Sweet Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/ New highs from the cowboys. They never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SharperDingaan Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 (edited) We own both of these, reduced our weighting, and have redeployed into other WCSB o/g. The service coy's are a seasonal Nov-June trade, and most would expect the focus this season to be primarily on M&A vs new drilling. Nobody wants to pressure daily rates more than they have to; expect drilling plans adjusted to pick up available rigs, but that's about it. The service side should thrive next season. All the consolidators will be 'manufacturing', higher-end rigs will be on-site longer, drilling more and longer length horizontal wells; lower-end rigs will also be boring for water floods. Assuming USD 70-80 WTI, most wells should have payback periods < 1 yr; and it'll be a great time for the rig pigs. For the service side; higher day rates, a lot more days on site, and not many more net new rigs ... as there just aren't the crews. There may be some M&A in the services space, but expect it to be small, and primarily tuck-in acquisitions. It's also Canada; take your time over winter/spring, favour quality over quantity, and use the sales to fill up the pantry. If you have the life stage, and the risk tolerance; favour quantity as there could well be some life-changing opportunities. May we all do well. SD Edited November 4, 2023 by SharperDingaan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 2 hours ago, Sweet said: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/ New highs from the cowboys. They never learn. They get paid to drill, not by ROE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 8 hours ago, LC said: They get paid to drill, not by ROE That’s a major problem for shareholders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NnnnotSoSmart Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 Arjun Murti: Energy M&A Q&A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cor Posted November 6, 2023 Share Posted November 6, 2023 On 11/3/2023 at 6:00 PM, SharperDingaan said: We own both of these, reduced our weighting, and have redeployed into other WCSB o/g. The service coy's are a seasonal Nov-June trade, and most would expect the focus this season to be primarily on M&A vs new drilling. Nobody wants to pressure daily rates more than they have to; expect drilling plans adjusted to pick up available rigs, but that's about it. The service side should thrive next season. All the consolidators will be 'manufacturing', higher-end rigs will be on-site longer, drilling more and longer length horizontal wells; lower-end rigs will also be boring for water floods. Assuming USD 70-80 WTI, most wells should have payback periods < 1 yr; and it'll be a great time for the rig pigs. For the service side; higher day rates, a lot more days on site, and not many more net new rigs ... as there just aren't the crews. There may be some M&A in the services space, but expect it to be small, and primarily tuck-in acquisitions. It's also Canada; take your time over winter/spring, favour quality over quantity, and use the sales to fill up the pantry. If you have the life stage, and the risk tolerance; favour quantity as there could well be some life-changing opportunities. May we all do well. SD Thank you SD, this is very informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backtothebeach Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Thanks to whoever wrote here "You don't buy oil, you rent oil" and "Please god give me just one more oil bull market." This time I finally got the message and got rid of most oil stocks when it seemed like the only way was up. Not at the very top, but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 Never a dull moment in energy with crude futures down 4%+ today. Has anybody an idea why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Spekulatius said: Never a dull moment in energy with crude futures down 4%+ today. Has anybody an idea why? Synchronized global deflationary Recession ... obviously! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ulti Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/French-Utility-Giant-European-Natural-Gas-Demand-Is-Unlikely-To-Recover.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-sink-4-on-demand-destruction-worries-weak-china-exports-152159486.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ulti said: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/French-Utility-Giant-European-Natural-Gas-Demand-Is-Unlikely-To-Recover.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-prices-sink-4-on-demand-destruction-worries-weak-china-exports-152159486.html Don't fret, we have been managing "demand destruction" with supply destruction for a while now - we will shrink our way to a bull market, call the Saudis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted November 7, 2023 Share Posted November 7, 2023 (edited) 35 minutes ago, backtothebeach said: Thanks to whoever wrote here "You don't buy oil, you rent oil" and "Please god give me just one more oil bull market." This time I finally got the message and got rid of most oil stocks when it seemed like the only way was up. Not at the very top, but close enough. Always fun to trade around these positions based on the immediate sentiment. Have made several rounds trips in WCP position I've been in since late 2020. 6-7 weeks ago, I sold a slug of shares @ 11.51. today I'm repurchasing them for 10.01. Love it! Edited November 7, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 Considering buffett is bound to buy large cap oil, what are some of the smaller oil players that are maybe even cheaper and have a similiar story as oxy? Could somebody point me towards the right threads, would be much appreciated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malmqky Posted November 8, 2023 Share Posted November 8, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, Luca said: Considering buffett is bound to buy large cap oil, what are some of the smaller oil players that are maybe even cheaper and have a similiar story as oxy? Could somebody point me towards the right threads, would be much appreciated UNTC isn’t necessarily the same story, but trading well below intrinsic value and is yielding 20% with 8ish years of reserves. Going to be returning a lot of cash to shareholders. Edited November 8, 2023 by Malmqky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luca Posted November 9, 2023 Share Posted November 9, 2023 11 hours ago, Malmqky said: UNTC isn’t necessarily the same story, but trading well below intrinsic value and is yielding 20% with 8ish years of reserves. Going to be returning a lot of cash to shareholders. Thanks, will have a look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 On 11/7/2023 at 2:58 PM, gfp said: Don't fret, we have been managing "demand destruction" with supply destruction for a while now - we will shrink our way to a bull market, call the Saudis! Phew! https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/opec-agrees-to-significant-oil-production-cut-c8c6c131?mod=hp_lead_pos4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) Another new record: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/ 13.236 million, there was some discussion about whether they hit those figures in October. Turns out they hit 13.2 in September. The shale bros are legit morons. Edited November 30, 2023 by Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Guyana https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/South-Americas-Offshore-Oil-Boom-Will-Challenge-OPECs-Dominance.html hope they don't fall into the resource curse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Williams406 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 https://www.gorozen.com/commentaries/3q2023 the latest from G&R. As usual, quite a bit on oil/gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 hour ago, fareastwarriors said: Guyana https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/South-Americas-Offshore-Oil-Boom-Will-Challenge-OPECs-Dominance.html hope they don't fall into the resource curse... I think this offshore trend extends all the way from Venezuela to Brazil. $APA / Total already have several gushers in Suriname next to Guyana. PBR intends to drill in Brazillian offshore waters there. This will probably be a monster exploration area similar to shale in the USA. Opec better watch out or try to get this countries into their fold but in a way it wont matter, because for these countries, drilling for these resources is a no brainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 minute ago, Spekulatius said: I think this offshore trend extends all the way from Venezuela to Brazil. $APA / Total already have several gushers in Suriname next to Guyana. PBR intends to drill in Brazillian offshore waters there. This will probably be a monster exploration area similar to shale in the USA. Opec better watch out or try to get this countries into their fold but in a way it wont matter, because for these countries, drilling for these resources is a no brainer. Yes... The only thing stopping this likely massive haul is their respective governments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castanza Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: their respective governments Or others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spekulatius Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, fareastwarriors said: Yes... The only thing stopping this likely massive haul is their respective governments... Why would they stop this. Guyana is poor and going to a massive boom already, all fueled by energy investments. Suriname is in the same situation and looks like the O&G cos have been reasonable terms. This oil is going to flow as well. Venezuela has plenty off resources and cant even manage those - so the more difficult offshore fields will remain unexploited if they exist. But the rest is a go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweet Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Found religion my ass, even in Canadian producers are at it: At some point the Saudis and OPEC are going to increase their production again. Right now they are focused on price but at some point they will care about market share again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 NYT: Surging U.S. Oil Production Brings Down Prices and Raises Climate Fears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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