Energy Sector

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, SharperDingaan said:

The war will continue until a political solution is found; ceasefires just temporarily 'ice' the problem, not resolve it. The underlying problems themselves can go on for decades; Palestine/Israel being a poster child.

 

The US fleet/air power is ineffective, and stuck in the Gulf until there is a solution. Everyday the midterms get closer and the predictions worse. The greatest energy supply shock in history gets worse.

 

The solution is 3rd party negotiation. It will take time, but the SOH/Red Sea will reopen, and all parties will not get what they wanted. Who won/lost is just spin for the home supporters; tradeable headlines.  

 

The conflict has been sold as the Trump/Netanyahu war on Iran; both of them old men, in need of the war continuing over the near term in order to remain in power. Either of them gets assassinated tomorrow, the war is over; turnabout. The mystery is whether the two Ceaser's get taken out by their own people, or somebody else. 

 

SD

 

   

If politics doesn't get in the way of the US pursuing energy independence, this entire hoopla will be a mere footnote in history - at least as far as we are concerned.  It is quite interesting to contemplate a World dependent on North American oil and gas.  Equally interesting to think about what comes of many Middle Eastern countries whose entire subsistence as been oil.  Forced changes could have a beneficial effect for all involved.

[cubsfan]

33 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

The war will continue until a political solution is found; ceasefires just temporarily 'ice' the problem, not resolve it. The underlying problems themselves can go on for decades; Palestine/Israel being a poster child.

 

The US fleet/air power is ineffective, and stuck in the Gulf until there is a solution. Everyday the midterms get closer and the predictions worse. The greatest energy supply shock in history gets worse.

 

The solution is 3rd party negotiation. It will take time, but the SOH/Red Sea will reopen, and all parties will not get what they wanted. Who won/lost is just spin for the home supporters; tradeable headlines.  

 

The conflict has been sold as the Trump/Netanyahu war on Iran; both of them old men, in need of the war continuing over the near term in order to remain in power. Either of them gets assassinated tomorrow, the war is over; turnabout. The mystery is whether the two Ceaser's get taken out by their own people, or somebody else. 

 

SD

 

Iran is on the verge of collapse. No oil exports, no money....No hurry for the USA.

 

So obvious.

[cubsfan]

29 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

If politics doesn't get in the way of the US pursuing energy independence, this entire hoopla will be a mere footnote in history - at least as far as we are concerned.  It is quite interesting to contemplate a World dependent on North American oil and gas.  Equally interesting to think about what comes of many Middle Eastern countries whose entire subsistence as been oil.  Forced changes could have a beneficial effect for all involved.

 

No doubt. New pipelines will be built while Iran is forced to rebuild.  The Gulf States learned their lesson, and found out Iran is a paper tiger terrorist state only.

[influx]

On 4/25/2026 at 1:11 AM, rogermunibond said:

Lol

 

 

All of them are saying higher oil prices are coming

Reading Rory, Pierre, Anas, etc, etc. Art Berman is not.

I understand it's not just about oil prices but the downstream products too.

 

One thing why higher they say is the refilling of the SPRs and the commercial crude storage.

The question I have: Does it have to be refilled ASAP assuming the minimum operational level is not breached? I would think we can wait until we get to an oversupplied market and then start refilling. Anyone with better knowledge or good text to read other than LLMs?

 

Please share

[SharperDingaan]

The US SPR does not have to be refilled immediately; it often goes years between refills, and is typically done to bail out domestic overproduction. Bit different elsewhere where a target 'days of consumption' is maintained, with time between refill often reflecting the issues of the day. 

 

Higher oil prices, relative to the USD 65 that WTI was at pre the Iran war ? Yes.

Relative to the USD 110 that WTI was recently trading at? No.

 

The primary shock is that higher crude prices are NOT going to be just a once and done by 2026 year-end (arbitrary date). They are going to still be here late into 2027; perhaps even beyond, and not restricted to just crude .... across the entire petro-chemical chain as well.   

 

The secondary shocks are the coming changes in energy investment; security of o/g supply high on the list, electric substitution for o/g right behind it. Russian and Gulf supply diversification, windmills over gas imports, electric cars over ICE. Very good for both Canada and China, not so much for the US.

 

To save on transportation costs, trucking is permanently moving to gas/hybrid and driver-less. The most reliable manufactures of those vehicles are not American, and China is coming up very quickly. Shocks are coming to US manufacturing as well. 

 

But .... no problem .... new all time highs routinely hit every month 

 

SD

 

 

 

 

Edited April 26 by SharperDingaan

[influx]

59 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

The US SPR does not have to refilled immediately; it often goes years between refills, and is typically done to bail out domestic overproduction. Bit different elsewhere where a target 'days of consumption' is maintained, with time between refill often reflecting the issues of the day. 

 

Higher oil prices, relative to the USD 65 that WTI was at pre the Iran war ? Yes.

Relative to the USD 110 that WTI was recently trading at? No.

 

The primary shock is that higher crude prices are NOT going to be just a once and done by 2026 year-end (arbitrary date). They are going to still be here late into 2027; perhaps even beyond, and not restricted to just crude .... across the entire petro-chemical chain as well.   

 

The secondary shocks are the coming changes in energy investment; security of o/g supply high on the list, electric substitution for o/g right behind it. Russian and Gulf supply diversification, windmills over gas imports, electric cars over ICE. Very good for both Canada and China, not so much for the US.

 

To save on transportation costs, trucking is permanently moving to gas/hybrid and driver-less. The most reliable manufactures of those vehicles are not American, and China is coming up very quickly. Shocks are coming to US manufacturing as well. 

 

But .... no problem .... new all time highs routinely hit every month 

 

SD

 

 

 

 

 

So what is the fair estimate for:

1. 2026

2. 2027

Is it the futures prices or dated brent or somewhere in between or we'll see?

 

Attached is the tweet

https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2047369251111960963?s=20https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2047369251111960963?s=20https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2047369251111960963?s=20

 

oil - art berman.pdf

[Stuart D]

7 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Iran is on the verge of collapse. No oil exports, no money....No hurry for the USA.

 

So obvious.

Is Iran running out of money? I read somewhere (probably twitter) they had months of oil already on the water - it should keep the cash flowing for quite some time.

[ourkid8]

7 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Iran is on the verge of collapse. No oil exports, no money....No hurry for the USA.

 

So obvious.

Iran continues to get their oil export to china whereas the rest of the world suffers.  (US is not blocking their ships)
 

Please see Lloyd’s list which is a reputable source for maritime shipping details  
 

 

Edited April 25 by ourkid8

[ourkid8]

10 minutes ago, Stuart D said:

Is Iran running out of money? I read somewhere (probably twitter) they had months of oil already on the water - it should keep the cash flowing for quite some time.

This blockade is a facade for Trump to save face to his American people that he is inflicting pain. Iranian ships continue to sail past the so called “blockade”.  - it looks like he is bringing back celebrity apprentice  

 

take a look at the Lloyd’s list article I just posted above. 

Edited April 25 by ourkid8

[cubsfan]

43 minutes ago, Stuart D said:

Is Iran running out of money? I read somewhere (probably twitter) they had months of oil already on the water - it should keep the cash flowing for quite some time.

 

Why is the economy in freefall, currency collapsing and inflation exploding?

 

Would you lend them money?

[cubsfan]

54 minutes ago, Stuart D said:

Is Iran running out of money? I read somewhere (probably twitter) they had months of oil already on the water - it should keep the cash flowing for quite some time.

 

The gap has forced the government to rely increasingly on domestic borrowing.

 

Central bank data show that by November 2025, government debt to the banking system had risen 41 percent from a year earlier, while its debt to the central bank surged 68 percent. Commercial banks’ own borrowing from the central bank rose 63 percent over the same period.

 

In effect, the state has compensated for lost oil income by drawing on the banking system and expanding the money supply. Liquidity—a key driver of inflation and currency depreciation—rose more than 40 percent in November 2025 compared with a year earlier.

 

The consequences are visible in the exchange rate. The rial has depreciated roughly 75 percent since February last year.

 

Taken together, declining oil revenues, restricted access to export proceeds, record capital flight and rapid monetary expansion are reinforcing one another.

 

The prolonged state of geopolitical limbo appears to be amplifying those pressures, encouraging businesses and elites alike to move assets abroad and leaving the economy increasingly exposed to further instability.

 

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602189530

 

[ourkid8]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Why is the economy in freefall, currency collapsing and inflation exploding?

 

Would you lend them money?

These questions should be in the political thread, please. 

[SharperDingaan]

" So what is the fair estimate for: 1) 2026, 2) 2027

Is it the futures prices or dated Brent or somewhere in between or we'll see? "

 

There isn't one. If there was, there wouldn't be the extreme price differences between Dubai crude and spot (inability to deliver, vs the quality and transportation cost differentials).

 

Best estimate is the current futures curve; utter sh1te  Actual vs future prediction, is well known for its inaccuracy ... particularly around oil. 

 

Story lines need numbers ! .... give me a f****** number to sell  

Or .... recognise the opportunity in busted story telling 

 

SD 

 

Edited April 26 by SharperDingaan

[Spekulatius]

12 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said:

" So what is the fair estimate for: 1) 2026, 2) 2027

Is it the futures prices or dated Brent or somewhere in between or we'll see? "

 

There isn't one. If there was. there wouldn't be the extreme price differences between Dubai crude and spot (inability to deliver, vs the quality and transportation cost differentials).

 

Best estimate is the current futures curve; utter sh1te  Actual vs future prediction, is well known for its inaccuracy ... particularly around oil. 

 

Story lines need numbers ! .... give me a f****** number to sell  

Or .... recognise the opportunity in busted story telling 

 

SD 

 

Yes, I have seen delivered crude going for up to $120 a barrel depending on quality and location. It’s wild, but the spot markets prices at given hubs don’t fully reflect what is going on.

There were always differentials but I don’t think they were ever as large as currently. Certain countries can’t get the crude they need and LNG in some cases it’s empty gas stations and lights out (Philippines,Thailand etc).

 

There is always money to be made somewhere:

https://thediplomat.com/2026/04/thailands-fuel-smuggling-problem-surges-into-view/

[SharperDingaan]

3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

There is always money to be made somewhere:

https://thediplomat.com/2026/04/thailands-fuel-smuggling-problem-surges-into-view/

 

Same as the drug trade; there is always fuel available .....

it's just the price and volume required 

 

SD

[Stuart D]

On 4/23/2026 at 9:06 AM, Stuart D said:

 

From this chart +1b barrels (7,800mb pre-covid compared to 8,800mb peak covid), was enough to send oil to $0/bbl.

 

At some point the lower inventories will send prices way higher. Is that point -1b barrels? (6,800mb?). I have no idea.

Shouldn’t this chart alone (new inventory low’s) be sending crude prices to all time high’s?

And the counter case? Iran immediately surrenders and guarantees permanent SoH peace, the US and NATO sweep all mines, production restarts and increased global production immediately restarts and restocks inventories?

 

@cubsfan, appreciate the pushback. My timeline is very biased towards ‘oil prices will be higher’, so im keen to hear other views.

[influx]

3 hours ago, Stuart D said:

Shouldn’t this chart alone (new inventory low’s) be sending crude prices to all time high’s?

And the counter case? Iran immediately surrenders and guarantees permanent SoH peace, the US and NATO sweep all mines, production restarts and increased global production immediately restarts and restocks inventories?

 

@cubsfan, appreciate the pushback. My timeline is very biased towards ‘oil prices will be higher’, so im keen to hear other views.

 

 

Same bias = My timeline is very biased towards ‘oil prices will be higher’

and I keep searching for a bear case so I can hold and not sell. 

 

Bear case 1: I agree, assuming Iran surrenders (allow me to say it's western propaganda) 

But, I just don't see an acceptable peace deal and what it looks like for both sides. 

Unless Putin and/or Xi tell them to surrender because ....(there is something we don't know). However, incentives of all involved are telling me otherwise (except for USA). Probably not the the best thread for this discussion.

 

Bear case 2: Demand destruction arrives faster and/or sooner than an increase in the oil price. (add export controls too) Most of the oil analysts, independent or otherwise (JPM, Goldman, etc) are saying the oil price should have risen (or will rise).  The worrying thing is they keep moving the target  

I don't have the experience or industry knowledge so I don't know if this is possible. I guess, what I am saying is supply/demand curve and the pricing of the marginal barrels doesn't work in this case.

 

I don't see anything else.

 

So, I am still bullish and evaluating on a daily basis.

[influx]

12 hours ago, SharperDingaan said:

There isn't one. If there was, there wouldn't be the extreme price differences between Dubai crude and spot (inability to deliver, vs the quality and transportation cost differentials).

 

Best estimate is the current futures curve; utter sh1te  Actual vs future prediction, is well known for its inaccuracy ... particularly around oil. 

 

Fair enough  

[SharperDingaan]

The near term bear case is lower prices relative to yesterday; at best, maybe -10%, and for a very short time only. Simply 'cause it will take time for already loaded ships already in the SOH to reach their destinations .... and until they arrive, everybody has to continue bidding up for the very limited non SOH supply. 

 

The longer term bear case is lower prices from permanent substitution and new non SOH supply. Years away, as it will take time to build out the required incremental egress infrastructure ... for supply to again overwhelm demand.

 

The MOMO bear case is a panic selloff that drags o/g down with it. Most everyone would simply use the volatility to rotate into o/g, pushing hard against the selloff.  

 

SD

 

[rogermunibond]

Anyone an opinion on Shell's NA transactions?  Selling Permian assets to COP in 2021 for $9B and then buying Montney assets in 2026 for $16B.  It seems like they did well selling Delaware basin acreage as COP is looking to divest certain Permian assets acquired from Concho and Shell for $2B.

 

Montney assets have higher oil ratio and are long lived production right?

[treasurehunt]

UAE to exit OPEC on May 1: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/uae-opec-oil-iran.html

 

I think this should put some downward pressure on oil prices long term. It seems the UAE wants to increase production from the current 3.5 million barrels per day to 5 million.

[Dalal.Holdings]

50 minutes ago, treasurehunt said:

UAE to exit OPEC on May 1: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/28/uae-opec-oil-iran.html

 

I think this should put some downward pressure on oil prices long term. It seems the UAE wants to increase production from the current 3.5 million barrels per day to 5 million.

OPEC was already nearly a free for all --- this could spill into more members leaving and vastly increased production...

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-28/italy-s-eni-expands-venezuela-push-with-orinoco-oil-deal

 

Long term oil case looking more and more bearish:

 

Quote

 

Eni SpA agreed to restart an oil project in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt, deepening its presence as US sanctions ease.

The Italian company signed an agreement with state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela SA to resume work at the Junín-5 venture, after a meeting between Chief Executive Officer Claudio Descalziand interim President Delcy Rodríguez in Caracas, Eni said Tuesday.

 

Quote

 

Junín-5, in which PDVSA holds 60% and Eni 40%, contains about 35 billion barrels of oil in place and had stalled for years amid sanctions and payment disputes.

 

 

[Dalal.Holdings]

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/united-arab-emirates-exits-opec-oil-fracking-iran-2fee8850?mod=hp_opin_pos_3

 

Quote

The U.S. produced 13.2 million barrels a day in January, up from 5.4 million in January 2010. Production over the last two decades has also climbed in Canada, Guyana and Brazil. U.S. fracking pioneer Harold Hamm is making a big bet that Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale deposit could become as productive as the Permian basin in Texas.

https://worldoil.com/news/2026/4/24/milei-incentives-accelerate-12-billion-vaca-muerta-shale-oil-project/

 

Quote

Milei incentives accelerate $12-billion Vaca Muerta shale oil project

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2026/04/08/latam-argentina-record-oil-production-levels/5061775658998/

 

Quote

April 8 (UPI) -- Argentina reached record oil production levels, with output climbing to 874,000 barrels per day, a 15.9% increase from a year earlier, a report by consulting firm RICSA ALyC states.

 

And the world shall have MOAR oil...

[Stuart D]

20m bbl draw last week. Not sustainable, so something’s got to give.