Political Posts

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-07/china-urges-officials-to-stop-playing-throwing-eggs-card-game

[Spekulatius]

Pretty good take from Michael Clark on why Ukraine started this incursion:

 

[Hektor]

Wonder how these are funded during difficult economic times. 

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/10/world/asia/china-border-villages.html 

 

China’s Great Wall of Villages

China has moved thousands of people to new settlements on its frontiers. It calls them “border guardians.”

 

Amazing villages near the frontiers. It will be interesting to see how these compare to other villages in interior China.

 

 

 

[WayWardCloud]

China does everything they can to be hated by every single one of their many neighbors. This is the most puzzling part of their global strategy to me. Do they really need a tiny bit more land here and there and what is the diplomatic cost of being such a dick to everyone else in the region? This isn't medieval times anymore.

 

I was equally scratching my head when they decided it was a good idea to send "wolf" diplomats to Europe to straight up insult and threaten us. They gained nothing and only deeply damaged their own image. I imagine they might have internal reasons that justify all this external non sense. Appeasing the hard liners nationalists in the party by giving them a bone to chew or something? Maybe some general needs to justify increasing the army budget?

 

Those settlements cancel the soft power and good will Belt and Road was supposed to bring and push away countries that should be natural allies such as Vietnam.

Edited August 11, 2024 by WayWardCloud

[Spekulatius]

Some of these villages are basically in wasteland with nothing around it. My guess is that China needs people to pay somehow to live there, because there is nothing to do.

[sleepydragon]

2 hours ago, WayWardCloud said:

China does everything they can to be hated by every single one of their many neighbors. This is the most puzzling part of their global strategy to me. Do they really need a tiny bit more land here and there and what is the diplomatic cost of being such a dick to everyone else in the region? This isn't medieval times anymore.

 

I was equally scratching my head when they decided it was a good idea to send "wolf" diplomats to Europe to straight up insult and threaten us. They gained nothing and only deeply damaged their own image. I imagine they might have internal reasons that justify all this external non sense. Appeasing the hard liners nationalists in the party by giving them a bone to chew or something? Maybe some general needs to justify increasing the army budget?

 

Those settlements cancel the soft power and good will Belt and Road was supposed to bring and push away countries that should be natural allies such as Vietnam.

the best ways for a dictator to maintain control is to be at constant wars with neighbors— look at North Korea and Russia, and Gengishi Khan. You get to feed and control the military and grab power and send people you don’t like to jail.

[formthirteen]

Made-in-China Goes Upscale as a New Generation of Brands Battles Slowdown

https://archive.is/GQDPi

 

Quote

Narwal’s Shao says the company is looking at the possibility of manufacturing some of its products in the US, Europe and other Asian countries, “to prepare for tariff and demand changes.” He’s not alone. Chinese businesses are investing abroad at the fastest pace in eight years, making $60 billion in foreign direct investments in the first five months of this year, an almost 16% increase over the same period in 2023.

 

Quote

Zongyuan Zoe Liu has a widely read article in Foreign Affairs this week about the drawbacks of China’s manufacturing-focused economic model.

 

The article gives an excellent explanation of how China promotes manufacturing. Basically, it’s all about bank finance — banks loan huge amounts of money very cheaply to manufacturers, who then compete fiercely, resulting in a flood of cheap, often undifferentiated products.

 

These price wars result in collapsing profit margins, as all the Chinese manufacturers glut the market with products no one wants to buy. It also results in a flood of exports, as Chinese manufacturers try to sell their excess capacity overseas. And it results in a mountain of corporate debt, forcing Chinese companies to stay on the treadmill of unprofitable production just to keep making their interest payments.

 

 

China’s Real Economic Crisis - Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-real-economic-crisis

 

Quote

Simply put, in many crucial economic sectors, China is producing far more output than it, or foreign markets, can sustainably absorb. As a result, the Chinese economy runs the risk of getting caught in a doom loop of falling prices, insolvency, factory closures, and, ultimately, job losses. Shrinking profits have forced producers to further increase output and more heavily discount their wares in order to generate cash to service their debts. Moreover, as factories are forced to close and industries consolidate, the firms left standing are not necessarily the most efficient or most profitable. Rather, the survivors tend to be those with the best access to government subsidies and cheap financing.

 

   

Quote

What’s interesting is that this is very similar to how Japan promoted manufacturing from the 1950s through the 1980s. As Chalmers Johnson explains in his book “Miti and the Japanese Miracle”, a key component of Japanese industrial policy was “overloaning” to manufacturers, using a combination of public and private banks.

 

 

Quote

China’s industrial policy, in contrast, leans in to overcapacity by dispensing absolutely massive government subsidies to manufacturers. This is why China’s overcapacity problem is much worse than Japan’s in the 20th century, which is why countries around the world are getting mad and putting up tariffs.

 

Quote

According to party orthodoxy, China’s economic advantage derives from its low consumption and high savings rates, which generate capital that the state-controlled banking system can funnel into industrial enterprises. This system also reinforces political stability by embedding the party hierarchy into every economic sector. Because China’s bloated industrial base is dependent on cheap financing to survive—financing that the Chinese leadership can restrict at any time—the business elite is tightly bound, and even subservient, to the interests of the party. In the West, money influences politics, but in China it is the opposite: politics influences money.

 

Looking for the upside of tariffs on China - Both Trump and Harris expected to slap more tariffs on Chinese-made goods in policy that seeks to reset terms of globalization

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/looking-for-the-upside-of-tariffs-on-china/

 

Quote

China’s government thus needs an additional incentive to shift its economic model. That incentive is tariffs. By stopping China from being able to use the rest of the world as the release valve for its overproduction, the US and other countries can hasten the day of reckoning when Chinese companies find themselves unable to offload their products at any price. That reckoning will force the Chinese government to figure out how to cut back on production.

At that point, the US and other countries can offer to remove tariffs if China agrees to voluntary export restriction and currency appreciation. But without the “stick” of tariffs to force China to deal with its own overcapacity, nothing is likely to change.

 

Quote

There’s another important way in which tariffs on China could help the rest of the world. One way for Chinese companies to partially avoid tariffs is to move their factories out of China to other countries, like Vietnam, Mexico, or Morocco.

 

This results in somewhat less revenue for China because the Chinese companies have to pay the labor, land, and energy costs in the country where they set up their factories. But Chinese companies still get to sell materials, parts, and components to their overseas assemblers, and they still get to keep the profits. So they get to partially avoid the impact of tariffs.

 

Quote

But if China could climb up the value chain, then so can Vietnam, Indonesia, Morocco and Egypt. Over time, the companies in these countries that do assembly for China will learn enough of the tricks of the trade that they’re able to make more and more of the harder, more valuable stuff.

 

In Europe, the chancellor of Germany is intent on continuing the policy of deindustrialization:

https://www.reuters.com/technology/germanys-scholz-not-convinced-about-tariffs-chinese-evs-wirtschaftswoche-2023-09-28/

 

Meanwhile in the US:

 

I wonder if, for example, GoPro and iRobot will survive the CCP policy of industrial growth at any cost? If not, more innovative companies will be founded that will outcompete the Chinese companies. Creative destruction…

 

I would expect TSLA to be able to compete with China through technological innovation and branding, but not pricing:

 

 

Edited August 11, 2024 by formthirteen

[crs223]

On 8/10/2024 at 8:30 PM, sleepydragon said:

constant wars … send people you don’t like to jail.

 

[formthirteen]

 

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-rare-loan-drop-stokes-034230811.html

 

Cheers!

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - News (video) - August 6^th 2024] : How This Archipelago Became a NATO-Russia Flashpoint.

 

The story about how the history and the present of the Åland Island [Swedish Finnish] in the Baltic Sea has evolved related to the big neighbour Russia to the East.

 

Reminds me a bit about the relation of Bornholm [Danish, also located in the Baltic Sea, but south of Sweden. The 'forgotten island' in Danish terms and a bad conscience in Danish history, where WWII diden't end at the date of German capitulation, untill about a year later - Russian troops simply did not leave the island untill about a year after, and actually a few island citizens lost their life in that diplomatic mess to solve the issues after the end of the war, which caused Russia to actually bomb the two 'major' [still small] cities on Bornholm.

Edited August 15, 2024 by John Hjorth

[John Hjorth]

Reuters [August 14^th 2024] : Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian diver in Nord Stream probe, media report.

 

Maybe some material facts of importance was 'burried' [withheld] by the Danish and Swedish government in the first place, because the release of it would affect public sentiment at the time? [- politicians are soo smart, right?]

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

I have my eyes firmly fixed on the Danish Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Løkke Rasmussen here.

[UK]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c

[UK]

On 8/14/2024 at 11:11 AM, John Hjorth said:

Åland Island [Swedish]

 

"The Åland Islands, or Åland, is an autonomous region of Finland" 

[John Hjorth]

Oops, fixed factual error about Åland Islands in post above, - thank you, @UK.

Edited August 15, 2024 by John Hjorth

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-home-price-slump-deepens-july-new-9-year-low-2024-08-15/

[John Hjorth]

War fatigue and what ever, what do I know :

 

 Bloomberg - News [August 15^th 2024] : Ukraine Reports Largest Surrender by Russian Troops of War .

 

At least these - about 100 or so - prisoners of war may likely now  have material improved life prospects,

 

Or not?

 

Yet : How to explain - when home in Russia again - that you have done nothing wrong again Mother Russia while in Ukrainian captivity? - Why did you surrender? - etc.

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-aide-says-nato-west-helped-ukraine-attack-russia-2024-08-16/

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-mp-says-ukrainian-incursion-could-lead-global-war-ria-reports-2024-08-16/

 

Edited August 16, 2024 by UK

[Xerxes]

Looks like I was wrong and way off, the culprit was not Poland. 
 

According to WSJ, it was the ex-Ukrainian general, and few drunken men that decided to blow up Nord Stream. 
 

Read “ex-Ukrainian general, and few drunken men” ==> unsanctioned lose canons and mavericks

Edited August 16, 2024 by Xerxes

[John Hjorth]

Thanks, @UK & @Xerxes,

 

I'm  still shocked by reading this. 

 

Not shocked - at all - that Volodymyr Zelenskyy may have signed off on this action and may have supported it on a practical level. Extraordinary times and circumstances may from time to time to require extraordinary measures and may contain an element of Catch-22 and imply Collateral damage.

 

To me, if he has participated in this, he has just done what his people rightfully might have expected of him as their leader and as a patriot. I'm also fine with him not public taking responsibility, when the adversary behaves like in this overall sitiuation. Bullies mostly understand nothing but brute force.

 

I take issue with the Danish and Swedish governments handling of the case, who initiated investigations of what happened back then, only to 'burry' achieved findings and conclusions with a 'confidential' stamp, based on the matters were 'relevant for the safety of the state'.

 

Utter *BS* and hipocrisy in two open democracies.

 

More stinky than fishy - bad odeor all over it.

[gfp]

That was such a great WSJ article - it's like everyone talked!  And now I know that "combat dolphins" are a thing that exists.  Highly recommend the article -

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-real-story-da24839c?mod=Searchresults_pos3&page=1

[Castanza]

Nord Stream Sabotage is going to be one Hell of a movie that's for sure. 

[Xerxes]

50 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Thanks, @UK & @Xerxes,

 

I'm  still shocked by reading this. 

 

Not shocked - at all - that Volodymyr Zelenskyy may have signed off on this action and may have supported it on a practical level. Extraordinary times and circumstances may from time to time to require extraordinary measures and may contain an element of Catch-22 and imply Collateral damage.

 

To me, if he has participated in this, he has just done what his people rightfully might have expected of him as their leader and as a patriot. I'm also fine with him not public taking responsibility, when the adversary behaves like in this overall sitiuation. Bullies mostly understand nothing but brute force.

 

I take issue with the Danish and Swedish governments handling of the case, who initiated investigations of what happened back then, only to 'burry' achieved findings and conclusions with a 'confidential' stamp, based on the matters were 'relevant for the safety of the state'.

 

Utter *BS* and hipocrisy in two open democracies.

 

More stinky than fishy - bad odeor all over it.

Yeap. it is war.
He is got to do what he is got to do. 
 

 

[changegonnacome]

1 minute ago, Xerxes said:

He is got to do what he is got to do.

 

with EU allies like Zelensky - who needs enemies?...blowing up a key energy conduit into Europe precipitating an energy crisis and now effectively condemning a generation of European energy intensive industry offshore to the USA or Asia is quite the neighborly thing to do......especially to an economic trading bloc your eager to join!

 

Reminds me a bit of Bibi.....who's seems quite happy to pull forward a regional conflict in the Middle East where the USA is gonna be forced to commit extraordinary resources in a war they have no interest in starting.

 

Sometimes in the alliances......the tail starts wagging the dog......if the dog isnt careful to remind the tail who's the boss sometimes!

[Gregmal]

Yup...remember too all the usual suspect media outlets blaming Putin and demanding more Ukraine aid? Fuckin pieces of shit as always.