Have We Hit The Top?

[Gregmal]

To be fair Eric, you can undo everything the previous guy did, including creating an overnight border crisis for virtually no reason, but your hands are tied on this? If his job was to “fix” everything the last guy did wrong, which is what all the experts told us he would do, how come he fucked up everything that was done right and left in place the stuff that needed fixing? 

[ERICOPOLY]

5 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

But when Putin messed with Trump - he got clobbered and stayed in his lane.

 

He withdrew US forces, leaving ISIS for the next Administration to deal with.

 

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/isis-leader-killed-us-raid-syria

 

[cubsfan]

38 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

He withdrew US forces, leaving ISIS for the next Administration to deal with.

 

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/isis-leader-killed-us-raid-syria

 

 

Wrong again Eric - 

 

Trump made no secret about his objectives in Syria:

 

1- Protect US troops 

2- Defeat ISIS

3- Get out of Syria

 

He accomplished all three - and whenever threatened by Putin, Assad or the Iranians - he just kicked their asses.

 

Of course, Obama couldn't afford to do that, as he wanted his lasting legacy to be the Iranian Nuclear deal, so

he could get another Nobel Prize.  He couldn't piss off the Mullahs. Obama got his deal, but it blew up in his face.

 

But hey, at least the Iranians were happy!

[ERICOPOLY]

3 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Wrong again Eric - 

 

Trump made no secret about his objectives in Syria:

 

1- Protect US troops 

2- Defeat ISIS

3- Get out of Syria

 

He accomplished all three - and whenever threatened by Putin, Assad or the Iranians - he just kicked their asses.

 

Of course, Obama couldn't afford to do that, as he wanted his lasting legacy to be the Iranian Nuclear deal, so

he could get another Nobel Prize.  He couldn't piss off the Mullahs. Obama got his deal, but it blew up in his face.

 

But hey, at least the Iranians were happy!

 

1.  He telegraphed the military's retreat, endangering US troops who were indeed attacked as a result.  

2.  Apparently not.  

3.  Sent a message to Putin that America won't stand with our allies.

[Gregmal]

This thread is definitely dunzo LOL. But then again, the title is “the top is coming” and that happened a year ago. New thread topic suggestions relevant to ongoing discussion could be “how to make a fortune off crisis”, “the situation in Ukraine” or “I got duped into voting for Brandon and he just made things worse”. The later could potentially be in the politics section.

[cubsfan]

^^ Ok Greg - I'm done.  Apologies.

[Castanza]

58 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

 

He withdrew US forces, leaving ISIS for the next Administration to deal with.

 

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/isis-leader-killed-us-raid-syria

 

Eric you should go talk to some troops and see how they feel about current leadership vs the last administration. 
 

Obama was generally fine with most troops and pretty balanced. But definitely had US troops on a tight leash. 

 

Trump had the troops backs and let them do what they do best. The objective went from allowing OSIS to exists, to eradicating ISIS (ask Eddie Gallagher, Mark de Alencar Moab bomb response). 

The jury is still out in Biden though. I know first consensus is almost nobody trusted him. Guess we will see 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Castanza

[Castanza]

5 hours ago, barminov said:

 

You're absolutely right about the type of people that support Russia...it tends to be the older crowd. Partly nostalgia, partly some sort of yearning for the "greatness" of the Soviet Union. The Pro-Russian population is in the South and East of the country...think the Ukrainian version of the "Rust Belt." The thing is, before the annexation of Crimea and the DNR/LNR, there was a sizeable % of the population that supported Russia. Now, its around 10%, at best. The regions/areas that were extremely pro-Russian are no longer part of Ukraine. 

 

Regarding the vote in Crimea, it happened after the "little green men" (Russian regulars) took over the peninsula. No sane person will argue that in an honest vote, Crimea wouldn't choose Russia, but the numbers are skewed because your vote will be different when someone is holding an AK 2 meters behind you. 20% of the Crimean population are Tatars. You can read about what the Soviet authorities did to them, but there's no way they are voting to join Russia. I think in an honest vote around 70% would vote to join Russia. 

Pretty interesting, thanks for sharing. If I may, which part of Ukraine are you from? East or West? 

[ERICOPOLY]

1 hour ago, Castanza said:

Eric you should go talk to some troops and see how they feel about current leadership vs the last administration. 
 

I don’t hold a positive opinion of Biden.  But the Afghanistan disaster’s seed was sown when Trump fumbled the negotiations with the Taliban when he agreed to a deadline for withdrawal.

 

John Bolton made it very clear that the withdrawal deadline was 100% Trump’s doing, he wanted his name nowhere near that agreement. 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 14, 2022 by ERICOPOLY

[Castanza]

41 minutes ago, ERICOPOLY said:

I don’t hold a positive opinion of Biden.  But the Afghanistan disaster’s seed was sown when Trump fumbled the negotiations with the Taliban when he agreed to a deadline for withdrawal.

 

John Bolton made it very clear that the withdrawal deadline was 100% Trump’s doing, he wanted his name nowhere near that agreement. 

 

 

 

 

The Doha Agreement came with stipulations. The Taliban had commitments that they had to keep or the US was not obligated to withdraw. Biden used the Trump agreement as a scapegoat argument for being weak. Biden should have free a pair and told the Taliban the US isn’t leaving until they abide by the terms agreed upon. Biden had ZERO obligation to withdraw. 
 

eh, this is too far into the weeds at this point.

 

How are we making money off all this? 

[Spekulatius]

This thread has outlived its usefulness.

[Sunrider]

20 hours ago, Castanza said:

Eric you should go talk to some troops and see how they feel about current leadership vs the last administration. 
 

Obama was generally fine with most troops and pretty balanced. But definitely had US troops on a tight leash. 

 

Trump had the troops backs and let them do what they do best. The objective went from allowing OSIS to exists, to eradicating ISIS (ask Eddie Gallagher, Mark de Alencar Moab bomb response). 

The jury is still out in Biden though. I know first consensus is almost nobody trusted him. Guess we will see 

The back of the troops?

 

wasn’t he the guy who didn’t want to go stand in the rain in France to honour the fallen of ww2 because … well … he didn’t like rain and considered them ‘losers’?

 

whether you’re left right centre or up or down I think it’s pretty obvious that djt only ever had and will only ever have one person’s back: his own. (And yes I did speak to people about this who served)

[ValueArb]

Between Deficits Donald, Borrowing Joe Biden, OweBama, and George "natiional debt went woosh" Bush, there has been a lot to criticize the last twenty years for a fiscal conservative.

[barminov]

On 2/13/2022 at 3:24 PM, Castanza said:

Pretty interesting, thanks for sharing. If I may, which part of Ukraine are you from? East or West? 

Central. Born and raised in Kyiv, but I have relatives from Chernihiv to Cherkasy, pretty much all over that North Central region. 

[Gregmal]

Both Putin and Ukraine folks said the invasion talk was hysteria. Some “US sources” said it was happening any day now. While I don’t think either outcome is all that material to the markets, is there a point where we start throwing these US news peddlers and information sources into the same camp as the experts who give us polling numbers for the elections? Seems the biases really get running here and just like with some politicians, any time an anti china or anti Russian story can get a reaction, some jerk off throws it out there. Then when they get called out it’s an “honest mistake” LOL or they some how insist they were right anyway. It’s not even worth paying attention to most news sources at all anymore. LG at Cleveland cliffs said it wonderfully on the last call. We haven’t been an iron ore company for years but some jerk off substitute teacher on cnbc called us one yesterday and used it as his reason for selling the stock. 

[Blugolds11]

16 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Both Putin and Ukraine folks said the invasion talk was hysteria. Some “US sources” said it was happening any day now. While I don’t think either outcome is all that material to the markets, is there a point where we start throwing these US news peddlers and information sources into the same camp as the experts who give us polling numbers for the elections? Seems the biases really get running here and just like with some politicians, any time an anti china or anti Russian story can get a reaction, some jerk off throws it out there. Then when they get called out it’s an “honest mistake” LOL or they some how insist they were right anyway. It’s not even worth paying attention to most news sources at all anymore. LG at Cleveland cliffs said it wonderfully on the last call. We haven’t been an iron ore company for years but some jerk off substitute teacher on cnbc called us one yesterday and used it as his reason for selling the stock. 

 

I havent watched the news in a couple years, in fact I am usually at least a week or two behind world events, I find it less stressful and immaterial to my daily life anyway. As it pertains to investing I pay attention to some degree but overall I think ignorance to some degree is bliss. 

 

To be fair though...lets suppose that Russia did intend to invade this week...however info was leaked and they knew their plan in detail...wouldnt that be the play for the Russians to make? JK guise...see we told you we were just playin war! Back out and then make it seem like the world overreacted? MSM on either side doesnt carry much weight with me, so Im not arguing that their reports are credible, I think both sides have done enough that any rational person should take anything they see reported with a grain of salt...but if I was picking a fight at the bar, and the bartender told me to knock it off..and I told her I was just teasing...then took off my jacket...rolled up my sleeves, and have an empty bottle in my hand staring the other guy down...she calls the cops and what would be the first thing I would say? I told her I was just teasing, jeez settle down you're overreacting! I wasnt really gonna do anything! 

 

I was in Rome shortly after the Crimea incident and met a Russian guy my age and had the chance to ask him a bunch of questions over a couple days, super cool guy and it was interesting hearing the different viewpoints between the younger generation and the older generation Russian population, it was very interesting to get the take of someone who was actually in country and knew how the people felt/thought. (admittedly small data set) I dont still have contact with him but I have a buddy from HS that married a girl from Estonia and now lives there, they have friends/family in Ukraine so I sent him a message a couple days ago asking for his take as its the closest to what I consider "real" info I have, to summarize, the general feeling at least from them and their cohorts was that Putin wasnt just wasting time. Again, small data set so take that for what its worth. 

 

But again to your point, thats what happens when media cries wolf all the time and everything is a "headline"...creditability goes out the window. When I did follow the news more closely I found non-US sources to seem to do more factual reporting "just the facts ma'am" rather than spinning it one direction or the other. Im sure they are all guilty of it to some degree, it would be naïve to not think so, but at least at face value it didnt seem to make me question everything like the big name guys here in the states. Some of the stuff on CNN/FOX seems like it belongs in the National Enquirer, at least for me its a waste of time. 

[Gregmal]

Yea financial people I talk to are generally surprised when I admit I haven't watched CNBC or Bloomberg TV since maybe 2015. Theres many other ways to get info from the world and sift through whats relevant and useless/useful.

 

In the US/North America people have this awful tendency to take hook, line and sinker what suites them. If they are, lets call it "anti chicken noodle soup", its amazing how many folks go get their news from places that have an "anti chicken noodle soup" agenda, and then when they get headlines or stories that shit on chicken noodle soup, turn around and cite those sources to others as "facts" and reasons to say I told you so...and then more often then not end up being wrong and yet go make the same mistake again the next time theres a story about chicken noodle soup. 

[Blugolds11]

Also, just to reiterate what @ barminov said....spending those two days talking to that Russian fella in Rome...what he told me regarding Crimea was almost exactly verbatim as barminov described it. 

 

Specifically the part about: 

 

"You're absolutely right about the type of people that support Russia...it tends to be the older crowd. Partly nostalgia, partly some sort of yearning for the "greatness" of the Soviet Union. The Pro-Russian population is in the South and East of the country...think the Ukrainian version of the "Rust Belt." . 

 

Regarding the vote in Crimea, it happened after the "little green men" (Russian regulars) took over the peninsula. No sane person will argue that in an honest vote, Crimea wouldn't choose Russia, but the numbers are skewed because your vote will be different when someone is holding an AK 2 meters behind you."

 

I specifically remember him saying, "how would you vote if there were AK's and tanks outside the voting booth" I remember him saying that specifically because it made an impression on me as someone from the states. I also remember him saying how the older generation romanticized the "glory days" and how I didnt quite get that because I didnt think the Soviet Union was that great, in confused me as to why they would yearn for that. Maybe the power but not the living conditions? He said that the younger generation is more globalized now and the parents still watch the state propaganda and buy into that while the younger generation who travel etc see it more for what it is..Again..small data set but it was interesting to hear the same basic gist from Barminov.

 

 

[JAK]

Not directly related, but the thread above reminds me of an afternoon killing time in a bar in Baku, Azerbaijan a few years back. Got talking to the barman. He asked me if I wanted to buy some Soviet Rubles as a souvenir. I asked him if her preferred the old days, or independence. He said under the Soviets he was a good engineer, and he got paid a little extra by his bosses for being good at his job. However, under the new regime, the good jobs were reserved for friends of those in power, so you needed someone to pull strings for you. He didn't know anyone, so lost his job and ended up working minimum wage in a bar, selling Roubles, other souvenirs, and I swear, what seemed like household products from inside his jacket, on the sly to make ends meet. Thought it was interesting, as an outsider, it might seem like the choice would be about politics, independence, or ideology, or "freedom", but to him, that was academic, the old system allowed him to put more bread on his table, and it was fairer too. Again, not directly comparable, Azerbaijan, was definitely more frying pan to fire, than Ukraine. Just thought it was interesting. Not often you get the on-the-ground perspective on things. 

[ERICOPOLY]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Yea financial people I talk to are generally surprised when I admit I haven't watched CNBC or Bloomberg TV since maybe 2015. Theres many other ways to get info from the world and sift through whats relevant and useless/useful.

 

In the US/North America people have this awful tendency to take hook, line and sinker what suites them. If they are, lets call it "anti chicken noodle soup", its amazing how many folks go get their news from places that have an "anti chicken noodle soup" agenda, and then when they get headlines or stories that shit on chicken noodle soup, turn around and cite those sources to others as "facts" and reasons to say I told you so...and then more often then not end up being wrong and yet go make the same mistake again the next time theres a story about chicken noodle soup. 

 

I know what you're saying.  But as for making money...  The conservative news has been all over the "it's Biden's policies driving inflation" bandwagon.  Politics is as politics does.  Do you worry the 'transitory' argument is not being paid enough attention?

 

 

[Gregmal]

I think it kind of comes in waves. Inflation is awfully popular in terms of narrative right now. A year ago all we heard about was transitory. Now its here and accelerating and never going away. These pundits and talking heads generally happen to be laggards and I do think we're probably going to see this peak in the near future. The two big things IMO are shortage of good which will go away as people stop using covid as an excuse to shut down, and labor. More people will work if you pay them more. Companies can definitely afford to. And if not, be more receptive to immigration which I think the current administration can do. I would be less optimistic if an anti immigration republican was in there right now. 

[Xerxes]

Find it hilarious to see Americans opining on Russia’s geopolitical chessplay. 
 

Crimea needs to go back to the Khaghans of the Golden Horde. Sadly that entity no longer exists. 
 

aren’t these discussions ought to be in the Political section ? So that we don’t have to see/hear people’ skewed biases all the time. 

[ValueArb]

11 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Both Putin and Ukraine folks said the invasion talk was hysteria. Some “US sources” said it was happening any day now. While I don’t think either outcome is all that material to the markets, is there a point where we start throwing these US news peddlers and information sources into the same camp as the experts who give us polling numbers for the elections? Seems the biases really get running here and just like with some politicians, any time an anti china or anti Russian story can get a reaction, some jerk off throws it out there. Then when they get called out it’s an “honest mistake” LOL or they some how insist they were right anyway. It’s not even worth paying attention to most news sources at all anymore. LG at Cleveland cliffs said it wonderfully on the last call. We haven’t been an iron ore company for years but some jerk off substitute teacher on cnbc called us one yesterday and used it as his reason for selling the stock. 

 

I think to be fair the Ukrainian leader is concerned about causing a panic, but he's definitely preparing for war. He doesn't know what Putin will do any more than we do, or maybe not even Putin does.

 

I thought Putin was originally just posturing to push the Ukraine around and get some easy concessions, then declare a great victory without his forces even broaching the border. But I was shocked that his demands were so absurd I now wonder if he needs a war to bolster his political support at home.

 

I don't see how this ends well for anyone unless Russia stands down, and then it doesn't end well for Putin. But if he invades I think he's got Chechnya times ten on his hands and gets Russia bogged down in the Donbass for years with heavy international sanctions. That will eventually be terrible for him but it's going to be terrible for the Ukraine from the beginning, and not great for NATO. How will Germany react, and will they really agree to cut off that pipeline? Biden seems to be writing checks that he won't be able to cash and NATO's relationships may fray terribly.

 

And this has to be terrible for the Russian stock market. Why can't we all get along and trade each others markets in peace?

Edited February 16, 2022 by ValueArb

[ValueArb]

8 hours ago, Xerxes said:

Find it hilarious to see Americans opining on Russia’s geopolitical chessplay. 
 

Crimea needs to go back to the Khaghans of the Golden Horde. Sadly that entity no longer exists. 
 

aren’t these discussions ought to be in the Political section ? So that we don’t have to see/hear people’ skewed biases all the time. 

 

The golden horde were immune to sanctions. They did what they want.

[Castanza]

24 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Why can't we all get along and trade each others markets in peace?

Because humans are irrational. Always have been and always will be. 
 

= opportunity