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Posted

“I think human society will accept a reduced human life expectancy.“

 

Sam, the problem is we still do not understand the virus very well. If you let the genie out of the bottle the death toll may spike much higher than expected. And at that point you have made the wrong decision but you are screwed.

 

Yes, there’s forces pulling and pushing here. As seen on this board and in the news.

 

Pull: we humans won’t accept overloaded ICUs. And a 4-5% death rate.

 

Push: But equally unlikely we will accept our livelihoods gone for over a year.

 

Let’s see how it plays out.

 

As an investor I have counted on the second “push” to construct a downside fundamental risk scenario as I buy stocks over the last month. Of course, this doesn’t restrict the market from doing anything in the interim, or I could simply be wrong.

Posted

We are flying blind.

 

That is the life. Existence is suffering. You have to embrace the chaos and move forward. And we will.

 

There’s degrees of flying blind. And there’s flying reckless.

 

https://twitter.com/sam_baker/status/1259801828591534080?s=21

 

“ S. Korea had to re-clamp down because it got 34 new cases in one day. We have 25,000 per day and all we’re talking about is opening up. There’s even a risk of an outbreak inside the White House.

 

We know what we’re on for.”

Posted

We are flying blind.

 

That is the life. Existence is suffering. You have to embrace the chaos and move forward. And we will.

 

There’s degrees of flying blind. And there’s flying reckless.

 

https://twitter.com/sam_baker/status/1259801828591534080?s=21

 

“ S. Korea had to re-clamp down because it got 34 new cases in one day. We have 25,000 per day and all we’re talking about is opening up. There’s even a risk of an outbreak inside the White House.

 

We know what we’re on for.”

 

I agree with this but imagine what would happen if the US took measures like S. Korea (clamping down after 34 new cases). There would be a civil war.

 

It's not always the government's fault -- it's on individuals as well.

Posted

Seems like we need to close down the White House, quarantine the inhabitants and deep clean it.

 

Don't forget Congress! ;)

Posted

Seems like we need to close down the White House, quarantine the inhabitants and deep clean it.

 

Nah, we should reopen it! And no testing, tests are overrated! Make the White House Open Again!

Posted

Seems like we need to close down the White House, quarantine the inhabitants and deep clean it.

 

That needed to happen 3 years ago.

Posted

Seems like we need to close down the White House, quarantine the inhabitants and deep clean it.

 

That needed to happen 3 years ago.

 

Probably better for it to have happened around 11 years ago.

Posted

The US is like a big petri dish for the virus. There will be lots of learnings...

 

Colorado restaurant illegally reopens with no social distancing and hundreds of customers

- https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/11/colorado-restaurant-illegal-reopening/

 

“I expected it to be busy. I never expected this,” she told Colorado Community Media. “I’m so happy so many people came out to support the Constitution and stand up for what is right. We did our time. We did our two weeks. We did more than two weeks … and we were failing. We had to do something.

 

...A sign on the door reportedly read: “ATTENTION: Our freedom doesn’t end where your fear begins. … If you are afraid to be within 6 feet of another person, do not enter this business!”

 

The Yelp review page for C & C Coffee and Kitchen... Arellano’s supporters tried to defend her with compliments, including one woman who said “the coffee is to die for.”

Posted

Seems like we need to close down the White House, quarantine the inhabitants and deep clean it.

 

Nah, we should reopen it! And no testing, tests are overrated! Make the White House Open Again!

 

Drain it.

Posted

Seems like we need to close down the White House, quarantine the inhabitants and deep clean it.

 

Nah, we should reopen it! And no testing, tests are overrated! Make the White House Open Again!

 

I asked several times in this thread.  Go to worldometer and show that there is a relationship between tests/million and deaths/million.

 

Japan had 1,694 tests/million with 5 deaths/million

 

Germany 32,829 tests/million with 91 deaths/million

 

US 29,182 tests/million with 246 deaths/million

 

UK 28,309 tests/million with 472 deaths/million

 

US, UK and Germany have similar level of testing with five fold wide range of deaths/million.

 

Japan very low testing with very low deaths/million.

Posted

If anyone thinks mass testing would help resolve this pandemic, think about this...

 

In South Korea, if you test positive, you are forced to be admitted to the hospital until you test negative -- which can take over a month in some cases. And if you break the quarantine orders, you will get fined or go to jail.

 

So what would some people do? Just avoid getting tested... Especially if your symptoms are mild or non-existent (which seems to be the majority of the cases), why would you bother? Would you really want to voluntarily get locked up in a hospital and place yourself under full surveillance for a number of days/weeks?

 

Then your identity would be revealed. In South Korea interestingly, there have been outbreaks in a cult church and a gay club... People wouldn't want to get tested and risk revealing themselves. They get bullied and stigmatized both online/offline... so why bother?

 

Sure, testing would help, but it won't resolve the issue with this kind of contagious (and not so lethal) virus.

 

That is... unless you force-test everyone like an authoritarian government... but that won't fly here in North America.

 

Posted

If anyone thinks mass testing would help resolve this pandemic, think about this...

 

In South Korea, if you test positive, you are forced to be admitted to the hospital until you test negative -- which can take over a month in some cases. And if you break the quarantine orders, you will get fined or go to jail.

 

So what would some people do? Just avoid getting tested... Especially if your symptoms are mild or non-existent (which seems to be the majority of the cases), why would you bother? Would you really want to voluntarily get locked up in a hospital and place yourself under full surveillance for a number of days/weeks?

 

Then your identity would be revealed. In South Korea interestingly, there have been outbreaks in a cult church and a gay club... People wouldn't want to get tested and risk revealing themselves. They get bullied and stigmatized both online/offline... so why bother?

 

Sure, testing would help, but it won't resolve the issue with this kind of contagious (and not so lethal) virus.

 

That is... unless you force-test everyone like an authoritarian government... but that won't fly here in North America.

 

And I realize that the situation is different here, where people just get sent home and are asked to self-quarantine themselves when you test positive.

 

So when you don't receive any treatment and are just sent home -- what incentivizes people from getting tested? (unless you live with someone who is in the vulnerable group)

Posted

If anyone thinks mass testing would help resolve this pandemic, think about this...

 

In South Korea, if you test positive, you are forced to be admitted to the hospital until you test negative -- which can take over a month in some cases. And if you break the quarantine orders, you will get fined or go to jail.

 

So what would some people do? Just avoid getting tested... Especially if your symptoms are mild or non-existent (which seems to be the majority of the cases), why would you bother? Would you really want to voluntarily get locked up in a hospital and place yourself under full surveillance for a number of days/weeks?

 

Then your identity would be revealed. In South Korea interestingly, there have been outbreaks in a cult church and a gay club... People wouldn't want to get tested and risk revealing themselves. They get bullied and stigmatized both online/offline... so why bother?

 

Sure, testing would help, but it won't resolve the issue with this kind of contagious (and not so lethal) virus.

 

That is... unless you force-test everyone like an authoritarian government... but that won't fly here in North America.

Other countries have tested more people per capita than S Korea, without the draconian measures.

 

I fail to see how less information is more useful.

Posted

If anyone thinks mass testing would help resolve this pandemic, think about this...

 

In South Korea, if you test positive, you are forced to be admitted to the hospital until you test negative -- which can take over a month in some cases. And if you break the quarantine orders, you will get fined or go to jail.

 

So what would some people do? Just avoid getting tested... Especially if your symptoms are mild or non-existent (which seems to be the majority of the cases), why would you bother? Would you really want to voluntarily get locked up in a hospital and place yourself under full surveillance for a number of days/weeks?

 

Then your identity would be revealed. In South Korea interestingly, there have been outbreaks in a cult church and a gay club... People wouldn't want to get tested and risk revealing themselves. They get bullied and stigmatized both online/offline... so why bother?

 

Sure, testing would help, but it won't resolve the issue with this kind of contagious (and not so lethal) virus.

 

That is... unless you force-test everyone like an authoritarian government... but that won't fly here in North America.

Other countries have tested more people per capita than S Korea, without the draconian measures.

 

I fail to see how less information is more useful.

 

Not saying it isn't useful... but pointing out the shortcoming.

Posted

I think at this point the only option is to reopen, and quickly.  The cost and this outcome were created when Trump and his circle of enablers were chosen.  It's now quite impossible to reverse this cost by maintaining the shutdown, it will just increase. 

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