JRM Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 FWIW found this on twitter. I guess I can say I always had a bit of skepticism regarding where we were exactly on the curve and some of the dire predictions that some had. It looks like some have been keeping track. Looks like a "little" closer for icu demand. NC situation https://twitter.com/houstonniner/status/1245817687319752705/photo/1 Certainly way to early to say if this was all over blown or not but interesting to look at anyway. Silver lining maybe we get through this easier then projected. In the back of my mind though I cant help hearing, "wait 2 more weeks", just "wait 2 more weeks" What? Go tell NYC they're winning. Tell New Orleans everything is fine because they're coming in better than projected. Maybe wrecking the economy is helping to "beat" the model in many areas. If my model says 10M people will die in the U.S and only 1M people die then it's a grand success?
Spekulatius Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 "But they [epidemiologists] at least know what they're talking about and know what the data means better than laymen...." so lets get beyond the stupid medial reporting and try to understand epidemiologists. epidemiologists are second rate statisticians plain and simple. here is their advice. based upon their assumptions (which have no resemblance to common sense), their models predict with a purported 95% accuracy rate that US deaths will range from 30,000-160,000. feel smarter now? Quite frankly, that’s a third grade comment. throwing inventive means you dont have a clue Spek. I put you in the Dalal pile I am honored to be in his pile.
gary17 Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 what they said quite clearly when they introduced the 30 day they said we felt we *could* lift everything at Easter but there's a very good chance things aren't 100% and will see regions flare up so they want to make it 30 days to really kill this thing more or less what they said... interesting: CDC is going to recommend nation wide wearing of masks. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/02/coronavirus-facemasks-policyreversal/
Spekulatius Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 well Gregmal, I guess you call it like you see it. I thought Trump's response had a lot to be desired and can understand why many "jack assed" lefties and Americans in general were extremely pissed and complaining. Especially if you live in a major city, which many of them do. In the end, the slowness and un-seriousness while the virus played out in front of our eyes in other countries is going to cost a lot of American lives. Personally I find it really, really sad and tragic, both because strong competence would have made a huge difference, and because it seems like enough of us are dumb enough to buy Trump's "I did great, I closed the border with China" shtick that the guy might actually get elected again despite killing off what he predicts will be 100ks of Americans w/ our slow and cavalier response. If there is a silver lining perhaps some apolitical Americans will shift attitudes about politics and whether it "matters" who is the leader. Yea, Greg - Trump should have taken that Bill DeBlasio approach - keep Chinatown open and tell everyone to ride the subway WEEKS AFTER January 31st. Now THAT is real leadership saving thousands of lives in NYC! “The Facts Are Reassuring,” De Blasio Says on March 2 “The facts are reassuring,” the New York mayor said during a March 2 press conference alongside New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. De Blasio added: “We have a lot of information now, information that is actually showing us things that should give us more reason to stay calm and go about our lives” normally. “Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus,” de Blasio told his Twitter followers on March 3, no more than two weeks before likening the outbreak to a type of world war that required nationalizing industries. Nothing to worry about in NYC - but if it changes, we can blame it on the President De Blasio has been shown to be incompetent. Cuomo and Newsom and Inslee have acted competent. I am no fan of Newsom, but in this matter he has acted responsibly.
Liberty Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615353/singapore-is-the-model-for-how-to-handle-the-coronavirus/
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 "But they [epidemiologists] at least know what they're talking about and know what the data means better than laymen...." so lets get beyond the stupid medial reporting and try to understand epidemiologists. epidemiologists are second rate statisticians plain and simple. here is their advice. based upon their assumptions (which have no resemblance to common sense), their models predict with a purported 95% accuracy rate that US deaths will range from 30,000-160,000. feel smarter now? Quite frankly, that’s a third grade comment. throwing inventive means you dont have a clue Spek. I put you in the Dalal pile I am honored to be in his pile.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615353/singapore-is-the-model-for-how-to-handle-the-coronavirus/ I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell.
cubsfan Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 De Blasio has been shown to be incompetent. Cuomo and Newsom and Inslee have acted competent. I am no fan of Newsom, but in this matter he has acted responsibly. Nice to agree for once!
Spekulatius Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615353/singapore-is-the-model-for-how-to-handle-the-coronavirus/ I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell. Japan is pretty suspect. The numbers don’t add up relative to the action they have taken. Is it just just a barrel of gunpowder ready to explode? I have no idea.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615353/singapore-is-the-model-for-how-to-handle-the-coronavirus/ I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell. Japan is pretty suspect. The numbers don’t add up relative to the action they have taken. Is it just just a barrel of gunpowder ready to explode? I have no idea. True, they are on an exponential trend now (just checked). Maybe they were just covering it up while they mulled over deciding what to do w the Olympics.
Spekulatius Posted April 2, 2020 Posted April 2, 2020 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615353/singapore-is-the-model-for-how-to-handle-the-coronavirus/ I wonder if Singapore/HK are good examples to compare to: humid/tropical climates (likely reduce transmission) and city-states (easier to govern). I still think S Korea/Japan are the relevant examples for U.S. and Europe (relatively democratic nations). Maybe Taiwan too, but also warm & humid place. Germany seems to be proving the Western model nation but time will tell. Japan is pretty suspect. The numbers don’t add up relative to the action they have taken. Is it just just a barrel of gunpowder ready to explode? I have no idea. True, they are on an exponential trend now (just checked). Maybe they were just covering it up while they mulled over deciding what to do w the Olympics. That’s my suspicion too. We will find out. You can cover up 1000‘s of cases in a Country of this size, but when it goes to 10k or 100k cases, then Cover ups don’t work any more.
LC Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 And none of you can name the world leaders that have handled this disaster well. So many of them followed Trump's extreme actions while the opposition party criticized his moves. Well off the top of my head I'd put Polis and Cuomo ahead of Trump but those are the only 2 governors I know a bit of detail about their response. Still, imagining either of those two as President and I can't imagine them making as many errors as Trump did. Globally? South Korean and Singapore leadership seems more effective just going from the numbers. Australian and German leaders appear to have responded more urgently. Denmark and Norway as well. But look, I just googled it for ten minutes so maybe I'm totally wrong. In contrast, Trump tried to defer all responsibility from the start, only took it seriously when his back was up against the wall, and subsequently stumbled just about every step of the way from there. The fact that there is STILL a lack of federal coordination and communication for PPE and other medical supplies is mind boggling.
RichardGibbons Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 And none of you can name the world leaders that have handled this disaster well. So many of them followed Trump's extreme actions while the opposition party criticized his moves. Well, you seem to think Trump handled the disaster well. So on that basis, I'll assume that you'd be satisfied with the name of any leader who handled it better than Trump. I'm pretty bad at naming world leaders, but if I'm allowed to look them up, Italian Prime Minister Conte has handled this disaster better than Trump. Really, the hardest part of this game is naming the leaders, because almost every country's federal leadership did better than the USA. So let's add Trudeau, Ardern, Moon, Tsai, Obrador, Merkel, Frederiksen, Macron, Sanchez, Abe, Johnson.... Maybe that's a better game--who did worse than Trump? Perhaps Xi, but unlike most leaders, he didn't have 3 months warning about the effects of the virus before it attacked his country. Maybe Rouhani, but I'm not that sure about Iranian response. Really, if we're allowed to use the Internet to look up world leaders, I'm not sure why you think this is a challenge. If not, then it's pretty close to the challenge of "name world leaders who have bankrupted fewer casinos than Trump."
Jurgis Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 I am honored to be in his pile. Can I join this pile? 8)
arcube Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 Good piece. https://hbr.org/2020/03/understanding-the-economic-shock-of-coronavirus At present, the economic outlook for late actors looks bleak, having caught politicians, policy makers, and financial markets off guard. What happened in the last four weeks was not part of the risk calculation. Forecasts won’t help much here. For example, consensus estimates for initial unemployment claims in the U.S. were around 1.6 million this week, but the figure came in at 3.28 million — an historically unprecedented figure, about five times greater than the largest weekly increase in the global financial crisis. Notoriously unreliable at the best of times, forecasts look especially dubious now as there are simply too many unknowable aspects: The virus’ properties are not fully understood and could change. The role of asymptomatic patients is still imperfectly understood. The true rates of infection and immunity are therefore uncertain, especially where testing is limited. Policy responses will be uneven, often delayed, and there will be missteps. The reactions of firms and households are uncertain. Perhaps the only certainty is that any attempt at a definitive forecast will fail. However, we think examining various scenarios still adds value in this environment of limited visibility.
cobafdek Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 So we are now at the stage of "nobody else could have done anything anyway" and "look at all the things he is doing now". Expect this to persist till November. Some of us work hard to develop foresight (which you can verify by looking back on this thread: worrying about virus/testing in late Feb when your boy was calling it "a hoax" and "like the Flu" or your congressmen who had foresight to dump stocks, and when we don't achieve foresight, we ought to then use hindsight (acknowledging & learning from our mistakes), but some people instead choose no sight (willful blindness). We know this guy and his supporters' MO. Nothing is his fault (it was Sessions, Flynn, Bolton, etc etc a.k.a. the buck never stops at me) and "I can shoot a man on 5th ave and I wouldn't lose voters". I much prefer the "you can fool some of the people all of the time" quip which is credited to a much greater President (though doubtful he said it). For the record, I fault the administration for: 1. Listening to Fauci which likely contributed to delaying the China travel ban back in January. 2. Over-reliance on models. 3. Not mandating, or at least strongly recommending, masks or similar facial covering. Netanyahu is a friend of the President. You can bet the administration is considering (or at least should be) adopting his idea for cellphone tracking and stiff penalties. I'll go further and propose similar penalties for not wearing a mask. Let's say you're part of the task force discussion. Where do you come down on this issue?
cubsfan Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 And none of you can name the world leaders that have handled this disaster well. So many of them followed Trump's extreme actions while the opposition party criticized his moves. Well, you seem to think Trump handled the disaster well. So on that basis, I'll assume that you'd be satisfied with the name of any leader who handled it better than Trump. I'm pretty bad at naming world leaders, but if I'm allowed to look them up, Italian Prime Minister Conte has handled this disaster better than Trump. Really, the hardest part of this game is naming the leaders, because almost every country's federal leadership did better than the USA. So let's add Trudeau, Ardern, Moon, Tsai, Obrador, Merkel, Frederiksen, Macron, Sanchez, Abe, Johnson.... Maybe that's a better game--who did worse than Trump? Perhaps Xi, but unlike most leaders, he didn't have 3 months warning about the effects of the virus before it attacked his country. Maybe Rouhani, but I'm not that sure about Iranian response. Really, if we're allowed to use the Internet to look up world leaders, I'm not sure why you think this is a challenge. If not, then it's pretty close to the challenge of "name world leaders who have bankrupted fewer casinos than Trump." oh yeah, right - they all did so well - ESPECIALLY Iran & Italy - now that is really funny! Oh and the Chinese REALLY did a masterful job - especially when they exported it all over the world! Gotta love the job Premier Xi did! Make some more excuses for Xi, given he had "no notice".
LC Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 And none of you can name the world leaders that have handled this disaster well. So many of them followed Trump's extreme actions while the opposition party criticized his moves. Well, you seem to think Trump handled the disaster well. So on that basis, I'll assume that you'd be satisfied with the name of any leader who handled it better than Trump. I'm pretty bad at naming world leaders, but if I'm allowed to look them up, Italian Prime Minister Conte has handled this disaster better than Trump. Really, the hardest part of this game is naming the leaders, because almost every country's federal leadership did better than the USA. So let's add Trudeau, Ardern, Moon, Tsai, Obrador, Merkel, Frederiksen, Macron, Sanchez, Abe, Johnson.... Maybe that's a better game--who did worse than Trump? Perhaps Xi, but unlike most leaders, he didn't have 3 months warning about the effects of the virus before it attacked his country. Maybe Rouhani, but I'm not that sure about Iranian response. Really, if we're allowed to use the Internet to look up world leaders, I'm not sure why you think this is a challenge. If not, then it's pretty close to the challenge of "name world leaders who have bankrupted fewer casinos than Trump." oh yeah, right - they all did so well - ESPECIALLY Iran & Italy - now that is really funny! Oh and the Chinese REALLY did a masterful job - especially when they exported it all over the world! Gotta love the job Premier Xi did! Make some more excuses for Xi, given he had "no notice". Italy had drastically different circumstances - under which the Italian PM performed far better than Trump. Iran and China RG admittedly did not perform great. In other words, you asked the question and then cherry picked the answer. It is no wonder it took you begging before you got a response to your loaded question.
Dalal.Holdings Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 I am honored to be in his pile. Can I join this pile? 8) Hell ya
orthopa Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 FWIW found this on twitter. I guess I can say I always had a bit of skepticism regarding where we were exactly on the curve and some of the dire predictions that some had. It looks like some have been keeping track. Looks like a "little" closer for icu demand. NC situation https://twitter.com/houstonniner/status/1245817687319752705/photo/1 Certainly way to early to say if this was all over blown or not but interesting to look at anyway. Silver lining maybe we get through this easier then projected. In the back of my mind though I cant help hearing, "wait 2 more weeks", just "wait 2 more weeks" What? Go tell NYC they're winning. Tell New Orleans everything is fine because they're coming in better than projected. Maybe wrecking the economy is helping to "beat" the model in many areas. If my model says 10M people will die in the U.S and only 1M people die then it's a grand success? How do you interpret the data? Are you saying the amount of resources needed were not overestimated? Whats your goal, try to make sure no one dies from the corona virus?
cubsfan Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 And none of you can name the world leaders that have handled this disaster well. So many of them followed Trump's extreme actions while the opposition party criticized his moves. Well, you seem to think Trump handled the disaster well. So on that basis, I'll assume that you'd be satisfied with the name of any leader who handled it better than Trump. I'm pretty bad at naming world leaders, but if I'm allowed to look them up, Italian Prime Minister Conte has handled this disaster better than Trump. Really, the hardest part of this game is naming the leaders, because almost every country's federal leadership did better than the USA. So let's add Trudeau, Ardern, Moon, Tsai, Obrador, Merkel, Frederiksen, Macron, Sanchez, Abe, Johnson.... Maybe that's a better game--who did worse than Trump? Perhaps Xi, but unlike most leaders, he didn't have 3 months warning about the effects of the virus before it attacked his country. Maybe Rouhani, but I'm not that sure about Iranian response. Really, if we're allowed to use the Internet to look up world leaders, I'm not sure why you think this is a challenge. If not, then it's pretty close to the challenge of "name world leaders who have bankrupted fewer casinos than Trump." oh yeah, right - they all did so well - ESPECIALLY Iran & Italy - now that is really funny! Oh and the Chinese REALLY did a masterful job - especially when they exported it all over the world! Gotta love the job Premier Xi did! Make some more excuses for Xi, given he had "no notice". Italy had drastically different circumstances - under which the Italian PM performed far better than Trump. Iran and China RG admittedly did not perform great. In other words, you asked the question and then cherry picked the answer. It is no wonder it took you begging before you got a response to your loaded question. Wrong Brother LC - look it up - I know you are good at math: Italy's CV death rate is now 10X HIGHER per capita than the USA. So, yea - the Italian PM did a fantastic job IF YOU DON'T MIND DYING. You really, really want to tell me you would rather contract corona virus in Italy than the USA? Seriously? Italy is a disaster. The USA rate is SLIGHTLY higher than Germany, which everyone is raving about. Twist the narrative all you want - the numbers are the numbers. I'll just assume you missed it, since I know you are smarter than that.
meiroy Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 China should get credit where it is due. They had to make quick decisions while a lot of that we know now was unknown then and of course what we're able to do now as far as testing and treatment. This just makes the USA reaction far, far worse. My guess is that they were so effective simply by having everyone wear masks from the beginning and enforcing it. Iran is something completely different, it's a semi-failed state for years now, so who knows what's going to happen there, it surely is already out of control. My subjective opinion about Italy is that it's a country caught in a high level of debt for a long time and they simply cannot grow out of it or deal with due to the chains imposed by the union. The system is also highly corrupt. It's not a country you'd want the USA to follow...
Gregmal Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/
meiroy Posted April 3, 2020 Posted April 3, 2020 https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/scientists-believe-they-found-potential-coronavirus-vaccine/ There are several potential vaccines by now, some already under testing with human subjects. Real news would be if they find a way to determine the efficacy and safety within two months...
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