Political Posts

[Blake Hampton]

The China Securities Regulatory Commission, led by newly appointed Chairman Wu Qing, has also created a task force with the nation’s stock exchanges to monitor short selling and issue warnings to firms that profit from the wagers, the people said.

[Luke]

@blakehampton That's the beauty of emerging markets, cheap prices and more risky governance. If you dont want that, feel free to pay up for similar quality with prices more than double+less growth in your local country in the west.

Edited February 21, 2024 by Luca

[Luke]

We have got to appreciate how far china has come the last 20 years and extrapolate how much governance will likely improve in the next 20 years. I think, looking at their numbers and the development, things will look a lot better in the future. 

 

Naspers and Bekker had balls to invest 32m 20 years ago, it was a lot worse and people would have probably screamed similar things as they do today. Meanwhile that stake more than 1000x in that period

 

Buy quality in China if you buy at all, even Damodaran says so: 

 

 

 

[zippy1]

"Hong Kong (CNN) — 
Chinese companies are doing something rarely seen since the 1970s: setting up their own volunteer armies. At least 16 major Chinese firms, including a privately-owned dairy giant, have established fighting forces over the past year, according to a CNN analysis of state media reports.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/21/business/china-corporate-militias-resurgence-int-hnk/index.html

[bargainman]

On 2/9/2024 at 1:49 PM, ValueArb said:

 

Tucker just let him spew his fabrications and historical lies without any pushback, like any good journalist would do;)

What parts do you think were fabrications/lies?

[Spekulatius]

Pretty good 5 min summary from Michael Clark of the current situation:

 

[ValueArb]

13 hours ago, bargainman said:

What parts do you think were fabrications/lies?

 

Specifically his historical justifications for Ukraine being a part of Russia.

[ValueArb]

 

If it wasn't bad enough that SU-34s and A-50s are falling out of the sky on a daily basis, now 20% of Russia's steel production was disrupted by drones. 

[cubsfan]

7 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Pretty good 5 min summary from Michael Clark of the current situation:

 

 

Nice summary - he's a little soft on Zelensky though. He makes him sound like a freedom fighter, but I think the bloom is off the rose on the President.

 

Zelensky has suspended Habeas corpus, instituted martial law, outlawed political parties and elections, etc - so most of that is covered up - as you can't really criticize the guy as far as allies are concerned.

 

Personally, I'd like to see Ukraine get their US aid - but not without a secure US southern border, which is currently a catastrophe - and not too much to ask. Doesn't look like it will happen.

 

But any aid package needs to be audited as Ukraine is still among the most corrupt countries in the world. None of that is hard or too much to ask if you're giving a country $60B.

[Parsad]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blow-putin-europe-breaks-free-115227723.html

 

Permanent repercussion?  Cheers!

[Xerxes]

^^ every time i have read anything on YAHOO News concerning this war .... it was always a "blow to the Russians".

Even CNN (except for Fareed) gets on my nerve sometimes when they invite those overexcited retired general to "opine". 

 

I much prefer the good professor on Sky News or Koffman.

[Parsad]

Excellent 60 Minutes look at China/US relationship:

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-crackdown-on-american-business-leaves-investors-in-us-wary-60-minutes-transcript/

 

Recommend you watch the 60 Minutes overtime on China as well...discusses significant demographic issues China faces.  Cheers!

 

 

[Parsad]

1 minute ago, Parsad said:

Excellent 60 Minutes look at China/US relationship:

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-crackdown-on-american-business-leaves-investors-in-us-wary-60-minutes-transcript/

 

Recommend you watch the 60 Minutes overtime on China as well...discusses significant demographic issues China faces.  Cheers!

 

 

 

 

Also Ambassador Burns seems like a fantastic candidate to run for President for either party...why can't the U.S. get guys like him to run?!  Geez!  Cheers!

[ValueArb]

17 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Nice summary - he's a little soft on Zelensky though. He makes him sound like a freedom fighter, but I think the bloom is off the rose on the President.

 

Zelensky has suspended Habeas corpus, instituted martial law, outlawed political parties and elections, etc - so most of that is covered up - as you can't really criticize the guy as far as allies are concerned.

 

 

Sounds a little like, Abraham Lincoln?

 

17 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Personally, I'd like to see Ukraine get their US aid - but not without a secure US southern border, which is currently a catastrophe - and not too much to ask. Doesn't look like it will happen.

 

Give out one million work visas to emigres who can pass background checks and problem solved.

 

17 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

But any aid package needs to be audited as Ukraine is still among the most corrupt countries in the world. None of that is hard or too much to ask if you're giving a country $60B.

 

Corruption has declined significantly since Russian FSB agents started getting arrested.

[ValueArb]

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/macron-keeps-options-open-on-sending-troops-to-ukraine-riling-allies-19645362

 

Quote

Asked whether leaders at the summit had discussed the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine, Macron said: “Everything was discussed this evening, in a very free and direct manner. There is no consensus today to officially send, take responsibility for and endorse ground troops. But in terms of options nothing should be ruled out.”...

 

Macron declined to say which countries discussed sending troops to Ukraine at the Paris summit, adding that France was maintaining a position of “strategic ambiguity” regarding its own planning. 

 

“Nothing should be excluded in pursuit of our goal: Russia cannot and must not win this war,” he said. 

 

 

The last time France sent an army into Russia, it burned down two thirds of Moscow. My money is on Poland however, if they ever enter the war the Polish army will be in Moscow within weeks;)

Edited February 27, 2024 by ValueArb

[Pelagic]

Speculation I've seen is troops would be deployed to the Ukraine/Belarus border to relieve Ukrainian units stationed there allowing them to fight in Eastern Ukraine. Seems unlikely though given all the levers available to Western nations that they remain hesitant to use like sending meaningful long range strike capabilities.

[gfp]

Lex is on a role recently - Tucker Carlson today

https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman

[ValueArb]

Russia has lost ten of its most advanced planes in the last week (SU-34s, SU-35s and A-50s). I haven’t seen any authoritative explanation for how Ukraine has done it, there was one claim they had added modern targeting systems to giant obsolete S-200 missiles and secretly moved them close to the front lines. 
 

 Russia may have to rename the SU-34 “Hell Ducks” to SU-34 “Sitting Ducks”;)

 

 

[juno323]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-28/piano-sales-fall-in-china-amid-stock-rout-real-estate-bust

Middle class taking quite a hit.

[Luke]

I worked in the industry and can only point out how RIDICULOUS the prices increased in that sector, everything became more expensive, wood, labor, shipping. I want to buy a Bechstein piano but i am not buying now because prices are 30-40% higher than pre covid and i simply do not see it, waiting to buy something used.

[zippy1]

The sooner people get this behind us, the better.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-country-garden-faces-winding-up-petition-failure-pay-2045-mln-loan-2024-02-28/

[Hektor]

2 hours ago, juno323 said:

Middle class taking quite a hit.

 

Pay cuts! Sound like what happens in a capitalist system.

 

"her husband’s salary and bonus as a bank worker were slashed in half over the past two years"

 

"After her husband’s pay at a tech company was cut last year, quitting piano seemed the obvious choice."

[Hektor]

2 hours ago, juno323 said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-02-28/piano-sales-fall-in-china-amid-stock-rout-real-estate-bust

Middle class taking quite a hit.

Thanks @juno323. Looks like people were incentivized to learn piano

 

"Its popularity also grew as China began providing incentives for children to learn music, leading to a strong correlation between piano playing and educational success. For the past couple of decades, students who hold advanced certificates in classical piano have been able to earn bonus points toward highly competitive college entrance exams."

[Hektor]

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/02/26/jack-ma-vs-ken-griffin-ant-group-outbids-citadel-credit-suisse-china-investment-bank-ubs/

[juno323]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

 

Pay cuts! Sound like what happens in a capitalist system.

 

"her husband’s salary and bonus as a bank worker were slashed in half over the past two years"

 

"After her husband’s pay at a tech company was cut last year, quitting piano seemed the obvious choice."

Probably related to this article on Bloomberg..

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-26/xi-crackdown-on-hedonistic-bankers-fuels-industry-brain-drain