iSavings bonds yielding 7.12% currently

[gfp]

13 minutes ago, ValueMaven said:

@gfpvery helpful.  Thanks.  Why are you taking March and Sept rates when the rate resets in Nov and May?  Why the 2 month lag.  
 

also what is the source of that table?  I can’t seem to find that specific one on the BLS website 

 

BLS website -> Data Tools -> Popular series -> price indexes -> CPI-U

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?bls

 

As for why I used September's figure, I was just following your lead (like I said I don't follow this stuff closely and am not investing in these bonds)

" For example, The Sept numbers for 2021 were posted on Oct 13, 2021 for use on the "first business day in November"  "

 

 

Edited December 28, 2021 by gfp

[hasilp89]

I just started googling for this also. What @gfp is suggesting looks correct and the dates appear to tie at least for the current rate - This website tracks it - https://tipswatch.com/tracking-inflation-and-i-bonds/

 

Looks like we’re at 2.66% with 4 months to go

 

CPI-I index

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

 

 

[gfp]

20 minutes ago, hasilp89 said:

I just started googling for this also. What @gfp is suggesting looks correct and the dates appear to tie at least for the current rate - This website tracks it - https://tipswatch.com/tracking-inflation-and-i-bonds/

 

Looks like we’re at 2.66% with 4 months to go

 

CPI-I index

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm

 

 

 

 

Yeah - looks right on your link they had a clip from the treasury's announcement where they say explicitly that the November reset uses the CPI-U prints from March -> September.

Quote

“The composite rate for Series I Savings Bonds is a combination of a fixed rate, which applies for the 30-year life of the bond, and the semiannual inflation rate. The 7.12% composite rate for I bonds bought from November 2021 through April 2022 applies for the first six months after the issue date. The composite rate combines a 0.00% fixed rate of return with the 7.12% annualized rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U). The CPI-U increased from 264.877 in March 2021 to 274.310 in September 2021, a six-month change of 3.56%.”

 

[ValueMaven]

Great site.  Thank you for sharing.  Guy posts a lot of interesting material and analysis

[longterminvestor]

On 12/28/2021 at 8:08 AM, gfp said:

 

 

I'm not following this super closely, but I think you derive the 7.12% by taking the 6 month change from the data dates you state above and double it to annualize it  -

 

274.31 minus 264.877 is 9.433, which is a 3.56127561% increase over 6 months.  Double that and it is 7.12255%

 

AND THAT LADIES AND GENTLEMAN IS WHAT I CALL THE BLINDING FLASH OF THE OBVIOUS!!  THE CODE IS CRACKED.  

[longterminvestor]

see attached spreadsheet that checks out with formulas to track.  

 

IBOND SAVINGS CALCULATION.xlsx

Edited December 30, 2021 by longterminvestor
deleted personal info from Excel

[fareastwarriors]

Haven't touched ibonds in years but yet I'm here for the party. Put in 10k order today.

Hope I make the cut off!

[ValueMaven]

Welcome aboard @fareastwarriors - most of us will be double dipping in January as well.  Early modeling of the May rest rate looks like 4.5% to 8%.  If inflation the next 4 months matches the previous 2 and doesn’t slow down, the variable rate will be ~8%.  Right now it’s 2.66% with only 2 out of the 6 months reporting.  

Edited December 31, 2021 by ValueMaven

[ValueMaven]

Just placed my full year allotment for 2022 this morning. Dec 21 interest hits on Monday: 1/3/22 

[longterminvestor]

@ValueMaven Will be doing the same.

 

See attached 1970-1985 breakdown showing the rate as calculated using formula now.  This period is considered the most inflationary time in history so I wanted to run the simulation.  

 

For the rate to stay above 7% in 2022, the March 2022 CPI-U has to post above 284.  Which would be a 7.22% increase for 12 months.  From 1970 - 1985, the annual change from March to March was above 7% 5 years out of the 15 year period.  

 

My Mr. Buffett "And then what" analysis leads me to be optimistic about short terms prospects for this instrument however long term (beyond 3-5yrs) it becomes less interesting.  I see it as a good place to stash cash and earn decent, completely safe return.  

1970-1985 NUMBERS.pdf

[ValueMaven]

CPI comes out on Wednesday.  The first two months are already running at 2.66% annualized.  The May rate might be 6-7% again 

[ValueMaven]

I Bonds!   
 

CPI for December was up 7.1% year over year… and 0.3% month over month.  

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 1/8/2022 at 1:49 PM, ValueMaven said:

CPI comes out on Wednesday.  The first two months are already running at 2.66% annualized.  The May rate might be 6-7% again 

 

7% again

 

Went to a presentation by Bullard in recent weeks where he acknowledged that the Fed may have to be a little more proactive/overreacting to get inflation under control. He expects it to average like 4ish% this year so we'll see. 

[Spekulatius]

3 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

7% again

 

Went to a presentation by Bullard in recent weeks where he acknowledged that the Fed may have to be a little more proactive/overreacting to get inflation under control. He expects it to average like 4ish% this year so we'll see. 

I think I am going to put another chunk on by the end of this month.

[ValueMaven]

May-22 reset rate is looking to be well north of 5%.  Right now you are at 4.98% with TWO months left. 

 

Looks to be in the 6%+ range or higher.  

[hasilp89]

reloaded for 2022 on the last day of jan. 

[Spekulatius]

If we do get 8-9%, I think the "returns" this year will beat stocks. I have put a bit more in late January, but we haven't filled out family allocation for 2022 yet.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/u-s-inflation-data-to-capture-prewar-prices-rather-than-peak

Edited March 9, 2022 by Spekulatius

[ValueMaven]

You are at 5% already with 2 more reports left.  Gas prices are up huge m/m so that is going to add to the next inflation print for sure ...Figure 6-7% at a minimum ... 

 

https://tipswatch.com/tracking-inflation-and-i-bonds/

[ValueMaven]

https://tipswatch.com/2022/03/10/u-s-inflation-soared-0-8-in-february-hitting-annual-rate-of-7-9-highest-in-41-years/

 

For I Bonds. The February report is the fifth of a six-month string that will determine the I Bond’s new inflation-adjusted variable rate, which will be reset on May 1 for all I Bonds. So far, inflation from September 2021 to February 2022 has been running at 3.43%, which translates to a variable rate of 6.86%. One month remains, and March inflation is likely to be quite high. It’s easy to see the possibility of a variable rate approaching or exceeding 8% at the May reset, higher than the current rate of 7.12%.

[ValueMaven]

May reset rate is a whooping 9.62% !!!!!

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, ValueMaven said:

May reset rate is a whooping 9.62% !!!!!

 

Best type of fixed income exposure there is at the moment. Too bad you can't do more than 10k per year. 

[crs223]

It’s a “redistribution” from treasury buyers to those who have $10k to spare (the middle class).  I wonder why the USG offers these.

 

Thank you for starting this thread!

 

[Gamecock-YT]

6 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

 

Best type of fixed income exposure there is at the moment. Too bad you can't do more than 10k per year. 

 

Set up a Trust and/or get an EIN to do another 10k each, overpay your income tax for an additional 5k. So a few different ways to get past the limit. 

[thepupil]

Most recent print has me buying the full amount (I procrastinated a little bit) for 2022. Probably won’t hold but currently accreting 31% of my mortgage interest in I-bonds despite only owning 8% of my mortgage principal in them…love It.

 

 

[FCharlie]

Hey guys I really appreciate you all bringing this to my attention. I opened an account for my LLC as a place to hold a portion of my cash reserves. It makes absolutely no sense to keep excessive amounts of cash sitting in checking accounts earning 0.02% with this as an alternative.....

 

But as nice as it feels to get paid 7% or 9% on reserves, I must say, all I can think about is that I'm not actually gaining wealth, this is just the amount that everyone who's holding cash is actually losing via decreased purchasing power. Wow.