When Will You Take a Vaccine?

[SharperDingaan]

The nice thing with principles is that there is flexibility at the margin.

Agreed, evaluate each place on its relative risk, and let the pieces fall as they may.

 

However, the principle of a helping hand to get on the list - is not a bad thing. We have a charter of rights and freedoms for a reason; but until discrimination becomes a relic of the past, it's hard to argue against a compensating thumb pushing down on the scale.

 

Different strokes.

 

SD

 

 

 

[drzola]

Good point so, our we all wearing an N95 mask with a daily disinfectant change required what what millions in our bank accounts tho ha???

[Investor20]

 

 

If you’re young and healthy you are very unlikely to experience any adverse symptoms.

 

The vaccine is in limited supply.

 

The vaccine does not prevent you from carrying covid, nor does it prevent you from being contagious and spreading covid.

 

So far from what I’ve read, there is no additional benefit to getting the vaccine for individuals who have already contracted covid and gotten over it (unknown for me).

 

Longterm studies on vaccine: none

 

Longterm studies on covid: none

 

If weighing current risk vs current reward is obtuse.....well, I guess I’m obtuse.

 

Gheez Castanza, we are 9 month into this, your wife is a nurse and that’s how well you are informed?

 

You are correct, there are no LT studies on the vaccine and there is Little known a out the LT effects of COVID-19 either, except indications that there are some that could be a problem.

 

Most importantly, the vaccine will absolutely absolutely prevents you from carrying COVID-19 and infecting others - in fact that’s one of the main benefits of vaccination.

 

https://abc7news.com/covid-vaccine-masks-mask-wearing-pfizer/9139874

 

“Here's what the studies don't yet show. They haven't looked at whether the vaccine prevents someone from carrying COVID-19 and spreading it to others. It's possible that someone could get the vaccine but could still be an asymptomatic carrier. They may not show symptoms, but they have the virus in their nasal passageway so that if they're speaking, breathing, sneezing and so on, they can still transmit it to others.”

 

Obviously if you don’t have symptoms you’re far less likely to spread it since you aren’t sneezing and coughing all over. Yes, the vaccine helps reduce spread but it is t an end all solution. Hence the requirement to continue wearing masks and social distancing. As I said before....I will take it...but currently there are others who should get it first.

 

That’s why my original question was....are there any SIGNIFICANT benefits for a person under 30 to justify getting the vaccine early over those who are high risk or work on the front line.

 

I believe Oxford vaccine has given some numbers on asymptomatic transmission.

 

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/12/09/the-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-efficacy-data

"There were 24 asymptomatic patients in the low-dose-first group, for a vaccine efficacy of 58.9% (95% confidence interval from 1 to 82.9%, and that’s what I mean by “not tight”), and 45 patients in the two-standard-dose group (efficacy of 3.8%, unfortunately). So at least for this vaccine, the efficacy at preventing asymptomatic cases is notably lower than that seem for symptomatic ones, and that may well be true for all of them."

 

Seems like UK approved the standard dose:

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4968

"The UK’s medicines regulator has approved the Oxford and AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine, which will be administered as two standard doses—the second within 12 weeks of the first."

[Mark Jr.]

The COVID-19 “case” counts aren’t actually “cases”.

 

As Dr. Chris Martenson observes, a medical “case” actually means a patient presenting actual symptoms requiring medical attention.

 

Running a PCR test with cycle thresholds of 45 yields grossly inflated false positives (as David B Collum PhD says “with CT’s over 40, you can get a  positive result out of a dog’s ass”)

 

So, all of the shrieking around cases is really a media driven frenzy about asymptomatic instances of some non-negative amount of antibodies being present and most of the people involved wouldn’t even know it.

 

Further, there is no hard evidence that there is any appreciable asymptomatic transmission - most of the transmission is from close contact, indoor settings among symptomatic actual cases - hence the Long Term Care facility crisis and that ensuing shit-show. Go to any interactive dashboard that lets you categorize by transmission vector (like government of Ontario), take out the Long Term Care facilities, watch the case count lines drop to the floor.

 

Of the fatalities we know that the vast majority are with COVID rather than of it. The CDC reported 6% but I have remarked elsewhere that I do think a lot of the fatalities with co-morbidities should still be counted as COVID fatalities. That said, this isn’t Ebola, it isn’t 1918 Spanish Flu. It’s bad, but it’s not civilization ending pull the plug on everything bad. We lose more people every year to alcohol and alcohol related deaths (3 million annually) and we could (presumably) turn that off like a switch with a global ban on alcohol. Do we do it? Of course not. We deal with it, just like we could have dealt with this if hadn’t become politicized by the media.

 

Lockdowns were absolutely wrong headed and either conspiratorially malevolent “Great Reset” style circle jerks, or a cascading contagion of hysterical incompetence. Neither scenario garners credibility for “authorities” who take their masks off as soon as the cameras stop rolling, memory hole legitimate alternative medical responses (like Great Barrington Declaration style focused protection) and galavant off to soirées and luxury vacations while everybody else is on lockdown.

 

All this to say, making new, untested, unproven vaccines de facto mandatory on a population who has basically had the majority of their civil rights revoked by decree, is a hard sell (at least it is for me).

 

Whoever wants it should take it, whoever doesn’t shouldn’t have to be facing the prospect of living like a Mennonite from here on in. But that’s what it looks like will happen.

 

[Cigarbutt]

Hmm..

Difficult era for compromises.

On the one hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines should have obviously been given in early 2020 and "they" lacked courage (professional and personal), integrity or even intellect.

On the other hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines are, as of now, dangerous and guinea-pig products and "they" are hysterical incompetents (at best) or fanatical conspiration partisans with a Machiavellian plan.

What is confusing is that the same people seem to consistently reach similar contaminated conclusions about many topics and (needed assumption for coherence) "they" must manifest some kind of personal dissociation disorder. At times, it must be tough to be "they".

Rumor has it that a clerical staff person in medical records was able to jump queue and get the vaccine. Conclusion?: the whole process is a disgrace.

[drzola]

Survival is hard to define I suppose folks.

If I was paralyzed I have given my caregiver the proper authorization to end me legally fyi!

My choice not you folks ha!

Yet you will probably intervene if this come's too most likely.

[drzola]

Pick door three Monty said  lol?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/virus-vaccine-game-theory.html

[Gregmal]

Pick door three Monty said  lol?

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/20/health/virus-vaccine-game-theory.html

 

What if after picking door 3 they show you door 1 is empty? Will you change your guess?

[drzola]

Adapt, adapt, and then re- adapt to survive I suppose eh!

Big Ship(t)'s take forever to turn around but,some of us can turn on a dime my friend ha!

Stay safe and avoid a strangers breath near you maybe eh!

[Spekulatius]

Hmm..

Difficult era for compromises.

On the one hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines should have obviously been given in early 2020 and "they" lacked courage (professional and personal), integrity or even intellect.

On the other hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines are, as of now, dangerous and guinea-pig products and "they" are hysterical incompetents (at best) or fanatical conspiration partisans with a Machiavellian plan.

What is confusing is that the same people seem to consistently reach similar contaminated conclusions about many topics and (needed assumption for coherence) "they" must manifest some kind of personal dissociation disorder. At times, it must be tough to be "they".

Rumor has it that a clerical staff person in medical records was able to jump queue and get the vaccine. Conclusion?: the whole process is a disgrace.

 

My own take is that instead of focusing on who should get it first too much is concentrate on getting as many people vaccinated as possible quickly. The “who” is less important than the “how many”.

Frontline workers don’t like to get the vaccine - “Next one please”.

 

I think this is one thing that Israel gets right :

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/world/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-vaccines.html

[thepupil]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

 

based on this,  I'll get it after about 97% of Americans. My wife (who works in a hospital) will get it after 3% (potentially 1st dose in December, though there are more front-line types that are presumably ahead of her)

 

Wife gets Pfizer vaccine on Monday (DC hospital, government affiliation, risky patient facing but not “front line” as in ER / ICU / covid unit)

 

Sister got Moderna vaccine today (South Florida hospital, large hospital system, risky patient facing but not "front line" )

 

All the staff at my grandpa’s long term care facility have been vaccinated but I don’t think he has (he’s 94)

 

[alpha]

Hmm..

Difficult era for compromises.

On the one hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines should have obviously been given in early 2020 and "they" lacked courage (professional and personal), integrity or even intellect.

On the other hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines are, as of now, dangerous and guinea-pig products and "they" are hysterical incompetents (at best) or fanatical conspiration partisans with a Machiavellian plan.

What is confusing is that the same people seem to consistently reach similar contaminated conclusions about many topics and (needed assumption for coherence) "they" must manifest some kind of personal dissociation disorder. At times, it must be tough to be "they".

Rumor has it that a clerical staff person in medical records was able to jump queue and get the vaccine. Conclusion?: the whole process is a disgrace.

 

My own take is that instead of focusing on who should get it first too much is concentrate on getting ad many people vaccinated as possible quickly. The “who” is less important than the “how many”.

Frontline workers don’t like to get the vaccine - “Next one please”.

 

I think this is one thing that Israel gets right :

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/world/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-vaccines.html

 

Agreed, it's insane some places are only vaccinating during business hours when they have doses on hand to administer. In Canada some of the vaccination centers in the most populated province closed for the holidays even though they had vaccine available.

[Spekulatius]

Hmm..

Difficult era for compromises.

On the one hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines should have obviously been given in early 2020 and "they" lacked courage (professional and personal), integrity or even intellect.

On the other hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines are, as of now, dangerous and guinea-pig products and "they" are hysterical incompetents (at best) or fanatical conspiration partisans with a Machiavellian plan.

What is confusing is that the same people seem to consistently reach similar contaminated conclusions about many topics and (needed assumption for coherence) "they" must manifest some kind of personal dissociation disorder. At times, it must be tough to be "they".

Rumor has it that a clerical staff person in medical records was able to jump queue and get the vaccine. Conclusion?: the whole process is a disgrace.

 

My own take is that instead of focusing on who should get it first too much is concentrate on getting ad many people vaccinated as possible quickly. The “who” is less important than the “how many”.

Frontline workers don’t like to get the vaccine - “Next one please”.

 

I think this is one thing that Israel gets right :

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/world/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-vaccines.html

 

Agreed, it's insane some places are only vaccinating during business hours when they have doses on hand to administer. In Canada some of the vaccination centers in the most populated province closed for the holidays even though they had vaccine available.

 

Europe seems to have the same problems based on what read and hear from my brother and they are perhaps even worse.Germany has build up vaccination stops in addition to healthcare facilities to increase the capacity to give shots. Those should be open 16 h a day but somehow they are not.

 

Then there was enough of BioNvax shots ordered and the Astra Oxford vaccine is late and the EU decided not to give any emergency authorizations for COVID-19 vaccines on principle apparently.

 

It is quite infuriating to see how states and countries can botch this for one reason or another. I am guessing that this will all run more smoothly in 1-2 month but it sure is painful to watch.

 

Now I start to sound like Gregmal  :o.

[StubbleJumper]

Hmm..

Difficult era for compromises.

On the one hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines should have obviously been given in early 2020 and "they" lacked courage (professional and personal), integrity or even intellect.

On the other hand, you have people suggesting that vaccines are, as of now, dangerous and guinea-pig products and "they" are hysterical incompetents (at best) or fanatical conspiration partisans with a Machiavellian plan.

What is confusing is that the same people seem to consistently reach similar contaminated conclusions about many topics and (needed assumption for coherence) "they" must manifest some kind of personal dissociation disorder. At times, it must be tough to be "they".

Rumor has it that a clerical staff person in medical records was able to jump queue and get the vaccine. Conclusion?: the whole process is a disgrace.

 

My own take is that instead of focusing on who should get it first too much is concentrate on getting ad many people vaccinated as possible quickly. The “who” is less important than the “how many”.

Frontline workers don’t like to get the vaccine - “Next one please”.

 

I think this is one thing that Israel gets right :

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/01/world/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-vaccines.html

 

Agreed, it's insane some places are only vaccinating during business hours when they have doses on hand to administer. In Canada some of the vaccination centers in the most populated province closed for the holidays even though they had vaccine available.

 

Europe seems to have the same problems based on what read and hear from my brother and they are perhaps even worse.Germany has build up vaccination stops in addition to healthcare facilities to increase the capacity to give shots. Those should be open 16 h a day but somehow they are not.

 

Then there was enough of BioNvax shots ordered and the Astra Oxford vaccine is late and the EU decided not to give any emergency authorizations for COVID-19 vaccines on principle apparently.

 

It is quite infuriating to see how states and countries can botch this for one reason or another. I am guessing that this will all run more smoothly in 1-2 month but it sure is painful to watch.

 

Now I start to sound like Gregmal  :o.

 

 

You should be honoured to sound like Greg.  In Canada's largest province, these days your likelihood of catching covid during a given 7-day period is approximately 3-in-2000.  So, when the health administrators ceased vaccinations of the elderly over Christmas and 30,000 people didn't get vaccinated, it's likely that 45 of them will have caught covid.  They are elderly, so their Infection Fatality Rate is 10% or 15%, meaning that 5 or 6 of those 45 people who should have been vaccinated likely died because of that pause in vaccination over Christmas.  I wish everybody could take Christmas off, but Jesus Christ, the health system administrators know all of this fully well and are supposed to make decisions based on science and statistics and they completely shit the bed.  At this point, this is decision-making under (relative) certainty and they have make rookie mistakes.

 

On this issue, I stand with Greg.

 

 

SJ

[Read the Footnotes]

This poll is hilarious.

 

The poll was started at the beginning of December, and still available for people to vote. Currently 21% of respondents chose that they expect to have been inoculated in December 2020.

 

I guess that means that 21% of CoB&F respondents expect to be in the top <1% of Americans, or

the top <0.3% in Canada, or more likely there are lots of Israeli board members and they are part of the top 10% or so that were vaccinated in Israel in December (current number is around 14%).

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

 

Now I'm starting to doubt that everyone put in a Beardstown-Ladies-worthy 5,000% return in 2020.

 

Thanks for allowing me to have a little fun. I really do enjoy Corner of Berkshire and Lake Wobegon.  :)

 

Note: edited for typos.

[Cigarbutt]

^Of course scrutiny is warranted in all directions.

 

This distribution logistics challenge is an opportunity for healthy competition:

https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/map-covid-19-vaccination-tracker-across-u-s-n1252085

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&region=World

May the best win!

 

As far as Christmas day, 'Boxing Day' and New Year's day as well (to some extent), i don't have enough granular knowledge for a definitive opinion, especially a disparaging one, but it appears that many people with decision power underestimated the capacity of some workers to contribute to the effort on those specific days. However, it also seems that many hospitals and nursing homes really have a hard time with human resources (tired, sick etc). i know many people who work in hospitals and homes where community spread is still rampant and many have been recently told to cancel any planned holidays for the next few weeks. These people come home at the end of their day, turn on the TV and see sports bloggers turned data analysts at the airport waiting to fly to their all-included let's party adventure. There is a disconnect between what is happening in the real world (hospital beds etc) and what some people think is happening. Also, the Christmas day lull seems to be a national phenomenon which does not justify the delay but may contribute to understand, at least partially, some of the inputs that went into the decision making process.

[Investor20]

Chicago vaccination by age:

 

https://data.cityofchicago.org/Health-Human-Services/COVID-19-Vaccine-Doses-by-Age-Group-1st-Dose/7rmz-icie

 

You can have your mouse pointer on the date to see the numbers by age.  So few of 80+ and so many 18-29 & 30-39.

 

The age wise IFR given in below article:

 

The estimated age-specific IFR is

very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to

0.4% at age 55,

1.4% at age 65,

4.6% at age 75, and

15% at age 85.

 

Yet you see less than 10 vaccinated on many days for 80+.  On January 3rd, 1 dose is given for 80+, and 207 for 18-29, 198 for 30-39, 97 for 40-59. 

 

That is 502 for age group 18-50.  1 dose for 80+.  Though less than 0.4% IFR for below 55 compared to 15% for 85+.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1

[Spekulatius]

^Of course scrutiny is warranted in all directions.

 

This distribution logistics challenge is an opportunity for healthy competition:

https://covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtracker.html

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/map-covid-19-vaccination-tracker-across-u-s-n1252085

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&region=World

May the best win!

 

As far as Christmas day, 'Boxing Day' and New Year's day as well (to some extent), i don't have enough granular knowledge for a definitive opinion, especially a disparaging one, but it appears that many people with decision power underestimated the capacity of some workers to contribute to the effort on those specific days. However, it also seems that many hospitals and nursing homes really have a hard time with human resources (tired, sick etc). i know many people who work in hospitals and homes where community spread is still rampant and many have been recently told to cancel any planned holidays for the next few weeks. These people come home at the end of their day, turn on the TV and see sports bloggers turned data analysts at the airport waiting to fly to their all-included let's party adventure. There is a disconnect between what is happening in the real world (hospital beds etc) and what some people think is happening. Also, the Christmas day lull seems to be a national phenomenon which does not justify the delay but may contribute to understand, at least partially, some of the inputs that went into the decision making process.

 

On that end, my wife is technically on a 32h work week, but had 55-60h the last few weeks, I clouding Cmas and new yearThey sometimes try to incentivize nurses coming in extra days with considerable cash bonuses (hundred of $ in addition to overtime). Burnout is a real problem and if a family member is sick it’s Game over for a few weeks (which is part of the issue with staffing it appears).

 

Somewhat related, we got a message from our sons school yesterday that go from hybrid to fully online, because a student was tested positive and it turned out he attended a larger New Years party with many other students (against the current rules in MA) but they can’t identify them. ( I guess nobody wants admit breaking the rules) so without possibility for contact tracing, they shut it completely down for 2 weeks at least.

 

Hope they had fun and it was worth it .

[Cigarbutt]

...

Somewhat related, we got a message from our sons school yesterday that go from hybrid to fully online, because a student was tested positive and it turned out he attended a larger New Years party with many other students (against the current rules in MA) but they can’t identify them. ( I guess nobody wants admit breaking the rules) so without possibility for contact tracing, they shut it completely down for 2 weeks at least.

Hope they had fun and it was worth it .

Somewhat related, today i reviewed the back to school protocol with the youngest (13). She has to go through a one-week on-line transition before a still clouded outlook. While doing so, she mentioned: "I'm not sure i like school anymore... What!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. My children cumulate 58 years of schooling and this is a first. This persistent on-line stuff for younger kids is a poor set-up. There are many reasons for the length of this process but a major contributor was because "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge" (Isaac Asimov).

[Investor20]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-end-lockdowns-next-month-11608230214?mod=article_inline

How to End Lockdowns Next Month

Target vaccines to the most vulnerable, and don’t give them to people who have already been infected

 

"There is a sharp age gradient in the survival rate after infection. At least 99.95% of people under 70 survive infection; that figure is only 95% for 70 and older. "

 

Key to their argument of targeting vulnerable population, mainly older people.

 

"Some 50 million people in the U.S. are over 65. The number of vaccine doses expected to be available over the next two months will be enough to vaccinate every elderly person who wants to be inoculated, as well as health-care workers and other vulnerable people. With a 90%-plus efficacy rate in protecting against Covid-19 symptoms, we will achieve near-perfect focused protection."

 

"It’s unreasonable to require near-universal vaccination before a resumption of normal life. It will take until at least June 2021 to produce enough doses for the whole U.S. population and June 2022 for the world. This strategy would inflict months more of unnecessary harms. It would also divert doses away from vulnerable people in other countries, ultimately increasing the world-wide toll of Covid mortality."

 

[Gregmal]

Poo poo. The truth is that the holdup on vaccine rollout is that all the wealthy and connected folks are still on vacation and we're waiting for them to get back and get their shots. Once they do, then the normal folks can start getting it!

[thepupil]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

 

based on this,  I'll get it after about 97% of Americans. My wife (who works in a hospital) will get it after 3% (potentially 1st dose in December, though there are more front-line types that are presumably ahead of her)

 

Wife gets Pfizer vaccine on Monday (DC hospital, government affiliation, risky patient facing but not “front line” as in ER / ICU / covid unit)

 

Sister got Moderna vaccine today (South Florida hospital, large hospital system, risky patient facing but not "front line" )

 

All the staff at my grandpa’s long term care facility have been vaccinated but I don’t think he has (he’s 94)

 

Dad vaccinated today.

 

He is 68 and has an autoimmune disease that makes him high risk, but that’s not why he’s getting the vaccine. He’s getting it because my sister is an employee of the hospital and the hospital is enacting a program where employees can bring in a 65+ year old of their choosing.

 

The roll out is so weird.

 

 

[thepupil]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/03/opinion/covid-19-vaccine-timeline.html

 

based on this,  I'll get it after about 97% of Americans. My wife (who works in a hospital) will get it after 3% (potentially 1st dose in December, though there are more front-line types that are presumably ahead of her)

 

Wife gets Pfizer vaccine on Monday (DC hospital, government affiliation, risky patient facing but not “front line” as in ER / ICU / covid unit)

 

Sister got Moderna vaccine today (South Florida hospital, large hospital system, risky patient facing but not "front line" )

 

All the staff at my grandpa’s long term care facility have been vaccinated but I don’t think he has (he’s 94)

 

Dad vaccinated today.

 

He is 68 and has an autoimmune disease that makes him high risk, but that’s not why he’s getting the vaccine. He’s getting it because my sister is an employee of the hospital and the hospital is enacting a program where employees can bring in a 65+ year old of their choosing.

 

The roll out is so weird.

 

Mom vaccinated today because of sister's hospital employement (sister just called and asked if she could bring her in).

Grandpa vaccinated today because he's 94.

Wife 2nd dose today because she works in a hospital.

 

After today, I am the last remaining in my immediate family to have not been vaccinated at least once.

 

Just an anecdote about the vaccine rollout is. It seems pretty consistent across my friends/family that if you have work at a hospital or long term care facility or know someone who does, you're getting vaccinated or have a date (my cousin is a nurse practitioner in Tennessee at a hospital and just got hers too, my hygienist aunt in Tennessee has not gotten it yet).

[fareastwarriors]

My cousin, a radiologist, got her 1 dose like 2 weeks ago. She's in the Bay Area.

[Gregmal]

Found out my 98 year old grandmother will be getting the vaccine on Friday. She will be going with my aunt(her daughter) and uncle. Both of whom already got the vaccine. My aunt being a substitute teacher and my uncle being on the board of a hospital! Both when asked if they wanted it, retorted with "shouldn't other people get it first" and the response was that they just so happened to have them laying around, and someone needed to take them. What a remarkable rollout.