Coronavirus

[muscleman]

This chart below probably reflects what Dalal.Holdings and other bearish investors are feeling.

It makes wonder how AAII determines which investors to survey to sample for the data. Clearly Dave Portnoy is not included because he said "Stocks only go up"

[Dalal.Holdings]

This chart below probably reflects what Dalal.Holdings and other bearish investors are feeling.

It makes wonder how AAII determines which investors to survey to sample for the data. Clearly Dave Portnoy is not included because he said "Stocks only go up"

 

I thought you said let's keep the discussion in here about covid, yet you keep bringing up "the market"? Anyway, hate to break it to you but since you said there is going to be "a crash" with "high confidence" in the next 6 mo, you would fall right in the bearish camp...  :-X

 

These graphs reflect what Dalal.Holdings is feeling (avg over 1,000 Americans dead per day and going in the wrong direction...):

 

 

[Spekulatius]

This chart below probably reflects what Dalal.Holdings and other bearish investors are feeling.

It makes wonder how AAII determines which investors to survey to sample for the data. Clearly Dave Portnoy is not included because he said "Stocks only go up"

 

AAII probably surveys their own members and those have very little overlap with the crowd from Sherwood Forest.

[muscleman]

This chart below probably reflects what Dalal.Holdings and other bearish investors are feeling.

It makes wonder how AAII determines which investors to survey to sample for the data. Clearly Dave Portnoy is not included because he said "Stocks only go up"

 

I thought you said let's keep the discussion in here about covid, yet you keep bringing up "the market"? Anyway, hate to break it to you but since you said there is going to be "a crash" with "high confidence" in the next 6 mo, you would fall right in the bearish camp...  :-X

 

These graphs reflect what Dalal.Holdings is feeling (avg over 1,000 Americans dead per day and going in the wrong direction...):

 

 

 

errr...... You caught me......  ;D

I was reading the AAII chart this morning and your name jumped out right away and I felt I had no other threads to post it so I put it here.

I think a crash in 6 months is a possibility but the market looks bullish right now and I have to re-examine everything in 4-6 months to determine if the crash is still coming. Long term inflection points are hard to time.

[Investor20]

Commentary. Eliminating Vitamin D Deficiency During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Call to Action

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7377789/

 

In addition, a growing number of studies of patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection find that 25(OH)D levels correlate inversely with illness severity.

 

For example, among 212 COVID-19 patients at three South Asian hospitals, the risk of severe as opposed to mild illness was approximately eight times higher in those who were vitamin D deficient than in those who were vitamin D sufficient.

 

Among 780 COVID-19 patients in Indonesia, 25(OH)D levels below 20 ng/mL, as compared with levels of 30 ng/mL or greater, were predictive of a 10-fold increase in mortality risk after controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity status.

 

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

... ): ...

 

Thank you for today's neck exercise to the right!, Dalal.Holdings, [-And now a neck exercise to the left : [ ; - D]]

[Castanza]

Everyone in a strip club is probably already running a low grade fever anyways

 

Castanza,

 

You are a naughty boy! [ ; - D ][Actually, you remind me a bit about myself ...]

 

;D

[muscleman]

Dalal Holdings, I just have a friendly reminder. Buffet said investors looking backward is just like people driving their cars with their windshield covered and only use their rear view mirrors to drive. Have you considered the likelihood that you are doing just that? In your vehicle, the charts you posted are in your rear view mirror. But what's in your windshield? ;)

[Dalal.Holdings]

Dalal Holdings, I just have a friendly reminder. Buffet said investors looking backward is just like people driving their cars with their windshield covered and only use their rear view mirrors to drive. Have you considered the likelihood that you are doing just that? In your vehicle, the charts you posted are in your rear view mirror. But what's in your windshield? ;)

 

Muscle,

 

I’ll let you know when I can get one of those charts that looks into the future...oh, wait looking at a leading indicator like rise in U.S. cases and predicting that that’s where deaths (lagging indicator) are headed is exactly what I did in June...almost like “looking in the windshield”...

 

Anyway, you can’t help bringing up the market in covid thread. If in your windshield there is going to “be a crash” with “high conviction” in the next 6 mo—I ask, are you looking through your own windshield?

 

FYI I try to avoid making short term market predictions (6 mo is short), and certainly not high conviction ones, so your posts are quite peculiar to me, especially the fact that you predict a crash while I do not. I only lament over dead Americans and long term damage inflicted to the economy...

 

The latest bankruptcies:

Lord & Taylor

CPK

Tailored Brands

 

Do you think all of these would have occurred if covid had not resurged in June in the U.S.?

 

Are we Great Again or what?

[5xEBITDA]

 

The latest bankruptcies:

Lord & Taylor

CPK

Tailored Brands

 

Do you think all of these would have occurred if covid had not resurged in June in the U.S.?

 

 

Hi passing by distressed investor here without a dog in the fight. The answer is yes to all of the above three cases due to company specific issues that the initial March/April shutdown caused.

[muscleman]

Dalal Holdings, I just have a friendly reminder. Buffet said investors looking backward is just like people driving their cars with their windshield covered and only use their rear view mirrors to drive. Have you considered the likelihood that you are doing just that? In your vehicle, the charts you posted are in your rear view mirror. But what's in your windshield? ;)

 

Muscle,

 

I’ll let you know when I can get one of those charts that looks into the future...oh, wait looking at a leading indicator like rise in U.S. cases and predicting that that’s where deaths (lagging indicator) are headed is exactly what I did in June...almost like “looking in the windshield”...

 

Anyway, you can’t help bringing up the market in covid thread. If in your windshield there is going to “be a crash” with “high conviction” in the next 6 mo—I ask, are you looking through your own windshield?

 

FYI I try to avoid making short term market predictions (6 mo is short), and certainly not high conviction ones, so your posts are quite peculiar to me, especially the fact that you predict a crash while I do not. I only lament over dead Americans and long term damage inflicted to the economy...

 

The latest bankruptcies:

Lord & Taylor

CPK

Tailored Brands

 

Do you think all of these would have occurred if covid had not resurged in June in the U.S.?

 

Are we Great Again or what?

 

I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;))

This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen.

 

However, the new daily cases will be a long tail on the chart and that gives FED the political cover to QE, and on top of that, they are proposing to drop the policy to pre-emptively raise interest in prediction of inflation. I see an asset bubble brewing so I am very bullish right now, but I think all bubbles will end in the same way. They crash. But it does not make any sense to hold a bearish view right now at the initial stage of an asset bubble. You may argue that valuation looks insane but valuation never matters in an asset bubble. That's my windshield view of the market. Hope that helps.

[Gregmal]

 

The latest bankruptcies:

Lord & Taylor

CPK

Tailored Brands

 

Do you think all of these would have occurred if covid had not resurged in June in the U.S.?

 

 

Hi passing by distressed investor here without a dog in the fight. The answer is yes to all of the above three cases due to company specific issues that the initial March/April shutdown caused.

 

 

 

Definitely March/April government induced shutdown, but these businesses all had bankruptcy in their futures anyway, its been visible for years. Or at least the high % of such. Although I dont really think a lot of investors even understand the ramifications of many of these bankruptcies. For sure, COVID has almost become an excuse to try and squeeze lenders. But the majority of these companies are still going to exist and have similar, albeit reduced, footprints. Its essentially a necessary gimmick.

[KJP]

 

I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;))

This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen.

 

 

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already.  Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX.  So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August.  Do you think the NYC already has it?

[Dalal.Holdings]

Dalal Holdings, I just have a friendly reminder. Buffet said investors looking backward is just like people driving their cars with their windshield covered and only use their rear view mirrors to drive. Have you considered the likelihood that you are doing just that? In your vehicle, the charts you posted are in your rear view mirror. But what's in your windshield? ;)

 

Muscle,

 

I’ll let you know when I can get one of those charts that looks into the future...oh, wait looking at a leading indicator like rise in U.S. cases and predicting that that’s where deaths (lagging indicator) are headed is exactly what I did in June...almost like “looking in the windshield”...

 

Anyway, you can’t help bringing up the market in covid thread. If in your windshield there is going to “be a crash” with “high conviction” in the next 6 mo—I ask, are you looking through your own windshield?

 

FYI I try to avoid making short term market predictions (6 mo is short), and certainly not high conviction ones, so your posts are quite peculiar to me, especially the fact that you predict a crash while I do not. I only lament over dead Americans and long term damage inflicted to the economy...

 

The latest bankruptcies:

Lord & Taylor

CPK

Tailored Brands

 

Do you think all of these would have occurred if covid had not resurged in June in the U.S.?

 

Are we Great Again or what?

 

I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;))

This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen.

 

However, the new daily cases will be a long tail on the chart and that gives FED the political cover to QE, and on top of that, they are proposing to drop the policy to pre-emptively raise interest in prediction of inflation. I see an asset bubble brewing so I am very bullish right now, but I think all bubbles will end in the same way. They crash. But it does not make any sense to hold a bearish view right now at the initial stage of an asset bubble. You may argue that valuation looks insane but valuation never matters in an asset bubble. That's my windshield view of the market. Hope that helps.

 

I lol’d. I believe new daily cases have likely peaked, but herd immunity? Unlikely. Please share this high level understanding you have.

 

28 days till August is over...

 

And about the market—if you can time entry and exit in a bubble correctly, then good luck.

 

One difference between us is that I think probabilistically, not in absolutes like you seem to...

[muscleman]

 

I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;))

This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen.

 

 

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already.  Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX.  So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August.  Do you think the NYC already has it?

 

I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC.

The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower.

 

I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November.

 

And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that.

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;))

This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen.

 

 

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already.  Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX.  So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August.  Do you think the NYC already has it?

 

I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC.

The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower.

 

I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November.

 

And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that.

 

This is the info we needed from you—I believe you are inferring from the nature article on T cell reaction in unexposed patients? While certainly possible, I would not attach a high level of certainty to those results, certainly not extrapolating to the population level as you seem to do (N = 37)

 

Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID.

 

You have high certainty, but it’s a big leap...

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

[KJP]

 

I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;))

This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen.

 

 

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already.  Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX.  So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August.  Do you think the NYC already has it?

 

I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC.

The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower.

 

I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November.

 

And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that.

 

This is the info we needed from you—I believe you are inferring from the nature article on T cell reaction in unexposed patients? While certainly possible, I would not attach a high level of certainty to those results, certainly not extrapolating to the population level as you seem to do (N = 37)

 

Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID.

 

You have high certainty, but it’s a big leap...

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

 

There may be a few more studies on pre-existing T-cell reactivity to SARS-COV-2.  See papers discussed here:  https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0389-z?s=09

[John Hjorth]

The latest WHO Sit Report looks absolutely terrible.

[muscleman]

Dalal Holdings. Let's just agree to disagree, ok? We will revisit in the end of August, and if the daily new cases is not sharply lower, I'll apologize in this thread ok?  :)

I am not gaining anything from this discussion here. From the very beginning in late January, I have been sharing valuable COVID info. I wanted to help this community.

People can either believe or disbelieve me. That's their own choice.

 

[Guest cherzeca]

re T cells, it is my own view that elevated T cell counts, as per rheumatoid and other arthritis, may actually help defend against covid (forgetting about past cold virus exposure).  many RA patients take biologics that inhibit the T cell waterfall reaction, but in my case, even immunosuppression resulted in an easy defeat against covid.  my point is that there is a relationship between inflammation and covid that no one, especially Fauci, seems to understand.

[Dalal.Holdings]

Dalal Holdings. Let's just agree to disagree, ok? We will revisit in the end of August, and if the daily new cases is not sharply lower, I'll apologize in this thread ok?  :)

I am not gaining anything from this discussion here. From the very beginning in late January, I have been sharing valuable COVID info. I wanted to help this community.

People can either believe or disbelieve me. That's their own choice.

 

For the record, I am not saying that what you are saying is definitely not going to come to pass--I believe there is a chance you are right and the probability is not zero, but just not that high and with wide confidence interval (on if we can in fact extrapolate from small studies to population and in fact there is cross immunity from other coronaviruses and if we have hit the 60-80% infected/immune nationwide). What I am questioning is the level of confidence/conviction you have for a complex, nonlinear multi-ordered process (immune system dynamics, population dynamics, etc etc). In other words, I think you are discounting the probability that you are wrong.

 

The precautionary principle to me means it is better to be conservative when facing uncertainty instead of proceeding with "high conviction" about anything. In other words, having a large margin of safety when buying a stock...or wearing a seatbelt even if it's just a short neighborhood drive...or not being fully invested even if you are sure the bubble has a few more months/weeks to go...

 

I hope the scenario of early herd immunity does pan out. Though I am afraid even if it does, the economic damage is done for the U.S. and we have a huge number of people who have suffered (needlessly IMO)...

[muscleman]

Dalal Holdings. Let's just agree to disagree, ok? We will revisit in the end of August, and if the daily new cases is not sharply lower, I'll apologize in this thread ok?  :)

I am not gaining anything from this discussion here. From the very beginning in late January, I have been sharing valuable COVID info. I wanted to help this community.

People can either believe or disbelieve me. That's their own choice.

 

For the record, I am not saying that what you are saying is definitely not going to come to pass--I believe there is a chance you are right and the probability is not zero, but just not that high and with wide confidence interval (on if we can in fact extrapolate from small studies to population and in fact there is cross immunity from other coronaviruses and if we have hit the 60-80% infected/immune nationwide). What I am questioning is the level of confidence/conviction you have for a complex, nonlinear multi-ordered process (immune system dynamics, population dynamics, etc etc). In other words, I think you are discounting the probability that you are wrong.

 

The precautionary principle to me means it is better to be conservative when facing uncertainty instead of proceeding with "high conviction" about anything. In other words, having a large margin of safety when buying a stock...or wearing a seatbelt even if it's just a short neighborhood drive...or not being fully invested even if you are sure the bubble has a few more months/weeks to go...

 

I hope the scenario of early herd immunity does pan out. Though I am afraid even if it does, the economic damage is done for the U.S. and we have a huge number of people who have suffered (needlessly IMO)...

 

We just have different approaches then. I don't have high conviction all the time, but I do have it now.

"it is better to be conservative when facing uncertainty". If you ever studied Pabrai's interviews, he said investors need to distinguish uncertainty vs risk. They are different things, but they both make investors uncomfortable.

I guess this is why I originally emphasized to focus on COVID in this thread because discussing facts around COVID is already difficult, whose facts are widely politicized. Not to mention the market implication of COVID.

I am going to stop talking about the market now in this thread.

[Spekulatius]

^ I my opinion, talking about the market impact of COVID-19 is fair game. After all, this is the reason this thread got traction initially. No need to excuse either if you are wrong, we can all learn from predictions and particularly the reasoning behind it.

[DocSnowball]

 

I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;))

This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen.

 

 

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already.  Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX.  So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August.  Do you think the NYC already has it?

 

I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC.

The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower.

 

I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November.

 

And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that.

 

Again, I will push back on your thesis that herd immunity is developing muscleman. The NY serosurveys were of people out and about and willing to get serosurvey testing done, not a random sample IMHO. Secondly, if pre-existing immunity were to play a large role, those who have lived longer, or been more exposed like those in nursing homes or healthcare work, would do better. But those are the populations heavily impacted in this first wave. Also, simply having T cell reactivity does not prove anything; again the elderly are dying in larger numbers and they would be the most likely to have pre-existing cross reactive immunity. On the contrary, young children who have never been exposed are doing relatively well. I acknowledge you have repeated your conviction, but the purpose of being on a message board at least for me is to be open to contrary views and clarify my thinking.

 

There is an important distinction between cases going down due to control measures of social distancing (which need to be maintained until herd immunity develops) and true herd immunity (where life and business can resume as usual). Beyond the theoretical disconfirmation, your thesis has also not played out in any country so far. Places that reopen without proper social distancing are having recurrence of infections rather than displaying herd immunity.

 

Also, since you have been following this in China, can you offer any reasoning why the virus did not spread as much within China outside Hubei province as in the rest of the world? I've been curious about that. Is it just fake data or is there more? How has their social distancing evolved now?

[Dalal.Holdings]

 

I don't think you have a solid understanding of the virus. Probably no one has better understanding about it than me, at least in this forum. (Uh Oh, i don't want to sound like Trump..... ;))

This second wave will have far smaller death rate than the first one, and by the end of August, the US will have herd immunity and new daily cases will drop sharply and these Democratic governors will face severe pressure to reopen.

 

 

If by "death rate" you mean [confirmed cases]/deaths, you certainly seem to be right based on the data we have already.  Cases also appear to be inflecting down in FL, AZ and TX.  So, I'm very curious what exactly you mean by "herd immunity" and why you think we'll have it by the end of the August.  Do you think the NYC already has it?

 

I already explained in prior posts. NYC already had 24% people antibody positive in early April, so probably 40% now. Also research shows likelihood of 40-60% of entire global population who have never been exposed to COVID but their T cell can already fight COVID. So we are easily at 80% immunity in NYC.

The proof is the 10k daily cases in March but no second spike in July. Now Texas and FL, with similar population size, have experienced what NY experienced in March, so in four weeks, the new daily cases should be sharply lower.

 

I don't want to keep explaining things over and over. People who believe it will find evidence that confirms their view, and people who disbelieve it will also find evidence that confirms their view. My high conviction prediction is that by the end of August, the COVID situation is dramatically better. Then the Democrats will face tremendous pressure to reopen. Then Trump wins again in November.

 

And to Dalal holdings, my prediction of the crash depends on many things and 6 month time line is just a tentative one. I have to revisit it later. I have high conviction that we are in the early stage of an asset bubble and I have high conviction that this bubble will burst. I have low conviction for the 6 month timeline. But as it approaches, I'll see it more clearly at that time. It is simply not a good idea to put your words into my month and say, yeah you agree with me and that the market will crash in 30 days and COVID will be gone in 30 days. I never said that.

 

Again, I will push back on your thesis that herd immunity is developing muscleman. The NY serosurveys were of people out and about and willing to get serosurvey testing done, not a random sample IMHO. Secondly, if pre-existing immunity were to play a large role, those who have lived longer, or been more exposed like those in nursing homes or healthcare work, would do better. But those are the populations heavily impacted in this first wave. Also, simply having T cell reactivity does not prove anything; again the elderly are dying in larger numbers and they would be the most likely to have pre-existing cross reactive immunity. On the contrary, young children who have never been exposed are doing relatively well. I acknowledge you have repeated your conviction, but the purpose of being on a message board at least for me is to be open to contrary views and clarify my thinking.

 

There is an important distinction between cases going down due to control measures of social distancing (which need to be maintained until herd immunity develops) and true herd immunity (where life and business can resume as usual). Beyond the theoretical disconfirmation, your thesis has also not played out in any country so far. Places that reopen without proper social distancing are having recurrence of infections rather than displaying herd immunity.

 

Also, since you have been following this in China, can you offer any reasoning why the virus did not spread as much within China outside Hubei province as in the rest of the world? I've been curious about that. Is it just fake data or is there more? How has their social distancing evolved now?

 

Pretty much why precaution is useful when facing so many unknowns. That’s why I question the level of conviction of muscleman—too much uncertainty to be so confident. The downside if you pursue this strategy and you are wrong is that many more people die, the pandemic is prolonged, and the economy suffers even more. And that’s my critique with the U.S. leadership of this...overconfidence in the face of uncertainty leading to larger in magnitude and longer duration of pandemic in the U.S...

 

Even some of these nature articles state that T cell immunity may not be beneficial and it’s too soon to draw conclusions...

 

Another way to look at it—if you were considering investing in a company with questionable management with questionable, highly competitive industry that is in turnaround mode, would you demand a large margin of safety or small?