢查-官方-只是個別商戶

I guess they will escalate to unannounced inspection very quickly.

 

Sort of like “Afraid of the ghost” . It’s probably a subtle hint of being afraid of ghouls from the government.

 

Here is another story from China when we visited  our Chinese subsidy:

 

My boss wanted to make a little smalltalk and ask the other manager who spoke a little English:

 

”How is your wife?”

Answer:

“ She is ugly!” 

We quickly looked at each other than at the translator and changed the subject.

 

We later talked with the translator when the other manager wasn’t around. The translator translated everything word for word for us but neither he nor the Chinese manager understood the intend (he was around when above happened ), but as it turns out “saying my wife is ugly or not pretty “ is just being modest in China. 
 

It would be impolite and bragging to say “ My wife is pretty”. He also misunderstood the question thinking it pertains to his wife looks, not as polite small talk or genuine interest.

Edited November 23, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Spekulatius]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Most ballistic missiles are hypersonic during descent. The terminology is not new, but used often in marketing.  
 

It just question of how hyper-hypersonic it is. And if it glides before final descent, which most don’t. 
 

I think more reading is needed here. 

Yes,of course. Al, ballistic missiles are hypersonic, , but generally hypersonic missile are those that are either powered or glide and can control the direction upon descend so they are harder to intercept.

 

Patriots system have been quite capable of intercepting the powered hypersonic Khinzal missiles that Russia came up with earlier. You don’t hear much about those any more.

 

The bigger issues are the many glide bombs that Russia uses en Masse and that are cheap to retrofit on existing dumb bombs apparently.

Edited November 23, 2024 by Spekulatius

[Xerxes]

13 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Patriots system have been quite capable of intercepting the powered hypersonic Khinzal missiles that Russia came up with earlier. You don’t hear much about those any more.

 

Kinzhal are indeed air launched modified version of Iskanders, that were marketed as “hypersonic”. 
 

Zircon are a different matter. And not many of them have been used. 
 

Overall the Patriot defense system has been impressive. But the hit rate is contingent on full salvos. So high hit rate per battery but low hit rate per launcher. 

 

https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/kinzhal/

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-unstoppable-hypersonic-missiles-had-another-bad-night-ukraine-says-2024-11

 

 

Ukrainian Commander in Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi disclosed in August that Russia had launched 111 Kinzhal missiles since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and that Kyiv had managed to shoot down 28 of them — an interception rate of just 25%.

Syrskyi said Russia had used the Zircon missile only six times. Two of the munitions were shot down, while the other four struck civilian targets, Ukrainian media reported. The statistics on intercepts for these missiles appear higher now, but only slightly.

 

 

"Ukraine claims a 25% interception rate for hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles, but Ukrainian sources also indicate such interceptions require salvo firing all 32 launchers in a US-style Patriot battery to have any chance to shoot down a single hypersonic missile," the institute wrote in a September report.

[zippy1]

5 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I guess they will escalate to unannounced inspection very quickly.

 

Sort of like “Afraid of the ghost” . It’s probably a subtle hint of being afraid of ghouls from the government.

 

Here is another story from China when we visited  our Chinese subsidy:

 

My boss wanted to make a little smalltalk and ask the other manager who spoke a little English:

 

”How is your wife?”

Answer:

“ She is ugly!” 

We quickly looked at each other than at the translator and changed the subject.

 

We later talked with the translator when the other manager wasn’t around. The translator translated everything word for word for us but neither he nor the Chinese manager understood the intend (he was around when above happened ), but as it turns out “saying my wife is ugly or not pretty “ is just being modest in China. 
 

It would be impolite and bragging to say “ My wife is pretty”. He also misunderstood the question thinking it pertains to his wife looks, not as polite small talk or genuine interest.

the kind of culture difference can really surprise me.  I asked my friend, who had been a factory manager in China for quite a few years and left recently about this story.  He said likely the low level governemnt guy who leaked the inspection date would be scolded.  Then he will go making arrangements with these store owners that they will take turn to open, be inspected (and be fined....)...  There is not much the store owners can do....

[Xerxes]

Thanks Haryana,

 

Was watching a video on YouTube, it was saying how the specs of this *new* intermediate ballistic missile are within what was banned under Intermediate Treaty in 1987 which was torn apart during the first Trump administration, heavily pushed by John Bolton. 
 

In hindsight, unless I am mistaken (as I am no expert) this events vindicate the decision to set aside the 1987 treaty by Trump. 
 

Kremlin may have been abiding by the letter of the 1987 law, but not in the spirits of the same law. Oreshnik must have been developed during 1987 ban, with specs just within what was permissible, and an easy jump to upgrade once the treaty was no more. 
 

Reminds me of Treaty of Versailles that limited the German armed forces to no more than 100,000 men. A small number for then 1930s armies. But those restrictions were easily bypassed by a clever General Staff, by keep rotating new troops and doing early retirement, while keeping under 100,000 men. Do that five or six times, you have 500,000 and 600,000 trained, standing de facto army, ready to put on the uniform once the treaty is torn apart. 

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-cant-make-ukraine-enough-weaponsso-its-paying-kyiv-to-do-it-f9b86bf0?mod=mhp

 

Ukraine will still rely on Western allies for advanced weapons such as Patriot surface-to-air interceptor missiles. But officials say the new approach will allow Kyiv to acquire weapons faster and in greater number than waiting for European arms to be produced. Ukraine can do this because its arms industry is operating far below its production capacity—30% of its potential, by some estimates—because of insufficient funding.

...

“Ukraine was the heart of the Soviet defense industrial base, so they have a lot of know-how when it comes to manufacturing complex systems,” Ciaramella said. Supporting Ukraine’s defense industry lets the West help ensure Ukraine’s long-term self-sufficiency, he said.

 

Meanwhile: https://www.ehttps://www.economist.com/europe/2024/11/24/ukraines-warriors-brace-for-a-kremlin-surge-in-the-south

 

But Ukraine’s systemic weakness is clearly taking its toll on the morale of its front-line fighters. With no hope for rotation or demobilisation, some of the once most committed now wonder if a ceasefire might be the only way out. “Chechen”, the brigade officer leading the new soldiers’ training session, says he remains determined to fight to the end. “Giving away territories to these disgusting people is no guarantee it will stop.” But he admits that fewer soldiers than ever share his resolve. “It’s not even 50-50 any more, but 30-70.” Lemberg puts the situation in even starker terms. “In 2022 I was ready to tear the Russians apart with my teeth,” he says. “In 2023, I just needed rest. This year? I almost couldn’t give a fuck.”

 

Edited November 26, 2024 by UK

[changegonnacome]

16 hours ago, UK said:

“In 2022 I was ready to tear the Russians apart with my teeth,” he says. “In 2023, I just needed rest. This year? I almost couldn’t give a fuck.”

 

Jesus - rough stuff reading........It really wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine's front line collapses in the coming weeks....it must be incredibly difficult for Ukraine's military leadership to maintain discipline and commitment now in the lower ranks.....I feel for the Ukrainian fighters out there in Eastern Ukraine.....the David vs. Goliath ending is assuredly over now....and so it must be near impossible to summon up the 'why' required to press forward and put your life on the line.