Have We Hit The Top?

[Dalal.Holdings]

1 hour ago, Junior R said:

Trump picked Openai and not Xai...How long before Trump and Elon have issues? lol

 

Weird because that’s not how an Oligarchy is supposed to work. I guess Bernie lied…

[Dalal.Holdings]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

So funny, no wonder all the tech bros are running to kiss his ass now.

Amazing that Free Speech has become a foreign concept to many people, especially some of the “highly educated”

[Gregmal]

The best is yet to come and that’s Jerome Powells exit. It’s great knowing that elitist piece of shit who spends his time obsessing over guessing what other people think of irrelevant crap like “his credibility” and chasing stupid academic theories at the expensive of the average Americans food and shelter costs is gonna be packing his bags next year. 

[Sweet]

I take a different view, I actually think Powell has been a very very good Fed chairman.

[Gregmal]

What exactly is he doing right now then? Besides fabricating future inflation based on theory?

 

Cuz what he’s done was make an early “transitory” call, then cave after a year and call transitory supply chain driven covid inflation entrenched and “sticky”; fabricate some wage price spiral nonsense that never occurred, and then completely miss that while at 2-3% CPI, that the predominant source of the remaining inflation, housing, was his fault…..total idiot. 

Edited January 22, 2025 by Gregmal

[Blake Hampton]

53 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

The best is yet to come and that’s Jerome Powells exit. It’s great knowing that elitist piece of shit who spends his time obsessing over guessing what other people think of irrelevant crap like “his credibility” and chasing stupid academic theories at the expensive of the average Americans food and shelter costs is gonna be packing his bags next year. 

Powell saved our economy from what was almost the worst credit crisis in U.S. history. He’s a hero who doesn’t get the respect that he deserves.

[Sweet]

13 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

What exactly is he doing right now then? Besides fabricating future inflation based on theory?

 

Cuz what he’s done was make an early “transitory” call, then cave after a year and call transitory supply chain driven covid inflation entrenched and “sticky”; fabricate some wage price spiral nonsense that never occurred, and then completely miss that while at 2-3% CPI, that the predominant source of the remaining inflation, housing, was his fault…..total idiot. 

 

He had three major challenges and IMO he did a great job on two of them and a good job on one.

 

Great: Covid-19. SVB fallout.

 

Good: Inflation, though in hindsight should have raised earlier.

 

Edited January 22, 2025 by Sweet

[Gregmal]

11 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

Powell saved our economy from what was almost the worst credit crisis in U.S. history. He’s a hero who doesn’t get the respect that he deserves.

Which credit crisis was that? Only one I’m aware of was the one he caused by forcing banks to hold certain securities, then stress testing them and saying all good, and then recklessly jacking up rates more than 2x his own stress test scenarios in a matter of mere months solely because he was concerned about a few hedge fund guys attacking his credibility. 

[LC]

2 minutes ago, Sweet said:

Great: Covid-19. SVB fallout.

 

Good: Inflation, though in hindsight should have raised earlier.

 

 

I agree with this. I think he could've lowered earlier too, but  being like 3-6 months late to the party is not a knock against him. Frankly you could argue he took an appropriately conservative path.

 

Right from wikipedia, his job is to:

 

Congress established three key objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act: maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and moderating long-term interest rates

 

4.1% unemployment is pretty freaking low. 

Inflation reads have stabilized.

The 10-year is pretty moderate at 4.6% and he has been lowering. 

 

Not sure what more I can expect from the guy. 

 

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, Sweet said:

 

He had three major challenges and IMO he did a great job on two of them and a good job on one.

 

Great: Covid-19. SVB fallout.

 

Good: Inflation, though in hindsight should have raised earlier.

 

Covid great, sure. SVB he caused. And inflation he totally overreacted to and chased his tail. It was transitory all along he just got the timeline wrong. Same timeline a bunch of us here accurately predicted almost to the month. Now he’s just chasing things that don’t exist. 

[Blake Hampton]

I strongly believe that we’re living in a period of unprecedented disinformation and madness. There are so many people that have shunned reputable institutions, and in turn, have started to believe the most wild things they can find on the internet.

 

People don’t read books, they don’t read newspapers, they don’t consume anything that’s outside of mainstream TikTok, Facebook, TV trash.

 

We have markets that are at their most expensive point in history, a government whose economics are massively unsustainable, a public that couldn’t get any dumber, and a president who has somehow found a way.

 

Thanks for reading my daily rant.

[Blake Hampton]

9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Which credit crisis was that? Only one I’m aware of was the one he caused by forcing banks to hold certain securities, then stress testing them and saying all good, and then recklessly jacking up rates more than 2x his own stress test scenarios in a matter of mere months solely because he was concerned about a few hedge fund guys attacking his credibility. 

The one in 2020 where the treasury market almost broke.

 

How is it Powell’s fault that Congress could never get control of their budget, so now we’re in a situation where the Treasury market is fucked. Or how is it his fault that so many companies completely rely on debt markets for short-term liquidity. He is simply one man, against seemingly the entire world, who was in-effect trying to save it.

 

I believe that he did an outstanding job, and I think the future problem will be that nobody noticed.

[cubsfan]

14 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I strongly believe that we’re living in a period of unprecedented disinformation and madness. There are so many people that have shunned reputable institutions, and in turn, have started to believe the most wild things they can find on the internet.

 

People don’t read books, they don’t read newspapers, they don’t consume anything that’s outside of mainstream TikTok, Facebook, TV trash.

 

We have markets that are at their most expensive point in history, a government whose economics are massively unsustainable, a public that couldn’t get any dumber, and a president who has somehow found a way.

 

Thanks for reading my daily rant.

 

I would expect that attitude from a federal employee that just lost an election - sour grapes that the populist is in charge now.  You're definitely an elitist snob.

[Gregmal]

6 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

The one in 2020 where the treasury market almost broke.

 

How is it Powell’s fault that Congress could never get control of their budget, so now we’re in a situation where the Treasury market is fucked. Or how is it his fault that so many companies completely rely on debt markets for short-term liquidity. He is simply one man, against seemingly the entire world, who was in-effect trying to save it.

 

I believe that he did an outstanding job, and I think the future problem will be that nobody noticed.

So we can agree he handled Covid well. What he’s done since then is poor, but even if we disagree on that, what he’s doing now is inexcusable. Let go of your 15 minutes Fauci 2.0. There’s no inflation right now, and hasn’t been for a while. Strip out housing and derivatives of it and we might even be negative. There’s zero excuse for mortgages to still be 7-8% when the dominating issue for most, especially lower and middle income, is housing costs. Instead he’s jawboning about credibility and literally making up stuff about future inflation occurring. 

[Blake Hampton]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

So we can agree he handled Covid well. What he’s done since then is poor, but even if we disagree on that, what he’s doing now is inexcusable. Let go of your 15 minutes Fauci 2.0. There’s no inflation right now, and hasn’t been for a while. Strip out housing and derivatives of it and we might even be negative. There’s zero excuse for mortgages to still be 7-8% when the dominating issue for most, especially lower and middle income, is housing costs. Instead he’s jawboning about credibility and literally making up stuff about future inflation occurring. 

I don’t know everything there is to know about being a Fed Chair. But I would assume it’s very difficult to manage interest rate policy considering how it lags. When inflation is rising at 9% YOY, I don’t think they can just offer everyone hope that it’ll go back down. Price stability is literally one their mandates, they have to act.

[Blake Hampton]

12 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I would expect that attitude from a federal employee that just lost an election - sour grapes that the populist is in charge now.  You're definitely an elitist snob.

 

Maybe.

But you’re definitely not looking at this situation by the actual figures.

 

Edited January 22, 2025 by Blake Hampton

[thepupil]

2 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

So we can agree he handled Covid well. What he’s done since then is poor, but even if we disagree on that, what he’s doing now is inexcusable. Let go of your 15 minutes Fauci 2.0. There’s no inflation right now, and hasn’t been for a while. Strip out housing and derivatives of it and we might even be negative. There’s zero excuse for mortgages to still be 7-8% when the dominating issue for most, especially lower and middle income, is housing costs. Instead he’s jawboning about credibility and literally making up stuff about future inflation occurring. 

 

Powell can't (completely) control the 10 year or MBS spreads though. 

 

Do you think he should halt the run-off and purchase MBS in our current economy? 

 

Or should ST rates be lower in hopes that 10 yr rates go down and MBS spreads tighten? 

 

I am actually impressed with how well housing's held up in the context  of 7% rates. Feels like Powell doing what is long term healthy without much short term pain. Of course, I say this from a position of privilege w/ my circa 2021 2 7/8% mtg.

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

11 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

Maybe.

But you’re definitely not looking at this situation by the actual figures.

 

 

We know how much smarter you are than the working man & woman.

 

With you in charge, we'll go back to Biden's censorship regime and continue to rig elections to quash their vote.

Edited January 22, 2025 by cubsfan

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, thepupil said:

 

Powell can't (completely) control the 10 year or MBS spreads though. 

 

Do you think he should halt the run-off and purchase MBS in our current economy? 

 

Or should ST rates be lower in hopes that 10 yr rates go down and MBS spreads tighten? 

 

I am actually impressed with how well housing's held up in the context  of 7% rates. Feels like Powell doing what is long term healthy without much short term pain. Of course, I say this from a position of privilege w/ my circa 2021 2 7/8% mtg.

 

 

 

If he’s concerned with housing costs and “the common man” which was the whole argument for this little ruse then yea you could halt runoff or even resume. You have how many hundreds of economists getting paid billions at the Fed to come up with these solutions and all we re getting is…what we re getting lol? 
 

So sure you and I are fine. I’m probably buying another house this year and have over 7 figures of sub 4% 30 years as well…but for regular folks or especially the younger part of the workforce? How long do they need to go through this freeze out caused by some guy chasing academic theory and invisible boogeymen? Rents should’ve and would’ve collapsed at the rate they were building a few years ago. How many people are in starter homes that can’t sell them because even just replacing that home would cost 2x, let alone upsizing?
 

Of course building solves this, but all his handwaving(for credibility points) also allowed everyone to reposition, so again, how long is it fair to put a very large percentage of the workforces lives on hold…so some elitist can feel good about his “credibility”?

[thepupil]

i guess, I think younger people should just rent  if the math doesn't make sense at current rates...

 

I don't have an answer, but the alternative to what he's doing is not obvious to me. 

[Blake Hampton]

4 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

If he’s concerned with housing costs and “the common man” which was the whole argument for this little ruse then yea you could halt runoff or even resume. You have how many hundreds of economists getting paid billions at the Fed to come up with these solutions and all we re getting is…what we re getting lol? 
 

So sure you and I are fine. I’m probably buying another house this year and have over 7 figures of sub 4% 30 years as well…but for regular folks or especially the younger part of the workforce? How long do they need to go through this freeze out caused by some guy chasing academic theory and invisible boogeymen? Rents should’ve and would’ve collapsed at the rate they were building a few years ago. How many people are in starter homes that can’t sell them because even just replacing that home would cost 2x, let alone upsizing?
 

Of course building solves this, but all his handwaving(for credibility points) also allowed everyone to reposition, so again, how long is it fair to put a very large percentage of the workforces lives on hold…so some elitist can feel good about his “credibility”?

What do you think about a decrease in prices?

[cubsfan]

All we need to do is make it affordable to build.

[Grenville]

31 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I would expect that attitude from a federal employee that just lost an election - sour grapes that the populist is in charge now.  You're definitely an elitist snob.

 

hmm it seems everyone else has a moniker your giving them, what’s yours? 

[Spekulatius]

52 minutes ago, LC said:

 

I agree with this. I think he could've lowered earlier too, but  being like 3-6 months late to the party is not a knock against him. Frankly you could argue he took an appropriately conservative path.

 

Right from wikipedia, his job is to:

 

Congress established three key objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act: maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and moderating long-term interest rates

 

4.1% unemployment is pretty freaking low. 

Inflation reads have stabilized.

The 10-year is pretty moderate at 4.6% and he has been lowering. 

 

Not sure what more I can expect from the guy. 

 

Inflation wasn’t the Feds fault, it’s on the treasury. I agree he did a good job.

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

What do you think about a decrease in prices?

Decrease is which prices? Decrease is deflation, which is apparently bad. But for housing, theres an age old hack and that is to build. Increase affordability or incentives to build you create jobs and solve the issue. 

 

Powell just doesnt get this, and its been shocking how long now he's been going on about this inflation thing when all thats left is housing. The current Fed's obsession here is only made more peculiar by the fact that none seem to have really been willing to admit reality and that is that despite their mandate, certain elements of inflation have nothing to do with them, and theres nothing they can do about it. Look at insurance...insurance rates go up because housing costs are elevated and because of weather events. Hiking rates won't stop wildfires....so yea, definitely think its time for a change. If nothing else, Trump gets building. So this will be a low hanging fruit.