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Of the craziness that we have seen.

 

QQQ was going parabolic with volatility declining massively on chart vs months after bottom while VIX was well above 20 and climbing to 26 or so just before Wednesday reversal.

 

I wonder what Buffett is thinking these days. He has said that it was a mistake not to sell Coke and Gillette in the late 90's when they were trading at 50 times earnings. How much more could you expect of Apple with a $2.2 trillion valuation, trading at 40+ earnings while still a one product company?

 

Icahn was pounding the table and it was trading at 10 times earnings and 7 times adjusted for cash just a few years ago while concerns about Iphone growth and really being its only product of significance. Today no one cares about that.

 

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you know the end is nigh for tech stocks if SoftBank is going crazy long into it. We're about a year or two away from Masayoshi being found dismembered in a Saudi embassy after losing so much money.

 

Why do we think he lost so much money? Last SOTP for 9984 is $250B and he may have lost 0-$4B on this trade. If they issued a press release saying they made money or lost $2B Or $5B on this, why does it matter to SoftBank? I don’t think financial loss matters much but I do wonder if trading in this size could be considered market manipulation (buying a derivative so aggressively as to manipulate the underlying)

 

Masoyoshi is nutty but I never understand press coverage of him incinerating money. It’s rarely contextualized by the huge liquidity and low leverage of 9984 which has only improved with all the asset sales.

 

Also IIRC, the Saudi's investment is primarily in the form of preferred stock in the vision fund. Softbank has to burn through a lot of common NAV before Saudis are impaired.

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you know the end is nigh for tech stocks if SoftBank is going crazy long into it. We're about a year or two away from Masayoshi being found dismembered in a Saudi embassy after losing so much money.

 

Why do we think he lost so much money? Last SOTP for 9984 is $250B and he may have lost 0-$4B on this trade. If they issued a press release saying they made money or lost $2B Or $5B on this, why does it matter to SoftBank? I don’t think financial loss matters much but I do wonder if trading in this size could be considered market manipulation (buying a derivative so aggressively as to manipulate the underlying)

 

Masoyoshi is nutty but I never understand press coverage of him incinerating money. It’s rarely contextualized by the huge liquidity and low leverage of 9984 which has only improved with all the asset sales.

 

Also IIRC, the Saudi's investment is primarily in the form of preferred stock in the vision fund. Softbank has to burn through a lot of common NAV before Saudis are impaired.

 

Didn't say he's lost it all, yet. But given the exposure of the vision fund to the tech industry if we get a pullback they're going to be experiencing some pain. Got a sneak peak during the covid crash, ($18B) loss in the Vision Fund. This looks like he's doubling down on the bet.....maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't. But that's some powerful people he's going to piss off if it blows up in his face.

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Does it even matter? Please stay faithful to your personal process!

 

I see nothing wrong with discussing one of the world’s most important investors. That’s what this topic is about. The Vision fund is important for ones valuation of SoftBank, influences the whole tech ecosphere and SoftBank may or may not have been pushing up the tech market / whole market recently. It’s interesting and has impact on portfolios.

 

John, I have to say, each of the past few reactions to a couple my posts has left me confused.

 

Your posts  are cryptic and arguably hostile. Your English is much better than my Danish, but I can only conclude there’s something getting lost in translation.

 

You don’t have to read about a topic that’s of no interest to you.

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SoftBank is definitely worth talking about if it was the reason for the the recent nasdaq melt up.  the wisdom of the market is attributed to multiple players agreeing about a thesis.  but if there is one whale that is moving the market, then the underlying supposition that a thesis has been vetted by multiple parties no longer applies.  as if there is just one player saying the king is so fashionable when he is naked...and of course the rest agree.

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SoftBank is definitely worth talking about if it was the reason for the the recent nasdaq melt up.  the wisdom of the market is attributed to multiple players agreeing about a thesis.  but if there is one whale that is moving the market, then the underlying supposition that a thesis has been vetted by multiple parties no longer applies.  as if there is just one player saying the king is so fashionable when he is naked...and of course the rest agree.

 

It is worthwhile to watch this and Masa is unlikely the only one gunning big tech stocks with options. The Sherwood Forest crowd was supposedly a factor too, but probably too small to matter. This is likely a Momo trade with several large players involved. Until Mr Market removes the plug from the bathtub and some players get into trouble we will never know.

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