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Posted

 

LOL, that women “dancing” in front of the police car.

 

FWIW, if I were to guess the demographic that is mit likely to skirt mask rules based on my limited observations, it would be a young black male in his twenties.

 

I dont even think its politics or race. Young people will do what they want, and be rebellious. Immature middle aged(30-45 years old) will do what they want. This is a YUGE portion of the population. My greater point is that trying to place politics around much of this, is a sure fire way to....not get anywhere remotely useful in terms of solving the root of the problem. Is Cuomo responsible for the block parties in Astoria? Of course he isn't. He is somewhat respibsle for Cuomo chips though. If anyone read the article..."when asked for comment, an official Cuomo spokesperson commented that:

 

Cuomo senior adviser Rich Azzopardi said Friday that buying $1 chips complies with the food-requirement rule.

 

“It’s consistent with the guidance — but you have to be seated,” Azzopardi said.

 

 

Sooo. WTF is the point of even having the "no bars" policy then? Is it really just politics? So you can say "you did something"???

 

EDIT: Disney now updates rules after guests take advantage of "eating and drinking" while walking to skirt mask rules....Fucking Trump

Posted

 

LOL, that women “dancing” in front of the police car.

 

FWIW, if I were to guess the demographic that is mit likely to skirt mask rules based on my limited observations, it would be a young black male in his twenties.

 

I dont even think its politics or race. Young people will do what they want, and be rebellious. Immature middle aged(30-45 years old) will do what they want. This is a YUGE portion of the population. My greater point is that trying to place politics around much of this, is a sure fire way to....not get anywhere remotely useful in terms of solving the root of the problem. Is Cuomo responsible for the block parties in Astoria? Of course he isn't. He is somewhat respibsle for Cuomo chips though. If anyone read the article..."when asked for comment, an official Cuomo spokesperson commented that:

 

Cuomo senior adviser Rich Azzopardi said Friday that buying $1 chips complies with the food-requirement rule.

 

“It’s consistent with the guidance — but you have to be seated,” Azzopardi said.

 

 

Sooo. WTF is the point of even having the "no bars" policy then? Is it really just politics? So you can say "you did something"???

 

EDIT: Disney now updates rules after guests take advantage of "eating and drinking" while walking to skirt mask rules....Fucking Trump

 

Teens and even some percentage of adults are always likely to make some reckless choices. No doubt.

 

Some percent of teens are likely to take drugs, even if both parents are well meaning and do all the right things. But now imagine, if the parents say, drugs are no big deal, they might be fun to use once in a while, etc. I would think those teens are much more likely to take drugs.

 

Same applies here. Trump has influence on a big enough segment of the population that his example would be emulated. Even if say 5% or 10% of population end up wearing masks because of him it would be helpful.

 

So no, I disagree with your backhanded support to Trump that none of that would make any impact.

 

Vinod

Posted

South Korean Guidelines on how to conduct in-person meetings. Note how the masks are applicable with relation to ventilation & distancing:

 

Follow these guidelines when conducting in-person meetings:

 

[..........]

 

Take a break every hour to ventilate the space by opening doors and windows.  Maintain a distance of two meters between every attendee (minimum one meter). If this cannot be met, refrain from meeting in person. If the meeting is still necessary, ensure every attendee wears a mask, even when speaking.

 

Masks are up to personal discretion if ventilation and distancing can be followed.

 

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/south-korea-office-coronavirus-covid19-work-enviroment/

It is good advice. But given that in most office buildings in North America you cannot open windows that's not really that applicable.

 

Cover my ass here: I don't know what's the window situation in those low rise campuses in silicon valley.

 

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa939/5867798

Check at the end of third page of this article several mitigation strategies including HEPA filters and UV lights in the aircirculation systems.

 

Installing UV light is fairly cheap.

 

From above linked article:

 

Provide sufficient and effective ventilation (supply clean outdoor air, minimize

recirculating air) particularly in public buildings, workplace environments, schools,

hospitals, and aged care homes.

 

Supplement general ventilation with airborne infection controls such as local exhaust,

high efficiency air filtration, and germicidal ultraviolet lights.

 

Avoid overcrowding, particularly in public transport and public buildings.

 

 

Posted

From the Chris Wallace interview... The White House using data from the European Union CDC.

 

At this point you don't know whether to laugh or to cry.

Posted

 

LOL, that women “dancing” in front of the police car.

 

FWIW, if I were to guess the demographic that is mit likely to skirt mask rules based on my limited observations, it would be a young black male in his twenties.

 

I dont even think its politics or race. Young people will do what they want, and be rebellious. Immature middle aged(30-45 years old) will do what they want. This is a YUGE portion of the population. My greater point is that trying to place politics around much of this, is a sure fire way to....not get anywhere remotely useful in terms of solving the root of the problem. Is Cuomo responsible for the block parties in Astoria? Of course he isn't. He is somewhat respibsle for Cuomo chips though. If anyone read the article..."when asked for comment, an official Cuomo spokesperson commented that:

 

Cuomo senior adviser Rich Azzopardi said Friday that buying $1 chips complies with the food-requirement rule.

 

“It’s consistent with the guidance — but you have to be seated,” Azzopardi said.

 

 

Sooo. WTF is the point of even having the "no bars" policy then? Is it really just politics? So you can say "you did something"???

 

EDIT: Disney now updates rules after guests take advantage of "eating and drinking" while walking to skirt mask rules....Fucking Trump

 

Teens and even some percentage of adults are always likely to make some reckless choices. No doubt.

 

Some percent of teens are likely to take drugs, even if both parents are well meaning and do all the right things. But now imagine, if the parents say, drugs are no big deal, they might be fun to use once in a while, etc. I would think those teens are much more likely to take drugs.

 

Same applies here. Trump has influence on a big enough segment of the population that his example would be emulated. Even if say 5% or 10% of population end up wearing masks because of him it would be helpful.

 

So no, I disagree with your backhanded support to Trump that none of that would make any impact.

 

Vinod

 

Thats totally fine. Theres been more than enough presented, to get to where one needs, without it being a support/not support Trump issue. You have people from different age groups, demographics, income levels, and political affiliations, skirting social distancing rules and disregarding masks. Some love Trump, some hate him, most probably dont care either way. You have cases from 1918 where you had the same type of "anti mask" behavior, but if Anderson Cooper tells you a potato is a T Rex, you are more than free to blame Trump for bringing back the dinosaurs....

Posted

US death projections

 

Vv2HKHc.png

 

Source: https://www.covid-projections.com/

 

Obviously, these models have adjusted death rates to be much lower to be predicting these numbers, considering the rise in the number of cases. Seems obvious that more people are getting tested and more young people are getting the virus now.

Posted

 

HVAC professionals: viruses like SARS-2 stay airborne and can travel long distances in rooms & air ducts of ventilation systems. The Assoc. of European HVAC professionals proposes, esp. in ‘hot spots’ to take a set of measures that help to control the airborne route...1/3

 

...these include increasing fresh air supply and avoiding recirculation of air; increasing exhaust ventilation; staying away from poorly ventilated spaces, among other measures.

 

...US HVAC experts statement:

 

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through the air is sufficiently likely that airborne exposure to the virus should be controlled. Changes to building operations, including the operation of HVAC systems can reduce airborne exposure

 

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Posted

So apparently now the official line is that in the US things will get worse before they get any better. I guess that's code for "we really fucked this one up good". From a medical perspective pretty much anyone with half a brain already knew that.

 

From an economic perspective things are about to get interesting. In 3 days expanded unemployment benefits are going to end. You need another trillion+ bill that senate republicans can't agree what it should look like, then senate republicans can't line up with the white house on the bill. Basically nobody can find their dick in the dark. That's saying nothing that they'll have to agree on the bill with the democrats. This is where we are with 3 days to go:

 

“Our objective is to try to get something done before the enhanced unemployment insurance expires. There’s a lot of people who are still out of work,” Mnuchin said. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters, though, that it was very unlikely a deal would be reached by the end of next week, laughing and saying no when asked whether that was possible.

 

I think we're gonna have a shit show this go around.

Posted

I think we're gonna have a shit show this go around.

 

But markets are forward looking, so everything is gonna be just peachy, right? Right?

Posted

So apparently now the official line is that in the US things will get worse before they get any better. I guess that's code for "we really fucked this one up good". From a medical perspective pretty much anyone with half a brain already knew that.

 

From an economic perspective things are about to get interesting. In 3 days expanded unemployment benefits are going to end. You need another trillion+ bill that senate republicans can't agree what it should look like, then senate republicans can't line up with the white house on the bill. Basically nobody can find their dick in the dark. That's saying nothing that they'll have to agree on the bill with the democrats. This is where we are with 3 days to go:

 

“Our objective is to try to get something done before the enhanced unemployment insurance expires. There’s a lot of people who are still out of work,” Mnuchin said. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told reporters, though, that it was very unlikely a deal would be reached by the end of next week, laughing and saying no when asked whether that was possible.

 

I think we're gonna have a shit show this go around.

 

No worries, the Fed prints a lot of toilet paper.

Posted

 

I think the political message is just that Covid-19 is something we are just going to have to live with for a while longer. Eventually either a vaccine will be discovered or something approaching herd immunity will be reached. And in the meantime just as during wartime government will have carte blanche to spend as much as it wants with little political repercussions. So especially with an election looming another generous stimulus deal will get done.

 

 

Posted

On average, #COVID19 was associated with 14 years of life lost (YLL) for males, and 11 years for females in Australia.

This is larger than most of the major causes of death, including heart disease. CV19 is associated with substantial premature mortality.

https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/australias-health/australias-health-2020-data-insights/contents/summary

If interested, the following takes the life insurer's point of view and has a specific section "years of life lost" near the conclusion that covers the relevant methodology (references 21, 22 and 23).

https://www.swissre.com/reinsurance/life-and-health/l-h-risk-trends/unravelling-the-cost-of-lives-lost-covid-19.html

 

Submitted in the spirit of a balanced perspective:

-The years of life lost will vary from country to country and even from region to region because an older profile of deaths (higher proportion of deaths in chronic care homes) will mean a lower number of years lost.

-Even if the methodology is quite solid (by controlling for various factors retrospectively), the methodology does not take into account the adverse selection problem. People at higher risk of becoming sick, getting hospitalized and eventually dying have an intrinsic set of risk factors that cannot be well delineated retrospectively, at least at this point. This suggests that the numbers mentioned likely overestimate the years lost.

-Also, this needs to be considered from a quality of life point of view. Using a bottom-up perspective, a large number of people who died had very poor quality of life to start with.

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