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wescobrk

By wescobrk
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Hektor Mentor

Hektor

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Parsad said:

It's like the government warrants issued by US banks during the GFC...they want to recover losses if there is any upside!

The situation sounds to me more like the Fannie/Freddie saga in the US.

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Viking
Viking

I think China is an important player in the war. China’s support of Russia is already accelerating the West’s move away from China. I am not sure China wants the West to accelerate its pivot even furt

Viking
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The incredibly high living standard the US enjoys today is largely the result of the global world order it imposed/built/lead after world war II (with, of course, lots of help along the way from other

Xerxes
Xerxes

In 1946, United States reigned supreme militarily and economically, relative to the rest of the world.    today in absolute sense, United States is far better place economically that it was in

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Blake Hampton Community Regular

Blake Hampton

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, formthirteen said:

The CCP is clearly not interested in sharing common profits with foreign investors. From now on, I will definitely assume 99% of profits from BABA and other Chinese utilities will not reach foreign investors until it's been proven otherwise; I have no interest in giving my money to the CCP. Sometimes greed get's the better of me though. BABA no more, LOL.

I want to start by saying that I'm not an advocate for investment in China. I followed Munger into BABA and then proceeded to slowly bleed to death until I decided that China was a no-go, especially when I thought about the structure of ADRs.

 

However, I don't see anything wrong with this particular situation, I believe bondholders should be punished. They are essentially financing a company that built property developments on down payments without ever finishing them. The bottom line is the customers who were sold a false promise are higher up on the claim ladder than some foreign bond owners.

cubsfan Grand Master

cubsfan

Posted
Posted

More on Ukraine's manpower shortages :

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/08/ukraine-soldiers-shortage-infantry-russia/

 

 But because units lack troops, deployments get extended — or personnel intended for the rear get pressed into front-line duty despite being ill-prepared for it. Troops who are mentally and physically exhausted because of overwork sometimes can’t defend their posts, allowing Russia — with more manpower and ammunition — to advance.

Hektor Mentor

Hektor

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, blakehampton said:

However, I don't see anything wrong with this particular situation, I believe bondholders should be punished. They are essentially financing a company that built property developments on down payments without ever finishing them. The bottom line is the customers who were sold a false promise are higher up on the claim ladder than some foreign bond owners.

+1

Parsad Grand Master

Parsad

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Luca said:

Its hard to hold chinese positions due to the horrible sentiment and bleak outlook/capitulation. I also get doubts sometimes and need some inner dialogue to maintain being bullish but its hard. It speaks for the distress and dislocation in the market.

 

That generally is when markets start to get towards a bottom...you need that capitulation where essentially everyone bails one day/one week.  The more you start to doubt yourself, the closer you are to the bottom.  Cheers!

Parsad Grand Master

Parsad

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, blakehampton said:

I want to start by saying that I'm not an advocate for investment in China. I followed Munger into BABA and then proceeded to slowly bleed to death until I decided that China was a no-go, especially when I thought about the structure of ADRs.

 

However, I don't see anything wrong with this particular situation, I believe bondholders should be punished. They are essentially financing a company that built property developments on down payments without ever finishing them. The bottom line is the customers who were sold a false promise are higher up on the claim ladder than some foreign bond owners.

 

Sure.  Bond holders would naturally take a cut after stock holders are wiped out and there isn't enough in assets.  But in this case, there is and bond holders who naturally would be the owners of the remaining assets are also being wiped out.  That's not right.  That wouldn't happen in virtually every other Western economy or for that matter most developed economies.  Cheers!

crs223 Experienced

crs223

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Parsad said:

But in this case, there is and bond holders who naturally would be the owners of the remaining assets are also being wiped out

 

How “remaining assets” were there?  Who received them instead?

Parsad Grand Master

Parsad

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, crs223 said:

 

How “remaining assets” were there?  Who received them instead?

 

There were $260B in assets on the books...are you suggesting the real estate portfolio was completely wiped out?  That $260B in real estate holdings in China are completely worthless?

 

If so, they've got far bigger problems than I even imagined!  Cheers!

ValueArb Mentor

ValueArb

Posted
Posted
17 hours ago, Xerxes said:

That is quite a coup for Tucker !

 

Man the first half hour Putin is going over a 1,000 year history. 

 

 

 

 

Tucker just let him spew his fabrications and historical lies without any pushback, like any good journalist would do;)

crs223 Experienced

crs223

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, formthirteen said:

I will definitely assume 99% of profits from BABA will not reach foreign investors

 

According to yahoo finance, BABA is paying out 18% of earnings as a dividend (1/5.44)

crs223 Experienced

crs223

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, Parsad said:

 

There were $260B in assets on the books...are you suggesting the real estate portfolio was completely wiped out?  That $260B in real estate holdings in China are completely worthless?

 

Someone on this thread said that leftover assets (after liquidation) is not zero and is/will be stolen from bond holders. I would like to educate myself so i can make the same claim.  Can someone explain (or link to) the theft?

Xerxes Grand Master

Xerxes

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Tucker just let him spew his fabrications and historical lies without any pushback, like any good journalist would do;)


Yeap 🙂

Tucker is there for Tucker. Exclusive interview. 

ICUMD Rising Star

ICUMD

Posted
Posted

Perhaps a good part of that $260 B in real estate is in unfinished homes. Seems like Evergrande faced a liquidity crisis. Not sure the partially finished homes in ghost towns have any residual value.

 

These ghost towns have likely been deteriorating over years, likely becoming negative equity (liabilities) so to speak.

 

I don't think money was intentionally stolen from bond holders and risk getting black listed on the bond market permanently.

Luke Grand Master

Luke

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2024/02/06/msci-china-is-priced-like-an-entire-soe-goldman-sachs.html

MSCI China is priced like ‘an entire state-owned enterprise’: Goldman Sachs

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/14/goldman-sachs-picks-china-stocks-even-if-japans-lost-decades-repeat.html

Goldman Sachs says these China stocks can win even if there’s a repeat of Japan’s lost decades

Edited by Luca
juno323 Apprentice

juno323

Posted
Posted

The challenge is that there’s no real way of pricing the political implications especially if things so south.

 

There’s a range of possible outcomes for investors, and using history as a guide, the downside scenarios are pretty dire.

 

The allure of “cheap valuations” is what attracts many investors to Asia.. but as someone whose lived here and seen the same story play out again and again, I would be more cautious.

Hektor Mentor

Hektor

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The Chinese economy just need some stimulus - like strippers buying the empty homes on credit. This isn’t exactly a hard problem to solve.

🤣

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