Dinar Posted October 9, 2022 Posted October 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Most would expect that the Russia/Ukraine special operation is going to end up a draw. Ukraine part of NATO, all annexed Ukrainian lands back in Ukrainian control, a new iron curtain on the border, and an agreement on both sides to withdraw short-term nukes from the frontier. No incursions into Russia, and no prosecution for war crimes. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63189627 The flip side is that on cessation of hostilities, large parts of Ukraine will very much resemble large parts of Germany after the bombing of WWII. Should reinvestment and rebuilding with state-of-the-art infrastructure, do much the same as it did for Germany; Ukraine becomes a future dominant regional economic power in the east. Level of corruption not much different to what it was in Germany at the time. The mystery is the path to peace, and the path to regime change in Russia itself. Lots of volatility, but the end point would seem to be pretty baked in. SD With all due respect, I disagree in one very important aspect. Germany was and is a fundamentally honest society that abhorred corruption. Ukraine (and the rest of the former USSR and Russian empire before) has had a culture of corruption for centuries.
Xerxes Posted October 9, 2022 Posted October 9, 2022 36 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: If you truly believe that Putin would unleash a nuclear holocaust when his special operation turns out to be a total failure, then Putin would be in the same zip code than Hitler. Can’t have it both ways - believe that Putin isn’t that bad and then believe that he unleashes nuclear holocaust, when he doesn’t get what he wants. Just remember, he isn’t really cornered. He can take his army (or what’s left of it ) and move it back to Russian borders. He does have a choice. Nobody has attacked Russia territory. admitingly it can go sideways and the scale of destruction would be many times that of WW2. You are not wrong ! but was that his original intent ? Or was it by virtue of being cornered. (I understand that he actually has a choice - but in reality he probably doesn’t, not everyone is Gandhi) Don’t forget that most of us in the West would gladly sponsor unleashing nuclear holocaust on an enemy city if we feel our “military’ honour” has been stained. I am referring to the survey done where a good % folks in the US would want to nuke an Iranian city of several million people, if a U.S. aircraft carrier has been sunk in the Persian Gulf. When I posted here I barely got a reaction. The only person (don’t remember who) on this board who really answered tried to make the case that nuking could be somewhat ok depending on the circumstances and rules of engagement. It was mostly silence from everybody else. I was shocked !!
Xerxes Posted October 9, 2022 Posted October 9, 2022 50 minutes ago, mcliu said: This Hitler analogy is absurd. Putin's wars: Chechnya 1990s to prevent Chechen independence Georgia 2000s to prevent Georgia from joining NATO Ukraine 2020 to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO The fact is the US has invaded many more countries over this period and killed far more civilians. To be fair, U.S. has also for decades safeguarded (alongside its self interest) the institutions of democracies that we all enjoy today which allow us to opine more or less freely.
SharperDingaan Posted October 9, 2022 Posted October 9, 2022 43 minutes ago, Dinar said: With all due respect, I disagree in one very important aspect. Germany was and is a fundamentally honest society that abhorred corruption. Ukraine (and the rest of the former USSR and Russian empire before) has had a culture of corruption for centuries. Agreed, but right after WWII that wasn't the case; the black market thrived, and bribing to obtain all kinds of industrial 'favors' was a very common practice. People had to live, there was little infrastructure left, and they did what they had to do. Per the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) Germany (80) is less corrupt than Canada (74), and less corrupt than the Ukraine (32). While corruption is indeed the regional norm around the Ukraine, it is not the case in Estonia (74) where blockchain is in wide use. Most would expect that the financing to rebuild Ukraine would be primarily 'western', distributed using blockchain, and that corruption would average out at around 53 [(74+32)/2]; or about as corrupt as a Cypress (53) or a Saudi Arabia (53). Not great, but at least tolerable. https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021 Cypress has long been a Russian money-laundering hub, and Saudi Arabia has long been the source of a good chunk of western oil and gas. Corrupt, but not corrupt enough to avoid doing business with. SD
Spekulatius Posted October 9, 2022 Posted October 9, 2022 (edited) Blockchain does not solve real world trust problems. You still need to trust that the real world reflects what happens in the blockchain. I can sell you a Ferrari on the blockchain and when you drive to pick it up, you find my 10 year old Hyundai beater. I guess that’s what the crypto brothers calls an NFT. FWIW, Germany after WW2 was a barter economy and with many people scraping by, it was certainly more corrupt than it was later. However, I don’t think Germany as a society was corrupt even back then. Edited October 9, 2022 by Spekulatius
changegonnacome Posted October 9, 2022 Posted October 9, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Just remember, he isn’t really cornered. He can take his army (or what’s left of it ) and move it back to Russian borders. He does have a choice. Nobody has attacked Russia territory. Never popular to take the other side of good guy/bad guy media narratives on the internet but I'll try my best. To be clear I dont think there are any good guys or bad guys in international relations..not us, not them. I think there are only shades of grey and maybe lesser versions of bad guys at the margins. Nation states are at the end of the day if you were to give them a clinical psychological diagnosis - narcissistic sociopaths. You said he's not really cornered.......but what if this war, as many have made the case for & I subscribe too, is an expression of Putin/Russia's sense that its very long term sovereignty & survival is at stake as NATO each year expands further East to his doorstep (for a 'defensive' organization, it sure starts to look offensive if you put on Russian/Putin military glasses) he is cornered and getting more cornered by the day. Very hard for people to think of 'their' side as an existential threat to another.......but regime/state existential thinking is rooted in paranoia, as it should be....we are talking about existence itself here which nation states are mainly concerned with perpetuating......when you see a scorpion in your bed, do you wait to think about its intentions?.....the only rational course of action is to assume it is an existential threat and jump out the window and destroy that scorpion if you can. Some people seem to think the use of nuclear weapons by him is impossible........I wish I had their confidence. This war is an expression of Russia's right to exist, its right to 'feel' safe & respected.....to take even the hint of existential threat thinking OFF the table.......put simply its right not to have a scorpion in its bed. There is no higher calling for a nation State with a nuclear arsenal. He was feeling cornered before Feb 2022, thats what precipitated the invasion. I can assure you he feels more cornered now & cornered nuclear rats are net-net & in aggregate not good for everybody. Sure he made it worse for himself but it doesn't change the math here. The answer is IMO to respect Russia's feelings of existential threat and back off. It is not the USSR but it is a great power by virtue of its nuclear arsenal & one can argue its energy reserves. Ukraine's sovereignty should of course be respected too but it should also get the memo that Ukraine's role is to be prosperous/pragmatic democracy that strives to have good relations with BOTH the East and the West. See you need to ask what started this whole Ukraine thing (and the Georgia invasion in 2008, just after the 2008 Bucharest NATO summit when Georgia/Ukraine were said to be on a pathway to joining NATO) in the first place......and it was Putin feeling CORNERED by the USA (some use the word NATO, I can assure Putin think of it as just the USA).........in the same way the USA might feel cornered by say China if President Xi supported/aided and abetted a coup/regime change in Mexico in 2014 and had subsequently placed his own son on the board of Mexico's largest gas company.....and calls had leaked of President Xi instructing the Mexican President to do X,Y,Z or else he wouldn't get financial/military aid. While China also was sending increasingly offensive weapons in the late 2010's/early 2020's to Mexico to support some violent skirmishes Mexico was having with the USA on its Southern border. The Monroe doctrine simply wouldn't allow what I laid out to occur.....Mexico would be invaded and become the official/unofficial 51st state. In existential threats there is no response too extreme, its god damn survival stuff.....its why people should alarmed about the path we are on.....a cornered rat with nuclear weapons & existential paranoia has the power to turn us all into cornered rats with thoughts of our own survival. I get tired of good guy and bad guy narratives.....there are rarely any truly good guys in international affairs....Hitler the notable exception but lets safe the Hitler comparisons for when they are warranted & lets hope they never are again.........radical pragmatism should be what we all encourage in our politicians.....if Fox news and CNN ran international affairs we'd already be on World War 50 by now. Edited October 9, 2022 by changegonnacome
SharperDingaan Posted October 9, 2022 Posted October 9, 2022 "Blockchain does not solve real world trust problems. You still need to trust that the real world reflects what happens in the blockchain." Nah. Blockchain reduces corruption by making it harder to steal the money without trace; can't get off the off-ramp without leaving a trace to either your bank account, or the ATM that you used. And there is no point to substituting that old beater, if you cant get the money - trace free Of course there are ways around CBDC/blockchain, but it requires more sophistication, and ability to pledge security. Simply remove 30% of the 'little fish', and the level of corruption automatically declines. SD
Dinar Posted October 9, 2022 Posted October 9, 2022 2 hours ago, SharperDingaan said: Agreed, but right after WWII that wasn't the case; the black market thrived, and bribing to obtain all kinds of industrial 'favors' was a very common practice. People had to live, there was little infrastructure left, and they did what they had to do. Per the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) Germany (80) is less corrupt than Canada (74), and less corrupt than the Ukraine (32). While corruption is indeed the regional norm around the Ukraine, it is not the case in Estonia (74) where blockchain is in wide use. Most would expect that the financing to rebuild Ukraine would be primarily 'western', distributed using blockchain, and that corruption would average out at around 53 [(74+32)/2]; or about as corrupt as a Cypress (53) or a Saudi Arabia (53). Not great, but at least tolerable. https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021 Cypress has long been a Russian money-laundering hub, and Saudi Arabia has long been the source of a good chunk of western oil and gas. Corrupt, but not corrupt enough to avoid doing business with. SD SD - Estonia is essentially German, or was. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were always a breed apart in the USSR. These were German provinces that became part of Russian empire for 170-190 years, and then independent again in 1917. Finland is the same story (except it avoided the Soviet yoke from 1938-1990). If I were to invest in Ukraine, I would consider it charity and assume that the money would be gone. It is the same approach when I lend to people - I assume that I will never see the money again. (I lent money twice in my life, in both case I did not expect to be repaid when I was asked for a loan, and both times was pleasantly surprised.)
mcliu Posted October 9, 2022 Posted October 9, 2022 (edited) edit: Looks like General was wearing a swastika bracelet, but just a result of image compression. Edited October 10, 2022 by mcliu
Spekulatius Posted October 10, 2022 Posted October 10, 2022 @mcliu if actually follow the Twitter thread , you will find out what it really is what you are seeing.
mcliu Posted October 10, 2022 Posted October 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Spekulatius said: @mcliu if actually follow the Twitter thread , you will find out what it really is what you are seeing. Thanks. Looks like it's just image compression. There's been many Ukrainian soldiers with Nazi symbols, good to know that at least the Generals aren't Nazis.
Xerxes Posted October 10, 2022 Posted October 10, 2022 Look like Kremlin is hiring Dr Evil as the new C-in-C overseeing the Special Operations.
RadMan24 Posted October 12, 2022 Posted October 12, 2022 On 10/9/2022 at 9:09 AM, Spekulatius said: The semi equipment companies like LRCX, AMAT, KLAC and others should see a huge hit from this. Revenue % From China per 2022 10-K LRCX: 31.4% AMAT:33% KLAC: 29% TER: 17% Even worse, the percentage of revenues from China has been rising for years. I don’t know how much of thee revenues is directly at risk, but I think it’s substantial. I am guess we will see double digit drops in these stocks. This is based on where customer facilities are located. South Korean firms with facilities in China have been exempt, for example, so what the impact will be is unknown, but likely much smaller than that those percentages indicate.
Spekulatius Posted October 12, 2022 Posted October 12, 2022 5 hours ago, RadMan24 said: This is based on where customer facilities are located. South Korean firms with facilities in China have been exempt, for example, so what the impact will be is unknown, but likely much smaller than that those percentages indicate. This is correct, I just wanted to point out the magnitude of risk here. Semi equipment sales to China won’t entirely go to zero. For example, the equipment to produce trailing edge nodes for analog semis won’t be affected as I understand it. I think the beneficiaries are MU and even TSM in the long run , because any competition from China is going to get kneecapped. TSM also sells into China (~10%) but I think that entails some re-exports as well, so likely impact is lower. In the long run, their strategic position has become more significant, I think.
Spekulatius Posted October 12, 2022 Posted October 12, 2022 First victim - chips are down for Yangtse Semi: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-suppliers-halt-operations-at-top-chinese-memory-chip-maker-11665573761?mod=hp_lead_pos7 RIP.
bizaro86 Posted October 12, 2022 Posted October 12, 2022 On 9/12/2022 at 12:19 AM, bizaro86 said: I had the most amazing experience today and this seems like the place to share it. When I was a teenager both my (now) wife and myself took a summer volunteer trip to Ukraine. We were mostly working with kids in a rural area, and it absolutely rips me apart that the 3-5 year olds I spent the summer reading to and playing games with are now almost certainly all engaged in a brutal war for survival. I'm often online late at night now because I can't sleep thinking about it. A bunch of us were billeted with an amazing family in this little village. They took care of us, fed us, and were just wonderful hosts. Today, my wife got a whats app message (kind of a friend-of-a-friend thing) that someone was looking for winter clothing for some Ukrainian refugees who have kids a bit younger than ours, and did we have any extras/hand-me-downs that would suit. As the conversation progressed, she found out some information about the family. It turns out that the family who billeted us in Ukraine ~20 years ago has fled the country. The parents, their two children, the children's spouses, and the grandchildren are all living temporarily with a family IN CALGARY (the medium sized Canadian city where I live). I have no idea what the odds of this are, it seems astronomical to me. Obviously we'll be doing the winter clothes and more, and we haven't made it down to see them yet as we just found out today. I'm sort of in shock and am a bit unsure of exactly what to do next, but had to share it somewhere and this thread seemed like a reasonable place. I've had a few people reach out about this, wanting to help. It took me awhile to get things sorted, as they needed bank accounts in Canada and gofundme has stricter verification for Ukraine related things. Anyway, they are settled with a host family now and looking for work, but need a vehicle to be able get to a workplace from where they are staying. The cost of a used vehicle plus insurance (for those without a Canadian driving record) is outside their means so I've started a gofundme for them. Absolutely no pressure (and if not allowed please remove) but if anyone wants to contribute you can do so here: https://www.gofundme.com/f/viktor-and-irena? Any help would be appreciated.
Spekulatius Posted October 13, 2022 Posted October 13, 2022 Looks like the impact is about $7B with the biggest losers being AMAT and LRCX ( not surprisingly) https://finance.yahoo.com/news/applied-materials-cuts-forecast-blaming-202509425.html
mcliu Posted October 13, 2022 Posted October 13, 2022 https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-universities-continue-to-falter-in-world-rankings-china-rising-11665535646?mod=trending_now_news_5 The risk to decoupling is that over time, China might surpass us in science & technology..
Spekulatius Posted October 13, 2022 Posted October 13, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, mcliu said: https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-universities-continue-to-falter-in-world-rankings-china-rising-11665535646?mod=trending_now_news_5 The risk to decoupling is that over time, China might surpass us in science & technology.. That has nothing to do with coupling or decoupling with China though. The US needs to keep an open door policy for able emigrants from China and elsewhere. Oddlots podcast has a good episode about China: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-13/dan-wang-on-the-extraordinary-moment-for-china-s-party-congress?srnd=oddlots-podcast#xj4y7vzkg 1) doesn't expect much change to zero COVID-19 policy after the big congress on Oct 16 2) Whack a mole everywhere (Property, gaming, Alibaba / ecommerce, education and now even booze !) 3) Trade war started by trump now continues with Biden (semi's etc.) Edited October 13, 2022 by Spekulatius
Ulti Posted October 13, 2022 Posted October 13, 2022 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000582505498 excellent podcast on what’s happening in China… is China relations/ chips and more
Xerxes Posted October 13, 2022 Posted October 13, 2022 The Economist Podcasts: Introducing The Prince on Apple Podcasts
Spekulatius Posted October 14, 2022 Posted October 14, 2022 What is the best way to get a summary of the Chine communist party congress that is starting today: https://www.scmp.com/20th-party-congress Arguably the most important event when investing in China.
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