Leaving New York City

[Parsad]

On 8/26/2021 at 12:50 PM, Gregmal said:

Theres always the strip club index. There is virtually a 100% correlation with strong RE trends and the quality of the strip joints in the area. Vancouver has been world class for the last decade in both. Honorable mentions NY, Vegas, Miami. 

 

Sorry to disappoint, but Vancouver's strip club scene has essentially collapsed.  We used to have a dozen or so strip clubs...now we're down to about four.  Real estate prices on the other hand have increased faster than anywhere other than perhaps Sydney and San Francisco.  Cheers!

[fareastwarriors]

Bullish for the" paid and laid index?"

 

https://nypost.com/2021/09/10/investment-bank-moelis-says-junior-pay-is-likely-to-keep-rising-across-the-industry/

 

Investment bank Moelis says junior pay is likely to keep rising across the industry

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-15/new-york-city-has-once-again-defied-the-doomsayers-here-s-why?sref=ZtdQlmKR

[fareastwarriors]

https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-real-estate-prices-sales-worse-pre-pandemic-2021-9

 

It's a horrible time to be a New Yorker looking for a new pad, but a great time for NYC's economy.

 

NYC real estate "recovered" as residents returned over the summer — meaning the high prices are back.

 

Prices for rentals and sales are up, as are lease signings and buyer purchases.

[fareastwarriors]

New York City Apartment Rentals Are Now as Scarce as Before the Pandemic

 

With the city coming back to life, eager renters are snapping up apartments despite price increases. 
 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-30/home-price-surge-nyc-apartments-for-rent-shrink-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels?srnd=premium

[Gregmal]

https://nypost.com/2021/10/02/nyc-hypocrites-scared-to-return-to-office-reveling-in-nightlife/

 

Sooo spot on. There real NYC recovery hinges on jobs and folks returning to the office. Many of these scumbags are lying; doing what the government is doing...using covid as an excuse to do whatever they want. If I was an employer and folks said they were afraid of going back to the office I'd cut their salary. With the savings I'd hire an employee conduct manager responsible for overseeing "stay at home" folks. And if I found out these people were going to bars, clubs and concerts I'd fire their asses. 

[fareastwarriors]

10 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

https://nypost.com/2021/10/02/nyc-hypocrites-scared-to-return-to-office-reveling-in-nightlife/

 

Sooo spot on. There real NYC recovery hinges on jobs and folks returning to the office. Many of these scumbags are lying; doing what the government is doing...using covid as an excuse to do whatever they want. If I was an employer and folks said they were afraid of going back to the office I'd cut their salary. With the savings I'd hire an employee conduct manager responsible for overseeing "stay at home" folks. And if I found out these people were going to bars, clubs and concerts I'd fire their asses. 

 

Yea man it's some bs. I'm out in the SF area. There is high vax rate and high employment for white collar jobs. Downtown is empty but the restaurants are packed.

Edited October 3, 2021 by fareastwarriors

[LC]

Nobody wants to go to the office because everyone knows you can get the same job done in 35% of the time at home without all the office BS. 

 

Quote

our great office towers — the engines of our city’s economy

 

LOL. The economy is doing just fine - despite empty office towers. So how useful are they, really?

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, LC said:

Nobody wants to go to the office because everyone knows you can get the same job done in 35% of the time at home without all the office BS. 

 

 

LOL. The economy is doing just fine - despite empty office towers. So how useful are they, really?

This might be true but one of the things I think some people forget is that when you are a w2 a big part of your job is just simply doing what you're told. It doesnt have to make sense, you dont have to agree with it, you just have to do it. Thats the tradeoff when you decide to rely on someone else for a paycheck. 

[LC]

Well that's a different story. Yeah, when you're paid by The Man, you do what you're ordered to. 

 

But if you're going to argue that "the recovery" hinges on people going to an office...or that The Man's orders are the most effective...I'm going to disagree.

 

Hell, I've got people who were "ordered" to return to the office in NYC in september. So they show up, and now they have to wait in line for 2 hours EVERY DAY to get scanned in manually because security is checking vaccine IDs and such, and are too swamped to issue new IDs to people who joined in the last 1.5 years.

 

So now I've got my people wasting 3, 3.5 hours of their life (Waking up and getting ready to commute, commuting 30-45 min, waiting in line for 2 hours, getting setup at some hotel system workspace, etc.) just to start working. They're exhausted and frustrated at the end of this...and now they have to start "work".

 

And how do you think their work quality is? I do highly technical shit, I need these people's brains to be sharp and energized. I'd rather them roll out of bed in an old t-shirt and boxers, make a cup of coffee, eat a damn banana, log onto to their laptop that is sitting on their kitchen table, and get to work. 

 

Forcing people to do something unnecessary and inefficient isn't good for anyone. And if I were them I'd be looking elsewhere for employment (and the ones who don't need work VISAs are). So now I've got higher-than-normal turnover, again in highly-technical roles where it takes 6 months to really onboard people. 

 

So the whole thing is a hot mess and total BS. And senior management/employers know it, which is why nobody is getting fired. 

 

And it's why we've got open roles paying well into the six figs, why we can't fill them, why we are paying offsite consultants to stopgap, those consultants who are sitting and working from their kitchen/living room in places not-NYC. So pretty much the entire "get to the office" orders just mean employers are paying MORE to consultants to work-from-home

Edited October 3, 2021 by LC

[Gregmal]

Yea I definitely agree with a lot of that. But its also why Im not, and haven't been buying the NYC recovery story. A huge part of the Big Apple relies on offices filled with people and the ripple effects of that. The street carts. The Broadway shows and sporting events. All the way to the happy hours. Even the hotels. Housing is a different story. Not only is NYC unique, but frankly, everywhere in the damn country rents and home prices are soaring, why wouldnt NYC eventually do the same? But with regard to office, its screwed. The vax passport stuff is a burden/tax on businesses and another example of unfriendly business environment. So if you can outsource work to someone in a lower cost area, or simply pickup and move to Austin/Miami/Atlanta...thats what sensible businesses will(and are) doing. If you're a big, price insensitive powerhouse looking for a trophy office in the city(like a Google or Facebook) you can pull the trigger and sit on it vacant for 5 years. Most other companies....not so much. 

 

So while it doesnt make sense, the office has always been a big part of the city vibe because of the people. Whether its efficient....thats another story. I've been working from home with the side piece 800-1000 sq/ft 12 month office lease since 2013. Its never been more efficient to work from the office. But it is more fun, especially when theres people there. 

[fareastwarriors]

2 hours ago, LC said:

And how do you think their work quality is? I do highly technical shit, I need these people's brains to be sharp and energized. I'd rather them roll out of bed in an old t-shirt and boxers, make a cup of coffee, eat a damn banana, log onto to their laptop that is sitting on their kitchen table, and get to work. 

 

Forcing people to do something unnecessary and inefficient isn't good for anyone. And if I were them I'd be looking elsewhere for employment (and the ones who don't need work VISAs are). So now I've got higher-than-normal turnover, again in highly-technical roles where it takes 6 months to really onboard people. 

 

I agree with you on many points. Many jobs can be done at home and done well. However majority of office workers don't do highly technical shit and we are not that dedicated or passionate about what we do. We are grunts and work enough not to get fired or just a bit more. We are not changing the world but we are okay with that. 

 

Many offices are NOT OPEN even if you wanted to work there. So even if just 10-40% of workers Want to go work in office, they can't or need some special permission. I just think it's bs to say it's too dangerous to work in an office but okay for everyone to pack the restaurants/bars/clubs. 

 

Anyways, I don't even have a job so I need to chill.

 

Happy Sunday!

Edited October 3, 2021 by fareastwarriors

[LC]

Yeah I think it's BS to say it's "too dangerous" when at the time everyone is OK with wining and dining. It's obviously an excuse because they don't want to go to the office.

 

Most people I speak to say they want a flexible office schedule, go in 1-3x week. My guess is to either get away from their kids/partners (older employees) and or socialize with colleagues (younger employees).

 

And sure, some folks are admittedly more productive in an office.

 

My guess is most companies will downsize office space, leverage a shared hotel-ing structure, and allow flexibility. That seems like a good compromise to me. 

[Gregmal]

Ive long thought that the office as we know it, especially in terms of functionality, is very comparable to the shopping center and malls in terms of the type of evolution that will take place. Class A in either space won't miss a beat and will remain premier assets and even increase significantly in value. Below that, its very dangerous. Hybrid is definitely going to become standard. But I do believe people, generally speaking, like the experience of the office.

 

One underrated aspect of the office is that its basically where people without the ability to traditionally court a mate seem to find partners, fuck buddies,  and replacements for their existing partners. If I had a penny for every person I know who found their spouse or current bf/gf at work(even though its supposedly not allowed in most places) I'd have a few thousand extra dollars. The youngsters like to work in a nice playground, and yea the older ones like it to get away. But its also for most people a place where they can be a different person than theyre stuck being at home. How many crazy, egomaniac mid 40/50 somethings proudly run around playing bossman at work with their subordinates...only to punch out at 5 and go home to the wife and kids and be the subservient, somewhat disgruntled yes ma'am guy?

 

Its perplexing to a degree NYC government is making the shift back so challenging. I do think people want to go back. I've been through several major southern cities and the offices there arent full but still like 70/80% and you can just feel the energy. It isnt rocket science to see how badly a city(especially one with the density of NYC) needs the return. Think about it....putting several thousand, employed, well paid, and generally ambitious folks on your block for 6-8 hours a day(maybe 10-12 LOL), 5 days a week, is a massive economic stimulus to the surrounding businesses/area. It virtually impossible for it not to spark productivity all around. 

[Spekulatius]

All this seems to imply that offices need to be more WeWork like, since the social aspect and connecting in addition to representation is the only thing really left. Maybe open a bar after 5pm with free beer helps people attract back there. It would certainly work for me.

 

NYC needs to get people back into town otherwise it becomes a ghost town like Dallas Texas downtown back in the day (I haven’t been there since 2005 or thereabouts, so I have not idea what it’s like now).

Edited October 3, 2021 by Spekulatius

[Castanza]

 

Make sure to get your work from home agreements in writing  

 

@Spek, I was just in San Antonio for a wedding this past weekend and turned it into a mini vacation with the wife. Spent a few days in Austin and Dallas as well. Stopped in Waco to make the "white woman pilgrimage" to "Mecca" I mean Magnolia. All three cities worth visiting (Waco not so much), but completely different vibes. Dallas was my least favorite though. Hog hunts with former SEALs make for pretty good bachelor parties. 

 

[fareastwarriors]

 

NYC’s Surging Real Estate Market Boosts Coffers With Tax Revenue

 

City collected $468 million in first two months of fiscal year

 

Sales of condos, houses have been surging as economy rebounds

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-04/nyc-s-surging-real-estate-market-boosts-coffers-with-tax-revenue

[Gregmal]

Anyone hear rumor of this new NYC law requiring landlords to provide free internet? Hopefully just a rumor but doesn’t surprise me at all. 

[rkbabang]

On 10/3/2021 at 4:40 PM, Gregmal said:

How many crazy, egomaniac mid 40/50 somethings proudly run around playing bossman at work with their subordinates...only to punch out at 5 and go home to the wife and kids and be the subservient, somewhat disgruntled yes ma'am guy?

 

This is the exact reason that upper management want everyone back to the office so badly.  They don't want to be home with their wives.   They want to walk among the cubicles of their underlings who at least pretend to respect them when they are around.   It's basically a boomer power trip.   As an engineer, I find that I love working from home (I actually like my wife) and I spend just as much time bull shitting with other engineers on video chat over teams as I did in the breakroom at work.   I'm not on a power trip (and no man becomes a chip designer to look for women at work, LOL there is about 200 men for every woman in the field).  I have no problem going into the office for an in-person meeting now and again, but I'll never work for someone who requires me to commute to work in a cubicle farm under florescent lights all day ever again. The power trip boomers who want fake respect and time to cheat on their wives are going to lose this battle, at least in tech fields.

[rkbabang]

22 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Anyone hear rumor of this new NYC law requiring landlords to provide free internet? Hopefully just a rumor but doesn’t surprise me at all. 

 

 

Rents will rise to make up the difference and people will complain that their landlord provides the cheapest lowest speed internet that he can get away with providing by law and they have to buy internet on their own anyway.  A stupid law passed by stupid people which will cause more problems than it solves, just like the vast majority of laws and regulations.

[BG2008]

11 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

 

 

Rents will rise to make up the difference and people will complain that their landlord provides the cheapest lowest speed internet that he can get away with providing by law and they have to buy internet on their own anyway.  A stupid law passed by stupid people which will cause more problems than it solves, just like the vast majority of laws and regulations.

 

Passed?  Isn't this proposed? 

[rkbabang]

11 minutes ago, BG2008 said:

Passed?  Isn't this proposed? 

I don't know, gregmal said "a new law", I assumed it was passed or at least rumored to have been.  I don't own property in NY, so I'm not going to spend too much time looking into it.  Just replace "passed" by "proposed" in what I said.

[Gregmal]

This is kind of the major issue I have with investing in the blue states. Housing is being viewed as a quasi state run utility almost; even the privately owned stuff. This kind of stuff will only get worse because there is no way around the major affordability issue. Look at large swaths of Europe and even Germany...the effects are disastrous once government starts telling people what they must do with THEIR dirt, bricks, and lumber. The upside we see, in stuff like CLPR, CLI, etc.... it comes with a catch...the higher prices go in these places, the tighter the supply, the CRAZIER these stupid liberals will get. I've got a solid allocation to the above two names but ultimately this is why I favor the Sun Belt stuff. Not only do you have favorable migration trends but you also know that these are the same places that refused to even implement masks in school in the name of "freedom"...they will watch with pride as housing prices go bananas and their dirt becomes viewed as gold. Whereas in other states they view that as a "problem"...

[Gregmal]

5 minutes ago, rkbabang said:

I don't know, gregmal said "a new law", I assumed it was passed or at least rumored to have been.  I don't own property in NY, so I'm not going to spend too much time looking into it.  Just replace "passed" by "proposed" in what I said.

Dunno, was going to the driving range yesterday and heard something on one of the radio stations about landlords owning 10 or more units being required to provide internet. It was a shocking new level of "we'll tell you what to do"...even for NY standards. 

 

You tell me, this goes to a vote....what happens? Its a classic case of pitting the haves against the have nots. 

[rkbabang]

18 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Dunno, was going to the driving range yesterday and heard something on one of the radio stations about landlords owning 10 or more units being required to provide internet. It was a shocking new level of "we'll tell you what to do"...even for NY standards. 

 

You tell me, this goes to a vote....what happens? Its a classic case of pitting the haves against the have nots. 

 

Yep, they get to claim they "did something" to help "the poor" even though it will do more harm than good.

 

"It is hard to imagine a more stupid or more dangerous way of making decisions than by putting those decisions in the hands of people who pay no price for being wrong."

--Thomas Sowell