Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

14 hours ago, Viking said:

@John Hjorth your comment gets at political culture. Russia has never had a democratic political culture (they tried for a brief time and not surprisingly it was a catastrophe). Democratic political cultures are not the norm - autocracies are the norm (I am including autocracies masquerading as democracies here). So I am not sure Russia will ever get one.

 

Thanks, @Viking ,

 

Your post triggered quite some searches by me, I'll post some the search results later, because I think it would educational for all CoBF members [including me] reading or participating in this topic.

[John Hjorth]

7 hours ago, Warner said:

... The West needs to get out of this conflict and move on. ... 

 

Personally, I find that future outcome to become the actual happening of the total space of possible outcomes highly unlikely, @Warner. Because this war has alreeady been turned into a clash between ideologies, based on that noone trusts or beleives anymore that Russia would stop with Ukraine.

 

In the international society of countries, Putin has totally lost the last bit of personal credibility he had left. Nobody wants to talk with him about anything any more. To me, very hard to understand that the Russian population is indifferent about the overall direction for Russia set by Putin, i.e. now trading with shady companies, states hosting terrorists and rogue states.

[rogermunibond]

Agreed most of these measures are directed at banking, property market and stock market.  Maybe makes Chinese consumers a bit more happy to spend via the wealth effect channel.  Shoring up the capital adequacy of banks helps.  But who's taking out loans?  I don't expect much though.

 

2 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

Big China stimulus. Good for sentiment but I think without meaningful fiscal support won't do much for the economy. 

 

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/world/china/top-economist-in-china-vanishes-after-private-wechat-comments-50dac0b1

 

Top Economist in China Vanishes After Private WeChat Comments

A government adviser was detained and removed from his posts after he allegedly criticized leader Xi Jinping’s management of the economy.

[Warner]

In 2007, Putin, in Munich, made it clear NATO expansion to Ukraine and Georgia was not acceptable to Russia.

Bush invited Georgia and Ukraine to NATO the following year, and Russia took the threat, invaded Georgia, and stopped it.

Again post 2014, NATO expansion was proposed for Ukraine, in 2022 after the failed implementation of the Minsk accords, future peace plan proposal ignored in Dec 2021, Russia invaded Ukraine, and stopped NATO expansion.  

 

The pattern is starting to become clear....... You may or may not agree, but from the Russian prospect I promise to all they do not want more NATO alignment on their borders, especially, in countries they consider (right or wrong) in their sphere of influence. It is honestly full stop for them with this.. 

 

Russians are not indifferent. They just happen to support the Russian gov't position and they are fighting (and dying)for it.

 

International society of countries are N.A. Europe, Japan, Australia, and South Korean. Wealthy, but far from all. Very few others are interested, and the moment sanctions are lifted most trade will resume immediately for most.

 

Russia has what the world needs in resources, the relationship will not be like before, but the moment the war ends trade in the necessities will resume.

 

The USA fought directly the N. Vietnamese for over a decade and 20 years after the war the relationship was restored. In Ukraine, this will happen much faster as it was fought by proxy.

 

The West has more to gain from a good relationship with Russia. What your hear in the Western news is not the full story politically and culturally. This war is a stalemate as is right now and it is better to end the blood shed and move on.. There is nothing more to be gained, only more lost lives for nothing. Ukraine has lost.

 

And, if you don't like Putin then her very carefully what you with for. The replacement will not be more Western aligned in any sort of way.

 

Btw, I am Canadian but I work and live 200 km from the Russian border. Perspective can change it you are open to hear the opposite of the story. The truth is always buried somewhere in the middle

 

Thanks for the respectful conversation! very rare and appreciated.

[John Hjorth]

21 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Thanks, @Viking ,

 

Your post triggered quite some searches by me, I'll post some the search results later, because I think it would educational for all CoBF members [including me] reading or participating in this topic.

 

Freedom House [www.freedomhuuse.org] : Freedom in The World 2022 , p. 18 :

 

 

 

Wikipedia : The Economist Democracy Index :

 

 

Wikipedia : Political culture.

 

From the article about definition :

 

Quote

Political culture describes how culture impacts politics. Every political system is embedded in a particular political culture.^[1] Political culture is what the people, the voters, the electorates believe and do based on their understanding of the political system in which they have found themselves. These may be regarded as being bad or good placed side by side with global best practices or norms.

 

From the article and about Russian political culture :

 

Quote

Russia is a low-trust society, with even the highest trusted institutions of church and the military having more distrustful than trusting citizens, and with low participation in civil society.^[3][5] This means that Russia has a weak civic political culture. Furthermore, the authoritarian traditions of Russia mean that there is little support for democratic norms such as tolerance of dissent and pluralism.^[6] Russia has a history of authoritarian rulers from Ivan the Terrible to Joseph Stalin, who have engaged in massive repression of all potential political competitors, from the oprichnina to the Great Purge. The resulting political systems of Tsarist autocracy and Soviet communism had no space for independent institutions.^{[citation needed]}

 

[John Hjorth]

1 hour ago, Warner said:

In 2007, Putin, in Munich, made it clear NATO expansion to Ukraine and Georgia was not acceptable to Russia.

Bush invited Georgia and Ukraine to NATO the following year, and Russia took the threat, invaded Georgia, and stopped it.

Again post 2014, NATO expansion was proposed for Ukraine, in 2022 after the failed implementation of the Minsk accords, future peace plan proposal ignored in Dec 2021, Russia invaded Ukraine, and stopped NATO expansion.  

 

The pattern is starting to become clear....... You may or may not agree, but from the Russian prospect I promise to all they do not want more NATO alignment on their borders, especially, in countries they consider (right or wrong) in their sphere of influence. It is honestly full stop for them with this.. 

 

Russians are not indifferent. They just happen to support the Russian gov't position and they are fighting (and dying)for it.

 

International society of countries are N.A. Europe, Japan, Australia, and South Korean. Wealthy, but far from all. Very few others are interested, and the moment sanctions are lifted most trade will resume immediately for most.

 

Russia has what the world needs in resources, the relationship will not be like before, but the moment the war ends trade in the necessities will resume.

 

The USA fought directly the N. Vietnamese for over a decade and 20 years after the war the relationship was restored. In Ukraine, this will happen much faster as it was fought by proxy.

 

The West has more to gain from a good relationship with Russia. What your hear in the Western news is not the full story politically and culturally. This war is a stalemate as is right now and it is better to end the blood shed and move on.. There is nothing more to be gained, only more lost lives for nothing. Ukraine has lost.

 

And, if you don't like Putin then her very carefully what you with for. The replacement will not be more Western aligned in any sort of way.

 

Btw, I am Canadian but I work and live 200 km from the Russian border. Perspective can change it you are open to hear the opposite of the story. The truth is always buried somewhere in the middle

 

Thanks for the respectful conversation! very rare and appreciated.

 

Thank you for sharing, @Warner,

 

And thank you for the personal backdrop information from and about you.

 

Very frustrating to think about this Gordian Knot and how to get the meaningless losses of many lives to stop.

[Warner]

It is a complete failure of diplomacy. It was totally unnecessary. All of this was for nothing significant. Neither side will reach their goals, but many have and will die.

[Luke]

2 hours ago, Warner said:

It is a complete failure of diplomacy. It was totally unnecessary. All of this was for nothing significant. Neither side will reach their goals, but many have and will die.

 

Russia has expanded its wealth of natural resources by more than 10%, and there is a lot of value in the eastern region, so I don't think "nothing" was gained here. But as you already said in previous posts, it was not smart at all from Ukraine to lean towards either side and could have existed perfectly fine if it would have run a more "swiss" position with a government that operates more strategically. I agree basically with everything you said in previous post though. Ukraine got into things way bigger than them, and the government didn't think about its position and the willingness of Russia to solidify itself there. Very tragic. 

Edited September 25, 2024 by Luke

[Luke]

IMO the US operates fully in its own interests (contrary to european countries but they dont see that), which by now are not realizable and will lead only to further escalation because Russia would rather blow up than be defeated. They also have little to lose with how much they are pushed into a corner anyway. It is time to call it off and sit down with Putin to discuss forced peace (as much as this goes against the will of the Ukrainians). 

 

Much better would be of course, total withdrawal by Putin, some sort of autonomous region in the east and a neutral position with a new government. But I think that deal was realistic 10 years ago, but not anymore 

[John Hjorth]

6 minutes ago, Luke said:

 

Russia has expanded its wealth of natural resources by more than 10%, and there is a lot of value in the eastern region, so I don't think "nothing" was gained here. But as you already said in previous posts, it was not smart at all from Ukraine to lean towards either side and could have existed perfectly fine if it would have run a more "swiss" position with a government that operates more strategically. I agree basically with everything you said in previous post though. Ukraine got into things way bigger than them, and the government didn't think about its position and the willingness of Russia to solidify itself there. Very tragic. 

 

I'm speechless reading this here on CoBF from, what at least is the best of my understanding, a young German citizen. Oh, well.

[Luke]

7 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

I'm speechless reading this here on CoBF from, what at least is the best of my understanding, a young German citizen. Oh, well.

John, please, my statement was without moral judgment. I was simply speaking from the Russian side of view. The land they gained is not "nothing". There are trillions worth of minerals and other natural ressources that are valuable. So the war, as much people it cost, gained them a lot of ressources. Yes, brutal, but thats obvious. I am not in this thread to sob or virtue signal, just simply discussing reality and whats happening behind the scenes. 

[Luke]

I don't have to explain, with every statement one makes in this war, that it's a brutal, tragic, vicious, and unnecessary war that I wouldn't wish for any country in this world without having a moral police stepping by. But that is also part of this conflict; you can't discuss anything without someone playing the moral police and it prevents to discuss the fundamentals and seeking a resolution.   

[Luke]

From an investment perspective: I think the board can change fast, elections in the US could turn in favor for trump, EU elections and german elections could bring a conservative government that seeks diplomatic resolution. By 2026 russian direct trade could be open again, maybe even the stock market too. Not saying the probability is that high BUT its also not as unlikely IMO. 

[cubsfan]

34 minutes ago, Luke said:

I don't have to explain, with every statement one makes in this war, that it's a brutal, tragic, vicious, and unnecessary war that I wouldn't wish for any country in this world without having a moral police stepping by. But that is also part of this conflict; you can't discuss anything without someone playing the moral police and it prevents to discuss the fundamentals and seeking a resolution.   

 

Few of us want Russia to win this war, certainly not me. The question now, is how many lives are to be lost in what clearly looks like a stalemate - and a war that Ukraine can not win. And whose lives will be lost - more Ukrainians? Europeans? American?

 

When you fast forward to that question - I come to the conclusion that you settle with Russia.

 

This whole thing could have been avoided if the Europeans and the US had deterred Russia back in 2013. Obama essentially gave Putin the green light for playing nice and not causing him re-election trouble in 2012. Barrack kept his promise to Putin - eased back on missile defense in progress. The Europeans were asleep at the wheel - and Putin took his opportunity.

 

Now the US and Europe are tryin to clean up a mess that could have been easily avoided.

[John Hjorth]

29 minutes ago, Luke said:

John, please, my statement was without moral judgment. I was simply speaking from the Russian side of view. The land they gained is not "nothing". There are trillions worth of minerals and other natural ressources that are valuable. So the war, as much people it cost, gained them a lot of ressources. Yes, brutal, but thats obvious. I am not in this thread to sob or virtue signal, just simply discussing reality and whats happening behind the scenes. 

 

27 minutes ago, Luke said:

I don't have to explain, with every statement one makes in this war, that it's a brutal, tragic, vicious, and unnecessary war that I wouldn't wish for any country in this world without having a moral police stepping by. But that is also part of this conflict; you can't discuss anything without someone playing the moral police and it prevents to discuss the fundamentals and seeking a resolution.   

 

22 minutes ago, Luke said:

From an investment perspective: I think the board can change fast, elections in the US could turn in favor for trump, EU elections and german elections could bring a conservative government that seeks diplomatic resolution. By 2026 russian direct trade could be open again, maybe even the stock market too. Not saying the probability is that high BUT its also not as unlikely IMO. 

 

Sure, @Luke ,

 

You are entitled to whatever stance you may have. My postulate is your stance is naive with regard to the defence of democratic values in Europe. Up yours with all your charts. To me, you haven't understood one whit of what's at stake here for Europe, based on probabilities of futher Russian imperialist agressions within Europe going forward. You seem to be totally indifferent to such matters.

 

And here I stop, for good.

[Luke]

 

53 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

When you fast forward to that question - I come to the conclusion that you settle with Russia.

What is the realistic alternative? The war has its origins, and the West/Ukraine went too far. It doesn't mean Russia can simply do this, but they are doing it, and you have to acknowledge reality. I am simply pointing out an acceptable way out that was already there two years ago, and now there are hundreds of thousands of dead men, and you want to continue throwing weapons at this? 

53 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

This whole thing could have been avoided if the Europeans and the US had deterred Russia back in 2013. Obama essentially gave Putin the green light for playing nice and not causing him re-election trouble in 2012.

What does the US have to do with any of this? One reason for this war is that the US is encroaching on every country globally, trying to grab influence and build military bases everywhere, including Ukraine. 

53 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Barrack kept his promise to Putin - eased back on missile defense in progress. The Europeans were asleep at the wheel - and Putin took his opportunity.

That is not the story at all, sorry. 

 

[Luke]

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Sure, @Luke ,

 

You are entitled to whatever stance you may have. My postulate is your stance is naive with regard to the defence of democratic values in Europe.

And that's why I would never vote for you because eventually, you would send young western european guys to a war that they have nothing to do with. Do real sensible politics and not a virtue show biz that eventually leads to a full escalation, including NATO. That's what you want, right? Because its "good" vs "evil", right? RIGHT? 

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

Up yours with all your charts. To me, you haven't understood one whit of what's at stake here for Europe, based on probabilities of futher Russian imperialist agressions within Europe going forward. You seem to be totally indifferent to such matters.

Look at the NATO budget, look at NATO's technological advancement, look at our manpower. You are delusional if you believe Putin plans to conquer Nato countries or go further into Europe. 

1 hour ago, John Hjorth said:

And here I stop, for good.

Good, because you are providing 0 value to the discussion with your statements. 

Edited September 25, 2024 by Luke

[Luke]

It's simple: 

 

One side is morally bloated and blind on one eye. They want to seek "justice" and fight "evil," and that justifies why the EU/US, etc, should send trillions of dollars, incl. their men, to fight against evil Russia because apparently they want to take over the whole of Europe, leaving out any history and origin of the discussion. They are for way more weapon delivery and ultimately a total war against Russia until they crumble and the government is taken over and replaced with a pro-western leader.  

 

The other side sees that there is an origin of this conflict, that we have a responsibility to resolve the initial conflict diplomatically, and that we have to stop sending more and more weapons. They see that we have to include Russia and Putin in the discussion, take them seriously, reinitiate communications and mutual respect and work towards an acceptable deal for both sides wich includes new elections in Ukraine, no nato joining etc, autonomous regions in the east etc. This would be best for humanity, would stop the dying, would lead to peace in europe and slowly ukraine can rebuild itself and emerge neutral, autonomous and safe. 

 

Then the first group says "but putin etc" we cant let him win" "he is evil" so the weapons continue and the war continues and the escalation continues towards a potential nuclear disaster all for really, nothing but lofty moral statements, meanwhile hundred thousand men dead.

 

So the outcome by group one is a total war with then 5m men dead, and a totally destroyed ukraine. And the second outcome of group two is immediate stopping of dying, peace developments, ukraine not bombed anymore, emerging prosperity etc.

 

You tell me whats smarter. 

 

 

Edited September 25, 2024 by Luke

[Luke]

And another result also emerges of this discussion: No matter how much you talk about this with someone from group one, they will never change their mind because its not about doing real sensible things but its about lofty things, "being right", "doing good", "being virtuous". So there is really no point in changing their mind because they psychologically need to believe and act out story one, one is eventually wasting ones time and one can only agree to disagree. 

[RichardGibbons]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

I'm speechless reading this here on CoBF from, what at least is the best of my understanding, a young German citizen. Oh, well.

 

I don't think you should be surprised at this, John.  Luke's been one of the most consistent people on the forum.

 

I don't think I've ever seen him move even a step away from his core position that large authoritarian regimes that crush their own citizens are completely good, and democracies and free markets are completely bad.  It's very clear that if Russia invades Germany, his position will be that it's both a good thing and that Germany deserves it.

[Xerxes]

Hopefully some humour to help break tension in this thread. 
 

 

[Parsad]

4 hours ago, Luke said:

It's simple: 

 

One side is morally bloated and blind on one eye. They want to seek "justice" and fight "evil," and that justifies why the EU/US, etc, should send trillions of dollars, incl. their men, to fight against evil Russia because apparently they want to take over the whole of Europe, leaving out any history and origin of the discussion. They are for way more weapon delivery and ultimately a total war against Russia until they crumble and the government is taken over and replaced with a pro-western leader.  

 

The other side sees that there is an origin of this conflict, that we have a responsibility to resolve the initial conflict diplomatically, and that we have to stop sending more and more weapons. They see that we have to include Russia and Putin in the discussion, take them seriously, reinitiate communications and mutual respect and work towards an acceptable deal for both sides wich includes new elections in Ukraine, no nato joining etc, autonomous regions in the east etc. This would be best for humanity, would stop the dying, would lead to peace in europe and slowly ukraine can rebuild itself and emerge neutral, autonomous and safe. 

 

Then the first group says "but putin etc" we cant let him win" "he is evil" so the weapons continue and the war continues and the escalation continues towards a potential nuclear disaster all for really, nothing but lofty moral statements, meanwhile hundred thousand men dead.

 

So the outcome by group one is a total war with then 5m men dead, and a totally destroyed ukraine. And the second outcome of group two is immediate stopping of dying, peace developments, ukraine not bombed anymore, emerging prosperity etc.

 

You tell me whats smarter. 

 

 

 

Are you saying that Europe, Canada and the U.S. should have simply negotiated with Germany and Japan?

 

I understand you want to have a discussion with no moral context, only based on fact, history and economic objectives, but that isn't reality.  

 

Russia could have pursued a diplomatic solution to accessing the resources in Ukraine...like a partnership agreement or licensing rights.  Wouldn't that have prevented a war or tens of thousands of deaths?

 

So why didn't Putin choose that solution?  Why invade another sovereign nation?

 

The other side of this discussion isn't interested in virtue signaling either, but they aren't naive enough to believe that aggression is simply a precursor to diplomacy.  It should be the other way around!

 

Cheers!

[Spekulatius]

If only ignoring problems (moving on) would solve them. Doesn’t work in engineering that’s for sure. Ignoring a problem has never worked for me there and likely grows into a larger problem.

 I guess I should have studied sociology and politics instead. So simple.

 

Also, Russia will run out of sons too. Demographics are terrible and not in Russias favor. Russia can’t keep this up forever. They recruit 30,000 mean/ month for the war. Thats gives you an idea about the consumption rate this war has for the Russians.

 

Also, the Rubel is back to trash levels of about 93 Rubel for he $ on grey market. Roughly 2 x Pre war. that means imports cost 2x too. The price economic data on the surface does not look to bad with ~3% GDP growth but that’s because the Russian economy has to switch to a war economy, this growth does not go into consumer goods and services.

 

Interest rates were raised to 18%.

 

An interesting  stat from another war - German production of goods was rising until 1944 - with pretty much everything going into war efforts directly and indirectly. In 1944 much of Germany was already destroyed and the war was lost. I am just putting this out there k because some people claim the the economic data proves that Russia is doing well economically.

[UK]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Ignoring a problem has never worked for me there and likely grows into a larger problem.

 

It could work this way: ,The soldier-turned US President Dwight Eisenhower once said that when he couldn’t solve problems, he made them bigger, so he could':)

 

Edited September 26, 2024 by UK