Coronavirus

[StubbleJumper]

In case you want some real stories:

My relative who was cured 3 weeks ago now has the symptoms again and CT shows lung infections. My mom’s neighbor was recently cured and discharged from hospital and died the next night.

 

sorry to hear that. Do you know their ages?

Both in the 50s.

 

@Muscleman , very very sorry to hear. Reoccurring infections have been reported in China (my wife told me about it) and so far seem inexplicable and scary. Probably different strains of the Virus ( solely my conjecture).

Thank you for contributing, Muscleman and sorry for your continued loss due to this terrible illness.

 

Stories of reinfection, and stories of lung damage are very concerning and are probably not factored in to most people's mental models.

 

 

 

+1  What the heck is the r-naught if people have recurring infection?

[Read the Footnotes]

For me all it took was a piece of paper, a calculator and less than three minutes to scare the crap out of me, but of course I know a bit about healthcare and I've done enough bootstrap modeling in the past that I didn't think building a statistical model was worth the time. I could see it in my head.

 

Could you share the logic please to those who are less informed?  :)

 

If you've studied operations management or even just managed a team or operation, you will know that you want to focus on the bottleneck. As soon as you eliminate that bottleneck another will appear, so then you need to deal with that.

 

So a fast way to identify that we could have a problem is simply identify the bottlenecks and then see how easy it is to exceed capacity. Obviously the easiest healthcare capacity numbers to come up with are aggregate numbers for the whole country and things will vary a lot by region, but capacity is so easily exceeded that doesn't really matter (even those making television appearances for the Trump administration have started saying that in the past 24 hours).

 

Here's a logic problem that's even faster. Another way of looking at it is that the USA's population is growing and healthcare capacity has been declining, in large part due to legislation and administrative action or inaction. The USA has less capacity per capita than China or Italy. China is historically ground zero for this type thing and has more experience with it than the USA. Why would we handle it better than them and what are the odds of that happening?

 

P.S. The WHO finally declared it a pandemic.

[Kaegi2011]

 

Did I misinterpret or misrepresent anything here?

 

I think you have an excellent understanding of this at this point, and apparently able to put it down on paper better then me.

 

Thanks.  Just trying to make sure I fully understand the various perspectives.  Again, apologies again for the comment before re: the profession you've chosen.  It meant no disrepect.

 

I do want to ask you - if you were to take a step back and think about your position, where could you be wrong?

 

I could be wrong by how much of a hit this will be to the ICU/need for respirator, ie breakdown of health system. I can only think back to working during the H1N1 outbreak and the 17-18 flu season and that volume load which was ~15 million cases if I recall correctly. The system was stretched, but did not collapse, My opinion is the virus has been here for 6 weeks/months and cases are vastly under reported. So in my mind we are currently in an environment of where many think we will be from documented patient 1 say 4-6 weeks from now, already!  Its in this mind frame I have a hard time rectifying a wickedly high death rate and medical system collapse if we are operating in this environment currently.

 

I certainly could be wrong on this, I hope I'm right of course. We will see. The fact of the matter is if the cases are severely under estimated and we are handling it now maybe we are further along on the curve then we think, and handling it fine.

 

Thanks, that's a helpful perspective to understand the disconnect given your view.  So a few follow up questions / thoughts:

 

1) If it's been here for that long, is it possible that people are dying in smaller numbers and we haven't been seeing them due to the deaths being dispersed and thus not counted as COVID19 related deaths?  Is there a national database to check real time death rate (regardless of cause of death)?

2) Is it possible that the density of our cities decrease R0 vs. other countries (along with an advanced heads up from seeing what happened in Wuhan)?

3) Is CFR lower than what we have been told?  Or maybe virus has mutated?

 

I don't know what else could cause a disconnect between your hypothesis that it's been here for a while, and the lack of impact we are seeing.  Either you are wrong about the date of arrival and the number of people in the population, or the R0/CFR rates are wrong or changing significantly, or we're not capturing the impact somehow.  What else could it be?

[Kaegi2011]

For me all it took was a piece of paper, a calculator and less than three minutes to scare the crap out of me, but of course I know a bit about healthcare and I've done enough bootstrap modeling in the past that I didn't think building a statistical model was worth the time. I could see it in my head.

 

Could you share the logic please to those who are less informed?  :)

 

If you've studied operations management or even just managed a team or operation, you will know that you want to focus on the bottleneck. As soon as you eliminate that bottleneck another will appear, so then you need to deal with that.

 

So a fast way to identify that we could have a problem is simply identify the bottlenecks and then see how easy it is to exceed capacity. Obviously the easiest healthcare capacity numbers to come up with are aggregate numbers for the whole country and things will vary a lot by region, but capacity is so easily exceeded that doesn't really matter (even those making television appearances for the Trump administration have started saying that in the past 24 hours).

 

Here's a logic problem that's even faster. Another way of looking at it is that the USA's population is growing and healthcare capacity has been declining, in large part due to legislation and administrative action or inaction. The USA has less capacity per capita than China or Italy. China is historically ground zero for this type thing and has more experience with it than the USA. Why would we handle it better than them and what are the odds of that happening?

 

P.S. The WHO finally declared it a pandemic.

 

Got it, thanks.  I thought you were talking about the modeling that SJ was referencing, so was curious to see if there was another approach.  Appreciate you typing it out. 

[Read the Footnotes]

Thanks, that's a helpful perspective to understand the disconnect given your view.  So a few follow up questions / thoughts:

 

1) If it's been here for that long, is it possible that people are dying in smaller numbers and we haven't been seeing them due to the deaths being dispersed and thus not counted as COVID19 related deaths?  Is there a national database to check real time death rate (regardless of cause of death)?

2) Is it possible that the density of our cities decrease R0 vs. other countries (along with an advanced heads up from seeing what happened in Wuhan)?

3) Is CFR lower than what we have been told?  Or maybe virus has mutated?

 

I don't know what else could cause a disconnect between your hypothesis that it's been here for a while, and the lack of impact we are seeing.  Either you are wrong about the date of arrival and the number of people in the population, or the R0/CFR rates are wrong or changing significantly, or we're not capturing the impact somehow.  What else could it be?

You weren't asking me, but I will answer anyway.

 

1) If there were 1,000 undetected cases in the USA 4 weeks ago, some of them could have easily presented to the hospital by now. Since our healthcare system would have been functioning extremely well, they would have received excellent care and the chance of any of them dying would be less than 1%. So even if it is possible that there was 1,000 cases a month ago and severe cases had enough time to progress to death, we would expect to see less than 10 deaths at this point across the entire nation of 370 million people. Plus doctors who know that they are dealing with COVID-19 are flummoxed by how to respond. What are the odds that it catches their attention if they don't realize it's COVID-19?

 

2) There will definitely be a wide range of regional outcomes and population density is just one of many factors that will influence it. Wuhan is definitely on the less desirable end of the distribution of population densities if you're shopping for a nice condo with a low chance of epidemic.

 

3) There are believed to be two different strains already with differing virulence. But the most important thing to understand is the bimodal distribution of outcomes depending upon whether local hospitals are overwhelmed or not. A system that could have a CFR < 1% in the best of times, could have a CFR of 15-20% during the worst of times.

[Kaegi2011]

Thanks, that's a helpful perspective to understand the disconnect given your view.  So a few follow up questions / thoughts:

 

1) If it's been here for that long, is it possible that people are dying in smaller numbers and we haven't been seeing them due to the deaths being dispersed and thus not counted as COVID19 related deaths?  Is there a national database to check real time death rate (regardless of cause of death)?

2) Is it possible that the density of our cities decrease R0 vs. other countries (along with an advanced heads up from seeing what happened in Wuhan)?

3) Is CFR lower than what we have been told?  Or maybe virus has mutated?

 

I don't know what else could cause a disconnect between your hypothesis that it's been here for a while, and the lack of impact we are seeing.  Either you are wrong about the date of arrival and the number of people in the population, or the R0/CFR rates are wrong or changing significantly, or we're not capturing the impact somehow.  What else could it be?

You weren't asking me, but I will answer anyway.

 

1) If there were 1,000 undetected cases in the USA 4 weeks ago, some of them could have easily presented to the hospital by now. Since our healthcare system would have been functioning extremely well, they would have received excellent care and the chance of any of them dying would be less than 1%. So even if it is possible that there was 1,000 cases a month ago and severe cases had enough time to progress to death, we would expect to see less than 10 deaths at this point across the entire nation of 370 million people. Plus doctors who know that they are dealing with COVID-19 are flummoxed by how to respond. What are the odds that it catches their attention if they don't realize it's COVID-19?

 

2) There will definitely be a wide range of regional outcomes and population density is just one of many factors that will influence it. Wuhan is definitely on the less desirable end of the distribution of population densities if you're shopping for a nice condo with a low chance of epidemic.

 

3) There are believed to be two different strains already with differing virulence. But the most important thing to understand is the bimodal distribution of outcomes depending upon whether local hospitals are overwhelmed or not. A system that could have a CFR < 1% in the best of times, could have a CFR of 15-20% during the worst of times.

 

1) I agree. That's why I was trying to see if there's a national deaths count database we can watch going forward for upticks.  Unless there were tens or hundreds of thousands infected four weeks ago I'm not sure we'd really see the signs just yet.  I think this is the most reasonable way to bridge Orthopa's view of there being a lot of cases a while ago and the fact that hte system isn't collapsing. 

 

2) Yup, one of my hypothesis as well given our spread out we are in the US, but I haven't heard anyone talk about R0's relationship with density.

 

3) Good point, esp as it relates to point #1.

[Read the Footnotes]

For me all it took was a piece of paper, a calculator and less than three minutes to scare the crap out of me, but of course I know a bit about healthcare and I've done enough bootstrap modeling in the past that I didn't think building a statistical model was worth the time. I could see it in my head.

 

Could you share the logic please to those who are less informed?  :)

 

If you've studied operations management or even just managed a team or operation, you will know that you want to focus on the bottleneck. As soon as you eliminate that bottleneck another will appear, so then you need to deal with that.

 

So a fast way to identify that we could have a problem is simply identify the bottlenecks and then see how easy it is to exceed capacity. Obviously the easiest healthcare capacity numbers to come up with are aggregate numbers for the whole country and things will vary a lot by region, but capacity is so easily exceeded that doesn't really matter (even those making television appearances for the Trump administration have started saying that in the past 24 hours).

 

Here's a logic problem that's even faster. Another way of looking at it is that the USA's population is growing and healthcare capacity has been declining, in large part due to legislation and administrative action or inaction. The USA has less capacity per capita than China or Italy. China is historically ground zero for this type thing and has more experience with it than the USA. Why would we handle it better than them and what are the odds of that happening?

 

P.S. The WHO finally declared it a pandemic.

 

Got it, thanks.  I thought you were talking about the modeling that SJ was referencing, so was curious to see if there was another approach.  Appreciate you typing it out.

 

I found my previous relevant posts from a few days ago. It will give you a point estimate. The important thing to note is that many hospitals have gone bankrupt in the past three years, or have been shutdown due to the removal of subsidies. Some have extra capacity, some have a lot of elective procedures, many today are operated toward maximum efficiency during the good times and cannot easily generate extra capacity. Keep that in mind when you read the comments below. 

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3

 

As part of the presentation to hospitals, Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his "best guess" estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US.

 

Lawler's estimates include:

 

    4.8 million hospitalizations associated with the novel coronavirus

    96 million cases overall in the US

    480,000 deaths

    Overall, the slide points out that hospitals should prepare for an impact to the system that's 10 times a severe flu season.

 

Here's the slide:

https://i.insider.com/5e62a449fee23d58c83a9e62?width=1300&format=jpeg&auto=webp

 

In the USA, there are roughly 2.8 beds per 1,000 people. Canada is a bit lower, China about 30% higher.

 

Early reports indicated that roughly 20% of patients received hospitalization. If that were the experience in the United States, then with a population of 330 million people, we could house at most 4,620,000 patients, under the ridiculous assumption that all elective procedures are cancelled, and that all unscheduled accidents, illnesses and disease are cancelled indefinitely. That works our to 1.4% representing an upper limit on how much of the population could suffer from the illness at once without the need of temporary hospitals etc. In practice the real number would obviously be much lower.

 

Beds are not going to be the bottleneck in the system. Roughly 19% were reported to need support breathing, primarily meaning the provision of oxygen. More disturbingly, 5% needed assistance breathing.

 

So the real limit is likely not the number of beds or the number of respirators, but the number of ventilators. Making things worse, many needed ventilation for weeks.

 

If 5% of those affected need access to a ventilator, that provides a much lower estimate of the bottleneck and system capacity. There are roughly 20 full feature ventilators per 100,000 people in the USA. Doing the math again with 5% needing access would give you an estimate of a maximum capacity for 1,320,000 people to be sick at once in the USA, or only 0.4% of the population. Again these estimates assume no elective procedures and no other illnesses. The number is a little fuzzy because access varies substantially by region, and ventilators can be repurposed from the OR, but might need reprogramming which has been done before in these types of situations.

 

Given estimates that 40% of the population could contract the virus within the first year, it quickly becomes evident that the system capacity could be exceeded. When the access to oxygen therapy and ventilation is not available, the outcomes previously were terrible. The death rates absolutely skyrocket. If the patient needs oxygen or needs life support and it's not there, it will not go well for that patient.

 

Standard of care may have already improved, and social distancing may help dramatically. Every days delay might make a difference in the outcomes. In that case these inputs may not be relevant. Early detection seems to make a big difference. Antiviral treatments might also make a big impact.

 

So although the bad news is that this is a exponential process with multiple tipping points, and when the final tipping points are crossed the case fatality rates skyrocket.

 

The good news is that this is not a determinate process, we are all players in the game and can change the outcome. There are many things that we can do and that have already been done to delay the spread, to buy time and to prepare.

 

Hopefully leadership at all levels around the world will improve. There are many encouraging reports along those lines in North America today.

[no_free_lunch]

 

In the USA, there are roughly 2.8 beds per 1,000 people. Canada is a bit lower, China about 30% higher.

 

Early reports indicated that roughly 20% of patients received hospitalization. If that were the experience in the United States, then with a population of 330 million people, we could house at most 4,620,000 patients, under the ridiculous assumption that all elective procedures are cancelled, and that all unscheduled accidents, illnesses and disease are cancelled indefinitely. That works our to 1.4% representing an upper limit on how much of the population could suffer from the illness at once without the need of temporary hospitals etc. In practice the real number would obviously be much lower.

 

Beds are not going to be the bottleneck in the system. Roughly 19% were reported to need support breathing, primarily meaning the provision of oxygen. More disturbingly, 5% needed assistance breathing.

 

So the real limit is likely not the number of beds or the number of respirators, but the number of ventilators. Making things worse, many needed ventilation for weeks.

 

If 5% of those affected need access to a ventilator, that provides a much lower estimate of the bottleneck and system capacity. There are roughly 20 full feature ventilators per 100,000 people in the USA. Doing the math again with 5% needing access would give you an estimate of a maximum capacity for 1,320,000 people to be sick at once in the USA, or only 0.4% of the population. Again these estimates assume no elective procedures and no other illnesses. The number is a little fuzzy because access varies substantially by region, and ventilators can be repurposed from the OR, but might need reprogramming which has been done before in these types of situations.

 

Given estimates that 40% of the population could contract the virus within the first year, it quickly becomes evident that the system capacity could be exceeded. When the access to oxygen therapy and ventilation is not available, the outcomes previously were terrible. The death rates absolutely skyrocket. If the patient needs oxygen or needs life support and it's not there, it will not go well for that patient.

 

Standard of care may have already improved, and social distancing may help dramatically. Every days delay might make a difference in the outcomes. In that case these inputs may not be relevant. Early detection seems to make a big difference. Antiviral treatments might also make a big impact.

 

So although the bad news is that this is a exponential process with multiple tipping points, and when the final tipping points are crossed the case fatality rates skyrocket.

 

The good news is that this is not a determinate process, we are all players in the game and can change the outcome. There are many things that we can do and that have already been done to delay the spread, to buy time and to prepare.

 

Hopefully leadership at all levels around the world will improve. There are many encouraging reports along those lines in North America today.

 

Based on the number you listed, if there are 2.8 beds per 1k people, there would only be around 1m beds in total.  Where did you get 4.6m beds from?

[Read the Footnotes]

 

In the USA, there are roughly 2.8 beds per 1,000 people. Canada is a bit lower, China about 30% higher.

 

Early reports indicated that roughly 20% of patients received hospitalization. If that were the experience in the United States, then with a population of 330 million people, we could house at most 4,620,000 patients, under the ridiculous assumption that all elective procedures are cancelled, and that all unscheduled accidents, illnesses and disease are cancelled indefinitely. That works our to 1.4% representing an upper limit on how much of the population could suffer from the illness at once without the need of temporary hospitals etc. In practice the real number would obviously be much lower.

 

Beds are not going to be the bottleneck in the system. Roughly 19% were reported to need support breathing, primarily meaning the provision of oxygen. More disturbingly, 5% needed assistance breathing.

 

So the real limit is likely not the number of beds or the number of respirators, but the number of ventilators. Making things worse, many needed ventilation for weeks.

 

If 5% of those affected need access to a ventilator, that provides a much lower estimate of the bottleneck and system capacity. There are roughly 20 full feature ventilators per 100,000 people in the USA. Doing the math again with 5% needing access would give you an estimate of a maximum capacity for 1,320,000 people to be sick at once in the USA, or only 0.4% of the population. Again these estimates assume no elective procedures and no other illnesses. The number is a little fuzzy because access varies substantially by region, and ventilators can be repurposed from the OR, but might need reprogramming which has been done before in these types of situations.

 

Given estimates that 40% of the population could contract the virus within the first year, it quickly becomes evident that the system capacity could be exceeded. When the access to oxygen therapy and ventilation is not available, the outcomes previously were terrible. The death rates absolutely skyrocket. If the patient needs oxygen or needs life support and it's not there, it will not go well for that patient.

 

Standard of care may have already improved, and social distancing may help dramatically. Every days delay might make a difference in the outcomes. In that case these inputs may not be relevant. Early detection seems to make a big difference. Antiviral treatments might also make a big impact.

 

So although the bad news is that this is a exponential process with multiple tipping points, and when the final tipping points are crossed the case fatality rates skyrocket.

 

The good news is that this is not a determinate process, we are all players in the game and can change the outcome. There are many things that we can do and that have already been done to delay the spread, to buy time and to prepare.

 

Hopefully leadership at all levels around the world will improve. There are many encouraging reports along those lines in North America today.

 

Based on the number you listed, if there are 2.8 beds per 1k people, there would only be around 1m beds in total.  Where did you get 4.6m beds from?

Thanks for finding the typo.

 

That should have read "without exceeding capacity, we can have at most 4,620,000 people sick simultaneously". That is 5x the number of beds, which as you stated is just under 1 million, using the estimate of 20% hospitalizations.

 

I think my writing regarding ventilation was bit more free of typos, and hopefully more clear. Of course the assumption that there are tons of empty beds and excess ventilators is a bit ridiculous, but is easily dismissed because if we are in trouble with unreasonably optimistic assumptions, we will be in trouble with more realistic capacity assumptions, which is now consistent with messaging pretty much around the world.

[kab60]

Denmark is basically locked down for two weeks now. Our prime minister is currently giving a press briefing. School is off for two weeks, public workers (who aren't in healthcare etc.) are off with paid leave (those who can must work remotely). Daycare/kindergarden (which pretty much everyone uses) pretty much closes. Gatherings above 100 people inside is banned. Bar, clubs etc. closed for two weeks. This is definately much more serious for the Economy than what I contemplated just one week ago.

[Guest Schwab711]

It's going to need to happen in nearly every country as close to simultaneously as possible for maximum effect. Then we may have to do this all over again in September/October to contain the restart of more favorable transmission conditions. Hopefully folks in the Southern Hemisphere manage well over the next several months.

[Kaegi2011]

It's going to need to happen in nearly every country as close to simultaneously as possible for maximum effect. Then we may have to do this all over again in September/October to contain the restart of more favorable transmission conditions. Hopefully folks in the Southern Hemisphere manage well over the next several months.

 

Has anyone found data yet on weather vs. transmission?  I'm looking at Singapore and it's like 90 degrees F right now, and it's spreading. 

[KCLarkin]

For the "it's just the flu crowd":

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/philadelphia-threw-wwi-parade-gave-thousands-onlookers-flu-180970372/

 

American delayed action on COVID-19 is a crime against humanity.

[james22]

American delayed action on COVID-19 is a crime against humanity.

 

::)

[Spekulatius]

Is it just me or is the polarization on this thread odd to other people too? It seems like a lot of people are either in the (1) it's just the flu and a nothingburger or (2) omfg this is going to overwhelm everything camps. (I'm throwing out the dude on the other thread who said this is an "extinction level event" because... I mean, come on.)

 

Where are my "this is concerning, and we are watching developments with caution" folks?

 

Though it is unfortunate, I think it is less odd considering the following factors related to how people process information:

 

 

I think part of the reason why watching the developments with caution doesn’t really apply here is be Successful in investing you need to anticipate movements rather than just react to it. In the current situation, the ground is rapidly shifting and the outcome is quite unclear. It is a situation that is somewhere in between the GFC and 9/11 in my opinion, but others think that it’s just a flu. The divergence of outcomes and opinions is immense and there I are lot of type A personalities  here (typical for finance), so this quickly gets very heated.

[ERICOPOLY]

Was at Costco in Roseville, CA today.  No paper towels, no toilet paper, no pasta, no rice, no canned tomatoes/sauce.

 

Went to Walmart next and grabbed the last bag of lentils off the shelf and a few of the last remaining bags of brown rice. They had lots of canned tomatoes. All of the TopRamen was gone, so I went to the asian foods aisle and stocked up on Sapporo Ichiban.  Walmart still had pasta.  Walmart was completely out of dried chickpeas, dried pinto beans, dried kidney beans.

 

The trouble with telling everyone to keep two weeks' of food on hand is that the stores don't have it on the shelves when everyone wants it all at once.

[Spekulatius]

Was at Costco in Roseville, CA today.  No paper towels, no toilet paper, no pasta, no rice, no canned tomatoes/sauce.

 

Went to Walmart next and grabbed the last bag of lentils off the shelf and a few of the last remaining bags of brown rice. They had lots of canned tomatoes. All of the TopRamen was gone, so I went to the asian foods aisle and stocked up on Sapporo Ichiban.  Walmart still had pasta.  Walmart was completely out of dried chickpeas, dried pinto beans, dried kidney beans.

 

The trouble with telling everyone to keep two weeks' of food on hand is that the stores don't have it on the shelves when everyone wants it all at once.

 

Sound like your area is worse off than my area MA/NH border.  My wife was at Costco yesterday and noticed that Thai rice was gone , but Indian rice still available. hand sanitizer gone, but most of everything else still available.

 

Our Costco has hired extra people to wipe & sanitize shopping cards and fridge doors etc. constantly. Great idea, imo.

[Gregmal]

Was at Costco in Roseville, CA today.  No paper towels, no toilet paper, no pasta, no rice, no canned tomatoes/sauce.

 

Went to Walmart next and grabbed the last bag of lentils off the shelf and a few of the last remaining bags of brown rice. They had lots of canned tomatoes. All of the TopRamen was gone, so I went to the asian foods aisle and stocked up on Sapporo Ichiban.  Walmart still had pasta.  Walmart was completely out of dried chickpeas, dried pinto beans, dried kidney beans.

 

The trouble with telling everyone to keep two weeks' of food on hand is that the stores don't have it on the shelves when everyone wants it all at once.

 

This+ an LOL at the folks stocking up on perishables. They do go bad...

 

Maybe this is some covert economic stimulus scheme. People will be buying 2 weeks worth of crap for the next 6 months...I had to wait 15 minutes at Dicks Sporting Goods this weekend to pickup some braided fishing line.

[StubbleJumper]

Was at Costco in Roseville, CA today.  No paper towels, no toilet paper, no pasta, no rice, no canned tomatoes/sauce.

 

Went to Walmart next and grabbed the last bag of lentils off the shelf and a few of the last remaining bags of brown rice. They had lots of canned tomatoes. All of the TopRamen was gone, so I went to the asian foods aisle and stocked up on Sapporo Ichiban.  Walmart still had pasta.  Walmart was completely out of dried chickpeas, dried pinto beans, dried kidney beans.

 

The trouble with telling everyone to keep two weeks' of food on hand is that the stores don't have it on the shelves when everyone wants it all at once.

 

 

Fascinating.  Do Americans even eat that shit?  If you have Covid-19, do you want to spend 45 minute boiling chickpeas, or do you want to throw a frozen lasagna or frozen pizza into the oven?  Brown rice, lol. 

 

 

SJ

[ERICOPOLY]

Was at Costco in Roseville, CA today.  No paper towels, no toilet paper, no pasta, no rice, no canned tomatoes/sauce.

 

Went to Walmart next and grabbed the last bag of lentils off the shelf and a few of the last remaining bags of brown rice. They had lots of canned tomatoes. All of the TopRamen was gone, so I went to the asian foods aisle and stocked up on Sapporo Ichiban.  Walmart still had pasta.  Walmart was completely out of dried chickpeas, dried pinto beans, dried kidney beans.

 

The trouble with telling everyone to keep two weeks' of food on hand is that the stores don't have it on the shelves when everyone wants it all at once.

 

 

Fascinating.  Do Americans even eat that shit?  If you have Covid-19, do you want to spend 45 minute boiling chickpeas, or do you want to throw a frozen lasagna or frozen pizza into the oven?  Brown rice, lol. 

 

 

SJ

 

I cook channa masala in my crockpot — need dried chickpeas for it so they draw in the flavor as they rehydrate.  I don’t eat dairy so no frozen lasagna/pizza.

 

I always eat brown rice — prefer the texture and flavor. 

[cobafdek]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[Castanza]

I plan on living off take out Chinese food. Nobody else is ordering it and it’s always ready in 10 minutes.

 

Edit: not to mention the 65lbs of ground venison I still have  :o

[StubbleJumper]

Was at Costco in Roseville, CA today.  No paper towels, no toilet paper, no pasta, no rice, no canned tomatoes/sauce.

 

Went to Walmart next and grabbed the last bag of lentils off the shelf and a few of the last remaining bags of brown rice. They had lots of canned tomatoes. All of the TopRamen was gone, so I went to the asian foods aisle and stocked up on Sapporo Ichiban.  Walmart still had pasta.  Walmart was completely out of dried chickpeas, dried pinto beans, dried kidney beans.

 

The trouble with telling everyone to keep two weeks' of food on hand is that the stores don't have it on the shelves when everyone wants it all at once.

 

 

Fascinating.  Do Americans even eat that shit?  If you have Covid-19, do you want to spend 45 minute boiling chickpeas, or do you want to throw a frozen lasagna or frozen pizza into the oven?  Brown rice, lol. 

 

 

SJ

 

I cook channa masala in my crockpot — need dried chickpeas for it so they draw in the flavor as they rehydrate.  I don’t eat dairy so no frozen lasagna/pizza.

 

I always eat brown rice — prefer the texture and flavor.

 

 

Well, if you've got a way to prepare it that doesn't involve too much effort, it would be perfectly fine when you are ill.  My experience with chickpeas and dried beans is cooking them with a pressure cooker and then going to the second step of making a meal with them.  I'd buy 24 cans of chickpeas before I'd ever buy a bag of dried chickpeas, particularly if I planned to use them when I'm not feeling well!  I ate a can of black beans today, and it was dead-easy!

 

But brown rice instead of a perfumed rice?  I know that you have plenty of money to buy basmati or jasmine!

 

SJ

[StubbleJumper]

Was at Costco in Roseville, CA today.  No paper towels, no toilet paper, no pasta, no rice, no canned tomatoes/sauce.

 

Went to Walmart next and grabbed the last bag of lentils off the shelf and a few of the last remaining bags of brown rice. They had lots of canned tomatoes. All of the TopRamen was gone, so I went to the asian foods aisle and stocked up on Sapporo Ichiban.  Walmart still had pasta.  Walmart was completely out of dried chickpeas, dried pinto beans, dried kidney beans.

 

The trouble with telling everyone to keep two weeks' of food on hand is that the stores don't have it on the shelves when everyone wants it all at once.

 

 

Fascinating.  Do Americans even eat that shit?  If you have Covid-19, do you want to spend 45 minute boiling chickpeas, or do you want to throw a frozen lasagna or frozen pizza into the oven?  Brown rice, lol. 

 

 

SJ

 

I cook channa masala in my crockpot — need dried chickpeas for it so they draw in the flavor as they rehydrate.  I don’t eat dairy so no frozen lasagna/pizza.

 

I always eat brown rice — prefer the texture and flavor.

 

 

Ahh, I just looked it up.  Chana masala is made with kabulis rather than desis.  Canada exports a lot of kabulis, but they are a bit more difficult to grow.

[Read the Footnotes]

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

This is well done. Thank you for sharing.