Gregmal Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand.
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money.
EricSchleien Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. How does Facebook have the overhang of BK?
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. How does Facebook have the overhang of BK? Whoops my bad - typed that fast - I meant that facebook has an overhang from politics, congress desire to split it up etc. Some of these do not have an overhang of bk but have an overhang of sorts which should alleviate the overhang with time.
Spekulatius Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 Actually, buying BP during the oils spill wasn’t all that profitable. Whatwad profitable we buying the collateral damage - stocks like HAL. I generally don‘t buy the directly affected Company, But the collateral damage. These stocks may be down less, but typically their exposure to the calamity in question is way less, making them a better risk reward. In terms of the current situation, Imam not sure that airlines hotel are a good buy currently. It seems that most airlines are probably zeros in a prolonged scenario and hotels may at least have raise capital to survive.
Guest Schwab711 Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther.
Foreign Tuffett Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther. Ha ha ha. Life isn't worth living without distressed, slim fit jeans
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 Actually, buying BP during the oils spill wasn’t all that profitable. Whatwad profitable we buying the collateral damage - stocks like HAL. I generally don‘t buy the directly affected Company, But the collateral damage. These stocks may be down less, but typically their exposure to the calamity in question is way less, making them a better risk reward. In terms of the current situation, Imam not sure that airlines hotel are a good buy currently. It seems that most airlines are probably zeros in a prolonged scenario and hotels may at least have raise capital to survive. You're right but I think hotels are different, and especially in Park's is different. They are the best house in the worst neighborhood. Same with AerCap. Also, enough liquidity to weather for 6-8 months. Any longer however I will feel this downturn may be greater than the recession, as viruses has no feelings on stimulus and whatever else. So trying to get into "safe" may protect your downside a bit intrinsically, but extrinsically (I mean share price) it may not.
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther. Ha ha ha. Life isn't worth living without distressed, slim fit jeans I agree - but if that's the case the price of everything will go down in that case. It'll be armageddon. Also hard to imagine with $500M-750M in cash and no debt they will got bankrupt, especially with the rent deferrals.
arcube Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. StoneCo - Care to share why it belongs to your list?
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. StoneCo - Care to share why it belongs to your list? Trades at a ridiculous discount to peers valuation although increasing revs by near 100% year over year. It seems people don't like biz in brazil, and I don't blame them with the their track record but it seems legit when speaking to friends who live in brazil. Edit: In fact - the desire to save cost and have remote services will allow stoneco to weather this and maybe thrive.
Viking Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther. Schwab, i think the US will do better than Europe in the coming months/years. What do you see replacing the US$ as reserve currency?
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther. Schwab, i think the US will do better than Europe in the coming months/years. What do you see replacing the US$ as reserve currency? I think the risk is if the US does not control COVID-19 and other nations have controlled COVID-19 - then there's a real risk that the US will lose reserve status. Edit: We can't rule this out due to the unpredictable nature of the virus - there's still a possibility of mutation, second wave, etc.
Gregmal Posted April 2, 2020 Author Posted April 2, 2020 I'm hardly a forex expert, but to some degree have always assumed our "reserve currency" status is not so much related to our genius politicians/system but to the fact that we have the best businesses in the world calling US home. That again seems to be apparent when we look to COVID leadership. It was companies who took the lead, not politicians.
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 I'm hardly a forex expert, but to some degree have always assumed our "reserve currency" status is not so much related to our genius politicians/system but to the fact that we have the best businesses in the world calling US home. That again seems to be apparent when we look to COVID leadership. It was companies who took the lead, not politicians. Hence my optimism, because it is hard to take down the behemoths of the US. However, if the US does not control it, it is in the realm of possibilities where the virus takes down quality businesses.
LC Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 Not my forte but take a look at MGM - insiders are buying.
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 Not my forte but take a look at MGM - insiders are buying. Thank you! I'll take a look but would want it to go down some more. 3 P/E Ratio with China exposure is still a bit high for me, even at this stage.
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 Hei Tdg Spg Bpy Are you sure about BPY? BAM is known to take things private at the detiriment of minority shareholders
randomep Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 Actually, buying BP during the oils spill wasn’t all that profitable. Whatwad profitable we buying the collateral damage - stocks like HAL. Ya that's what I remember, BP didn't really recover from the bottom even after the cleanup was over.
Guest Schwab711 Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther. Schwab, i think the US will do better than Europe in the coming months/years. What do you see replacing the US$ as reserve currency? I don't see USD getting replaced. Was a tongue-in-cheek way to point out that there are at least a few possibilities between Aercap equity being worth $0 and whatever 'we won't need money' means. UE is going to increase 10% in one month. Many, many people are going from record-low UE and wage increases for the first time in many years to being personally illiquid without massive government support in a matter of weeks. I'm pretty bearish on cruise ships and airline leasing companies at the moment. Don't let me derail the thread 8)
valueinvestor Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 The context of the title is simple; a wee bit back I recall talking with a manager who recounted how he bet big on BP during the oil spill. I've heard countless times from folks who bought financials or real estate during the GFC. The is obviously a period cut from the same type of fundamental disruption fabric. So, for those willing to get their hands dirty, what names in the hospitality, restaurant, airline, cruise, entertainment biz are you looking at as the name you boast about buying during the coronavirus panic 5-10 years from now? If not a specific name, what investment are you making or looking to make? These are the scenarios where fortunes are made, if they arent lost first. For me, I've been long a shareholder of the MSG entities. Ive regularly stated I planned to sell the entertainment company upon spin off. However, it is becoming apparent as the April 17 date approaches, that the spin off will get an abhorrent valuation despite having no debt and over $1B in cash. I am very much intending to hold my existing shares, and flirting with the idea of adding depending upon where things stand. AERCAP Parks Hotels and Resorts Basket of Cruises StoneCo American Eagle Urban Outfitters Shopify Tesla Facebook Heico Transdigm These are the stocks in general I found has an overhang of bankruptcy but can't see them being BK unless in a real draconian situation - and if that's the case we won't need money. American Eagle/Urban outfitters/Aercap go bankrupt => US dollar loses reserve status/we are back to cavemen is why I think assets can fall a lot farther. Schwab, i think the US will do better than Europe in the coming months/years. What do you see replacing the US$ as reserve currency? I don't see USD getting replaced. Was a tongue-in-cheek way to point out that there are at least a few possibilities between Aercap equity being worth $0 and whatever 'we won't need money' means. UE is going to increase 10% in one month. Many, many people are going from record-low UE and wage increases for the first time in many years to being personally illiquid without massive government support in a matter of weeks. I'm pretty bearish on cruise ships and airline leasing companies at the moment. Don't let me derail the thread 8) Ahh makes sense. I was saying you don't need money, in a tongue-in-cheek way if we do revert back to caveman status, but you have a right to be bearish. I just think it's a great time to purchase at maximum pessimism - but probably wouldn't bet the farm.
meiroy Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 I'm hardly a forex expert, but to some degree have always assumed our "reserve currency" status is not so much related to our genius politicians/system but to the fact that we have the best businesses in the world calling US home. That again seems to be apparent when we look to COVID leadership. It was companies who took the lead, not politicians. It's mostly due to historic reasons (WWI -> WWII -> Bretton Woods) and the fact that at least so far the USA is willing to cover the costs of having a reserve currency (the benefits are mostly political). There is no alternative in sight. There's no other country that would accept this burden. Same with foreign countries buying USA debt.
bizaro86 Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 I have Aercap and Park for the same "best house in worst neighborhood" reason. Park especially has assets that can never be re-created. It's like the old Buffet comment on how much money it would take to outcompete Coke - no amount of money builds a true comparable to Hilton Hawaiian Village. I have also bought PPL. Credit concerns as their customers are large Canadian oil cos, but their pipelines will be needed even if all the producers take a trip through BK. I'm less enthusiastic about the chemical plant, but at this price not everything needs to go right. For the USD - the benefit of being the reserve currency is a huge and persistent investment surplus that finances a huge and persistent trade deficit. So Americans as a whole can consume more than they produce because their biggest export is reserve currency status fiat money.
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