Coronavirus

[Spekulatius]

The Washington Post, citing two people with knowledge of internal discussions, reported on Thursday that some officials had discussed the idea of canceling some of the massive U.S. debt held by China as a way to strike at Beijing for perceived shortfalls in its candidness on the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Trump's top economic adviser denied the report. "The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct. Period. Full stop," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Reuters.

 

Asked whether he would consider having the United States stop payment of its debt obligations as a way to punish Beijing, Trump said: "Well, I can do it differently. I can do the same thing, but even for more money, just by putting on tariffs. So, I don't have to do that."

 

www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/01/business/01reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-china.html

 

If this talk becomes more prevalent and Trump picks it up we are going to see a couple of limit down days in a row.

Treasuries will get absolutely destroyed with obvious consequences for the financial system.

[DooDiligence]

 

 

P is for Pence

 

;D

[DooDiligence]

The Washington Post, citing two people with knowledge of internal discussions, reported on Thursday that some officials had discussed the idea of canceling some of the massive U.S. debt held by China as a way to strike at Beijing for perceived shortfalls in its candidness on the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Trump's top economic adviser denied the report. "The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct. Period. Full stop," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Reuters.

 

Asked whether he would consider having the United States stop payment of its debt obligations as a way to punish Beijing, Trump said: "Well, I can do it differently. I can do the same thing, but even for more money, just by putting on tariffs. So, I don't have to do that."

 

www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/01/business/01reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-china.html

 

If this talk becomes more prevalent and Trump picks it up we are going to see a couple of limit down days in a row.

Treasuries will get absolutely destroyed with obvious consequences for the financial system.

 

He's been playing for small stakes with all his previous bankruptcies.

 

Now he wants to scale it up & show he's truly the master when it comes to running businesses into the ground.

[UK]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/05/37be03e4d191-over-117-mil-people-may-make-trips-in-china-during-may-day-holiday.html

More than 117 million people are likely to make trips in China during the five-day May Day holiday that started Friday

 

 

Nothing to see here guys. All new infections in China are now reported like "xxxx city got 30 new cases and that's because a foreign guy came over irresponsibly".

 

I think a 2nd wave is coming.

 

My friend recently went to a good restaurant in Wuhan. Still no one there. Her family was the only one. Where is the pent up demand after this is all over?

 

We have this on top of the most historical asset bubble. Just keep that in mind.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-23/wuhan-s-return-to-life-temperature-checks-and-constant-anxiety

 

Shopping malls and department stores are open again, but largely empty. The same is true of restaurants; people are ordering in instead. The subway is quiet, but autos are selling: If being stuck in traffic is annoying, at least it’s socially distanced.

 

After reopening on March 23, the dealership had been selling about seven cars per day, on pace with last year despite all the restrictions. Most were relatively low-end vehicles, such as the A3, which retails for about 200,000 yuan ($28,000)—the kind of car often bought by families to complement a bigger, fancier model. “People are not willing to take public transport in Wuhan,” said the marketing director, who asked to be identified by only his surname, Pan. “And they don’t dare commute by Didi”—the ubiquitous ride-hailing app. The focus now, Pan said, was on following up with people who’d expressed interest in an Audi in the past but hadn’t bought one. They might be ready to bite. The dealership was looking to expand its current staff of about 150, and employees would soon receive the pay they’d missed during the lockdown. Another salesperson added, “It’s like a boom.”

 

 

[samwise]

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-23/wuhan-s-return-to-life-temperature-checks-and-constant-anxiety

 

Shopping malls and department stores are open again, but largely empty. The same is true of restaurants; people are ordering in instead. The subway is quiet, but autos are selling: If being stuck in traffic is annoying, at least it’s socially distanced.

 

After reopening on March 23, the dealership had been selling about seven cars per day, on pace with last year despite all the restrictions. Most were relatively low-end vehicles, such as the A3, which retails for about 200,000 yuan ($28,000)—the kind of car often bought by families to complement a bigger, fancier model. “People are not willing to take public transport in Wuhan,” said the marketing director, who asked to be identified by only his surname, Pan. “And they don’t dare commute by Didi”—the ubiquitous ride-hailing app. The focus now, Pan said, was on following up with people who’d expressed interest in an Audi in the past but hadn’t bought one. They might be ready to bite. The dealership was looking to expand its current staff of about 150, and employees would soon receive the pay they’d missed during the lockdown. Another salesperson added, “It’s like a boom.”

 

Stock ideas? Car dealerships and second hand car retail? AN, KMX, CAMB, VTU?

[Viking]

The Washington Post, citing two people with knowledge of internal discussions, reported on Thursday that some officials had discussed the idea of canceling some of the massive U.S. debt held by China as a way to strike at Beijing for perceived shortfalls in its candidness on the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Trump's top economic adviser denied the report. "The full faith and credit of U.S. debt obligations is sacrosanct. Period. Full stop," White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Reuters.

 

Asked whether he would consider having the United States stop payment of its debt obligations as a way to punish Beijing, Trump said: "Well, I can do it differently. I can do the same thing, but even for more money, just by putting on tariffs. So, I don't have to do that."

 

www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/01/business/01reuters-health-coronavirus-usa-china.html

 

If this talk becomes more prevalent and Trump picks it up we are going to see a couple of limit down days in a row.

Treasuries will get absolutely destroyed with obvious consequences for the financial system.

 

He's been playing for small stakes with all his previous bankruptcies.

 

Now he wants to scale it up & show he's truly the master when it comes to running businesses into the ground.

 

This falls under the ‘holy shit’ category. Unbelievable.

[Jurgis]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-04-23/wuhan-s-return-to-life-temperature-checks-and-constant-anxiety

 

Shopping malls and department stores are open again, but largely empty. The same is true of restaurants; people are ordering in instead. The subway is quiet, but autos are selling: If being stuck in traffic is annoying, at least it’s socially distanced.

 

After reopening on March 23, the dealership had been selling about seven cars per day, on pace with last year despite all the restrictions. Most were relatively low-end vehicles, such as the A3, which retails for about 200,000 yuan ($28,000)—the kind of car often bought by families to complement a bigger, fancier model. “People are not willing to take public transport in Wuhan,” said the marketing director, who asked to be identified by only his surname, Pan. “And they don’t dare commute by Didi”—the ubiquitous ride-hailing app. The focus now, Pan said, was on following up with people who’d expressed interest in an Audi in the past but hadn’t bought one. They might be ready to bite. The dealership was looking to expand its current staff of about 150, and employees would soon receive the pay they’d missed during the lockdown. Another salesperson added, “It’s like a boom.”

 

Yeah, I was thinking "thank USA for the car culture". Makes going places during lockdown possible and tolerable.

[Investor20]

 

 

P is for Pence

 

;D

https://nypost.com/2020/04/05/dr-anthony-fauci-tests-negative-for-the-coronavirus/

Dr. Anthony Fauci tests negative for the coronavirus

 

Fauci was responding to a reporter’s question about why he was not wearing a face mask during the White House’s daily press briefing when he shared the test results.

 

“The major reason to wear a face mask, is to protect you from infecting you,” Fauci said while pointing into the press gallery.

 

“I had my test yesterday and it’s negative,” he said.

 

I believe that is the same reason Pence gave.  But really who is wearing?  Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci?

 

[Liberty]

I believe that is the same reason Pence gave.  But really who is wearing?  Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci?

 

Pence was in a hospital where there is an explicit rule about everybody wearing masks (everybody else was following that rule), and he was visiting patients. He wasn't in a press conference room in a federal building where everybody gets screened constantly.

 

See also: https://medium.com/@casanderson/mike-pence-and-the-bystander-effect-a698bbbe4d18

[DooDiligence]

I believe that is the same reason Pence gave.  But really who is wearing?  Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci?

 

Pence was in a hospital where there is an explicit rule about everybody wearing masks (everybody else was following that rule), and he was visiting patients. He wasn't in a press conference room in a federal building where everybody gets screened constantly.

 

See also: https://medium.com/@casanderson/mike-pence-and-the-bystander-effect-a698bbbe4d18

 

Pence, at a GM plant, clarifying exactly where the eyeballs are located in a human head.

 

[Investor20]

Sweden now has one of the highest per capita COVID death rates in the world, higher than the US, and about 6 times higher than neighboring Scandinavian countries. This suggests that a non-interventional approach is imprudent.

 

 

 

Taleb:

 

DYNAMIC vs STATIC

While the wisdom of a tail-risk decision under asymmetries is not to be decided after, comparative numbers for Sweden are much worse.

 

Sweden's numbers are growing at ~50-150 a day, Norway's 1-5. So expect the ratios to soon be 4000-6000 vs 220-250 for Norway.

 

Also: "Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19"

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

 

There are major exceptions to  "Sweden now has one of the highest per capita COVID death rates in the world" statement.

 

As per worldometer deaths/million

 

Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands have more per capita than Sweden.

 

That is a major portion of Europe has more than Sweden.

 

Sweden with 263 deaths/million is not that higher than

Ireland 256

Switzerland 202

USA 196

 

Why select three out of all these countries?

[Investor20]

I believe that is the same reason Pence gave.  But really who is wearing?  Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci?

 

Pence was in a hospital where there is an explicit rule about everybody wearing masks (everybody else was following that rule), and he was visiting patients. He wasn't in a press conference room in a federal building where everybody gets screened constantly.

 

See also: https://medium.com/@casanderson/mike-pence-and-the-bystander-effect-a698bbbe4d18

 

I am not defending Dr. Fauci logic.

 

But Dr. Fauci logic is if someone is tested negative, atleast in immediate future, they dont have to wear masks. 

Pence is using the same logic (as his expert Dr. Fauci told) that Pence got recently tested negative.

[ERICOPOLY]

Dr. Anthony Fauci tests negative for the coronavirus

 

Fauci was responding to a reporter’s question about why he was not wearing a face mask during the White House’s daily press briefing when he shared the test results.

 

“The major reason to wear a face mask, is to protect you from infecting you,” Fauci said while pointing into the press gallery.

 

“I had my test yesterday and it’s negative,” he said.

 

 

Fauci essentially is saying that he is confident that he isn't sick today if he was not sick yesterday.  That holds true every day going forward if it holds true for the last day past.  In other words, everybody testing positive today will never get the virus.

[Investor20]

Dr. Anthony Fauci tests negative for the coronavirus

 

Fauci was responding to a reporter’s question about why he was not wearing a face mask during the White House’s daily press briefing when he shared the test results.

 

“The major reason to wear a face mask, is to protect you from infecting you,” Fauci said while pointing into the press gallery.

 

“I had my test yesterday and it’s negative,” he said.

 

 

Fauci essentially is saying that he is confident that he isn't sick today if he was not sick yesterday.  That holds true every day going forward if it holds true for the last day past.  In other words, everybody testing positive today will never get the virus.

 

As I said, I am not defending Dr. Fauci logic.  But Dr. Fauci is Pence expert.

[arcube]

I believe that is the same reason Pence gave.  But really who is wearing?  Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci?

 

Pence was in a hospital where there is an explicit rule about everybody wearing masks (everybody else was following that rule), and he was visiting patients. He wasn't in a press conference room in a federal building where everybody gets screened constantly.

 

See also: https://medium.com/@casanderson/mike-pence-and-the-bystander-effect-a698bbbe4d18

 

Pence, at a GM plant, clarifying exactly where the eyeballs are located in a human head.

 

 

Hahahahaha. So much comedy here. Too bad it has become tragic!

[clutch]

 

There are major exceptions to  "Sweden now has one of the highest per capita COVID death rates in the world" statement.

 

As per worldometer deaths/million

 

Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands have more per capita than Sweden.

 

That is a major portion of Europe has more than Sweden.

 

Sweden with 263 deaths/million is not that higher than

Ireland 256

Switzerland 202

USA 196

 

Why select three out of all these countries?

 

Isn't it obvious to you?  ::)

Don't bother...

[Liberty]

I believe that is the same reason Pence gave.  But really who is wearing?  Cuomo, Newsom, Brix, Fauci?

 

Pence was in a hospital where there is an explicit rule about everybody wearing masks (everybody else was following that rule), and he was visiting patients. He wasn't in a press conference room in a federal building where everybody gets screened constantly.

 

See also: https://medium.com/@casanderson/mike-pence-and-the-bystander-effect-a698bbbe4d18

 

I am not defending Dr. Fauci logic.

 

But Dr. Fauci logic is if someone is tested negative, atleast in immediate future, they dont have to wear masks. 

Pence is using the same logic (as his expert Dr. Fauci told) that Pence got recently tested negative.

 

No, you don't understand. Pence was in a HOSPITAL with PATIENTS, where there's a RULE that EVERYONE wear masks. Some places are at higher risk than others, and some places have different rules. Taking a walk alone in the park isn't the same as sitting in a full airplane across the pacific ocean, for example.

 

The fact that Pence wore a mask after that (in a less sensitive place than a hospital) shows he realized he was just being an ass, and that whatever BS reasons they gave before were in fact BS.

[ERICOPOLY]

The fact that Pence wore a mask after that (in a less sensitive place than a hospital) shows he realized he was just being an ass, and that whatever BS reasons they gave before were in fact BS.

 

Pence's wife had a different story to tell.  She said that Mike didn't know about Mayo Clinic's rule, although she acknowledges that his staff knew about the rule.

 

Liars have conflicting stories to tell.

[Investor20]

 

There are major exceptions to  "Sweden now has one of the highest per capita COVID death rates in the world" statement.

 

As per worldometer deaths/million

 

Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK, France, Netherlands have more per capita than Sweden.

 

That is a major portion of Europe has more than Sweden.

 

Sweden with 263 deaths/million is not that higher than

Ireland 256

Switzerland 202

USA 196

 

Why select three out of all these countries?

 

Isn't it obvious to you?  ::)

Don't bother...

No its not obvious..  Geographically near had nothing to do with how this virus spread.

 

Most countries that are close to China...even with heavy travel such as SE asian countries have low Covid. Even HongKong did well.

 

So you tell me what criteria you used in picking three out of a lot of European countries to compare?

[Liberty]

The fact that Pence wore a mask after that (in a less sensitive place than a hospital) shows he realized he was just being an ass, and that whatever BS reasons they gave before were in fact BS.

 

Pence's wife had a different story to tell.  She said that Mike didn't know about Mayo Clinic's rule, although she acknowledges that his staff knew about the rule.

 

Liars have conflicting stories to tell.

 

The M.O. of everyone involved here is just to make stuff up and change it until it either goes away on its own because they jam the news cycle full of daily stupidities and scandals and nobody can keep up, or one of the variants they made up works better than the others ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

The man is in charge of a COVID task force, there must be signs all around Mayo about the rule (how do you think they get people to comply?), everyone around him is wearing masks, but oops, he didn't know. Not very convincing.

[Liberty]

So you tell me what criteria you used in picking three out of a lot of European countries to compare?

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scandinavia

[ERICOPOLY]

The fact that Pence wore a mask after that (in a less sensitive place than a hospital) shows he realized he was just being an ass, and that whatever BS reasons they gave before were in fact BS.

 

Pence's wife had a different story to tell.  She said that Mike didn't know about Mayo Clinic's rule, although she acknowledges that his staff knew about the rule.

 

Liars have conflicting stories to tell.

 

The M.O. of everyone involved here is just to make stuff up and change it until it either goes away on its own because they jam the news cycle full of daily stupidities and scandals and nobody can keep up, or one of the variants they made up works better than the others ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

The man is in charge of a COVID task force, there must be signs all around Mayo about the rule (how do you think they get people to comply?), everyone around him is wearing masks, but oops, he didn't know. Not very convincing.

 

Pence is just doing his job -- we're not talking about injecting people with disinfectants at present.

[jschembs]

 

 

The M.O. of everyone involved here is just to make stuff up and change it until it either goes away on its own because they jam the news cycle full of daily stupidities and scandals and nobody can keep up, or one of the variants they made up works better than the others ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

The man is in charge of a COVID task force, there must be signs all around Mayo about the rule (how do you think they get people to comply?), everyone around him is wearing masks, but oops, he didn't know. Not very convincing.

 

There's a car company executive who seems to employ a similar strategy.

[Liberty]

Pence is just doing his job -- we're not talking about injecting people with disinfectants at present.

 

The man is too bland to be a predictable distraction. But floating rumors about the US defaulting on its debt to China or Remdesivir or whatever...

[Liberty]

There's a car company executive who seems to employ a similar strategy.

 

I'd take Musk as president over Trump any day.