Defense contractors

[lnofeisone]

52 minutes ago, realassetsvalue said:

Snarkiness aside, following this closely due to the potential impact on real estate, especially in the DC area.

 

Obviously very early but have there been major layoff announcements made yet by the defense or other large government contractors?

 

This is what ChatGPT has come up with so far - 3/4 examples they cited did work for USAID, which makes sense. I know lots of folk at these sorts of firms are on furlough already if projects they're working on have had funding paused.

 

JAVA MAN is based out of DFW and all people are getting laid off are in TX. ABT's USAID is mostly DC but NOAA (Seattle) and CDC (Atlanta) are not. DAI furloughed 400 or so but they are calling some back as they reposition them.

 

Most majors are preparing. Few contracts got hit already and some additional contracts are being offered to the DOGE as sacrificial lambs. There is a scramble to reposition people. Especially technical people. Incidentally, DOGE is killing off small business contractors that offered an insanely competitive price and were major PITAs for the big firms. 

[Spekulatius]

Employing veterans is a DEI program too isn’t it?

$CACI and $HII are having a good day

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Interesting articles regarding subs. I think the US muscled out the French for this sub contract (cost overruns with the French program didn’t help) but will Austrian ever be the subs and if so when. Could be 2040 with some timelines I have seen because the US shipbuilding industry isn’t in a great shape to produce ships or subs

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/trump-pick-for-pentagon-says-selling-submarines-to-australia-would-be-crazy-if-taiwan-tensions-flare

 

I think it’s possible that Australia changes their mind again.

[rogermunibond]

Portugal rules out purchases of F-35 to buy European fighter

 

https://www.aereo.jor.br/2025/03/13/portugal-descarta-compra-de-cacas-f-35-e-avalia-alternativas-europeias/

[Xerxes]

Canada needs to cancel as well. 

you cannot trust the hardware anymore. whether there is a “kill switch” or not for F-35, cannot trust these guys.  

[rogermunibond]

Why is AI/LLM/chip mastery considered a national security and/or military dominance issue?

 

What are the ways in which LLMs or AGI could tip the scales in military dominance?

 

Thanks.

[Spekulatius]

10 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

Why is AI/LLM/chip mastery considered a national security and/or military dominance issue?

 

What are the ways in which LLMs or AGI could tip the scales in military dominance?

 

Thanks.

Besides cyber warfare, I struggle to see many.

 

The auto pilots for planes , ships etc are a different form of AI, I think.

Edited March 18, 2025 by Spekulatius

[anshulp]

 F47

[Xerxes]

Aero-India aerospace show 2025 

last month

 

F-35 vs. Su-57 vying for market share

 

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

Any nation that chooses to buy Russian military hardware after the live demonstration in Ukraine deserves what they get

[Xerxes]

Are we sure we are not mixing up military doctrine with military equipment, when it comes to the Ukraine War.

 

I think India looks to keep its non-aligned position and not to be "locked-in" in any specific advance platform and be at the mercy of the supplier.

My guess, neither F-35 nor Su-57 will do it for them. Though, they trust Moscow for more than Washington for historical reasons.

 

If I were them I would keep pushing for those French Rafale fighters.

They have already have inked a deal, it can expand. I think the need is over +100 aircrafts.

 

India-France strategic ties to get major boost with Rafale & Scorpene deals | India News - The Times of India

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 3/23/2025 at 8:30 PM, Xerxes said:

Are we sure we are not mixing up military doctrine with military equipment, when it comes to the Ukraine War.

 

I think India looks to keep its non-aligned position and not to be "locked-in" in any specific advance platform and be at the mercy of the supplier.

My guess, neither F-35 nor Su-57 will do it for them. Though, they trust Moscow for more than Washington for historical reasons.

 

If I were them I would keep pushing for those French Rafale fighters.

They have already have inked a deal, it can expand. I think the need is over +100 aircrafts.

 

India-France strategic ties to get major boost with Rafale & Scorpene deals | India News - The Times of India

 

Russia could not establish air superiority after over 3 years in a country without a real functional air force. They've lost ships to a country without a functioning Navy. The SU-57 seems to be a 5th gen fighter in name only.

 

Anyone who buys their military hardware will get what they deserve.

 

Edited March 27, 2025 by Dalal.Holdings

[Xerxes]

25 minutes ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

 

Russia could not establish air superiority after over 3 years in a country without a real functional air force. They've lost ships to a country without a functioning Navy. The SU-57 seems to be a 5th gen fighter in name only.

 

Anyone who buys their military hardware will get what they deserve.

 

I am not expert on the specifics of the hardware, but I have no problem believing that American hardware is probably superior to Russians.

 

That said, that was not my point. Said differently, if you take the 2022-23 situation and for the Russian side, you swap American training and military doctrine instead of rigid top down Soviet doctrine while using the same Russian hardware, you would have seen Gerasimov achieving air superiority. 
 

Thus, India can buy all the F-35s it wants, with all its logistics, but without spousing the Western military doctrine, the only winners will be Lockheed shareholders. 

[rogermunibond]

@Xerxes open source military hardware

[Ulti]

Israel Aims to Be the World’s Arms Dealer

As Europe boosts defense spending, Israeli producers see an opportunity for arms sales—and a chance to become more self-sufficient.

Galit AltsteinMarch 27, 2025 at 1:01 AM EDT

Illustration: Deena So Oteh for Bloomberg Businessweek

After Israel launched its war in Gaza, arms suppliers such as the US, the UK and Italy restricted military exports to the country in hopes of pushing the government of Benjamin Netanyahu toward a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. The result? Israel’s homegrown defense industry went into overdrive, and today it’s producing more than ever. Now manufacturers aim to increase exports—including embargoed weaponry—and some potential buyers are the same countries that had imposed restrictions. 

Israel’s dozens of arms producers have been ramping up production. Elbit Systems Ltd., traded in Tel Aviv and New York, is setting up manufacturing lines for 1-ton aerial bombs known as MK84s as well as smaller versions of the same series, according to Israeli officials who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive matters. And since August, Elbit and the Defense Ministry have signed contracts valued at some 2.5 billion shekels ($700 million) to boost production of weapons and various chemical compounds needed for munitions. “Israel has to be more independent in armaments production,” says Bezhalel Machlis, Elbit’s chief executive officer.
 

[Spekulatius]

4 hours ago, Xerxes said:

I am not expert on the specifics of the hardware, but I have no problem believing that American hardware is probably superior to Russians.

 

That said, that was not my point. Said differently, if you take the 2022-23 situation and for the Russian side, you swap American training and military doctrine instead of rigid top down Soviet doctrine while using the same Russian hardware, you would have seen Gerasimov achieving air superiority. 
 

Thus, India can buy all the F-35s it wants, with all its logistics, but without spousing the Western military doctrine, the only winners will be Lockheed shareholders. 

The Su-57 is not stealthy a d has a radar cross section than is probably 100-1000x larger than the F-35. It is Gen 5 in name only.

 

The Russians possibly could ah e achieve air superiority in Ukraine in 2022 when Ukraine hat little air defense syte with more reach, but they were not willing to accept the high losses that they woj

d have incurred , so they held their Air Force back.

 

At least that’s my understanding of the situation back then.

[Xerxes]

16 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

The Su-57 is not stealthy a d has a radar cross section than is probably 100-1000x larger than the F-35. It is Gen 5 in name only.

 

The Russians possibly could ah e achieve air superiority in Ukraine in 2022 when Ukraine hat little air defense syte with more reach, but they were not willing to accept the high losses that they woj

d have incurred , so they held their Air Force back.

 

At least that’s my understanding of the situation back then.

 

 

I have no problem believing that F-35 is a superior beast on a one on one basis. But that is not the only variable when it comes for decades long commitment for the Indian Air Force. Its superiority can easily become a liability for IAF. In fact it is not even close I would think.

 

On Ukraine:

 

There are few books that are already out on the air war in Ukraine; i have not purchase them yet. But I think Putin treated his Air Force, the same way Kaiser treated his High Seas Fleet. Holding it and refusing to risk it in a massive engagement (Jutland was an exception). There is also a certain arrogance in the Russian High Command, not willing to destroy what they thought would be their just in a few weeks. Once the table turned it was way too late. 

 

The Russian achieved strategic surprise by hauling their army through Belorussia and coming from the North, but totally failed to shock and awe, simply because they thought they would just walk in, and Kiev would roll over.

 

[anshulp]

Worth a listen imo! Frank Kendall was interviewed. Confirmed that Boeing was not awarded for any industrial base reasons etc.  

 

[Hektor]

Not a defense contractor, nevertheless.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/deloitte-laying-off-u-s-consultants-after-government-crackdown-on-costs-2e6fa6a0

 

Deloitte to Lay Off U.S. Consultants After Government Cost Crackdown

Federal government continues to challenge firms’ contracts, forcing them to justify prices, sources say

 

Deloitte is cutting U.S. workers in its consulting business after the federal government demanded it find ways to shrink the cost of government projects it is working on. The company is among the largest U.S. consulting firms to the federal government. 

 

The Big Four accounting firm didn’t specify how many employees would be targeted. “Modest personnel actions” would be taken in the coming weeks based on government clients’ evolving needs, the company said.

 

Deloitte also said voluntary employee turnover had slowed down. Since more consultants had stayed in their jobs in recent months, that contributed to the need to reduce its workforce, according to a U.S. spokesman. Overall demand for Deloitte’s advisory services remains strong, he added. 

[lnofeisone]

2 hours ago, Hektor said:

Not a defense contractor, nevertheless.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/deloitte-laying-off-u-s-consultants-after-government-crackdown-on-costs-2e6fa6a0

 

Deloitte to Lay Off U.S. Consultants After Government Cost Crackdown

Federal government continues to challenge firms’ contracts, forcing them to justify prices, sources say

 

Deloitte is cutting U.S. workers in its consulting business after the federal government demanded it find ways to shrink the cost of government projects it is working on. The company is among the largest U.S. consulting firms to the federal government. 

 

The Big Four accounting firm didn’t specify how many employees would be targeted. “Modest personnel actions” would be taken in the coming weeks based on government clients’ evolving needs, the company said.

 

Deloitte also said voluntary employee turnover had slowed down. Since more consultants had stayed in their jobs in recent months, that contributed to the need to reduce its workforce, according to a U.S. spokesman. Overall demand for Deloitte’s advisory services remains strong, he added. 

No surprises here. Deloitte is the IRS's largest contractor, and the IRS is getting rocked. This is in addition to the rest of the federal portfolio (Deloitte refers to it as GPS), where civilian and health services account for roughly 40% of revenue. Deloitte has been aggressively expanding into states. 

 

Defense portfolios are generally stabilizing for the time being. CACI and SAIC are currently safe. More so with CACI as they are trying to play ball with Palantir. 

[Spekulatius]

25 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:

No surprises here. Deloitte is the IRS's largest contractor, and the IRS is getting rocked. This is in addition to the rest of the federal portfolio (Deloitte refers to it as GPS), where civilian and health services account for roughly 40% of revenue. Deloitte has been aggressively expanding into states. 

 

Defense portfolios are generally stabilizing for the time being. CACI and SAIC are currently safe. More so with CACI as they are trying to play ball with Palantir. 

It’s seems to me that Doge is leaving defense alone.

[dealraker]

8 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

It’s seems to me that Doge is leaving defense alone.

It seems you are correct on this Spek.  The issue may be my other prediction however, that the budget deficit is going up in a wild way which may add to the limits of defense spending.

 

 

[sleepydragon]

Musk is having a word fight about tariff on twitter, and the tariff war could trigger a real war in taiwan. Is that why LMT is up today?

Edited April 8, 2025 by sleepydragon

[lnofeisone]

29 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:

Musk is having a word fight about tariff on twitter, and the tariff war could trigger a real war in taiwan. Is that why LMT is up today?

that and defense budget is about to pass as is. 

[Hektor]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pentagon-just-killed-5-1-015956256.html

 

The Pentagon says it's ending $5.1 billion worth of IT and consulting contracts with firms including Accenture and Deloitte

 

The US's defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, on Thursday ordered the termination of IT and consulting contracts with companies including Accenture and Deloitte, calling it "wasteful spending."

 

In a Department of Defense memo, Hegseth said he would cut a Defense Health Agency contract "for consulting services from Accenture, Deloitte, Booz Allen, and other firms that can be performed by our civilian workforce."

 

Also on the chopping block is the Air Force's contract with Accenture to "re-sell third-party Enterprise Cloud IT Services," which Hegseth said the government could "already fulfill directly with existing procurement resources."

 

In the memo, Hegseth also said he was terminating 11 other contracts for consulting services supporting what he called "non-essential" activities, including diversity, equity and inclusion, climate matters, and the Pentagon's COVID-19 response.

 

He said the savings would be reallocated to serve "critical priorities to Revive the Warrior Ethos, Rebuild the Military, and Reestablish Deterrence."