Artificial Intelligence

[UK]

2 hours ago, gfp said:

Once again, I highly recommend investors take the time to listed to Jordi Visser's entire free video each week.  Easy to skip past his paywall product descriptions and into the extremely valuable summary of market trends and AI.  There is a ton of turbulence underneath the indices that are still very near their highs and we are vulnerable to a large deleveraging / de-grossing volatility event.

 

https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserLabs/videos

 

[backtothebeach]

Installed Clawdbot on my pacemaker. I'm sure it'll be f

[Milu]

4 hours ago, gfp said:

Once again, I highly recommend investors take the time to listed to Jordi Visser's entire free video each week.  Easy to skip past his paywall product descriptions and into the extremely valuable summary of market trends and AI.  There is a ton of turbulence underneath the indices that are still very near their highs and we are vulnerable to a large deleveraging / de-grossing volatility event.

 

https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserLabs/videos

I’ve watched some of his stuff lately. I have similar views to him in many ways but he does seem a bit too confident in his predictions. Not sure what kind of investing track record he has or whether he is just some intelligent sounding talking head. Don’t know much about his background.

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, gfp said:

Once again, I highly recommend investors take the time to listed to Jordi Visser's entire free video each week.  Easy to skip past his paywall product descriptions and into the extremely valuable summary of market trends and AI.  There is a ton of turbulence underneath the indices that are still very near their highs and we are vulnerable to a large deleveraging / de-grossing volatility event.

 

https://www.youtube.com/@JordiVisserLabs/videos

Agree on degrossing. To me, the market looks  like it’s on the edge with individuals stocks and even sectors making large moves so the whole thing (SPY) looks quite stable , while there is wild action underneath. This is often a precursor to a stock market crash.

Edited February 15 by Spekulatius

[Libs]

34 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Installed Clawdbot on my pacemaker. I'm sure it'll be f

Post of the decade! Hilarious

Edited February 15 by Libs

[Spekulatius]

35 minutes ago, backtothebeach said:

Installed Clawdbot on my pacemaker. I'm sure it'll be f

You aren't really living until you jailbrake your pacemaker.

[backtothebeach]

11 minutes ago, Libs said:

Post of the decade! Hilarious

Lol, I stole it from a Youtube comment.

[UK]

22 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

@gfp what would you by and/or sell in anticipation of any such events?

 

So I am nowhere as smart as gfp or Jordi, but this is my thinking (in progress):

 

The main take away for me from him (and this literally already saved me quite some money) is to be careful with bottom fishing in software and saas. My first instinct was to approach this as the usual garden variety sector scare, but I am not sure about this anymore. You do not need to listen only to Jordi to check you feelings about this, but he was a nice catalyst for me to do this (ant thanks again to gfp for bringing him up). Probably there will be opportunities, but you have to be very selective and i am not sure it is possible to have a large conviction on anything here, including MSFT or maybe even any other M7 company. Not like in 2022.

 

Now if you listen to some of his concrete suggestions, you will end up owning things like only TSLA from M7 (really?), PLTR (have no idea) and BTC (this one is interesting, but hard to stomach for productive assets aficionados, like me) AND all these bottleneck story stocks. The bottleneck story stocks thesis is the most interesting, is in the center of this rotation, but I have some questions and problems with it.

 

The biggest problem for me, is that not all, but these are mostly companies from the shitty industries (commodities, low roe, no pricing power, well maybe not currently:)), usually a businesses you do not want to hold for a long term. So yes this could work for a while, but good luck figuring out how and when it ends. Also i see a contradiction here a bit, because if AI is so potent, why would it spare disruption in some of the currently perceived bottlenecks, like chip design, chips and AI computing becoming more energy efficient, or even energy itself, I mean if you have near God like AI, likely you even do not need Elon's datacenters in space. And if you do not want to bet on human ingenuity to solve all this, well bet on AI's then:). And as particular with energy, I do not understand how there could even be a lasting bottleneck here with oil plenty and trading at such a price (at a time US is about to attack Iran). And if you have plenty and cheap oil/energy, longer term this solves many things, even without some technological breakthroughs . So here perhaps also you have to be very selective (maybe TSMC itself, maybe all these gas turbine blades etc) or to bet that we in still in a very early stages with things like metals etc.  Maybe the later is the case, not sure it is possible to bet a farm here though.

 

Which lead me to a conclusion (or is ti confirmation bias?), that you just have to stick with these really visible but also quality businesses as much as you can. These, as always, will benefit from the productivity and general economy if AI is like internet and if not, as someone already told, who cares then, no matter if it is Wall E or Matrix scenario (I would prefer Wall E, but with GLP:)).

 

Personally for me, and perhaps many on this board, the biggest question is how the insurance sector in general and FFH in particular, relates to all this AI disruption. Because it is kind of obvouils value and so perhaps could even benefit from all this rotation from saas or M7, but if this also about to be disrupted, maybe it is not too late to sell FFH at 8x and buy KO at 24x:))? Also I have no idea if this rotation could end up taking general market down (probably, because of the weightings and perhaps causing some minor financial crisis too), but again, even if it is as violent as in 2000, some old economy/value sectors and names worked very very well at the time and for the next 10 years, including BRK.  

 

Edited February 16 by UK

[73 Reds]

3 hours ago, UK said:

 

So I am nowhere as smart as gfp or Jordi, but this is my thinking (in progress):

 

The main take away for me from him (and this literally already saved me quite some money) is to be careful with bottom fishing in software and saas. My first instinct was to approach as the usual garden variety sector scare, but I am not sure about this anymore. You do not need to listen only to Jordi to check you feelings about this, but he was a nice catalyst for me to do this (ant thanks again to gfp for bringing him up). Probably there will be opportunities, but you have to be very selective and i am not sure it is possible to have a large conviction on anything here, including MSFT or maybe even any other M7 company. Not like in 2022.

 

Now if you listen to some of his concrete suggestions, you will end up holding like only TSLA from M7 (really?), PLTR (have no idea) and BTC (this one is interesting, but hard to stomach for productive assets aficionados, like me) AND all these bottleneck story stocks. The bottleneck story stocks thesis is the most interesting, in the center of this rotation, but I have some questions and problems with it.

 

The biggest problem for me, is that not all, but these are mostly companies from the shitty industries (commodities, low roe, no pricing power, well maybe not currently:)), usually a businesses you do not want to hold for a long term. So yes this could work for a while, but good luck figuring out how and when it ends. Also i see a contradiction here a bit, because if AI is so potent, why would it spare disruption in some of the currently perceived bottlenecks, like chip design, chips and AI computing becoming more energy efficient, or even energy itself, I mean if you have near God like AI, likely you even do not need Elon's datacenters in space. And if you do not want to bet on human ingenuity to solve all this, well bet on AI's then:). And as particular with energy, I do not understand how there could even be a lasting bottleneck here with oil plenty and trading at such a price (at a time US is about to attack Iran). And if you have plenty and cheap oil/energy, longer term this solves many things, even without some technological breakthroughs . So here perhaps also you have to be very selective (maybe TSMC itself, maybe all these gas turbine blades etc) or to bet that we in still in a very early stages with things like metals etc.  Maybe the later is the case, not sure it is possible to bet a farm here though.

 

Which lead me to a conclusion (or is ti confirmation bias?), that you just have to stick with these really visible but also quality businesses as much as you can. These, as always, will benefit from the productivity and general economy if AI is like internet and if not, as someone already told, who cares then, no matter if it is Wall E or Matrix scenario (I would prefer Wall E, but with GLP:)).

 

Personally for me, and perhaps many on this board, the biggest question is how the insurance sector in general and FFH in particular, relates to all this AI disruption. Because it is kind of obvouils value and so perhaps could even benefit from all this rotation from saas or M7, but if this also about to be disrupted, maybe it is not too late to sell FFH at 8x and buy KO at 24x:))? Also I have no idea if this rotation could end up taking general market down (probably, because of the weightings and perhaps causing some minor financial crisis too), but again, even if it is as violent as in 2000, some old economy/value sectors and names worked very very well at the time and for the next 10 years, including BRK.  

 

IMO asset allocators will do just fine.  Look no further than the namesakes of this investment board.  Two companies that have compounded BV at nearly 20%/year for their entire lengthy existences.  Will higher intelligence and efficiency help or hurt their prospects?  Very likely that if you DCA into both these stocks for the next several decades you will not be disappointed and can ignore most of the noise.   Who says investing has to be difficult and time consuming?

[UK]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

 Who says investing has to be difficult and time consuming?

I do not disagree, but at the same time, many people who says this, sits in all these passive ETF with a huge M7 exposure. Hell, one of the bigest, largest and most succesfull fund of the last 5 years in my little country, where nobody even knows what FFH is, is a technology fund, taking 1+20 for puting you into M7 and software exposure:)

[73 Reds]

40 minutes ago, UK said:

I do not disagree, but at the same time, many people who says this, sits in all these passive ETF with a huge M7 exposure. Hell, one of the bigest, largest and most succesfull fund of the last 5 years in my little country, where nobody even knows what FFH is, is a technology fund, taking 1+20 for puting you into M7 and software exposure:)

Well, paying fees for something you can easily do yourself (regardless of outcome) makes no sense.  To me, AI should make you want to invest in more of what you already own.  

[NnnnotSoSmart]

Apologies if already posted. Checked and didn't see it. Maybe the hyper scalers won't spend all that capex?

 

CONSILIENT OBSERVER INSIGHTS
Bayes and Base Rates: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future

Feb 10, 2026

 

Michael Mauboussin
Managing Director
 

Dan Callahan, CFA
Vice President

• The ongoing massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) aim to satisfy a huge increase in anticipated demand, which in turn has led some firms to offer rosy growth forecasts.
• To assess these forecasts, investors may apply Bayes' Theorem by starting with an initial belief and updating it as new results appear. Base rates are a sensible start for initial beliefs. 
• The base rates for U.S. public companies over 75 years suggest OpenAI and Oracle Cloud have a low probability of meeting their five-year revenue projections. Offsetting this are data showing rapid diffusion of AI, which signals major demand and short-term growth. 
• A large database of projects shows less than 10 percent are completed on time and on budget, which should temper overly optimistic expectations for the buildout of AI infrastructure.
• Companies sometimes pursue a preemptive strategy in which they announce big capacity commitments to deter competitors and entrants from investing.

Introduction:

 

The field of artificial intelligence (AI) has been around for a long
time, but use of the technology really accelerated after OpenAI
launched ChatGPT in late 2022.1 ChatGPT was the first
generative AI (GenAI) tool that was easily accessible. GenAI
creates data rather than simply analyzing it.

 

The introduction of GenAI has spawned a series of opportunities
and challenges for investors. One is how to analyze the
competitive dynamics of the companies vying to offer products
and services customers desire. It is unclear how the market will
be divided among the competitors and whether these businesses
will earn an attractive return on their investments.

 

Another is how GenAI will affect businesses in general.2
Introducing AI into corporate workflows presents the prospect of
improved productivity, but firms will integrate AI at different rates.
Adept companies may separate themselves from the pack.

 

Finally, GenAI will change how investors analyze opportunities.
While judgment is still necessary for investing based on analyzing
fundamentals, GenAI allows for more efficient gathering of
information, increasing the output of investors who use it well.

 

Companies now are investing more in AI than companies did in
prior general purpose technologies such as railroads and the
internet.3 As a result, the firms making these new investments
have to grow profits substantially to achieve a satisfactory return
on investment.

 

Sales growth is the most important value driver for most
companies.4 Private and public companies are estimating rapid
sales growth in the coming years, consistent with the excitement
of a new technology and the massive spending.

 

This report offers no investment advice. But it tries to assess the
plausibility of some forecasts in the context of history. We rely on
public disclosures and past results. The goal is to develop
reasonable beliefs about future states of the world.

 

We speculate on the potential strategic motivation for the flurry of
deals and announcements. Much of it boils down to deterring
competitors and potential entrants by signaling grand plans.

 

https://www.morganstanley.com/im/en-us/institutional-investor/insights/consilient-observer/bayes-and-base-rates.html

 

 

 

article_bayesandbaserates_ltr.pdf

[Spekulatius]

Anthropic now a “supply chain risk”. I guess you are either all in or against us.

https://www.axios.com/2026/02/16/anthropic-defense-department-relationship-hegseth

 

Supply chain risk is severe. No federal contracts and you can’t use the services or products if you have a federal contract.

 

Quote

• Anthropic is prepared to loosen its current terms of use, but wants to ensure its tools aren't used to spy on Americans en masse, or to develop weapons that fire with no human involvement.

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

AAPL ROIC will remain high. I wouldn’t say the same about the rest

 

[Spekulatius]

23 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

AAPL ROIC will remain high. I wouldn’t say the same about the rest

 

You don’t have to own the cow to sell milk.

[brobro777]

On 2/16/2026 at 4:07 AM, Spekulatius said:

Agree on degrossing. To me, the market looks  like it’s on the edge with individuals stocks and even sectors making large moves so the whole thing (SPY) looks quite stable , while there is wild action underneath. This is often a precursor to a stock market crash.

yea things appear weak, da juice in da indexes seem gone

 

Another sell off like the funboys freaking out over tariffs in march-April last year would be totally awesome man, it would be stone groove! 

[NnnnotSoSmart]

We'll probably see more of this.  Starboard to Tripadvisor: "You're not implementing AI fast enough."

 

"In recent months, we have invested significant time with Tripadvisor’s leadership team reviewing
the Company’s approach to Generative AI. Through multiple meetings with senior leaders, we
reviewed the Company’s product roadmap and AI initiatives, provided detailed feedback, and
emphasized the criticality of moving quickly and decisively as AI changes consumer behavior and
the competitive landscape. We have repeatedly communicated that the status quo pace of change
is unacceptable in an environment where speed matters and where incumbents are at risk of being
disintermediated."

 

https://www.starboardvalue.com/wp-content/uploads/Starboard_Value_LP_Letter_to_TRIP_Board__CEO_02.17.2026.pdf

 

[Kizion]

FYI

[MungerWunger]

More AI victims today (NET, PANW, CRWD, ZS, FTNT, GTLB):

 

 

Edited February 20 by MungerWunger

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, MungerWunger said:

More AI victims today (NET, PANW, CRWD, ZS, FTNT, GTLB):

 

 

That’s just a malware scanner. You can get these as freeware.

 

When is the AI replaces AI app come out? Should be just a matter of time.

Edited February 21 by Spekulatius

[DegenerateGambler]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-forecasts-revenue-top-280-230738108.html

 

OpenAI says its revenue will top 280 billion by 2030, do you guys believe it?

[MungerWunger]

Trending on twitter right now and causing another big AI loser selloff: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

 

Edited February 23 by MungerWunger

[Valuebo]

Lol that Citrini piece is pure garbage. Hilarious read tho!

[frommi]

On 2/21/2026 at 3:07 AM, DegenerateGambler said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-forecasts-revenue-top-280-230738108.html

 

OpenAI says its revenue will top 280 billion by 2030, do you guys believe it?

The chance that OpenAI is bankrupt at that date is probably higher.

[MungerWunger]

8 hours ago, MungerWunger said:

Trending on twitter right now and causing another big AI loser selloff: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

 

Wow, some of this stuff sounds ridiculous to me ... I guess network effects aren't a thing anymore. I am shocked by the market's selloff from this.

 

"Coding agents had collapsed the barrier to entry for launching a delivery app. A competent developer could deploy a functional competitor in weeks, and dozens did, enticing drivers away from DoorDash and Uber Eats by passing 90-95% of the delivery fee through to the driver. Multi-app dashboards let gig workers track incoming jobs from twenty or thirty platforms at once, eliminating the lock-in that the incumbents depended on. The market fragmented overnight and margins compressed to nearly nothing."