Spekulatius Posted February 18, 2024 Posted February 18, 2024 (edited) Another thing to consider is that the Trump tax cuts from 2017 are due to expire in 2025. I can see this becoming quite a political issue and if they expire, it’s going to be a huge headwind for stocks. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/buckle-2025-promises-be-historic-year-tax-and-budget-policy Edited February 18, 2024 by Spekulatius
changegonnacome Posted February 19, 2024 Posted February 19, 2024 (edited) 4 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Another thing to consider is that the Trump tax cuts from 2017 are due to expire in 2025. For sure - and one thing I've taught a bit about is that if Biden gets his second term (and its a big if) - he is truly a man that can only be thinking of the next generation given how short the run way that remains for him in life and his political career......I never overestimate the US President's ability to get anything done (the domestic powers of the office are rather weak).....but what I do think the President can do is bring an issue from the back pages to the front pages of political minds and make it an agenda item in Congress.........the US national debt & the annual % deficit is now just irrefutably on a crazy trajectory but it is not yet a political problem that voters think about much so Congress doesn't either.....how ironic would it be if the man that racked up so many trillions of dollars of that debt over his career but directly responsible in the more recent past.....that once he'd been re-elected to the WH & where his political career had no where left to go.....started to speak stridently to the American people on the need for fiscal discipline and getting America's finances 'back on track'. What is clear in my mind - the political expediency of running ~7% budget deficits in a ~3.5% unemployment economy diminishes a whole bunch post Nov 2024 (depending on the outcome)....very interesting to see how it plays out. Edited February 19, 2024 by changegonnacome
Gregmal Posted February 19, 2024 Posted February 19, 2024 That won’t happen. It’s clear even now during his presidency that biden makes zero actual decisions. He isn’t even allowed to do interviews. He s a figurehead.
changegonnacome Posted February 19, 2024 Posted February 19, 2024 Yeah I hear ya - and listen anytime I suggest a politician might do something hard & selfless, I have to check myself.....my scenario above is kind of an impish outcome.......the most ironic outcome...in a world where Biden gets a second term....it would be hilarious to see him on the pulpit preaching fiscal austerity (after billions were borrowed/committed under his watch and he got re-elected )
hasilp89 Posted February 19, 2024 Posted February 19, 2024 Maybe it goes here. Can’t be the top when we’ve got etfs on selling covered calls on single stocks. ngmi https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/a-fund-with-a-94-9-yield-you-guessed-it-theres-a-catch-d11ab079?st=oicvrj0gk4pen9u&reflink=article_copyURL_share
Luke Posted February 21, 2024 Posted February 21, 2024 55 minutes ago, Paarslaars said: Well if that doesn't signal a top... Haha incredible
Luke Posted February 21, 2024 Posted February 21, 2024 58 minutes ago, Paarslaars said: Well if that doesn't signal a top... Haha incredible, 100% stock will go up on even 10% growth
Sweet Posted February 21, 2024 Posted February 21, 2024 (edited) Alright, what’s your feeling on Nvidia earnings? Stock has been trading lower the past couple of days. After the earnings will it be: - Up big? - Down big? - Little change? I’d be shocked if there was less than 10% move. I’m picking up - 10%+ Edited February 21, 2024 by Sweet
Sweet Posted February 21, 2024 Posted February 21, 2024 5 hours ago, ValueArb said: Now I’m thinking down nah, f it, it’s gonna baby
Spekulatius Posted February 21, 2024 Posted February 21, 2024 4 hours ago, ArminvanBuyout said: Bigger than the Super Bowl lol. There are a bunch of live stream with $NVDA ticket now on YT.
Hektor Posted February 21, 2024 Posted February 21, 2024 4 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said: This guy is seriously funny!
mattee2264 Posted February 21, 2024 Posted February 21, 2024 265% revenue growth in one year! And revenue expected to double over the next year. The gold rush continues.
Gregmal Posted February 22, 2024 Posted February 22, 2024 Can we get real though? Of all the bears who thought they were witty and funny and clever shorting this the last year, how many had earning inflecting like this? Answer? None. If I had to take a directional wager I would have been with them in terms of skepticism, but unlike those dimwits I’ve learned that when stuff seems funky, I can just walk away without doing anything.
Luke Posted February 22, 2024 Posted February 22, 2024 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: Can we get real though? Of all the bears who thought they were witty and funny and clever shorting this the last year, how many had earning inflecting like this? Answer? None. If I had to take a directional wager I would have been with them in terms of skepticism, but unlike those dimwits I’ve learned that when stuff seems funky, I can just walk away without doing anything. Yeah absolutely true, too much arrogance and not seeing the monster growth happening...
mattee2264 Posted February 22, 2024 Posted February 22, 2024 Other thing about Nvidia is the "gold rush" analogy. In the short term it doesn't matter how much gold there actually is in AI. So even if you are sceptical about the practical value of AI, so long as Big Tech, consumers and businesses are fascinated by it and paranoid that if they don't invest in it they will get left behind they will pay whatever it takes to stockpile as many of Nvidia's chips as they can. Over the medium term it seems quite likely that Nvidia will fall back to earth once they either lose their technological lead or good-enough products at lower prices force them to cut prices and margins and Big Tech have got through the initial investment phase and their annual demand for chip diminishes. But in the short term Nvidia is going to keep going higher until they disappoint investors.
Spekulatius Posted February 22, 2024 Posted February 22, 2024 (edited) 21 minutes ago, mattee2264 said: Other thing about Nvidia is the "gold rush" analogy. In the short term it doesn't matter how much gold there actually is in AI. So even if you are sceptical about the practical value of AI, so long as Big Tech, consumers and businesses are fascinated by it and paranoid that if they don't invest in it they will get left behind they will pay whatever it takes to stockpile as many of Nvidia's chips as they can. Over the medium term it seems quite likely that Nvidia will fall back to earth once they either lose their technological lead or good-enough products at lower prices force them to cut prices and margins and Big Tech have got through the initial investment phase and their annual demand for chip diminishes. But in the short term Nvidia is going to keep going higher until they disappoint investors. Yes, the gold rush analogy is a pretty good one. We don’t know how much gold rush is out there, but there is plenty of money sloshing around to buy shovel’s (NVDA chips). Eventually there will be an AI winter where funding dries up and only the most worthwhile projects and upstarts will receive funding. Thats a while out though. Edited February 22, 2024 by Spekulatius
mattee2264 Posted February 22, 2024 Posted February 22, 2024 I think it is getting the point where it no longer matters what the Fed does, or what the economy does, so long as AI beneficiaries continue to beat expectations the market will keep going higher. Especially as at some point AI optimism will be translated into optimism for general economic prospects over the rest of the decade aka Roaring 20s.
Blake Hampton Posted February 22, 2024 Posted February 22, 2024 (edited) I've been thinking about the situation at the FED recently and how it could affect long-term rates in the future. The FED has approximately $4.7 trillion in treasury securities on their balance sheet, and they have sold about $700 billion back into the market over the preceding year. This is evidence that the FED is focused on reducing their balance sheet and should be an indicator for higher long-term rates right? Also how many bonds can the market absorb and to what level? I learned about the economics of it all this morning and came to the conclusion that the effect would be the same whether they sell the bonds or not. This is because the U.S Treasury would have to issue the same debt anyway to pay off the principal of the FED's bonds at maturity, in conclusion causing the same outcome. It's odd though because I've heard the Treasury has been using short-term bills moreso to fund the government, and I wonder if they might ever do the same in that situation, but I don't know if any of that is true. Thoughts? Edited February 22, 2024 by blakehampton
mattee2264 Posted February 22, 2024 Posted February 22, 2024 'Generative A.I. has kicked off a new investment cycle to build the next trillion dollars of infrastructure of A.I. Generation factories.' Nvidia CEO understands what it is all about. Big Tech are gonna invest and so are all the start-ups that will easily be able to attract funding to invest in AI. And even if the resulting product is rubbish after sinking so much money into it they are going to market the hell out of it. And the C-suite and IT department of every company is going to want to invest in AI as well and so it goes.
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