Political Posts

[Luke]

5 minutes ago, Sweet said:

The war is dragging on because the Ukrainians don’t want to be dominated by the Russians, and the Russians would like to take over all of Ukraine.  

 

No further explanation is required.

 

When I say it’s irrelevant who the war benefits I’m specifically referring to your insinuation that it’s the US causing the war to drag on because it suits America.  Bullshit.

It would suit America and Europe just fine if Russia didn’t start the war in the first.

 

Plenty of people cared about Ukraine before the invasion in 2022.  I remember a tense meeting with Obama and Putin after Russia invaded Ukraine about a decade ago at a testy meeting.

 

It’s convenient for you to ignore such concerns but it’s also ironic that people it’s like you that also claim it was the West’s meddling in the Ukrainian’s Orange revolution that started all this.  You can’t have it both ways, the West not caring, but also caring enough to meddle.

 

Well, we have to disagree on our analysis but I appreciate the pushback 

[Sweet]

2 minutes ago, Luca said:

Well, we have to disagree on our analysis but I appreciate the pushback 

You are mostly pleasant Luca, to your credit.

[Luke]

15 minutes ago, Sweet said:

You are mostly pleasant Luca, to your credit.

It is a good discussion and I could be wrong, though something is suspect here to me in this war, we will see how this develops and of course: discuss!! LEARNING MACHINE 

Edited May 2, 2024 by Luca

[Xerxes]

It is interesting how we the folks in the West are viewing this. Through the lenses of geopolitics .. NATO this, NaTO that, Putin this, Article 5 that, Munich 2008 meeting this etc. 

 

 

I bet actual Russians and Ukrainians are seeing this as a “family quarrel” or a civil war of sort. Geopolitics being secondary to that. 

[Pelagic]

16 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

I used to believe they sandbag delivery estimates so Russia can't fully prepare for them before they arrive. But last week rumors were being printed about Ukraine getting ATACMS with unitary warheads before any have been seen in use, so I'm probably wrong about that. 

 

In general I think most countries involved in providing aid should take the approach that France does and not pre-announce or telegraph their intentions ahead of time, things just show up in Ukrainian hands. The initial small batch of cluster ATACMS last fall is a good example of this policy in action where they just showed up much to everyone's surprise and took out an S-400 battery and a dozen or so helicopters at an airbase in Donetsk. 

 

It's interesting though that the final straw for the Biden admin on providing long range ATACMS was Russia utilizing North Korean and Iranian missiles in Ukraine. 

[ValueArb]

7 hours ago, Luca said:

I reread the document, you are right that discussions about the regions are not included but its clear that they wont be returned. I talked with a good friend of mine who is russian and from st.petersburg, also has multiple ukranian friends who have their own little community here in Germany. He also has friends from the annexed regions. In general he said that these regions were looking to Russia for a long time, the regions were shitholes, with no jobs, and bandit kind of local government. The people who didn't like Russia either left before or fled to Ukraine after the war but its not as material as the west might want it to look like. 
 

Weird how a decade of FSB bribery, corruption and undermining can affect a local economy.

 

7 hours ago, Luca said:

Ukraine tried to break through russian lines but miserably failed because they lack man power and weapons. They went on offense and lost and have to grab more and more man that become also more and more unwilling. My russian friend said that in russia/st Petersburg the atmosphere to this war is surprisingly positive, there are many who want to fight and they get paid very very well. But of course, as with China, we only hear how oppressed and miserable their population is. 
 

 

Of course you aren’t hearing from the Vatniks on the front line. Just those lucky enough to avoid conscription.

. 

7 hours ago, Luca said:

Absolutely not. At least its relevant if you want to understand why this war gets dragged on so much and why the west is so heavily invested. Did they care that the eastern regions in ukraine were criminal shitholes? Noone cared. But now ukraine is THE media topic in the most positive light. 
 

 

weird how the eastern regions weren’t a problem until little green men crossed the border en mass. I guess you think the maiden uprising throwing out Putins hand picked President was the problem?

 

7 hours ago, Luca said:

The US also hoped that the Russian population would go against Putin and their government would crumble together with the sanctions...all of this didn't materialize. 

 

Tell it to Wagner Group. 

7 hours ago, Luca said:

Well, the Russians certainly learned a lot during the war and look pretty well positioned considering the situation. 

Well positioned with blocking battalions to force mountains of under trained vatniks with 50 year old weapons into the meat grinder. 

[Sweet]

 

Interesting thread. And as with other commentary it’s not possible to know what details are true and what are fake.

[ValueArb]

19 hours ago, Sweet said:

 

Interesting thread. And as with other commentary it’s not possible to know what details are true and what are fake.

 

The very idea that any reasonable peace plan was possible is de facto absurd. It would involve Putin giving security guarantees to Ukraine that it could never trust. 

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, ValueArb said:

 

The very idea that any reasonable peace plan was possible is de facto absurd. It would involve Putin giving security guarantees to Ukraine that it could never trust. 

Exactly

[ValueArb]

Looks like Shoigu is going to get arrested next. Putin is probably shoring up support beforehand to avoid Shoigu taking him out in a coup. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/bribery-case-puts-russian-defense-minister-sergei-shoigu-in-the-crosshairs/

[Hektor]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-04/france-s-macron-calls-for-reset-of-economic-ties-with-china

 

 

France’s Macron Calls for Reset of Economic Ties With China.
 

Europe wants more economic reciprocity from China, Macron says. French President Emmanuel Macron is calling for an update of the country’s economic ties with China, just as the country’s leader Xi Jinping is expected to travel to France for a State visit.

[Luke]

 

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3261632/xi-jinping-pushes-closer-ties-europe-eu-pressures-china-russia-and-trade?module=top_story&pgtype=homepage

[Parsad]

On the weekend, Buffett talked some about investing in China and elsewhere outside of the U.S.  He said as long as he's there, it is unlikely that Berkshire will invest significant sums outside of the U.S. 

 

Younger management may choose to do so when he's gone, but culturally he has no advantage investing outside of the U.S., nor does he have any real need to since many of Berkshire's investments and businesses have substantial operations outside of the U.S.  

 

After my experiences with China, and considering the size of investments I'm making, Buffett's position is extremely similar to my own thinking.  Cheers!

[Charlie]

On 5/6/2024 at 5:27 PM, Parsad said:

On the weekend, Buffett talked some about investing in China and elsewhere outside of the U.S.  He said as long as he's there, it is unlikely that Berkshire will invest significant sums outside of the U.S. 

 

Younger management may choose to do so when he's gone, but culturally he has no advantage investing outside of the U.S., nor does he have any real need to since many of Berkshire's investments and businesses have substantial operations outside of the U.S.  

 

After my experiences with China, and considering the size of investments I'm making, Buffett's position is extremely similar to my own thinking.  Cheers!

 

+1

Yeah, it is pretty simple.

Why should you invest in a high risk country, when you can invest in a low risk country?

It doesn´t make sense.

 

Edited May 7, 2024 by Charlie

[crs223]

46 minutes ago, Charlie said:

Why should you invest in a high risk country, when you can invest in a low risk country?

 

Why would you invest in a high risk bond when you can invest in a low risk bond?

[Xerxes]

On 5/3/2024 at 7:47 PM, ValueArb said:

Looks like Shoigu is going to get arrested next. Putin is probably shoring up support beforehand to avoid Shoigu taking him out in a coup. 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/bribery-case-puts-russian-defense-minister-sergei-shoigu-in-the-crosshairs/

without even reading about any of this, I can say with confidence that you are wrong. 
 

whatever this is, it is an infighting between different fiefdoms and power brokers with the Kremlin.  
 

The Tsar is above all of this. And Generalfeldmarschall Kietel, **cough** I mean Shoigu, is nothing to him. And most certainly, he is not even “coup” worthy as in not sponge-worthy. Even the head of Wagner, bowed before his master.  
 

You don’t get to be Tsar for 20 years by being an idiot. 

[Xerxes]

 

 

Steven Seagal never ceases to amaze me.  

[Charlie]

10 hours ago, crs223 said:

Why would you invest in a high risk bond when you can invest in a low risk bond?

Of course it depends on the risk prospensity of the investor.

Buffett called himself a "No-risk guy". 

 

[Parsad]

12 hours ago, crs223 said:

 

Why would you invest in a high risk bond when you can invest in a low risk bond?

 

If they provide the same return or the return you desire...why would you?  Cheers!

[ValueArb]

12 hours ago, Xerxes said:

without even reading about any of this, I can say with confidence that you are wrong. 
 

whatever this is, it is an infighting between different fiefdoms and power brokers with the Kremlin.  
 

The Tsar is above all of this. And Generalfeldmarschall Kietel, **cough** I mean Shoigu, is nothing to him. And most certainly, he is not even “coup” worthy as in not sponge-worthy. Even the head of Wagner, bowed before his master.  
 

You don’t get to be Tsar for 20 years by being an idiot. 

 

On the surface arresting Timur Ivanov seems like a very direct move against Shoigu.

 

That said I don't we disagree by that much. I will just point out that the Tsar has been incredibly reluctant to move Shoigu out, despite his many failures. So maybe a better explanation is that Putin Soprano is very tight with his capitans because they stole Russia together. Shoigu is either his Silvio or Bobby Baccalieri, either competently doing his bidding behind the scenes or incompetent but unassailably loyal.

 

Sometimes I imagine Putin in a rage over the failures in Ukraine that were directly linked to graft and corruption (like failing truck tires) and then Shoigu reminds Putin that he got the bosses share of the money they stole from the truck maintenance budget.

[Xerxes]

42 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

On the surface arresting Timur Ivanov seems like a very direct move against Shoigu.

 

That said I don't we disagree by that much. I will just point out that the Tsar has been incredibly reluctant to move Shoigu out, despite his many failures. So maybe a better explanation is that Putin Soprano is very tight with his capitans because they stole Russia together. Shoigu is either his Silvio or Bobby Baccalieri, either competently doing his bidding behind the scenes or incompetent but unassailably loyal.

 

Sometimes I imagine Putin in a rage over the failures in Ukraine that were directly linked to graft and corruption (like failing truck tires) and then Shoigu reminds Putin that he got the bosses share of the money they stole from the truck maintenance budget.

Even then I think Shoigu is a useful idiot that helps insulate Putin. More like Pauli !!

 

Below are the five marshals of the Soviet Union before the Great Purge. Three of the five that were most capable didn’t make it through 1937-38. 
 

The other two sailed harmlessly through WW2 even as they were incompetent. And were outshone by Zhukov and the rising stars of the new Red Army, but never lost their network and close association with Stalin. 
 

The two of them that survived the Great Purge were yes-men, personal friend and lackies. There is a premium for that. 

 

Edited May 8, 2024 by Xerxes

[Gamecock-YT]

https://insideevs.com/features/719015/china-is-ahead-of-west/

 

Quote

So, when automakers, tech companies and regulators push back on China, the sentiments that they’re just protecting our market from unsafe or security-challenged products feel hollow. Instead, it feels like grandstanding, and a tacit admission that they have no intention of trying to do better.

 

Instead of competing, they’d rather just shut out competition entirely. The concerns about cybersecurity don’t address the elephant in the room here: Your product sucks, compared to what China is putting out now. It doesn’t go as far. It’s not as well-made. It’s not as nice. It’s not as connected. 

....

If the U.S. and Europe get what they want—a crackdown on Chinese imports—it doesn’t feel like it would result in better cars. It feels like it would keep buyers of those markets locked to cars that aren’t executed as well. It’s nakedly protectionist because deep down, all of the Western auto executives and some hawkish China pundits understand that Chinese EV and PHEV models are more compelling than what European, other Asian, and American brands have come up with.

 

I’ve seen it with my own two eyes. We’re cooked.

 

Edited May 10, 2024 by Gamecock-YT

[mattee2264]

On 5/8/2024 at 9:37 AM, Parsad said:

 

If they provide the same return or the return you desire...why would you?  Cheers!

 

There is your argument right there. 

 

USA has a CAPE of 34x and China has a CAPE of 10x. 

 

In China you are getting about a 700bps equity risk premium. In USA you aren't getting any kind of equity risk premium (expect implicitly through future growth prospects).

 

Of course China is a basket case and no one is suggesting you should put 100% of your portfolio in China. But with that valuation gap there is probably a decent case for a 10-20% allocation via a MSCI China index (diversification is the way to go for a know nothing investor without local market knowledge or political knowledge). Naturally things could get a lot worse but over a 10 year period you can expect a decent return from such depressed valuations. 

[Ulti]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-ukraine-should-keep-striking-russian-oil-refineries

[formthirteen]

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1708.html

 

Quote

Given these instances and others, it is no surprise that the nature of modern warfare as understood by the PLA has drastically changed. In the last two decades, the PLA has increasingly recognized that war is no longer a contest of annihilation between opposing military forces, but rather a clash between opposing operational systems. In this new reality, an enemy can be defeated if its operational system can be rendered ineffective or outright unable to function through the destruction or degradation of key capabilities, weapons, or units that compose the system. As a result, according to PLA publications, modern warfare is now properly characterized as a conflict waged between adversarial operational systems.

 

Quote

This new strategy explicitly recognizes that joint operations taking place in the information age are increasingly non- linear as numerous types of units from multiple services continuously conduct operations throughout the entirety of the battlefield.

Not only are the modes of war fighting (i.e., systems confrontation) and methods of joint operations (i.e., nonlinear) unique to modern-day warfare, so are the battlefields on which conflict is waged. Systems confrontation is waged in the traditional physical domains of land, sea, and air but also in outer space and the nonphysical cyberspace and electromagnetic domains. As a result, specific geographical boundaries or specific strategic directions no longer fully characterize the modern battlefield. Winning wars—or at the very least, not losing wars—requires the ability to “wage comprehensive competition in all domains.”

 

Quote

While achieving dominance in one or a few of the physical domains was sufficient for war-fighting success in the past, systems confrontation requires that “comprehensive dominance” be achieved in all domains. For example, air dominance was perceived as necessary to achieve land or sea dominance in the 20th century. But under systems confrontation, information dominance is thought to be the core precondition to achieving dominance in other domains.

 

It seems the modern Opium War is waged with weapons like TikTok and Fentanyl. Social unrest in the West is partly self-inflicted and boosted by China and its strategy for dominance.