Cigarbutt Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 ^Assessing the size of the invisible part of the iceberg is important. The California serology studies are interesting and need to be taken into account. However, if the validity of results is reduced by the same methodological flaws (selection bias, specificity bias underestimation {a specificity of 98% vs 99% can have a major effect on results} and extrapolation risk), results may be precise (values similar and pointing in the same direction) but also precisely wrong (not accurate). I think Mr. Maboussin discusses this noise-versus-signal issue for investments. See below for the tests used (if i understood correctly) and look at specificity. There have been issues with tests rapidly going to the markets in this environment. https://imgcdn.mckesson.com/CumulusWeb/Click_and_learn/Premier_Biotech_COVID19_Package_Insert.pdf An interesting aspect and a way to build power of knowledge for the future would indeed be to use a similar (to California studies) methodology to highly affected areas. Applying the same approach to the NYC area or NY state, one would expect (by + or - similar extrapolation) about a 50% positive rate of seroconversion in the general population. This would also help to put a price tag on the strategy based on reaching natural immunity. It is a well known fact that Scandinavian countries have developed expertise for long-term longitudinal studies. One of the reasons (beside talent and experience) is that the populations are considered to be relatively captive. It seems that the US just decided to increase the degree of captivity in a protectionist way. Slippery slope.
Jurgis Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Oh boy: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=20 Poor Melania. It was nice to know her.
rb Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Oh boy: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=20 Trump is getting killed on how he has managed the virus and it is getting worse. So what does he do? He manufactures a new ‘issue’ that the news media will shift their focus to. The messier the better. Smart, smart man! However, this is not good for the US. Among other things, immigration brings in needed skills. It also provides a nice boost to GDP as all those immigrants provide a nice economic boost (need to eat and sleep somewhere). Yes this is not good. I am very worried about where this is going. Is anybody thinking about what happens with vegetables from California, Georgia and all these places? Or we're all just gonna have to shift to eating corn?
Jurgis Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Oh boy: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=20 Trump is getting killed on how he has managed the virus and it is getting worse. So what does he do? He manufactures a new ‘issue’ that the news media will shift their focus to. The messier the better. Smart, smart man! However, this is not good for the US. Among other things, immigration brings in needed skills. It also provides a nice boost to GDP as all those immigrants provide a nice economic boost (need to eat and sleep somewhere). Yes this is not good. I am very worried about where this is going. Is anybody thinking about what happens with vegetables from California, Georgia and all these places? Or we're all just gonna have to shift to eating corn? I am sure the great value investors from CoBF will finally get jobs picking strawberries. Your all hard work is going to be sincerely appreciated.
Liberty Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/opinions/trump-institutions-autocrats-kasparov/index.html Gary Kasparov op-ed.
LongHaul Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/opinions/trump-institutions-autocrats-kasparov/index.html Gary Kasparov op-ed. Great article. No matter your politics in the US - the last thing we all want is a dictator who slowly or quickly strips away our freedom. All Hail Dictator Trump also known as Mr. Deficit.
DooDiligence Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/opinions/trump-institutions-autocrats-kasparov/index.html Gary Kasparov op-ed. Great article. No matter your politics in the US - the last thing we all want is a dictator who slowly or quickly strips away our freedom. All Hail Dictator Trump also known as Mr. Deficit. That's Comrade Trump, AKA Mr. Bankruptcy. Anyone want to guess as to when he'll throw out the possibility of defaulting / renegotiating US debt (again)?
Liberty Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Central quarantine away from family is more of a unifying feature of effective Asian responses to the coronavirus than widespread testing (Taiwan = very little testing relatively speaking). For what it’s worth, I think central quarantine of positive cases (a good use for hotels!) is more obviously useful for limiting spread than masks (which I also support). Lots of spread happens at home. Also: Doctors should be aware most serology tests haven't been reviewed by FDA. Quality is highly variable, with some or perhaps many giving uncertain results. False positive rates may be inappropriately high. Patients and doctors shouldn't rely on unproven tests for clinical decisions Depending on specificity of serology test being used, false positive rates can range from 25-50%; meaning tests that return positive result saying you have antibodies to covid may be wrong as much as half the time. Many tests have 95% specificity which leaves false positives high
ERICOPOLY Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 They are protesting the guidelines that Trump himself put into place and later extended to April 30th.
ERICOPOLY Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Trump sees partisan scheme in calls for ramped up virus testing To hear Trump tell it, the focus on coronavirus testing is a partisan scheme to "get him." That's demonstrably ridiculous. https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-sees-partisan-scheme-calls-ramped-virus-testing-n1188751 Trump believes criticisms of him can't be sincere, so they must be part of a plot. He peddled a related line at yesterday's press briefing: "Remember it was all ventilators and the reason it was all ventilators, 'They said there's no way he'll ever be able to catch this one.' And not only did we catch it, we are now the king of ventilators all over the world. We can send them anywhere; we have thousands being made a week and they are very high quality. And that wasn't playing well, so then they said, Testing, testing, oh we'll get him on testing.'" There is no partisan scheme. As CNN's Daniel Dale explained, "The Republican governors of Ohio, Nebraska, Maryland and Massachusetts, Republican Senate health committee Chairman Sen. Lamar Alexander and other Republicans have all spoken in the last week about challenges obtaining testing materials or the need for more testing.... This is about more than Trump's unfortunate paranoia. If the president genuinely believes calls for ramped up testing are little more than a plot to "get him," he may be less likely to take the policy prescription seriously. For the public's sake, Trump needs to understand that this is not a plot; it's a real piece of the puzzle he's eager to solve.
Viking Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 For those that feel strongly we should track and trace how would you go about that? I'm not arguing against it but the man power needed, the time for testing, and the tracking really would border on unfathomable. I think what you are really asking is this: is it important. And if so how important? The US decided it was important to go to the moon. With leadership, planning, experts, resources, money and effort they made it happen. Yes, there were set backs; learn, iterate and keep going. The virus is killing the global economy (not just the US). And it is costing lives. I think one can make the case that this is the biggest economic/health issue to hit the globe since the great depression. So i think we can all agree that dealing with the ‘virus’ is massively important. So it then follows that governments would do everything in their power to deal with it. One would expect the government to mobilize all necessary resources no different than when it fought WW1, WW2 or when it decided to go to the moon. And the leadership HAS to come at the national level. It also needs massive international coordination. Imaging fighting WW1 or WW2 without international coordination? Or how about if the US presidents at the time said ‘we are going to fight a world war and the states individually can manage the the war effort as they chose as per the loose guidelines as set forth by the Federal government.’ And then the President then said that all people who do not support the war should let their governors know and actively demonstrate in their state. And the states were also short on ammunition; production of which was controlled by the government who said when they asked for more ‘you have enough...’ Some countries have decided that dealing with the virus is of the utmost importance: Taiwan and South Korea. It has taken great political leadership, a national approach, has required individuals to give up some personal freedoms. Most importantly it required a vision, planning, trust in science, excellent communication, resource mobilization (people and medical), cooperation, strong execution. Is it important? If so, how important?
cobafdek Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 ^Assessing the size of the invisible part of the iceberg is important. The California serology studies are interesting and need to be taken into account. However, if the validity of results is reduced by the same methodological flaws (selection bias, specificity bias underestimation {a specificity of 98% vs 99% can have a major effect on results} and extrapolation risk), results may be precise (values similar and pointing in the same direction) but also precisely wrong (not accurate). I think Mr. Maboussin discusses this noise-versus-signal issue for investments. See below for the tests used (if i understood correctly) and look at specificity. There have been issues with tests rapidly going to the markets in this environment. https://imgcdn.mckesson.com/CumulusWeb/Click_and_learn/Premier_Biotech_COVID19_Package_Insert.pdf The manufacturers of that test report specificities of 99.2% for the IgM and 99.5% for the IgG, which sound excellent. But these are based on validating their tests by "Clinical Diagnosis/Confirmed," which presumably means symptomatic cases confirmed with a +RT-PCR. So that's the selection bias. It might be useful in a hospital setting. But when survey testing a larger and different population (asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic), they will get more false positives, which means lower specificity. It's interesting their package insert admits this much at the very end: "Some cross reactivity was observed with samples positive for SARS-CoV antibody and Rheumatoid Factor. It is possible to cross-react with samples positive for MERS-CoV antibody. Positive results may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E." But they present no data on how large this cross-reactivity is. If large, specificity might be much lower. So it's probably not useful for community-wide testing for contact tracing, where a positive test will need to be confirmed by the RT-PCR.* I fear a testing/tracking program would fail miserably. Not because its not the right thing to do or best thing to do but I feel it would border on downright impossible in a country like the US. *One way it may be possible: Abbott's ID NOW COVID-19 test (a PCR test), according to my hospital which is about to deploy it (and according to Abbott - if they can be believed) has a very low false positive rate. It could therefore be used to confirm a positive serological test that has an unacceptably large false positivity. Abbott's rapid test, however, would have to be more widely available outside the hospital setting. The McKesson test could still be useful for epidemiological purposes. Epidemiological models could use a range of false positive numbers to adjust their past models in order get better estimates of CFR and IFR. I'm still waiting for Mt. Sinai's serological (ELISA) test (brought up in this thread last month https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037713v2). I think they test for antibodies to different Covid-19 proteins. They claim no cross-reactivity to other non-Covid19 coronaviruses. I give the S. Koreans a lot credit if this was the true reason it worked. God damn. I bet the South Korean tests will be revealed also to have poor performance characteristics. So that a large factor for the relative success in that population was psychological. When they see a lot a weird "scientific" testing being done, combined with all that highly publicized spraying of the sidewalks/streets/buildings with whatever homeopathic fluid by men in hazmat suits, it's great propaganda to enforce quarantining.
Liberty Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 They are protesting the guidelines that Trump himself put into place and later extended to April 30th. He doesn't care about coherence, just about whatever could advantage him. By politicizing this, he's creating the conditions to blame others, whatever happens. As Kasparov wrote here: It also appears Trump is using crucial medical supplies and federal small business aid for political purposes. He is inciting a culture war that sounds almost like a civil war with unhinged tweets about "liberating" states under lockdown -- only ones with Democratic governors, of course. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/opinions/trump-institutions-autocrats-kasparov/index.html
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 He doesn't care about coherence, just about whatever could advantage him. By politicizing this, he's creating the conditions to blame others, whatever happens. As Kasparov wrote here: It also appears Trump is using crucial medical supplies and federal small business aid for political purposes. He is inciting a culture war that sounds almost like a civil war with unhinged tweets about "liberating" states under lockdown -- only ones with Democratic governors, of course. https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/20/opinions/trump-institutions-autocrats-kasparov/index.html Pretty much the exact opposite of what you’d want from a President in a crisis like this. SMH.
Viking Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 The cracks are starting to appear around the globe... US housing was the core issue in 2008. What will be the financial cause of the 2020 recession? Yes, the virus is the core issue. Perhaps a decade of negative interest rates has built up instabilities (like global banks reaching for yield) that will make the coming global recession much worse. BOJ warns of potential financial system risks triggered by pandemic - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-warns-potential-financial-system-121504660.html TOKYO (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic, if prolonged, could trigger a negative feedback loop in which a worsening economy threatens to destabilise Japan's financial system, the Bank of Japan warned on Tuesday. Japanese financial institutions have increased lending to middle-risk borrowers, or companies with higher credit risk, in search of higher yields amid years of ultra-low interest rates, the BOJ said in a semi-annual report on the financial system. They have also increased high-risk overseas lending, such as those to energy firms hit by plunging oil prices, making their balance sheets vulnerable to global market volatility, it said. Such exposure to various risks is among factors the BOJ must take into account in scrutinising Japan's banking sector, particularly because some of the loans could turn sour as the pandemic hurts the economy, the report said. "Japan's financial system is under strong stress but remains sound as a whole, with financial institutions providing necessary funds to support economic activity," the BOJ said. "If the economy suffers a prolonged and deep slump, however, that could trigger a full-fledged, banking-sector correction," it said.
rb Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 So what are they saying? That the Japanese banks are the bag holders for US shale?
Liberty Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Mass confusion, zero coordination! Maryland Buys 500,000 Test Kits From South Korea, Drawing Criticism From Trump Trump was asked during his briefing on Monday about Hogan securing the tests, for which Maryland paid $9 million. The president suggested it was an unwise investment. "The governor of Maryland could've called [Vice President] Mike Pence, could've saved a lot of money," Trump said. "If there were an easier way, we certainly would have taken it," Hogan said Tuesday in an interview on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "The president said the governors are on their own and they should focus on getting their own tests, and that's exactly what we did." https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/21/839919655/maryland-gets-500-000-test-kits-from-south-korea-drawing-criticism-from-trump
Jurgis Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Mass confusion, zero coordination! Maryland Buys 500,000 Test Kits From South Korea, Drawing Criticism From Trump Trump was asked during his briefing on Monday about Hogan securing the tests, for which Maryland paid $9 million. The president suggested it was an unwise investment. "The governor of Maryland could've called [Vice President] Mike Pence, could've saved a lot of money," Trump said. "If there were an easier way, we certainly would have taken it," Hogan said Tuesday in an interview on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "The president said the governors are on their own and they should focus on getting their own tests, and that's exactly what we did." https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/21/839919655/maryland-gets-500-000-test-kits-from-south-korea-drawing-criticism-from-trump Mike Pence would have done 500,000 tests himself! Single handedly! For men only, of course.
LongHaul Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 The cracks are starting to appear around the globe... US housing was the core issue in 2008. What will be the financial cause of the 2020 recession? Yes, the virus is the core issue. Perhaps a decade of negative interest rates has built up instabilities (like global banks reaching for yield) that will make the coming global recession much worse. BOJ warns of potential financial system risks triggered by pandemic - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-warns-potential-financial-system-121504660.html TOKYO (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic, if prolonged, could trigger a negative feedback loop in which a worsening economy threatens to destabilise Japan's financial system, the Bank of Japan warned on Tuesday. Japanese financial institutions have increased lending to middle-risk borrowers, or companies with higher credit risk, in search of higher yields amid years of ultra-low interest rates, the BOJ said in a semi-annual report on the financial system. They have also increased high-risk overseas lending, such as those to energy firms hit by plunging oil prices, making their balance sheets vulnerable to global market volatility, it said. Such exposure to various risks is among factors the BOJ must take into account in scrutinising Japan's banking sector, particularly because some of the loans could turn sour as the pandemic hurts the economy, the report said. "Japan's financial system is under strong stress but remains sound as a whole, with financial institutions providing necessary funds to support economic activity," the BOJ said. "If the economy suffers a prolonged and deep slump, however, that could trigger a full-fledged, banking-sector correction," it said. This is a good question - here is what I see for 2nd and 3rd order effects. 1. Housing bubbles and real estate bubbles around the world. China, Canada, Aussie, and many more. Those are likely to go down a lot with serious hits all around. 2. Banks tightening with big losses - I would not be surprised if many banks went under from real estate collapsing or country debt problems down the line. With 10-20x leverage you don't need much to go under. Who knows what is in their portfolios. I don't think the CEO's even know. 3. Consumers pulling back on all. 4. Businesses generally cutting spending especially cyclical ones. 5. Because the democracies have turned into a bunch of drunken sailors trying to bail everyone out of any kind of misfortune - I expect within the next few years many democracies getting into trouble. Then all hell breaks loose if the big economies actually have to default, have high inflation and much higher interest rates, etc. Why would I loan to these countries when they have no discipline to let individuals and corporations cut way back or go bankrupt? Country defaults could take years although I read that already at least 2 3rd world countries have defaulted. Where are some safe assets that one can put with a lot of liquidity? Norweigan bonds?
Spekulatius Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Where are some safe assets that one can put with a lot of liquidity? Norweigan bonds? You better hedge the currency though . Some of the oily currencies like NOK, MXN or the Ruble lost ~20% against the USD and trade with the volatility of equity
LongHaul Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 BTW - math on cost per life is very high for the US government. My assumptions (just guesses) Number of people would have died from Covid if just kept everything open: 1 million Incremental cost to economy: $ 2 trillion Cost per life: $2 million I am not sure if the average age but it may be ~76-80 It is interesting because I am guessing the market value in a court settlement would be much less.
Spekulatius Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 BTW - math on cost per life is very high for the US government. My assumptions (just guesses) Number of people would have died from Covid if just kept everything open: 1 million Incremental cost to economy: $ 2 trillion Cost per life: $2 million I am not sure if the average age but it may be ~76-80 It is interesting because I am guessing the market value in a court settlement would be much less. If a million people die (regardless of age) the economy would be trash anyways. Probably worse than it is right now (if that’s possible).
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/21/840341224/nih-panel-recommends-against-drug-combination-trump-has-promoted-for-covid-19 A panel of experts convened by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases recommends against doctors using a combination of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin for the treatment of COVID-19 patients because of potential toxicities. But did they consider all the anecdotes and "common sense"?
tng Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 BTW - math on cost per life is very high for the US government. My assumptions (just guesses) Number of people would have died from Covid if just kept everything open: 1 million Incremental cost to economy: $ 2 trillion Cost per life: $2 million I am not sure if the average age but it may be ~76-80 It is interesting because I am guessing the market value in a court settlement would be much less. Also, the question is whether that $2 trillion is a one time cost or if it is a $2 trillion per month cost, because so far there is no obvious way to reopen without most people eventually getting the virus anyways. Are we going to pay $2 trillion a month until there is a vaccine?
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