blakehampton Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 On 2/16/2024 at 9:28 AM, TwoCitiesCapital said: This is concerning me as well. Was already on edge with the U.S. markets ignoring leading indicators, tax receipts, PMIs, composition of jobs, etc. But now we actually have corroboration from other countries that this slowdown is global and still nothing. Lines go up. Seems like this is going to be one of those things that appeared obvious in hindsight, but that markets were able to ignore in the moment. In the meantime, content to be heavy in bonds. Out of curiosity, what kind of bonds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 7 minutes ago, blakehampton said: Out of curiosity, what kind of bonds? I like intermediate mortgages and treasuries for my core bond exposure. Can get 4-6% YTMs here without doing anything sexy or trying. Things like RGVGX, JCBUX, TLT, ZROZ, and etc. here. Primarily buying in accounts where my investment options are limited like 401ks, HSAs, etc. Best returns here will come from a rate cutting cycle. In other accounts where I have a bit more freedom, I like short-duration spread sectors, CEFs @ discounts to NAV, agency mortgage REITs, and other higher octane/leveraged positions. This is for more "oomph" if the economy manages to avoid/delay a recession. 5-10% expected returns here aren't hard in a scenario where we avoid a hard landing OR keep hiking rates. JSCP --> 5.9% YTM @ 2.7 years of duration JLS --> 10+% yield @ 10+% discount to NAV w/ sub-2 years duration AGNC stock --> ~15% yield at the moment TLT call spreads for leveraged duration exposure Have also been looking at some other CEFs (like WIW and WIA for leveraged TIPS exposure), but am waiting to be opportunistic when discounts are widening. Ultimately, my positioning is motivated by 3 things: 1) I work in finance and my compensation is impacted by equity returns - I like to have diversification to equities for this 2) I don't need anything higher than 6-7% returns to retire comfortably in 25-30 years. If I can get that in fixed income, why take the risk in equities? 3) I believe that history demonstrates fixed income will likely outperform equities in environments of volatile inflation and economic weakness. I expect both over the next few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) Another thing to consider is that the Trump tax cuts from 2017 are due to expire in 2025. I can see this becoming quite a political issue and if they expire, it’s going to be a huge headwind for stocks. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/buckle-2025-promises-be-historic-year-tax-and-budget-policy Edited February 18 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
changegonnacome Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 (edited) 4 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Another thing to consider is that the Trump tax cuts from 2017 are due to expire in 2025. For sure - and one thing I've taught a bit about is that if Biden gets his second term (and its a big if) - he is truly a man that can only be thinking of the next generation given how short the run way that remains for him in life and his political career......I never overestimate the US President's ability to get anything done (the domestic powers of the office are rather weak).....but what I do think the President can do is bring an issue from the back pages to the front pages of political minds and make it an agenda item in Congress.........the US national debt & the annual % deficit is now just irrefutably on a crazy trajectory but it is not yet a political problem that voters think about much so Congress doesn't either.....how ironic would it be if the man that racked up so many trillions of dollars of that debt over his career but directly responsible in the more recent past.....that once he'd been re-elected to the WH & where his political career had no where left to go.....started to speak stridently to the American people on the need for fiscal discipline and getting America's finances 'back on track'. What is clear in my mind - the political expediency of running ~7% budget deficits in a ~3.5% unemployment economy diminishes a whole bunch post Nov 2024 (depending on the outcome)....very interesting to see how it plays out. Edited February 19 by changegonnacome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 That won’t happen. It’s clear even now during his presidency that biden makes zero actual decisions. He isn’t even allowed to do interviews. He s a figurehead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
changegonnacome Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Yeah I hear ya - and listen anytime I suggest a politician might do something hard & selfless, I have to check myself.....my scenario above is kind of an impish outcome.......the most ironic outcome...in a world where Biden gets a second term....it would be hilarious to see him on the pulpit preaching fiscal austerity (after billions were borrowed/committed under his watch and he got re-elected ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hasilp89 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Maybe it goes here. Can’t be the top when we’ve got etfs on selling covered calls on single stocks. ngmi https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/a-fund-with-a-94-9-yield-you-guessed-it-theres-a-catch-d11ab079?st=oicvrj0gk4pen9u&reflink=article_copyURL_share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paarslaars Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Well if that doesn't signal a top... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 55 minutes ago, Paarslaars said: Well if that doesn't signal a top... Haha incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 58 minutes ago, Paarslaars said: Well if that doesn't signal a top... Haha incredible, 100% stock will go up on even 10% growth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 I say stock will move up 10% after hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueArb Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArminvanBuyout Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Bigger than the Super Bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 (edited) Alright, what’s your feeling on Nvidia earnings? Stock has been trading lower the past couple of days. After the earnings will it be: - Up big? - Down big? - Little change? I’d be shocked if there was less than 10% move. I’m picking up - 10%+ Edited February 21 by Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 5 hours ago, ValueArb said: Now I’m thinking down nah, f it, it’s gonna baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Munger_Disciple Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 This guy is seriously funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 hours ago, ArminvanBuyout said: Bigger than the Super Bowl lol. There are a bunch of live stream with $NVDA ticket now on YT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hektor Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said: This guy is seriously funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattee2264 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 265% revenue growth in one year! And revenue expected to double over the next year. The gold rush continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 As i said stock up 10% after hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregmal Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Can we get real though? Of all the bears who thought they were witty and funny and clever shorting this the last year, how many had earning inflecting like this? Answer? None. If I had to take a directional wager I would have been with them in terms of skepticism, but unlike those dimwits I’ve learned that when stuff seems funky, I can just walk away without doing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: Can we get real though? Of all the bears who thought they were witty and funny and clever shorting this the last year, how many had earning inflecting like this? Answer? None. If I had to take a directional wager I would have been with them in terms of skepticism, but unlike those dimwits I’ve learned that when stuff seems funky, I can just walk away without doing anything. Yeah absolutely true, too much arrogance and not seeing the monster growth happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattee2264 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Other thing about Nvidia is the "gold rush" analogy. In the short term it doesn't matter how much gold there actually is in AI. So even if you are sceptical about the practical value of AI, so long as Big Tech, consumers and businesses are fascinated by it and paranoid that if they don't invest in it they will get left behind they will pay whatever it takes to stockpile as many of Nvidia's chips as they can. Over the medium term it seems quite likely that Nvidia will fall back to earth once they either lose their technological lead or good-enough products at lower prices force them to cut prices and margins and Big Tech have got through the initial investment phase and their annual demand for chip diminishes. But in the short term Nvidia is going to keep going higher until they disappoint investors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) 21 minutes ago, mattee2264 said: Other thing about Nvidia is the "gold rush" analogy. In the short term it doesn't matter how much gold there actually is in AI. So even if you are sceptical about the practical value of AI, so long as Big Tech, consumers and businesses are fascinated by it and paranoid that if they don't invest in it they will get left behind they will pay whatever it takes to stockpile as many of Nvidia's chips as they can. Over the medium term it seems quite likely that Nvidia will fall back to earth once they either lose their technological lead or good-enough products at lower prices force them to cut prices and margins and Big Tech have got through the initial investment phase and their annual demand for chip diminishes. But in the short term Nvidia is going to keep going higher until they disappoint investors. Yes, the gold rush analogy is a pretty good one. We don’t know how much gold rush is out there, but there is plenty of money sloshing around to buy shovel’s (NVDA chips). Eventually there will be an AI winter where funding dries up and only the most worthwhile projects and upstarts will receive funding. Thats a while out though. Edited February 22 by Spekulatius Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattee2264 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I think it is getting the point where it no longer matters what the Fed does, or what the economy does, so long as AI beneficiaries continue to beat expectations the market will keep going higher. Especially as at some point AI optimism will be translated into optimism for general economic prospects over the rest of the decade aka Roaring 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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