Energy Sector

[Gregmal]

14 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

And when you say "esoteric financial instruments," I assume you're talking about derivatives?

I have no way of timing this stuff. All I know is that we are on a path towards disaster if nothing changes, and at this point, I'm basically certain that it won't. But I don't know when, no one does. It could be tomorrow or it could be in ten years. But there's no doubt it'll be big. It'll scare people too.

I kicked myself for a while not buying VIX calls before Liberation Day though. I knew it was gonna be a doozy.

Yes theres plenty of financial products, derivatives, etc that you can persistently play to hedge tail risk. If you think bonds blow you can allocate to futures options. You can pair trade. You can do lots of things; and essentially turn the marketplace into a profitability center for yourself almost irrespective of directional wagering. It's a big part of what I did for a good chunk of my career. I mean heck, even just selling puts on modest amounts of Berkshire at a price you'd find appealing generates some extra alpha. Rolling oil futures options. Find a well run small cap energy company and sell puts as the IVs are usually quite high on those. Even if not fully comfortable, @SharperDingaanhas mentioned many times about the model that I'd subscribe to; plant some seeds, harvest, repatriate some profits, and then reinvest. Eventually your repatriated profits pay down your mortgages, car loans, student loans, whatever. 

 

You can do math. The math on how ridiculous it is to ever get to a comfortable place in life without getting help from investments in just ludicrous. At $200k a year average salary, which is $150k per year after tax lets call it, with $50k of necessary expenses(thats low), you gotta do that for 20 years to save a couple million bucks. And guess what? I'd wager most folks never make $200k per year, and those that do tend to start only after working for a decade or more. You gotta find escape velocity with your finances somewhere. 

[Castanza]

58 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

I have no way of timing this stuff. All I know is that we are on a path towards disaster if nothing changes, and at this point, I'm basically certain that it won't. But I don't know when, no one does. It could be tomorrow or it could be in ten years. But there's no doubt it'll be big. It'll scare people too.

 

You have the answer to the test but choose to ignore it....You can't time it so why are you trying? 

 

For simplicity sake, say you sat on 100k cash the last 10 years. You would have to average almost ~17% annually for the next 35 years just to break even with average market returns (10% annual). I know there are some astute investors on here (cough gfp) who have averaged better than that. But why the Hell would you want to make that your minimum required hurdle rate? Further, every year you're between 0 - (10%) that adds an additional ~.5-1.5% required annual return increase moving forward to break even at year 35 (rough math). 

 

Food for thought.

 

 

[influx]

On 6/2/2026 at 8:39 AM, Gregmal said:

I’d just pay attention. I mean the world slowly seems to be waking up to the idea that it’s not worth the woke points or whatever they get neglecting their energy infrastructure and fossil fuels. Capex is increasing. These prices, even though not even high, are a boon to anyone producing and an incentive to produce more. Why should oil be higher, let alone substantially higher? Because of things that already happened? Oil is not scarce, everyone has it and with some money in the ground can access it. 

 

If there’s one thing that’s certain, it’s that the oil cheerleaders constantly lie and exaggerate. How many times have we been promised $200 oil? And yet the only times it’s ever even gotta past $100, it’s short term, penny stock pump and dump style quick spikes. The bulls are also ALWAYS convinced oil should be higher. The same way stock market bears are appalled anytime we have a green day. They just  inherently believe that “the market deserves to be down and oil needs to be way higher”. It should be obvious just from watching that the only time oil goes up is when there’s some sensational media driven news flow. $70 a barrel is largely where there seems to be a healthy equilibrium. 

 

Okay. I am sorry, but I am not sure what are you watching? You are talking about cheerleaders and sort of saying the price is right because it is the market price and cheerleaders were wrong in the past. I read the other posts as well of yours (back and forth with @kab60).

I understand why the price may be right at the moment, but love to know why you think this price is right in the next 3-6-12 months?

"What would cause you to change your mind? Do you have any parameters / variables that you are watching, assuming you are following this closely? "

I am not talking about the long-term. I am bearish medium to long-term. All sorts of supply or workarounds will be put in place. There is a sequence risk though (to the price).

 

Facts are:

1. Jawboning (and/or managing the futures market). Why would they do that if there is no issue and the price is fine?

2. SPR releases because there is a supply problem. This is a temp fix.

3. Is it not the first time we have a supply risk and issue of this size? 

[Paarslaars]

5 hours ago, Gregmal said:

And guess what? I'd wager most folks never make $200k per year, and those that do tend to start only after working for a decade or more. You gotta find escape velocity with your finances somewhere. 

 

Not to mention those who do, worked hard and long to get there, they want to start reaping the benefits.

So they easily spend >100k a year, trapping them in the rat race until they retire. 

[SharperDingaan]

The US going to sh1te is not a bad forecast; but the reality is that we can only proactively react. The long straddle, the swing trade, BTC, etc. Tools that are worth mastering.

 

There is no point to 'winning', if after the fact ... you are forced to live in a shit environment. Mastering BTC is about ability to move wealth around the world, despite capital controls imposed by central banks.

 

Anxiety is one thing, but turning it to advantage puts it back under your control ..... not venting. The vehicle is ability to make volatility your friend.

 

We aren't fans of Orange Boy, but his disruption has been very profitable. Punchcard opportunity, particularly if there is a Kennedy moment tomorrow.

 

Best of luck

 

SD

 

Edited Wednesday at 01:41 PM by SharperDingaan

[Gregmal]

7 hours ago, influx said:

 

Okay. I am sorry, but I am not sure what are you watching? You are talking about cheerleaders and sort of saying the price is right because it is the market price and cheerleaders were wrong in the past. I read the other posts as well of yours (back and forth with @kab60).

I understand why the price may be right at the moment, but love to know why you think this price is right in the next 3-6-12 months?

"What would cause you to change your mind? Do you have any parameters / variables that you are watching, assuming you are following this closely? "

I am not talking about the long-term. I am bearish medium to long-term. All sorts of supply or workarounds will be put in place. There is a sequence risk though (to the price).

 

Facts are:

1. Jawboning (and/or managing the futures market). Why would they do that if there is no issue and the price is fine?

2. SPR releases because there is a supply problem. This is a temp fix.

3. Is it not the first time we have a supply risk and issue of this size? 

I'm not really looking to make forecasts off a short term guessing game. The only paths to "much higher oil" seem to be based on the prevailing notion that "it should just be higher". "Higher" ignoring that oil is already "way higher" in response to "reason oil should be higher", and that historically, going back decades, these super spikes, even if they occur, are generally short lived. 

 

Additionally, is it not believed that every major and minor oil producer right now is not chomping at the bit to get every ounce they can out of the ground at these prices? Once the SOH issue is resolved it seems really obvious oil prices are absolutely going to tank. Probably lower than pre war even. In between? We ARE already elevated. Of course in the short run anything can go anywhere, but Im not sure why anyone would predicate their investment outlook on "maybe we spike to 200 briefly over the next 3-6 months before returning to normal levels".

[Cor]

7 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

The US going to sh1te is not a bad forecast; but the reality is that we can only proactively react. The long straddle, the swing trade, BTC, etc. Tools that are worth mastering.

 

There is no point to 'winning', if after the fact ... you are forced to live in a shit environment. Mastering BTC is about ability to move wealth around the world, despite capital controls imposed by central banks.

 

Anxiety is one thing, but turning it to advantage puts it back under your control ..... not venting. The vehicle is ability to make volatility your friend.

 

We aren't fans of Orange Boy, but his disruption has been very profitable. Punchcard opportunity, particularly if there is a Kennedy moment tomorrow.

 

Best of luck

 

SD

 

For those of us less familiar with the Kennedy era and stocks at that time, what exactly are suggesting by “Kennedy moment” in the context of  Mr. Market?

Edited Wednesday at 07:42 PM by Cor

[yesman182]

19 minutes ago, Cor said:

For those of us less familiar with the Kennedy era and stocks at that time, what exactly are suggesting by “Kennedy moment” in the context of  Mr. Market?

i assume he is referring to be assassinated 

[SharperDingaan]

1 hour ago, Cor said:

For those of us less familiar with the Kennedy era and stocks at that time, what exactly are suggesting by “Kennedy moment” in the context of  Mr. Market?

 

1963 assassination of John F Kennedy, the US president at the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_John_F._Kennedy

 

No more Trump, no more tweets, no more disruption, no more MAGA, yada, yada ..... in an instant.

US indices drop violently, then rebound quickly to well above previous levels ..... as the world processes the implications.

 

Celebrations in the worlds streets, and global market contagion, feeding back into the rebound. The very normal reaction when dictators are deposed. Might be less celebration in the US (Home Land Security/ICE presence) .... but not in the rest of the world.

 

Black Swan punchcard opportunity.

 

SD

Edited Wednesday at 08:58 PM by SharperDingaan

[73 Reds]

9 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

 

1963 assassination of John F Kennedy, the US president at the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_John_F._Kennedy

 

No more Trump, no more tweets, no more disruption, no more MAGA, yada, yada ..... in an instant.

US indices drop violently, then rise as the world processes the implications.

 

SD

Hmm, for someone who prides himself on the law of probabilities, you seem to spend a lot of time focusing on an extreme long shot.

[SharperDingaan]

14 hours ago, 73 Reds said:

Hmm, for someone who prides himself on the law of probabilities, you seem to spend a lot of time focusing on an extreme long shot.

 

Nah .... we're just ensuring that we have the tail risks covered  Low probability, high impact events, cheap to maintain; but Lenny ...... if it comes to pass  ..... despite best efforts, a tax bill greater than the last decade of salary and bonus combined. 

 

Shitty way to make a buck, but this is Trump, and no different to any other dictator. He'd appreciate it!

 

SD

 

Edited 17 hours ago by SharperDingaan