Liberty Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3ba5j/trump-is-scapegoating-the-who-but-failed-to-confirm-a-us-representative-for-3-years WASHINGTON — President Trump has sought to pin the blame for his administration’s disastrous response to the novel coronavirus on the World Health Organization, painting it as too corrupt and scared of China to label the novel coronavirus a pandemic until far too late. But the Trump administration and Senate Republicans never bothered to confirm a permanent representative for the United States’ seat on the WHO’s executive board, a sign of how little attention the administration paid to the global health organization until recent weeks. Experts say that left the U.S. without a well-established senior voice in the U.N.’s global health body, surrendering influence to China as it worked to cover up the extent of the growing COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, and weakened America’s influence on the body during critical early-February meetings when the response to the emerging crisis was debated. Dr. Nils Daulaire, who had the job for one three-year term under President Obama, said the Trump administration’s failure to have a high-level, Senate-confirmed appointee to the board handed China exactly the kind of leverage that Trump has since griped about — and potentially undercut international response to the coronavirus pandemic.
KCLarkin Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 Anyone else think it is insane that oil is down more than 100% in one day and the S&P 500 is basically unchanged? Well, I guess the fact that oil is down 100% is crazy enough. But why is stock market ignoring this?
Liberty Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/
ERICOPOLY Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3ba5j/trump-is-scapegoating-the-who-but-failed-to-confirm-a-us-representative-for-3-years WASHINGTON — President Trump has sought to pin the blame for his administration’s disastrous response to the novel coronavirus on the World Health Organization, painting it as too corrupt and scared of China to label the novel coronavirus a pandemic until far too late. But the Trump administration and Senate Republicans never bothered to confirm a permanent representative for the United States’ seat on the WHO’s executive board, a sign of how little attention the administration paid to the global health organization until recent weeks. Experts say that left the U.S. without a well-established senior voice in the U.N.’s global health body, surrendering influence to China as it worked to cover up the extent of the growing COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, and weakened America’s influence on the body during critical early-February meetings when the response to the emerging crisis was debated. Dr. Nils Daulaire, who had the job for one three-year term under President Obama, said the Trump administration’s failure to have a high-level, Senate-confirmed appointee to the board handed China exactly the kind of leverage that Trump has since griped about — and potentially undercut international response to the coronavirus pandemic. It was Trump's job to get this done, he failed, and now he gripes about the consequence of failure.
Liberty Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 New essay by Marc Andreessen, "It's Time to Build": https://a16z.com/2020/04/18/its-time-to-build/
Liberty Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/z3ba5j/trump-is-scapegoating-the-who-but-failed-to-confirm-a-us-representative-for-3-years WASHINGTON — President Trump has sought to pin the blame for his administration’s disastrous response to the novel coronavirus on the World Health Organization, painting it as too corrupt and scared of China to label the novel coronavirus a pandemic until far too late. But the Trump administration and Senate Republicans never bothered to confirm a permanent representative for the United States’ seat on the WHO’s executive board, a sign of how little attention the administration paid to the global health organization until recent weeks. Experts say that left the U.S. without a well-established senior voice in the U.N.’s global health body, surrendering influence to China as it worked to cover up the extent of the growing COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, and weakened America’s influence on the body during critical early-February meetings when the response to the emerging crisis was debated. Dr. Nils Daulaire, who had the job for one three-year term under President Obama, said the Trump administration’s failure to have a high-level, Senate-confirmed appointee to the board handed China exactly the kind of leverage that Trump has since griped about — and potentially undercut international response to the coronavirus pandemic. It was Trump's job to get this done, he failed, and now he gripes about the consequence of failure. I've said it before, but it's exactly what Michael Lewis warned about in The Fifth Risk. Incompetence (and disinterest in even trying to learn about it all, frankly) at running the very large, very complex machinery of the US government is leaving citizens at risk during crises. Countless important posts filled by either mediocre cronies selected for loyalty, or unfilled for months and years all around every department... And anyone capable who tries end ups leaving quickly because nobody with integrity and competence can handle what's required to stick around. Leadership and expertise vacuums everywhere. It'll end up costing infinitely more than having done it right from the start.
RichardGibbons Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/ The odd thing in this article is the R0 of 3.5 for SARS. I always thought that SARS didn't become a pandemic because its R0 was low enough that it was preventable. But the R0 of 3.5 indicates that wasn't the case. Does anyone know why SARS ended up being no big deal? Was our test and track just so much better? Did most people already have immunity? Something else?
snailslug Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/ The odd thing in this article is the R0 of 3.5 for SARS. I always thought that SARS didn't become a pandemic because its R0 was low enough that it was preventable. But the R0 of 3.5 indicates that wasn't the case. Does anyone know why SARS ended up being no big deal? Was our test and track just so much better? Did most people already have immunity? Something else? People get severely sick from SARS right away so you could put them in quarantine. Didn't have the problem of many asymptomatic spreaders like COVID.
RichardGibbons Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 People get severely sick from SARS right away so you could put them in quarantine. Didn't have the problem of many asymptomatic spreaders like COVID. Ah, that makes sense. Thanks, slug.
Liberty Posted April 20, 2020 Posted April 20, 2020 “‘Get out there and get the job done,’ he tweeted to the governor of New York. If only he were in a position to offer more than verbal encouragement!“
Liberty Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 https://twitter.com/cloisterres/status/1252358722241695745?s=21 SEROLOGY TESTS AREN'T USEFUL WHEN THE TRUE POPULATION PREVALENCE IS CLOSE TO THE FALSE POSITIVE RATE
samwise Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Base case: constant caseload, rolling lockdowns, 1% of the world population dies (80M) or whatever the true death rate is. Bad for the economy also. I don't want to come across as cynical or anything (and I'm definitely not making any immoral suggestions), but if you look at the profile of that 1% I'm not so sure that would be bad for the economy as a whole at all. Agreed. As an investor I don’t think much productive capacity is lost from the economy. But a lot of time is lost till then. If we simply had zero earnings for two years, followed by a return to normal, most investments would be bargains now. But as an investor, I don’t know who owns the assets by the time we are through this. Not many businesses can survive for long at close to zero revenue, but with fixed costs like rent and interest. So the equity can be wiped, loaded with debt or diluted.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 https://twitter.com/cloisterres/status/1252358722241695745?s=21 SEROLOGY TESTS AREN'T USEFUL WHEN THE TRUE POPULATION PREVALENCE IS CLOSE TO THE FALSE POSITIVE RATE More info: https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat507/node/71/
RichardGibbons Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 More info: https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat507/node/71/ Nah, that requires math, not just common sense. So it must be wrong.
orthopa Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 http://www.publichealth.lacounty.gov/phcommon/public/media/mediapubhpdetail.cfm?prid=2328 USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health (Public Health) today released preliminary results from a collaborative scientific study that suggests infections from the new coronavirus are far more widespread - and the fatality rate much lower - in L.A. County than previously thought. Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the county's adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600. If all these antibody tests are wrong they are all wrong in the same direction and same amount? Maybe if we get 2, 3, 4, 5 more studies we will know if we are being fooled by the false positive rate? I agree having a poor test is no good, just like 1, 2, 3 months ago this is all new and are learning about this disease everyday. What is very concerning is relying on these tests to track and trace if they are no good. If you dont believe the lowered CFR you get with tests how do you reliably track and trace with them? What a complete and utter waste of time that is.
Guest cherzeca Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 "If we test in a high prevalence setting, it is more likely that persons who test positive truly have disease than if the test is performed in a population with low prevalence.." this is supposed to be meaningful...?
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 More info: https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat507/node/71/ Nah, that requires math, not just common sense. So it must be wrong. ;D Nice job, I Lol'd.
orthopa Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 For those that feel strongly we should track and trace how would you go about that? I'm not arguing against it but the man power needed, the time for testing, and the tracking really would border on unfathomable. How often do you test someone? If they have a fever at home? At work? Whats a fever? I have patients that tell me they "run low" and 99 degrees is a fever for them. Once a week for everyone in a hot spot or cluster? How do you coordinate a couple hundred thousand people that may have taken public transit, etc and find the time let alone the resources to actually see these people in a medical facility, test them, and then trace even outside of immediate family/workplace. You quickly could be over a million contacts in a week. Its mind boggling and virtually impossible. I think in theory its great and those seeing patients/clients in any business would quickly understand the many power/time/facility/cost to event try to test 5000 people in a couple days let alone trace contacts ON TOP providing healthcare for the public once the States re opn. Who is going to do this? As bad as it sounds practically speaking herd immunity/vaccine/cure is only option. I fear a testing/tracking program would fail miserably. Not because its not the right thing to do or best thing to do but I feel it would border on downright impossible in a country like the US. I give the S. Koreans a lot credit if this was the true reason it worked. God damn.
Spekulatius Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 For those that feel strongly we should track and trace how would you go about that? I'm not arguing against it but the man power needed, the time for testing, and the tracking really would border on unfathomable. How often do you test someone? If they have a fever at home? At work? Whats a fever? I have patients that tell me they "run low" and 99 degrees is a fever for them. Once a week for everyone in a hot spot or cluster? How do you coordinate a couple hundred thousand people that may have taken public transit, etc and find the time let alone the resources to actually see these people in a medical facility, test them, and then trace even outside of immediate family/workplace. You quickly could be over a million contacts in a week. Its mind boggling and virtually impossible. I think in theory its great and those seeing patients/clients in any business would quickly understand the many power/time/facility/cost to event try to test 5000 people in a couple days let alone trace contacts ON TOP providing healthcare for the public once the States re opn. Who is going to do this? As bad as it sounds practically speaking herd immunity/vaccine/cure is only option. I fear a testing/tracking program would fail miserably. Not because its not the right thing to do or best thing to do but I feel it would border on downright impossible in a country like the US. I give the S. Koreans a lot credit if this was the true reason it worked. God damn. Contact tracing only works well when you have a small number of cases. When you exceed about 100 cases, it can‘t be done comprehensively and then the only way to works this is to prioritize the contacts (work, family, vulnerable persons who came in contact etc) and hopefully get them quickly quarantined and tested (with rapid feedback). I know for fact that it’s done in Germany and I think they are trying in Massachusetts.
tng Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 For those that feel strongly we should track and trace how would you go about that? I'm not arguing against it but the man power needed, the time for testing, and the tracking really would border on unfathomable. How often do you test someone? If they have a fever at home? At work? Whats a fever? I have patients that tell me they "run low" and 99 degrees is a fever for them. Once a week for everyone in a hot spot or cluster? How do you coordinate a couple hundred thousand people that may have taken public transit, etc and find the time let alone the resources to actually see these people in a medical facility, test them, and then trace even outside of immediate family/workplace. You quickly could be over a million contacts in a week. Its mind boggling and virtually impossible. I think in theory its great and those seeing patients/clients in any business would quickly understand the many power/time/facility/cost to event try to test 5000 people in a couple days let alone trace contacts ON TOP providing healthcare for the public once the States re opn. Who is going to do this? As bad as it sounds practically speaking herd immunity/vaccine/cure is only option. I fear a testing/tracking program would fail miserably. Not because its not the right thing to do or best thing to do but I feel it would border on downright impossible in a country like the US. I give the S. Koreans a lot credit if this was the true reason it worked. God damn. Yeah, once you look at the false positive rate and false negative rate of existing tests, and then look at how many people use the subway system in New York and Boston, you have to become very skeptical that it will work. How many false positives are going to be in one train alone (let alone the dozens of trains during rush hour)? You'll end up tracing down the entirety of the city on false positives alone. And if you let a single false negative into a system that transports millions of people a day, you are fucked. The thing that sucks is that tests for this virus are not very accurate. That's why I think that the actual reason why South Korea isn't hit as hard are actually due to far more simpler reasons, such as face masks or low obesity rate.
RichardGibbons Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 This has some nice quotes from COVID-19: https://thebeaverton.com/2020/04/we-need-to-open-up-the-economy-and-get-back-to-work-says-covid-19/
samwise Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 https://peterattiamd.com/covid-19-whats-wrong-with-the-models/ Thanks for the interesting links Liberty. He now believes that true infections are way higher and true mortality way lower than he thought a month ago. He is suggesting that an anti-body test in NYC is now needed to know the true infections rate. If we truly find large numbers were infected, way above the false positive rate, that would be good news for health and wealth. Not sure what he saw to change his mind. But assuming the death rate is much lower, what would change? Not sure it would change anything about the correct policy response. No government will want their ICUs overloaded. So they will reduce contacts every time ICUs seem to be getting full, and ease up when ICUs are way below capacity. The virus reacts fast. So they will get constant feedback in 10-14 days. What it would change is reduced ultimate deaths and the less time before we get to normal. Less time means companies and consumers will burn through less cash, or take on less debt. These are good for equity investors.
Viking Posted April 21, 2020 Posted April 21, 2020 Oh boy: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639?s=20 Trump is getting killed on how he has managed the virus and it is getting worse. So what does he do? He manufactures a new ‘issue’ that the news media will shift their focus to. The messier the better. Smart, smart man! However, this is not good for the US. Among other things, immigration brings in needed skills. It also provides a nice boost to GDP as all those immigrants provide a nice economic boost (need to eat and sleep somewhere).
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