73 Reds Posted April 8 Posted April 8 3 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: +1 Most people will just never get that much of this is just time (short vs long) arbitrage, project management (limited time engagement), and selecting a boat fit for purpose (don't always need a Suncor). Most will also never get that the rest of it is primarily risk management; keeping the funny money, always taking money off the table, and dissipating the rising toxicity. Treat it as a business, and a lot of things fall into place. Given that most are utter sh1te at building businesses ... the poor success rate should not be unexpected, and the more bunnies the better SD True, but the success rate of building a successful business is probably a lot higher than actively trading stocks or commodity futures.
SharperDingaan Posted April 8 Posted April 8 2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: True, but the success rate of building a successful business is probably a lot higher than actively trading stocks or commodity futures. Not really; it's more a match of the technical (CFA, CA, MBA), fit with the industry of choice, and opportunity/experience. Lot of good builders are terrible at the investment business, simply 'cause it's a poor industry match. Lot of o/g treasurers are good at o/g portfolio management, simply 'cause it's a better industry match. Thereafter, it's just a choice as to whether to be public or private. SD
73 Reds Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Not really; it's more a match of the technical (CFA, CA, MBA), fit with the industry of choice, and opportunity/experience. Lot of good builders are terrible at the investment business, simply 'cause it's a poor industry match. Lot of o/g treasurers are good at o/g portfolio management, simply 'cause it's a better industry match. Thereafter, it's just a choice as to whether to be public or private. SD LOL, you must know different CFA/CA/MBA types than me. The ones I know are mediocre, at best at managing large sums of money. Probably has a lot to do with liability to their clients but they often adhere to standard protocol with their own money, which never made any sense to me. When you have an advantage, use it. Edited April 8 by 73 Reds missed line
SharperDingaan Posted April 8 Posted April 8 (edited) 7 hours ago, 73 Reds said: LOL, you must know different CFA/CA/MBA types than me. The ones I know are mediocre, at best at managing large sums of money. Probably has a lot to do with liability to their clients but they often adhere to standard protocol with their own money, which never made any sense to me. When you have an advantage, use it. Most every CFA/CA will start off in the ‘wealth management’/big four auditors. Resume building, articles completion, assisted by those with ‘connections’, and fired at the end of the current economic cycle. Everybody in their mid to late 20’s, arrogant, and mostly mediocre. The movies feedstock. The down cycle is typically used to go back to school, get the MBA, and wrap up anything outstanding around the CFA/CA. The more mature, or those wishing for family, then hire into the corporate/government world … and accumulating experience traps everyone into their industry silos. The better mediocre live .... simply 'cause the best went elsewhere Time goes by, cream rises, and eventually there’s a golden handshake. Thereafter, it’s often a better gig, to just be your own portfolio manager, concentrated in your old industry. The ‘retired’ CFA/CA/MBA with the same skill sets, similar experience, but no institutional restrictions, AUM pressure, sociopaths to deal with, or whining share holders . Freedom! …. but only if it’s treated as a business, whilst you are able. SD Edited April 8 by SharperDingaan
SharperDingaan Posted April 8 Posted April 8 Have to think that WTI is going to bounce in the USD 90-110 range, until the US drops the hammer on Netanyahu, and the Israelis stop the fighting in Lebanon. The deal applies to both the US and Israel and includes Lebanon .... no matter whether the Israelis agree or not. Lot of ways it could go, and an opportunity https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/8/us-iran-ceasefire-deal-what-are-the-terms-and-whats-next SD
Pelagic Posted April 9 Posted April 9 Iran targeted the E-W pipeline yesterday, after the ceasefire was announced. Strange that perhaps their most significant hit on infrastructure in the region came after the ceasefire announcement.
rkbabang Posted April 10 Posted April 10 On 4/7/2026 at 7:19 PM, Dalal.Holdings said: Very simple then in Mafioso language: The Strait will be open during peace time because the 5 families of New York (USA, Europe, China, Japan, India) want it that way. "War is bad for business." All you need to do to completely understand international politics/relations is to imagine a world under anarchy with different Mafia families/criminal organizations (who get their money from shaking down the people and businesses who happen to be in their claimed territory by running massive protection rackets) who each control a portion of the available territory on the planet. How do these various organizations deal with one another? BTW, this isn't "like" how the world works, it is how the world works.
tede02 Posted April 11 Posted April 11 (edited) On 4/9/2026 at 10:36 AM, rogermunibond said: Lol LOL. . There is SO MUCH irony in politics it's unbelievable. I'm constantly amused. Watch as the guy who hates electric cars, wind turbines and solar resurect sales growth of every one of them. Edited April 11 by tede02
SharperDingaan Posted April 12 Posted April 12 (edited) It really is a time to make volatility your friend Q1 earnings announcements and dividend record dates coming up. Lots of excitement when after-tax cash flow comes in ahead of budget; particularly the CAD small to mid-caps. The first M&A announcement also locking in the current futures curve . Everybody working hard on opening the SOH; only the how is in dispute. When it opens crude prices drop rapidly; but average price rises, every additional week closed. Ship owners incentivised to not run the straight (insurance will replace a sunk ship, but it will take years to replace it, while missing out on the current highest freight rates in history). Or, pay the toll, and not have your ships return to the SOH (ships now available to exploit the current high freight rates elsewhere on the seas). One day a week of optimism (straight is opening!), one day of pessimism (talks failed, again!), three days of blah (nothing really changed) . Holdings at < 50% of 'norm' are a bet on lower prices, holdings at > 50% of 'norm' are a bet on higher prices; higher the crude price, the higher the share price. It's happening! Raise holdings in the sell off to the neutral 50%. It's an utter sh1te show! Sell holdings into the price rise, and down to 25% Record dates and earnings. Blah days are good .... do nothing! Rinse and repeat, weekly. Not what many want to hear ...... Good luck. SD Edited April 12 by SharperDingaan
Sweet Posted April 12 Posted April 12 26 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: It really is a time to make volatility your friend Q1 earnings announcements and dividend record dates coming up. Lots of excitement when after-tax cash flow comes in ahead of budget; particularly the CAD small to mid-caps. The first M&A announcement also locking in the current futures curve . Everybody working hard on opening the SOH; only the how is in dispute. When it opens crude prices drop rapidly; but average price rises, every additional week closed. Ship owners incentivised to not run the straight (insurance will replace a sunk ship, but it will take years to replace it, while missing out on the current highest freight rates in history). Or, pay the toll, and not have your ships return to the SOH (ships now available to exploit the current high freight rates elsewhere on the seas). One day a week of optimism (straight is opening!), one day of pessimism (talks failed, again!), three days of blah (nothing really changed . Holdings at < 50% of 'norm' are a bet on lower prices, holdings at > 50% of 'norm' are a bet on higher prices; higher the crude price, the higher the share price. It's happening! Raise holdings in the sell off to the neutral 50%. It's an utter sh1te show! Sell holdings into the price rise, and down to 25% Record dates and earnings. Blah days are good .... do nothing! Rinse and repeat, weekly. Not what many want to hear ...... Good luck. SD I hope you bought, like you said you would, on Friday.
SharperDingaan Posted April 12 Posted April 12 US gas prices continue to rise ... lowest price is now USD 3.40/gallon. The failed Iran/US talks, and the now US blockade of the SOH, still to come https://www.gasbuddy.com/usa SD
SharperDingaan Posted April 12 Posted April 12 36 minutes ago, Sweet said: I hope you bought, like you said you would, on Friday. We're back at 50% . Mostly 'cause both Q1 earnings releases, record dates, and M&A are close. We also recognised that it took Kissinger 3 yrs to successfully conclude his negotiations; Vance doing it over a weekend ????? The thrashings of a drowning man just took another 1.2M boe/d off the market (Iran's current egress). How do you think that goes on Monday ?? ..... before there are more Saudi E-W pipeline damage curtailments from drone attacks . SD
Gregmal Posted April 12 Posted April 12 1 hour ago, james22 said: So is this fake news, or is there some explaining to do as far as why this is being completely ignored by the media? At best this would again indicate active collusion to present a negative narrative.
cubsfan Posted April 12 Posted April 12 1 hour ago, james22 said: Totally predictable and common sense. Even the Europeans are running to Big Daddy. Oh, the irony...
Sweet Posted April 12 Posted April 12 The market can only rebalance so much. America doesn’t produce enough oil to compensate for the oil lost and it can’t ramp it up that quickly. It also doesn’t produce the right grade of oil to replace the mostly heavy oil prevented from leaving the Middle East. The increase exports of US oil and products ultimately means higher US prices, not something Trump is going like.
SharperDingaan Posted April 12 Posted April 12 (edited) 49 minutes ago, Sweet said: The market can only rebalance so much. America doesn’t produce enough oil to compensate for the oil lost and it can’t ramp it up that quickly. It also doesn’t produce the right grade of oil to replace the mostly heavy oil prevented from leaving the Middle East. The increase exports of US oil and products ultimately means higher US prices, not something Trump is going like. Great for a Canada, with its safe supply of greener heavy! Seldom mentioned is that Canada also gets an immediate boost ... if the current 70% full Afrimax tankers (harbour depth restriction) only have to travel a short distance, to transfer at sea into VLCC's in international waters off Vancouver Island. 4 Afrimax to 1 VLCC which then does the haul to Asia ... materially improving logistics . SD Edited April 12 by SharperDingaan
SharperDingaan Posted April 12 Posted April 12 2 hours ago, Gregmal said: So is this fake news, or is there some explaining to do as far as why this is being completely ignored by the media? At best this would again indicate active collusion to present a negative narrative. The media's 'sources', only feed what they want published The reporter 'verifies' against an independent source (the 'sources' beer buddy in the next building), gets the same story, and we're golden! When the trading desks want the story changed .... a new feed. Great system SD
Sweet Posted April 12 Posted April 12 25 minutes ago, SharperDingaan said: Great for a Canada, with its safe supply of greener heavy! Seldom mentioned is that Canada also gets an immediate boost ... if the current 70% full Afrimax tankers (harbour depth restriction) only have to travel a short distance, to transfer at sea into VLCC's in international waters off Vancouver Island. 4 Afrimax to 1 VLCC which then does the haul to Asia ... materially improving logistics . SD Canada can load at the Gulf of Mexico. They are probably the biggest winners in all this because it’s their crude which is needed.
Warner Posted April 12 Posted April 12 Canadian SCO has been at around 10-15 usd to WTI and crack spreads are double average. Prices now will elevated for a long time even after the straight opens. Every week is another 90M barrel deficit. SU, IMO and CNQ will report great numbers. CNQ has some debt to retire so SU and IMO will out all additional FFF into buybacks. Only downside is we are going into turnaround season.
rogermunibond Posted April 13 Posted April 13 When it was a short term shutdown, no reason for VLCCs to reroute to Houston and Gulf Coast. Now the law of one price starts to work. Dated Houston and LLS converge to dated Brent. Gas, diesel, jet fuel prices rise further. How long before there's talk of an export restriction?
Warner Posted April 13 Posted April 13 If this is true they are enroute for the storage inventory in Cushing and the SPR releases. Except for Japan (who will keep it for their domestic refineries) this is the last source of additional oil.
Mephistopheles Posted April 13 Posted April 13 (edited) I still have my November CL futures, now at $78. Day after day, more barrels are taken away from the world. The other thought I've had is that the uncertainty about timing probably has a negative affect on capex (bullish for price). Everything in the short to medium term hinges on the strait and war, which may all resolve in the next day or the next month, nobody knows. So what is the incentive here for growth capex when there is no clarity on the supply shock? Edited April 13 by Mephistopheles
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