Indian Economy

[Xerxes]

In the short term democracy will always have its fits and starts, but in the long run it always pay off. 
 

 

my brainwashed simplistic Western view 

[Viking]

2 hours ago, Xerxes said:

In the short term democracy will always have its fits and starts, but in the long run it always pay off. 
 

 

my brainwashed simplistic Western view 

I think looking at the flow of people might be a good indicator. People ‘vote’ with their feet. It seems an awful lot of people from the rest of the world desperately want to get into the US/Canada/Western Europe. I don’t think your view is a ‘brainwashed simplistic Western view.’ 
 

Hong Kong provides a great case study. They went from a democracy to a dictatorship. My understanding is pretty much everybody who could get out got out (or made alternative arrangements to be able to exit at some point in the future).

 

How about Russia? My son is at an age where he would likely have been conscripted into the army and would be fighting in the war in Ukraine. No thanks (putting it politely). 
 

India will be interesting to watch moving forward. I certainly hope they continue to shift towards capitalism (and away from socialism). While maintaining their democratic/rule of law framework.

Edited June 5, 2024 by Viking

[Gamma78]

3 hours ago, Xerxes said:

In the short term democracy will always have its fits and starts, but in the long run it always pay off. 
 

 

my brainwashed simplistic Western view 

 

I completely agree. Which is why the results of this election are in no way a barrier to development and perhaps increase resilience over time of the growth story. India's growth is fascinating and very significant. But then again it must be - because it has a huge population of young people that need jobs. So growth is literally the only way forwards. 

 

@Viking - India doesn't really need to "choose" capitalism. It did that ages ago. Every capitalist society has its restrictions in terms of how open the economy is - the US has them (ask Chinese companies....). Europe certainly does (and gets a lot of shit for them). China has them in spades. So does Japan, Taiwan, etc etc. There are very few completely laissez faire capitalist economies - if any.

 

India is on its own path. "India needs to become capitalist" is old hat. That happened around 30 years ago. GDP growth since 2000's has consistently been pretty stellar - only drowned out by China's even more stellar growth in the early 2000's. FDI has been steadily increasing (across every government type, you name it). Restrictions have been steadily and continuously lifted. Perhaps not at the pace that some investors would have liked (particularly Indian billionaires, who frankly love having close friend they can fawn over in the government - again no matter what stripe that govt is). But continuously nonetheless. 

 

We will still see very significant growth in India for a generation. And all of Prem's remarks will still hold true (for example regarding expected growth of the banking sector). 

 

People tend to confuse their own personal return (I want an airport IPO  this year or to buy a public sector bank tomorrow) with the overall issues of the country. Maybe things slow down, maybe they don't.

 

But the Indian equity story is still strong as hell. Don't sell now, for crying out loud. This party is still just getting started. 

 

 

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, Viking said:

I think looking at the flow of people might be a good indicator. People ‘vote’ with their feet. It seems an awful lot of people from the rest of the world desperately want to get into the US/Canada/Western Europe. I don’t think your view is a ‘brainwashed simplistic Western view.’ 
 

Hong Kong provides a great case study. They went from a democracy to a dictatorship. My understanding is pretty much everybody who could get out got out (or made alternative arrangements to be able to exit at some point in the future).

 

How about Russia? My son is at an age where he would likely have been conscripted into the army and would be fighting in the war in Ukraine. No thanks (putting it politely). 
 

India will be interesting to watch moving forward. I certainly hope they continue to shift towards capitalism (and away from socialism). While maintaining their democratic/rule of law framework.

Broadly speaking I am not pushing back on any of this. 
 

you give an example of being conscripted to serve in Russia, the flip side is the person could be born as an enterprising lad in Russia and who in their 30s lived in Russia in the 1990s, or in Singapore in the 60s, Japan in the 70s. Not all sons of Russia serve. Sometimes you are born at the right time   
 

opportunities are everywhere. Whether one is there at the right time and age, is a different matter. 
 

but what West offers is a framework for a structured approach (works really well for families). For those seeking unstructured approach they better off elsewhere. 

[Xerxes]

Dan Yergin wrote this amazing book called the “The commanding heights”. 
 

it goes over each of the Asian economic power. It has been 13 years since I read it. Needs to be reread I think.  

[Thrifty3000]

On 6/5/2024 at 10:33 AM, Viking said:

I think looking at the flow of people might be a good indicator. People ‘vote’ with their feet. It seems an awful lot of people from the rest of the world desperately want to get into the US/Canada/Western Europe. I don’t think your view is a ‘brainwashed simplistic Western view.’ 
 

Hong Kong provides a great case study. They went from a democracy to a dictatorship. My understanding is pretty much everybody who could get out got out (or made alternative arrangements to be able to exit at some point in the future).

 

How about Russia? My son is at an age where he would likely have been conscripted into the army and would be fighting in the war in Ukraine. No thanks (putting it politely). 
 

India will be interesting to watch moving forward. I certainly hope they continue to shift towards capitalism (and away from socialism). While maintaining their democratic/rule of law framework.

At first governments build walls to keep people out, then eventually they build walls to keep people in.

[dartmonkey]

At first governments build walls to keep people out, then eventually they build walls to keep people in.

 

That's pretty pessimistic - I don't think most countries have ever prevent people from leaving.

 

But I'm curious, what governments are currently forcing people to stay? I can't think of a lot of examples. I don't think China prevents people from immigrating. And obviously the emigration ban that used to apply in the USSR and the Eastern Bloc has now disappeared. Even Cuba now allows people to leave, although passports are expensive. Are there any others?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

51 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

At first governments build walls to keep people out, then eventually they build walls to keep people in.

 

That's pretty pessimistic - I don't think most countries have ever prevent people from leaving.

 

But I'm curious, what governments are currently forcing people to stay? I can't think of a lot of examples. I don't think China prevents people from immigrating. And obviously the emigration ban that used to apply in the USSR and the Eastern Bloc has now disappeared. Even Cuba now allows people to leave, although passports are expensive. Are there any others?

 

There's the "physical" leaving and then there's actually leaving

 

The US allows you to go - so long as you continue to pay US taxes on your foreign earnings and etc. If you want to get out from the US taxes and associated enforcements, it's not easy nor cheap. 

[Thrifty3000]

46 minutes ago, dartmonkey said:

At first governments build walls to keep people out, then eventually they build walls to keep people in.

 

That's pretty pessimistic - I don't think most countries have ever prevent people from leaving.

 

But I'm curious, what governments are currently forcing people to stay? I can't think of a lot of examples. I don't think China prevents people from immigrating. And obviously the emigration ban that used to apply in the USSR and the Eastern Bloc has now disappeared. Even Cuba now allows people to leave, although passports are expensive. Are there any others?

 

I believe North Korea has the strictest ban on emigration. Other countries, like Iran, make it VERY difficult to leave. Some charge exorbitant rates to purchase an exit visa or passport, making it all but unaffordable for the average citizen.

[Thrifty3000]

“Freedom has many difficulties and democracy is not perfect, but we have never had to put a wall up to keep our people in, to prevent them from leaving us.”

 

- John F. Kennedy

 

’Merica!

[cwericb]

Interesting isn't it that Cubans can pretty much travel the world while Americans are essentially restricted from traveling to Cuba by their government. Freedom?

[Hektor]

8 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

If you want to get out from the US taxes and associated enforcements, it's not easy

Why is it difficult to give up US citizenship?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

1 hour ago, Hektor said:

Why is it difficult to give up US citizenship?

 

You have to pay to do so. 

[Hektor]

20 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

You have to pay to do so

Thanks @TwoCitiesCapital Couple of thousand dollars, I guess. That’s not big if one wants to exit USA. What am I missing?

[Daphne]

I know a Canadian medical dr who paid 80k to relinquish his us citizenship

[TwoCitiesCapital]

On 6/7/2024 at 8:30 PM, Hektor said:

Thanks @TwoCitiesCapital Couple of thousand dollars, I guess. That’s not big if one wants to exit USA. What am I missing?

 

Yea - it's not a few thousand for anyone that would actually benefit from leaving. 

 

I don't know the ins and outs of exactly what the exit tax and fees are, but it's my understanding it's not small

Edited June 9, 2024 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Hektor]

Thanks @Daphne @TwoCitiesCapital

[Alekbaylee]

Indeed looks cumbersome and pricey…

https://brighttax.com/blog/cost-to-renounce-us-citizenship/

[Gamma78]

Yes all your assets above a $2 million threshold are deemed to have been sold, hence you pay capital gains as an exit tax. 

Which is crazy. I haven't seen any other country do that (though the UK is trying to do that now with inheritance tax liability for people who decide to leave the UK). 

[Hektor]

Thanks @Alekbaylee @gamma78

[Munger_Disciple]

Why would anyone want to renounce US citizenship? You can live practically anywhere in the world while still being a US citizen and perhaps acquire permanent residency status where you live. Many countries like Portugal offer incentives for digital nomads these days.

[rohitc99]

34 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

Why would anyone want to renounce US citizenship? You can live practically anywhere in the world while still being a US citizen and perhaps acquire permanent residency status where you live. Many countries like Portugal offer incentives for digital nomads these days.

+1

I have lived in Japan, Malaysia, UK before we immigrated to the US. I am on Indian origin. We chose the US (canada was next choice)

 

I have seen other countries and each place will have its plus or minus, but US/Canada for all the negatives we can think of are far better - definitely for immigrants. I am happy to pay the taxes and grateful for the opportunities this country has given me and my kids.

 

I have friends in india, who are doing very well even by western standards. However they are going to spend a fortune to send their kids to do an under-grad in the US and then stay back. These are very smart kids and would do well anywhere in the world. 

 

Actions speak louder than words

[jbwent63]

On 6/9/2024 at 3:35 AM, gamma78 said:

Yes all your assets above a $2 million threshold are deemed to have been sold, hence you pay capital gains as an exit tax. 

Which is crazy. I haven't seen any other country do that (though the UK is trying to do that now with inheritance tax liability for people who decide to leave the UK). 

If you are a Canadian resident for tax purposes and cease to be so, you are deemed to have sold all your assets with the capital gains being taxed. Similar rules at death. If you believe you will return eventually, you can make an agreement with the MOF and post a bond to cover the estimated taxes just in case you don't return to Canada.

[Crip1]

On 6/9/2024 at 1:44 PM, rohitc99 said:

 

 

I have seen other countries and each place will have its plus or minus, but US/Canada for all the negatives we can think of are far better - definitely for immigrants. I am happy to pay the taxes and grateful for the opportunities this country has given me and my kids.

 

I

First and foremost, as a US citizen I appreciate you saying that. Regrettably, IMHO, there are far too many US citizens who use the right of free speech to do far more bi***ing and far less appreciating (this may prevalent in other countries, but my frame of reference is too limited to speak on this). Don't get me wrong, criticizing in order to try to make a positive change is admirable, but along with criticizing, one should be grateful for the opportunities afforded. 

 

-Crip

[whatstheofficerproblem]

18 minutes ago, Crip1 said:

I appreciate you saying that. Regrettably, IMHO, there are far too many US citizens who use the right of free speech to do far more bi***ing and far less appreciating

 

You ever exchange lunchboxes at school? You and your friend both brought Gumbo but you find your friend's 10x more tasty than what you brought? And your friend finds your Gumbo 10x more tasty than what he eats and you're both arguing that the other's Gumbo is better.

 

This is what happens, you get accustomed to something for most of your life, and in case of US citizens most have them have never been outside the country. They haven't seen the outside world, way too coddled which is why you see this phenomenon. It's the same with the generational gap, the boomers for example have seen so much in their lives that they are desensitized to a lot of stuff, the newer coddled generation on the other hand, everything is gonna end the world for them.

Edited June 11, 2024 by whatstheofficerproblem