influx

Referenced by Doomberg and few others. Bearish view: https://jj745.substack.com/p/a-personal-note-to-a-reader

Tank bottom questioned. He says this is the largest supply disruption. Both can be true for a period of time

Okay. I am sorry, but I am not sure what are you watching? You are talking about cheerleaders and sort of saying the price is right because it is the market price and cheerleaders were wrong in the past. I read the other posts as well of yours (back and forth with @kab60). I understand why the price may be right at the moment, but love to know why you think this price is right in the next 3-6-12 months? "What would cause you to change your mind? Do you have any parameters / variables that you are watching, assuming you are following this closely? " I am not talking about the long-term. I am bearish medium to long-term. All sorts of supply or workarounds will be put in place. There is a sequence risk though (to the price). Facts are: 1. Jawboning (and/or managing the futures market). Why would they do that if there is no issue and the price is fine? 2. SPR releases because there is a supply problem. This is a temp fix. 3. Is it not the first time we have a supply risk and issue of this size?

Actually, let me ask you a question then: What would cause you to change your mind? Do you have any parameters / variables that you are watching, assuming you are following this closely? Please let me know. Thanks.

Could be

Oh, I keep asking all the time and we don't know for certain why that is. I don't and most of my explanations are ex post. However, we'll find out. What is your response to "why isn't oil higher" ?

100% including Iran Buying at discounted prices I am just wondering why Chinese imports are low, assuming that is correct? Few possibilities: 1. Currently buying at discounted prices and re-selling at higher price. Buy low sell high. Replenish later. High chance. 2. Currently not buying and helping others. Low chance. 3. Something I don't know?

I think there will be no deal, more pain required from both sides. Re Exxon, read this, this is all you need to read: https://www.hfir.com/p/public-we-are-going-full-speed-into They have a couple of more public articles. Are they roughly right? I think so. What's the risks? 1. China floods the market . Low chance. 2. Price discovery doesn't work. Medium. 3. There is something else NOBODY but Trump/USA knows. Low. If that was the case, he wouldn't have stopped, looking for alternatives, etc.

Spot on I've been thinking along those line as well and for some time, but I've been wrong in the interim (judging by the oil price) It'll go higher if there is demand and they stop jawboning the market (to incentivize higher production). Otherwise I am not so sure price discovery returns but I haven't sold my oil equities yet. The supply situation is certainly not bearish. I'll meet Trump on the other side in a month or three or so. Re the manipulation: they have incentives to prevent a spike. That's all I need to know. I don't know how they do it (Japan, sell/loan from SPR and sell into market, etc)

Yeah I read it too... I was listening some pods today (as usual). 1. This one was is a wild one especially about why Trump wants the nuclear dust and how she sees the situation (4D chess is my interpretation): https://macrovoices.podbean.com/e/macrovoices-534-dr-pippa-malmgren-superpower-war-or-superpower-hug/ My read: she is bullish on Trump. I have to entertain all sides. 2. https://competentinvestor.com/will-spacex-ipo-mark-the-market-top/ I respect Kevin - he is really balanced and is explaining things really well. I have an interesting remark / summary: He is kind of saying the world is probably right in not caring about oil (so the price may be right; even though the supply situation is an issue, it's not crowded), yet he says semis is likely to end in tears (because very crowded, expensive, etc); so oil is not crowded but he is not bullish either; with semis he is not bullish because it is crowded and expensive. Well that was my read. I guess you can have it both ways

Yeah, the fact China imports so much oil and has a huge storage tells me oil is really important to them. So, China's actions disagree with you. Yes, they use Coal for electricity. That's smart. In the long-term you could be right - I am not going there.

Yes, that's very important oil price + crack spread. I am a generalist too but have learnt a lot more about the oil market over the past 6 years (since covid). I think @kab60 is right in saying "I agree with a lot of different views in this thread and think it's possible that a number of them can be true at the same time. ". My summary: 1. The USA and Japan intervene in the markets. Maybe others too. I am surprised the crack spread is not jawboned / managed as well That may be harder because it is physical or something else? I guess that's where the SPRs help. 2. They all use the SPRs. 3. The constant jawboning / volatility has slowed the futures trading (leverage, margin increase, and all that). 4. Most of the futures liquidity is in the front 3 to 6 months, therefore not much price discovery in the backend of the curve, especially 2027 (via Art Berman) 5. There is some demand destruction (due to price and oil not being available) 6. Various other items: Russia may be selling more, Iran sells, re-routing, other unknown workarounds, China not importing less (weird ?!), etc. Bottom line, I am still bullish but more cautious / skeptical. I think the following is a real BEARISH possibility in the next 3 or more months: they will manage the oil futures as they have done so far, while more demand destruction is happening because oil is increasingly unavailable which helps keep the price from spiking. Markets don't work?! What do you guys think about this?

Indeed. The hardest part is probably the waiting and having patience. I am wondering if we may see a Biden-like moment (the Trump debate and the common knowledge; the emperor is naked). Extend and pretend Who knows.

Yeah, okay, fair enough. Understand now. Thanks.

Okay, sorry, but I am not sure I follow you, I am re-reading your original comment: "Gas that is way cheaper than it should be ...." plus "Even if zero new shale wells were drilled, the gas supply would increase (15% in this example). Hence, local demand needs to also rise 15% if the local gas price is not to fall; more if new wells are also drilled. " On gas prices: If they don't drill, that's 15% more supply, which is neutral to bearish to me. What about you? If they drill, that's > 15% more supply, which is neutral to more bearish to me. What about you? Did you mean gas prices should be higher because: 1. primarily, more exports are coming 2. maybe an increased coal replacement 3. AI demand (behind the meter or otherwise) ?