Coronavirus

[KCLarkin]

And Sweden hasn't been spared despite their herd immunity approach.

 

 

[DocSnowball]

https://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2020/03/coronavirus-getting-angry.html

 

Another letter from Bronte. I put this here because he talks a lot about behavioral aspects of the Coronavirus as well as investing implications. I understand many here don’t like him, but I find his reasoning very sound:

http://files.brontecapital.com/amalthea/Amalthea_Letter_202009.pdf

 

Thanks for sharing. This is such a delight to read, coming up with one's version of a behavioral model building on the pure viral dynamics model. Love the benefit versus risk framework that decides what individuals end up doing, to be able to understand and empathize with their decisions. On reflection, I can recognize that in this current phase people are making decisions based on perceived social and economic benefits much more than pure virus driven thinking that was dominant in the beginning. Overall bodes well for economic recovery in the medium and long term.

[cwericb]

Graph showing infection rates in Canada and US by State and Province. Bottom four are the Atlantic Provinces that have formed their own bubble and anyone traveling into those provinces must isolate for 14 days.

 

https://scontent-lga3-2.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/125537019_1792435374250121_7315521977690977436_n.jpg?_nc_cat=106&ccb=2&_nc_sid=8bfeb9&_nc_ohc=ZscIoHuaImsAX95U4kS&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-2.xx&oh=9df3a7b9b29dbfefda3ad728424c6be3&oe=5FD79FD6

[Investor20]

Spain and Italy are trying the localized lockdown approach it and doesn't seem to be working anywhere near as well as national lockdowns imposed by most other major European countries. And Sweden hasn't been spared despite their herd immunity approach.

 

Or may be last time the temperatures are going up in Spring to Summer.

 

This time the temperatures going down from Fall to Winter.

 

https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-pro-mask-study-withdrawn-after-virus-spread-in-counties-analyzed-by-researchers

Horowitz: Pro-mask study withdrawn after virus spread in counties analyzed by researchers

[Investor20]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717

 

We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infections among U.S. Marine Corps recruits who underwent a 2-week quarantine at home followed by a second supervised 2-week quarantine at a closed college campus that involved mask wearing, social distancing, and daily temperature and symptom monitoring. Study volunteers were tested for SARS-CoV-2 by means of quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay of nares swab specimens obtained between the time of arrival and the second day of supervised quarantine and on days 7 and 14.

 

Recruits who did not volunteer for the study underwent qPCR testing only on day 14, at the end of the quarantine period. We performed phylogenetic analysis of viral genomes obtained from infected study volunteers to identify clusters and to assess the epidemiologic features of infections.

 

Results:

 

A total of 1848 recruits volunteered to participate in the study; within 2 days after arrival on campus, 16 (0.9%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 15 of whom were asymptomatic. An additional 35 participants (1.9%) tested positive on day 7 or on day 14.

 

 

Of the recruits who declined to participate in the study, 26 (1.7%) of the 1554 recruits with available qPCR results tested positive on day 14.

 

.......................................

 

I suppose for Marine Corps the compliance of  "2-week quarantine at a closed college campus that involved mask wearing, social distancing, and daily temperature and symptom monitoring" is almost perfect and had 1.9% positive cases.

"Of the recruits who declined to participate in the study, 26 (1.7%) ....tested positive"

 

 

 

[cwericb]

Chart as quoted in my previous post

[Gregmal]

Back to lockdown losers! Except of course for Gavin and Nancy...Parties and hair salons are only essential businesses if you think you are better than everyone else....

[John Hjorth]

Cigarbutt,

 

I, for one, have really-really appreciated your contributions to this topic here on CoBF. It's an extremely difficult topic for a layman like me. [Here : My intention was to post something about asking you to take care of your family & you ... [tell me/you about it! - because I know you already do!] :

 

Anyway:

 

I hope to read further posts from you in this topic. [Actually, it's my overall [not well defined, any] kind of perception, that you do not give in easily, but sure, enough can be enough].

 

Please take care [, however I know you don't need my advice]. I've enjoyed and grown intellectually by your posts in this topic so far.

[Cigarbutt]

^Glad that you appreciate John.

The biologic impact of the virus on my 'circle' has been limited even if my area remains in the "red zone". The restrictions impact has been more of a nagging nuisance. i hope everyone and everything is fine around you. Here's a recent link about the potential significance of your mink situation:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03218-z

The potential concern for the vaccine is related to the spike proteins (S-proteins) found on the surface of the virus.

and the mink mutations involve the spike proteins so there is theoretical concern about vaccine efficacy (the recent preliminary data from Pfizer and Moderna concern vaccines which target the S-protein area).

Do you realize how amazing those "messenger RNA" vaccines are and how rapidly research evolved over the last few months? It's basically a Manhattan Project with a goal to make a product that will prevent self assured destruction by the host. The ironic part is that mRNA vaccines work by deception.

-----

Going forward, the stuff i post here will focus on the investment side of things. This may change over time and don't hesitate if you have any questions.

[Investor20]

Even a Military-Enforced Quarantine Can’t Stop the Virus, Study Reveals

https://www.aier.org/article/even-a-military-enforced-quarantine-cant-stop-the-virus-study-reveals/

 

SARS-CoV-2 Transmission among Marine Recruits during Quarantine

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2029717

Conclusions

"Our study showed that in a group of predominantly young male military recruits, approximately 2% became positive for SARS-CoV-2, as determined by qPCR assay, during a 2-week, strictly enforced quarantine."

Published: November 11, 2020

 

"From May 12 to July 15, 2020, a total of 1848 of 3143 eligible recruits (58.8%) across nine recruit classes were enrolled in the CHARM study"

..............................................

 

This is a study that looked into "During the supervised quarantine, public health measures were enforced to suppress SARS-CoV-2 transmission".  This included wearing masks, hand washing, cleaning surfaces, distancing..regular testing.

...............................................

 

What I dont understand is why would a study done in May-July on how the public health measures when strictly enforced with Marine corp recruits whom I believe would follow directions perfectly would be published on November 11th?

 

Isnt this type of information policy makers and public need to know at the earliest?

 

 

 

[RichardGibbons]

I'm not sure there's actually new information here--basically a significant percentage of young Americans don't care about quarantines.

 

Or, you could say the average American marine recruit is less disciplined than most New Zealand civilians. :)

[Investor20]

I'm not sure there's actually new information here--basically a significant percentage of young Americans don't care about quarantines.

 

Or, you could say the average American marine recruit is less disciplined than most New Zealand civilians. :)

 

I am not sure if this is sarcasm....

 

2% of US population is 6 million + in two weeks....

[RichardGibbons]

I'm saying that you can instruct young American men to do something, but that doesn't mean that they'll do it.

[Investor20]

I'm saying that you can instruct young American men to do something, but that doesn't mean that they'll do it.

 

Even Marine corps recruits under supervision?

[orthopa]

I'm saying that you can instruct young American men to do something, but that doesn't mean that they'll do it.

 

Even Marine corps recruits under supervision?

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Masks unquestionably work. If examples are brought up to suggest they don't its undoubtedly quickly explained as laziness or irresponsibility of people even with wide spread usage. Irresponsibility seems to run contemporaneously on different continents.

 

2.1 For some reason  20%, 50%, 90% of people wearing masks all have the same outcome and you seem to get increasing cases. See 2 for an easy explanation why they don't work.  Hard math is then used to explain softly understood situations. Guilt is placed or ignorance is assumed based on the hard math as its obvious masks work and we quickly move on.

 

 

From my previous post. Around and Around the merry go round we go.

 

 

 

 

[RichardGibbons]

Even Marine corps recruits under supervision?

 

I don't know--perhaps. It sounds like a lot of stuff happens in the military while under supervision that isn't supposed to happen. So, is this disease that appears not to be taken seriously by young Americans the exception?

 

And in any case, they weren't under supervision at home, nor on the trip back to the base. If I were to pick the groups that would likely have the among the infection rate for this disease under self-enforced quarantine, American Marines would be one of those groups. (Well, demented people would be worse. But individualistic, fit, testosterone-filled young men who think they're immortal would be next.)

[KCLarkin]

For some reason  20%, 50%, 90% of people wearing masks all have the same outcome and you seem to get increasing cases.

 

Do you have any evidence for this? Or are you just spewing B.S.?

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Cigarbutt,

 

I think [i may be wrong about that, though] that you have no real perception of the value of your posts so far in this topic. So, please, keep them coming!  [ : - ) ]

[clutch]

Here is CNN acknowledging Trump and his administration on facilitating the successful and quick vaccine development:

 

[Investor20]

For some reason  20%, 50%, 90% of people wearing masks all have the same outcome and you seem to get increasing cases.

 

Do you have any evidence for this? Or are you just spewing B.S.?

 

Yes there was ......and were posted before, including by myself.

 

The four countries that wear masks most in Europe are Italy, France, UK, Spain as per yougov survey..check how these countries are doing with Covid please.

 

In US below article by National Geographic

 

92 percent of 2,200 Americans polled say they wear a face mask when leaving their home, with 74 percent saying they “always” do. (In October).

 

That “always” percentage is up nearly a quarter since July, according to the poll, which has a 2 percent margin of error.

 

The positivity rate in july in US is around 6-7%.  Now 12%. 

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/10/poll-increasing-bipartisan-majority-americans-support-mask-wearing/

[KCLarkin]

For some reason  20%, 50%, 90% of people wearing masks all have the same outcome and you seem to get increasing cases.

 

Do you have any evidence for this? Or are you just spewing B.S.?

 

Yes there was ......and were posted before, including by myself.

 

Sorry, I was looking for evidence not polling data. For example, you could do something like this:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.11.20192971v1.full.pdf

 

The results indicate that reported mask-wearing could play an important role in mitigating the growth of COVID-19. Widespread mask-wearing within a country associates with an expected 7% (95% CI: 3.94% — 9.99%) decline in the growth rate of daily active cases of COVID-19 in the country. This daily decline equates to an expected 88.5% drop in the growth of daily active cases over a 30-day period when compared to zero percent mask-wearing, all else held equal.

 

 

[Investor20]

For some reason  20%, 50%, 90% of people wearing masks all have the same outcome and you seem to get increasing cases.

 

Do you have any evidence for this? Or are you just spewing B.S.?

 

Yes there was ......and were posted before, including by myself.

 

Sorry, I was looking for evidence not polling data. For example, you could do something like this:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.11.20192971v1.full.pdf

 

The results indicate that reported mask-wearing could play an important role in mitigating the growth of COVID-19. Widespread mask-wearing within a country associates with an expected 7% (95% CI: 3.94% — 9.99%) decline in the growth rate of daily active cases of COVID-19 in the country. This daily decline equates to an expected 88.5% drop in the growth of daily active cases over a 30-day period when compared to zero percent mask-wearing, all else held equal.

 

That type studies are also being withdrawn:

 

https://fee.org/articles/authors-retract-study-showing-efficacy-of-mask-mandates-as-biden-pushes-nationwide-requirement/

Authors Retract Study Showing Efficacy of Mask Mandates

 

How many cases are there in areas that have mask mandates and high level of mask wearing such as Fr, Italy, UK, Spain is a good data point.  Why not?

[orthopa]

I'm sorry to tell you this. But even if the 24% number is correct, that is way, way short of even heard protection let alone heard immunity.

 

I agree with rb.

 

Furthermore, Investor20 posted a link to an empirical study, where antibodies appeared to fade away within about a few months.

 

The head of the Swedish Health Authority, Mr. Tegnell, yesterday publicly expressed concerns & second thoughts about the Swedish pandemic strategy, btw. [Ref. the Swedish situation has been touched recently in this topic.]

 

Personally, I'm very happy today, that my ticket in the ovarial lottery turned out to be Danish.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

In short : Don't challenge your own fate by trying to mess around with this sucker. [Also, I think that this is what Greg all the time has been expressing in his posts.]

 

Dont overlook cellular immunity which is the better way to look at immunity. Just looking at antibodies gives an incomplete picture and if not all the great majority of people should have long term immunity regardless of IgM, IgG antibody counts.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html

 

Wow we went from immunity may not last more then a couple months and you can get covid twice!!! to now immunity may last for decades. Wow things are coming around. 2 vaccines with >90% efficacy and all of sudden we have discovered this virus follows normal cellular immunity patterns. Rejoice! What a difference 3-4 weeks makes in the media and perception!!!

 

This truely is an exceptional time as we coalesce post election. Who would have thought. Now we just need some more evidence that people who bitch about covid symptoms for months afterwards are babies and we will be on the home stretch!!!!

[orthopa]

For some reason  20%, 50%, 90% of people wearing masks all have the same outcome and you seem to get increasing cases.

 

Do you have any evidence for this? Or are you just spewing B.S.?

 

Yes there was ......and were posted before, including by myself.

 

The four countries that wear masks most in Europe are Italy, France, UK, Spain as per yougov survey..check how these countries are doing with Covid please.

 

In US below article by National Geographic

 

92 percent of 2,200 Americans polled say they wear a face mask when leaving their home, with 74 percent saying they “always” do. (In October).

 

That “always” percentage is up nearly a quarter since July, according to the poll, which has a 2 percent margin of error.

 

The positivity rate in july in US is around 6-7%.  Now 12%. 

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/10/poll-increasing-bipartisan-majority-americans-support-mask-wearing/

 

BS? Huh. KC the longer this thread goes on its harder to tell if your just trying too hard or if this topic is just out of your circle of competence.

[orthopa]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chuck-grassley-senator-tests-positive-covid-19/

 

"Grassley's announcement comes after Alaska Congressman Don Young, who is also 87, tested positive for COVID-19 last week. Young is currently the longest-serving member of the House."

 

Uh oh.