Coronavirus

[LC]

NJ has 1793 deaths/million

NY has 1687 deaths/million

 

Texas has 280 deaths/million

Florida has 361 deaths/million

 

Are you saying NY & NJ listened to Trump and Texas & Florida did not listen to Trump?

 

IF you go by deaths per million, the top 10 states are

New Jersey, New York, Massachussetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Louisiana, District of Columbia, Michigan, Illinois, Missisippi.

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Congratulations, you have exhibited exactly why one needs to use data to inform and derive knowledge, rather than blindly follow.

[LC]

Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB

 

Curious where you've seen 'severity falling?' Awesome news if so.

 

I'd read that it was unlikely for this virus to mutate/change too quickly (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7)

 

I meant "severity is falling" in regards to Portugal, as corroborated by this post:

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg425878/#msg425878

 

No comment on the virus's severity, I am certainly not qualified to opine on that.

[Casey]

Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB

 

Curious where you've seen 'severity falling?' Awesome news if so.

 

I'd read that it was unlikely for this virus to mutate/change too quickly (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7)

 

I meant "severity is falling" in regards to Portugal, as corroborated by this post:

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg425878/#msg425878

 

No comment on the virus's severity, I am certainly not qualified to opine on that.

 

Ahh, gotcha. Thanks. I have been following things less closely recently. I do expect "severity" goes down in some sense - as we continue to figure out what works for treatments and hopefully get some vaccines going at some point

[John Hjorth]

Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB

 

Curious where you've seen 'severity falling?' Awesome news if so.

 

I'd read that it was unlikely for this virus to mutate/change too quickly (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7)

 

I meant "severity is falling" in regards to Portugal, as corroborated by this post:

https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg425878/#msg425878

 

No comment on the virus's severity, I am certainly not qualified to opine on that.

 

Ahh, gotcha. Thanks. I have been following things less closely recently. I do expect "severity" goes down in some sense - as we continue to figure out what works for treatments and hopefully get some vaccines going at some point

 

Interesting exchange between LC & Casey,

 

Now, please stop mentioning Denmark [in this topic] as one of the primary examples of "good pandemic counter measures" [simply because, it ain't [any longer]] :

 

1. Hot spot in Danish Crown meat processing plant in Ringsted, located about 50 km [or so] SW of Copenhagen, [spekulatius has posted about something similar going on in Germany recently], &

2. Things have started to go haywire [Corona-related] within the last few days in the second-largest city in Denmark : Aarhus. [in Jutland].

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

To me, it's just "Dunning-Kruger in second power". People are just so unbelievable stupid in their behavior.

 

[cwericb]

Latest I heard from Portugal is that there is a problem in Lisbon, but the rest of the country is not bad. This from my sister who has a second home in Portugal and has just returned to Canada and is finishing up her 14 day isolation.

[Liberty]

 

Per CDC and @nytimes we have lost over 200,000 Americans above normal in just over 4 months.

 

The large majority were preventable by simply adopting what the majority of countries do.

[Liberty]

Bill Gates interview:

 

https://www.wired.com/story/bill-gates-on-covid-most-us-tests-are-completely-garbage/

 

There’s three time periods, all of which have disappointments. There is 2015 until this particular pandemic hit. If we had built up the diagnostic, therapeutic, and vaccine platforms, and if we’d done the simulations to understand what the key steps were, we’d be dramatically better off. Then there’s the time period of the first few months of the pandemic, when the US actually made it harder for the commercial testing companies to get their tests approved, the CDC had this very low volume test that didn’t work at first, and they weren’t letting people test. The travel ban came too late, and it was too narrow to do anything. Then, after the first few months, eventually we figured out about masks, and that leadership is important.

 

...

 

The White House didn’t allow the CDC to do its job after March. There was a window where they were engaged, but then the White House didn’t let them do that. So the variance between the US and other countries isn’t that first period, it’s the subsequent period where the messages—the opening up, the leadership on masks, those things—are not the CDC’s fault. They said not to open back up; they said that leadership has to be a model of face mask usage. I think they have done a good job since April, but we haven’t had the benefit of it.

 

...

 

The irony is that this is a president who is a vaccine skeptic. Every meeting I have with him he is like, “Hey, I don’t know about vaccines, and you have to meet with this guy Robert Kennedy Jr. who hates vaccines and spreads crazy stuff about them.” ...

 

He, Roger Stone, Laura Ingraham. They do it in this kind of way: “I’ve heard lots of people say X, Y, Z.” That’s kind of Trumpish plausible deniability. Anyway, there was a meeting where Francis Collins, Tony Fauci, and I had to [attend], and they had no data about anything. When we would say, “But wait a minute, that’s not real data,” they’d say, “Look, Trump told you you have to sit and listen, so just shut up and listen anyway.” So it’s a bit ironic that the president is now trying to have some benefit from a vaccine.

[Spekulatius]

Also this:

But people aren’t getting their tests back quickly enough.

 

Well, that’s just stupidity. The majority of all US tests are completely garbage, wasted. If you don’t care how late the date is and you reimburse at the same level, of course they’re going to take every customer. Because they are making ridiculous money, and it’s mostly rich people that are getting access to that. You have to have the reimbursement system pay a little bit extra for 24 hours, pay the normal fee for 48 hours, and pay nothing [if it isn’t done by then]. And they will fix it overnight.

 

Why don’t we just do that?

 

Because the federal government sets that reimbursement system. When we tell them to change it they say, “As far as we can tell, we’re just doing a great job, it’s amazing!” Here we are, this is August. We are the only country in the world where we waste the most money on tests. Fix the reimbursement. Set up the CDC website. But I have been on that kick, and people are tired of listening to me.

 

FWIW, the speed of testing seems to vary a lot from state to state. In MA, my wife went to a testing station and got the results back in less than 24h. There are also  CVS rapid test stations around that are even quicker.

[Liberty]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025203

 

“ Successful Elimination of Covid-19 Transmission in New Zealand”

[Liberty]

Also this:

But people aren’t getting their tests back quickly enough.

 

Well, that’s just stupidity. The majority of all US tests are completely garbage, wasted. If you don’t care how late the date is and you reimburse at the same level, of course they’re going to take every customer. Because they are making ridiculous money, and it’s mostly rich people that are getting access to that. You have to have the reimbursement system pay a little bit extra for 24 hours, pay the normal fee for 48 hours, and pay nothing [if it isn’t done by then]. And they will fix it overnight.

 

Why don’t we just do that?

 

Because the federal government sets that reimbursement system. When we tell them to change it they say, “As far as we can tell, we’re just doing a great job, it’s amazing!” Here we are, this is August. We are the only country in the world where we waste the most money on tests. Fix the reimbursement. Set up the CDC website. But I have been on that kick, and people are tired of listening to me.

 

FWIW, the speed of testing seems to vary a lot from state to state. In MA, my wife went to a testing station and got the results back in less than 24h. There are also  CVS rapid test stations around that are even quicker.

 

Yeah, it's a mess because there's no federal leadership and resources to help places that fall behind or get the right incentives and guidelines uniformly. I'm hearing about a lot of places where it takes 10-14 days to get a result. By the time you get a "negative" result, you've had time to get infected, and you think you're negative (oh, I'm feeling bad, but it can't be COVID..) so you're even more dangerous because you may not quarantine even when feeling some symptoms..

[John Hjorth]

Also this:

But people aren’t getting their tests back quickly enough.

 

Well, that’s just stupidity. The majority of all US tests are completely garbage, wasted. If you don’t care how late the date is and you reimburse at the same level, of course they’re going to take every customer. Because they are making ridiculous money, and it’s mostly rich people that are getting access to that. You have to have the reimbursement system pay a little bit extra for 24 hours, pay the normal fee for 48 hours, and pay nothing [if it isn’t done by then]. And they will fix it overnight.

 

Why don’t we just do that?

 

Because the federal government sets that reimbursement system. When we tell them to change it they say, “As far as we can tell, we’re just doing a great job, it’s amazing!” Here we are, this is August. We are the only country in the world where we waste the most money on tests. Fix the reimbursement. Set up the CDC website. But I have been on that kick, and people are tired of listening to me.

 

FWIW, the speed of testing seems to vary a lot from state to state. In MA, my wife went to a testing station and got the results back in less than 24h. There are also  CVS rapid test stations around that are even quicker.

 

Yeah, it's a mess because there's no federal leadership and resources to help places that fall behind or get the right incentives and guidelines uniformly. I'm hearing about a lot of places where it takes 10-14 days to get a result. By the time you get a "negative" result, you've had time to get infected, and you think you're negative (oh, I'm feeling bad, but it can't be COVID..) so you're even more dangerous because you may not quarantine even when feeling some symptoms..

 

Pretty amazing read, to say the least.

 

Everything can be turned into a "problem", if one wants to [in the in casu situation]. *Shaking head* [Are those citizens awaiting their test outcomes not aware about what to do while waiting for test results?]

[Gregmal]

Well, when we excuse protests because "theyre protesting", this is the other side...

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/donald-trump-claims-members-golf-005822741.html

 

 

These people are hardly protesters, but theyre also not using BLM as an excuse to have this decades Woodstock moment...nevertheless, you make excuses for when/where the rules should be followed, you get blatant cases like this, where people just say "fuck you, I get to do it to"...

[StubbleJumper]

Also this:

But people aren’t getting their tests back quickly enough.

 

Well, that’s just stupidity. The majority of all US tests are completely garbage, wasted. If you don’t care how late the date is and you reimburse at the same level, of course they’re going to take every customer. Because they are making ridiculous money, and it’s mostly rich people that are getting access to that. You have to have the reimbursement system pay a little bit extra for 24 hours, pay the normal fee for 48 hours, and pay nothing [if it isn’t done by then]. And they will fix it overnight.

 

Why don’t we just do that?

 

Because the federal government sets that reimbursement system. When we tell them to change it they say, “As far as we can tell, we’re just doing a great job, it’s amazing!” Here we are, this is August. We are the only country in the world where we waste the most money on tests. Fix the reimbursement. Set up the CDC website. But I have been on that kick, and people are tired of listening to me.

 

FWIW, the speed of testing seems to vary a lot from state to state. In MA, my wife went to a testing station and got the results back in less than 24h. There are also  CVS rapid test stations around that are even quicker.

 

Yeah, it's a mess because there's no federal leadership and resources to help places that fall behind or get the right incentives and guidelines uniformly. I'm hearing about a lot of places where it takes 10-14 days to get a result. By the time you get a "negative" result, you've had time to get infected, and you think you're negative (oh, I'm feeling bad, but it can't be COVID..) so you're even more dangerous because you may not quarantine even when feeling some symptoms..

 

Pretty amazing read, to say the least.

 

Everything can be turned into a "problem", if one wants to [in the in casu situation]. *Shaking head* [Are those citizens awaiting their test outcomes not aware about what to do while waiting for test results?]

 

 

Not only are they seemingly unaware of what to do, the level of government that presumably has the authority to order them to self-isolate apparently has chosen to not impose that measure.  So, apparently the state governments have no responsibility in this.  Maybe I need to read the US constitution again?

 

SJ

[Cigarbutt]

Also this:

But people aren’t getting their tests back quickly enough.

Well, that’s just stupidity. The majority of all US tests are completely garbage, wasted. If you don’t care how late the date is and you reimburse at the same level, of course they’re going to take every customer. Because they are making ridiculous money, and it’s mostly rich people that are getting access to that. You have to have the reimbursement system pay a little bit extra for 24 hours, pay the normal fee for 48 hours, and pay nothing [if it isn’t done by then]. And they will fix it overnight.

Why don’t we just do that?

Because the federal government sets that reimbursement system. When we tell them to change it they say, “As far as we can tell, we’re just doing a great job, it’s amazing!” Here we are, this is August. We are the only country in the world where we waste the most money on tests. Fix the reimbursement. Set up the CDC website. But I have been on that kick, and people are tired of listening to me.

FWIW, the speed of testing seems to vary a lot from state to state. In MA, my wife went to a testing station and got the results back in less than 24h. There are also  CVS rapid test stations around that are even quicker.

Yeah, it's a mess because there's no federal leadership and resources to help places that fall behind or get the right incentives and guidelines uniformly. I'm hearing about a lot of places where it takes 10-14 days to get a result. By the time you get a "negative" result, you've had time to get infected, and you think you're negative (oh, I'm feeling bad, but it can't be COVID..) so you're even more dangerous because you may not quarantine even when feeling some symptoms..

Pretty amazing read, to say the least.

Everything can be turned into a "problem", if one wants to [in the in casu situation]. *Shaking head* [Are those citizens awaiting their test outcomes not aware about what to do while waiting for test results?]

Not only are they seemingly unaware of what to do, the level of government that presumably has the authority to order them to self-isolate apparently has chosen to not impose that measure.  So, apparently the state governments have no responsibility in this.  Maybe I need to read the US constitution again?

SJ

Some comments on the 'speed of testing' and The Art of War perspective (protracted and uncoordinated campaigns will tend to drain resources).

In a way, too many and not enough tests have been done. How possible? The number of tests done is impressive but, to this point, has lagged the community spread and recently the number of tests has been going down before a significant decrease in test positivity, which is very unusual and very hard to explain from a tactical point of view at the population level.

The 'strategy' has been to increase the supply of tests (no focus on the turnaround time, ie time to get the test back for practical efficiency) in a context of excessive demand preceding the rising supply.

https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/press-releases/cms-increases-medicare-payment-high-production-coronavirus-lab-tests-0#:~:text=Medicare%20will%20pay%20laboratories%20for,the%20spread%20of%20COVID%2D19.

A very inconvenient outcome is that the strain imposed on production (more units produced) has resulted in a poorer delivery of timely results because of the strain on resources (limited supply of chemicals, machine, personnel etc).

Normally, in any typical company, this would reach the Board of Directors' level.

 

In a related way, in order to 'solve' the demand-supply mismatch, top people (in the cacophony) have suggested the use of "pooled testing" (FDA recently approved). On paper, this is a great idea. It is a well established practice under some scenarios. Let's say you have 100 samples to test. Instead of testing 100 samples individually, you can pool some samples and if you can achieve a negative result for some pools, you end up doing less tests and obtain the same end result at the individual level. There is some concern about dilution and loss of test sensitivity but this can be worked out. Also, using interesting math, it is even possible to develop an efficient overlapping pools method in order to maximize efficient output productivity. The outcome of this method however (a lot of money is going in this direction now) depends on the pool size (the bigger pool the better) but the pool size, itself, is highly conditional on disease prevalence (level of community spread). For CV, it could be very effective with a 1% positivity rate but the method loses its effectiveness as the % goes up and, around 5 to 10% prevalence, it's possible that doing pooled testing results in about the same number of tests or even more with a significant impact on end consumer productivity (companies don't mind as long as more tests are done and more money per test is allocated).

The whole thing is very puzzling.

[LC]

A novel use of sewage testing to track coronavirus density:

 

[DooDiligence]

Lemann steps up in Brasil.

 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-brazil/brazilian-billionaire-lemann-leads-initiative-to-build-covid-19-vaccine-factory-idUKKCN2533AY

[Liberty]

https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/10/winter-is-coming-as-flu-season-nears-americas-window-of-opportunity-to-beat-back-covid-19-is-narrowing/

 

To put that in perspective, at this rate the U.S. is racking up more cases in a week than Britain has accumulated since the start of the pandemic.

[Gregmal]

Governor jackass in NJ continues his daily pressers. Its become clear that any success he had handling this originally, has been totally overshadowed by the selfish, "look at me" parade he continues to embark on. Yea, keep talking about how low the rates are and how great it is going, while suffocating your residents and still refusing to let businesses open. Keep sending in the police to arrest gym owners... and having state trooper drive-by's every half hour to harass every bar and restaurant....What a clown show.

 

Says Murphy....

“Believe me, I want to get to gyms, I want to get to indoor dining, I want to get to theaters,” Murphy said. “But we can’t do it if we think we’re gonna have a likelihood of killing people.”

 

Oh dont worry Goldman banker turned politician....you and Cuomo already set records for killing people....

 

Still waiting on all the hospitals going over capacity in Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas as well. Two more weeks I guess?

[LC]

Still waiting on all the hospitals going over capacity in Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas as well. Two more weeks I guess?

 

How right you are!

 

10,000 or so (I just eyeballed it) people died from COVID in Az & Tx over the past few weeks.

 

Morgue capacity is probably more necessary at this point.

[Gregmal]

Still waiting on all the hospitals going over capacity in Georgia, Arizona, Florida, and Texas as well. Two more weeks I guess?

 

How right you are!

 

10,000 or so (I just eyeballed it) people died from COVID in Az & Tx over the past few weeks.

 

Morgue capacity is probably more necessary at this point.

 

Indeed. Worse than NY for all them dumb red states didnt exactly play out. In fact, FL, GA, AZ, and TX have less deaths combined, than just NY. The relevant question right now for NY/NJ and those states....if you won't allow businesses to open in counties seeing less than 100 cases PER WEEK, well, when will they be able to open? And if you are forcing them shut(yea imagine that? A filthy rich Goldman banker putting mom and pop shops out of biz in order to bolster his political ambitions?) why do you continue to charge them property taxes? And at the "corporate rate" at that? Disgusting.

[LC]

In fact, FL, GA, AZ, and TX have less deaths combined, than just NY.

 

Not in the past few weeks!

 

Otherwise, you'll get no argument from me about how bad New Jersey is. In fact as a New Yorker, I'd be happy to contribute a few lines if you'd like...shall we start with the smell?  ;D

[Gregmal]

In fact, FL, GA, AZ, and TX have less deaths combined, than just NY.

 

Not in the past few weeks!

 

Otherwise, you'll get no argument from me about how bad New Jersey is. In fact as a New Yorker, I'd be happy to contribute a few lines if you'd like...shall we start with the smell?  ;D

 

Sure, not in the past few weeks. As has been said, they "ate their vegetables"... assuming you consider remdesivir a vegetable. Record vegetables eaten in March/April. 8-10% death rates...hardly the model. And now those that didnt die, are at the mercy of "I'll let you know when you can get on with your lives, but not anytime soon"....from Murphy and Cuomo...

[Spekulatius]

Well, when we excuse protests because "theyre protesting", this is the other side...

 

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/donald-trump-claims-members-golf-005822741.html

 

 

These people are hardly protesters, but theyre also not using BLM as an excuse to have this decades Woodstock moment...nevertheless, you make excuses for when/where the rules should be followed, you get blatant cases like this, where people just say "fuck you, I get to do it to"...

 

They may ust get it to themselves first, like Herman Cain did for the cause. These golf club members skew older, unlike the protesters.

[Castanza]

I talked with my brother in-law today. He lives in Ontario and said that they haven’t been required to wear a mask up until just two weeks ago.

[rb]

I talked with my brother in-law today. He lives in Ontario and said that they haven’t been required to wear a mask up until just two weeks ago.

Bullshit! You pretty much have to wear a mask anywhere you go in Ontario for a long time.