Xerxes Posted March 19 Posted March 19 https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-hc-commodities-podcast/id1512721188?i=1000755994424 Unlike financial assets, a central bank can’t be printing molecules of crude or natural gas to stabilize a dislocated market. Are we in a January 2020 moment ? Market complacency leading to a March 2020
Xerxes Posted March 19 Posted March 19 (edited) Gemini : on E-W to take off pressure from Hormuz While the Saudi East-West Pipeline (Petroline) is a massive "safety valve," it only handles a fraction of the total volume that normally transits the Strait of Hormuz. The current situation (as of March 2026) highlights a significant structural gap between what the world needs and what the pipelines can deliver: The Numbers: Pipelines vs. The Strait • Hormuz Flow: In 2025, approximately 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and refined products passed through the Strait. • Total Bypass Capacity: Even with every available pipeline running at "redline" capacity, the maximum bypass across the entire region is only about 6.5 to 8.5 million bpd. Where the Oil Goes (The Bottleneck) Even though the Saudi Petroline has a theoretical "nameplate" capacity of 7 million bpd, it can't replace the Strait for several technical reasons: 1. Refinery vs. Export: About 2 million bpd of that capacity is sucked up by domestic refineries on Saudi Arabia's west coast. This leaves only about 5 million bpd available for international export. 2. The "Yanbu" Bottleneck: The pipeline might move 7 million barrels, but the port of Yanbu (the western terminus) has an effective loading limit of roughly 4.5 million bpd. You can't ship more than the tankers can load. 3. Grade Limitations: The pipeline is primarily configured for Arab Light and Arab Extra Light. Heavier grades or refined products from the Gulf coast still have no easy way out. Edited March 19 by Xerxes
sholland Posted March 20 Posted March 20 (edited) https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Qatar-LNG-Hit-Turns-Into-Multi-Year-Crisis.html 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity offline for 3-5 years. Edited March 20 by sholland
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 20 Posted March 20 The Battle for Hormuz Quote The U.S. and its allies have intensified the battle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sending low-flying attack jets over the sea lanes to blast Iranian naval vessels and Apache helicopters to shoot down Iran’s deadly drones, American military officials said. The stepped-up operation is part of a multistage Pentagon plan to reduce the danger from Iranian armed boats, mines and cruise missiles, which have halted ship traffic through the waterway since early March. If the danger can be reduced, the U.S. could send U.S. warships through the strait and eventually escort vessels in and out of the Persian Gulf. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-war-planes-and-helicopters-kick-off-battle-to-reopen-hormuz-530cdb78 Marines also headed in Will need weeks or so to degrade Iran's capabilities sufficiently
rogermunibond Posted March 20 Posted March 20 The skinny on how much oil can be released from the SPR. Operational floor is 150-160 Mb to preserve the integrity of the salt caverns. https://www.ft.com/content/2b002c54-1f05-4366-a0cd-23dcb4e11f12
SharperDingaan Posted March 20 Posted March 20 (edited) Just in case you weren't sure the US Treasury wasn't heavily manipulating WTI ....... All these premiums in addition to the higher transit costs (distance + tanker rates), and the lower throughput yields from feedstock they really weren't designed to process. "Refiners in Asia are paying huge premiums for crude that could replace some of the supply stuck in the Middle East, with the most suitable grades from Norway and the U.S. being bid at record-high double-digit premiums over Dated Brent." https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Asian-Refiners-Pay-Record-Premiums-for-Non-Middle-East-Crude.html And that SOH opening thing .... All those marines and planes/choppers flying cover and attacking drones .... while your fully loaded US insured tanker/cargo (bomb) is trying to cross without going off ??? Sure .... planning to swap out American crews for the crossing as well ?? Or ... just pay the protection fee ... and switch on the transponder for safe passage. The spiral is accelerating. SD Edited March 20 by SharperDingaan
Lotsofcoke Posted March 20 Posted March 20 21 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said: And now for the Climb Down: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-war-news-2026 Apparently news out today says Trump was permitting Iran to secretly sell oil to help keep gas prices down but the Israelis' attacks on the fields nixed it and infuriated him. There will be ups and downs driven by multiple agendas... but whatever is happening daily - for the foreseeable future - this is a fiasco of epic proportions. And now I am just hearing some Iraqis have attacked a French operated base in Jordan? Bad news all around. For everyone. I suspect Gas will continue to go up in cost. :(
73 Reds Posted March 20 Posted March 20 3 minutes ago, Lotsofcoke said: Apparently news out today says Trump was permitting Iran to secretly sell oil to help keep gas prices down but the Israelis' attacks on the fields nixed it and infuriated him. There will be ups and downs driven by multiple agendas... but whatever is happening daily - for the foreseeable future - this is a fiasco of epic proportions. And now I am just hearing some Iraqis have attacked a French operated base in Jordan? Bad news all around. For everyone. I suspect Gas will continue to go up in cost. :( Bad news? Iran (again) is showing its true colors. If you're in the US you don't benefit from Iranian oil anyway. Is it bad that other countries have to pay more? What if we provide some of the replacement exports? Always two (or more) sides to these issues.
Lotsofcoke Posted March 20 Posted March 20 11 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: Bad news? Iran (again) is showing its true colors. If you're in the US you don't benefit from Iranian oil anyway. Is it bad that other countries have to pay more? What if we provide some of the replacement exports? Always two (or more) sides to these issues. thank goodness I reside in canada...
73 Reds Posted March 20 Posted March 20 1 minute ago, Lotsofcoke said: thank goodness I reside in canada... As opposed to.....?
Lotsofcoke Posted March 20 Posted March 20 5 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: As opposed to.....? anywhere else right now...
73 Reds Posted March 20 Posted March 20 Just now, Lotsofcoke said: anywhere else right now... OK...... why?
Lotsofcoke Posted March 20 Posted March 20 We got plenty of oil.. and we have managed to avoid Armageddon so far...
73 Reds Posted March 20 Posted March 20 2 minutes ago, Lotsofcoke said: We got plenty of oil.. and we have managed to avoid Armageddon so far... Fair enough. We here in the US can say the same. Not trying to pull your chain and Sanjeev paid you high praise. Just looking for a little perspective on your comment.
Lotsofcoke Posted March 20 Posted March 20 High praise? For me? Gee - nice. Where was this praise? I think I missed it....
SharperDingaan Posted March 20 Posted March 20 29 minutes ago, 73 Reds said: OK...... why? Higher O&G exports at higher prices, brings in a lot of cash that Canada could use. Cash going into all kinds of new infrastructure, export diversification/integration, and job creation as those things get built. All with as little US input as possible . Lot of pain, but Orange Boy has been great for us! as we have found a way to make the disruption useful. Whereas for the US ... hard to say the same . SD
Spekulatius Posted March 21 Posted March 21 15 hours ago, 73 Reds said: Bad news? Iran (again) is showing its true colors. If you're in the US you don't benefit from Iranian oil anyway. Is it bad that other countries have to pay more? What if we provide some of the replacement exports? Always two (or more) sides to these issues. Everyone who consumes oil or oil products has to pay more. That includes every consumer in the USA, Canada, Europe, China, India. Yes, the US has their own oil supply so people who own these assets will make more money. We won’t see lines at gas stations, but the same is true in Europe. We just have to pay up more. The biggest losers are the gulf states, China, India and developing countries where people have less buying power and hence see a proportionally larger impact.
73 Reds Posted March 21 Posted March 21 20 minutes ago, Spekulatius said: Everyone who consumes oil or oil products has to pay more. That includes every consumer in the USA, Canada, Europe, China, India. Yes, the US has their own oil supply so people who own these assets will make more money. We won’t see lines at gas stations, but the same is true in Europe. We just have to pay up more. The biggest losers are the gulf states, China, India and developing countries where people have less buying power and hence see a proportionally larger impact. Right; the biggest losers should lead the way in crafting a solution.
Libs Posted March 21 Posted March 21 On 3/19/2026 at 12:31 PM, Xerxes said: I made my 2025 retirement contribution all in one shot during last year Liberation Day in April and all of it on CNQ. Insignificant compared to my overall portfolio, but still need to do my annual contribution, Nice. Well played.
Xerxes Posted March 21 Posted March 21 7 hours ago, Spekulatius said: Yes, the US has their own oil supply so people who own these assets will make more money. We won’t see lines at gas stations, but the same is true in Europe. We just have to pay up more. i will pay my share of “ayatollah tax” at the pump and jet fuel for travel if structurally higher prices lead to more redundancy being built into the energy ecosystem, I am all for it. No matter how this Gulf War III* ends risk premium on the crude is back ! * placeholder name until Trump tell us the name for the war.
Xerxes Posted March 21 Posted March 21 18 minutes ago, Libs said: Nice. Well played. That worked well with a high IRR I have Exxon for a full decade now, that one took its time. Strathcona thanks to the folks here, which I was about to eject, but kept and South Bow; the owner of Keystone
rogermunibond Posted March 23 Posted March 23 Thailand, SK, Taiwan, Bangladesh are all moving to restart coal power plants. Anyone long New Hope and Whitehaven Coal? Seems like it's early days on an Australian coal bull market as Qatar LNG is out for years.
SharperDingaan Posted March 23 Posted March 23 (edited) Iranian conditions for ending the war ... https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/senior-iranian-official-outlines-conditions-for-ending-war Tehran has outlined six key conditions as part of what the official described as a new legal and strategic framework: Guarantees to prevent the recurrence of war Closure of US military bases in the region Payment of compensation to the Islamic Republic An end to wars across all regional fronts Establishing a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz Prosecution and extradition of media figures deemed hostile to Iran Have to think the media figures are Netanyahu and Trump, prosecuted for war crimes; an eye (Khomeini) for an eye (Netanyahu/Trump), ultimately dropped for an end to wars across all regional fronts. Guarantees to prevent the recurrence of war, and a new legal framework for the Strait of Hormuz, rolled into one under a coalition type umbrella. Orange Boy goes home, US military bases in the region are closed, a SOH transit fee compensates the Islamic Republic, and the Iranian nuclear program continues under a Chinese/Russian umbrella (adults in the room). Spin it as you like. Noteworthy is that Netanyahu/Trump are also a material problem within both Israel and the US, that all would like disposed of (bath tub, tall building, etc). Perhaps what cannot be done at home, can be done as a war crime prosecution at the Hague instead ???? Establish the process .... Putin and others to follow . Very shrewd, and right up there with the best. Interesting times. SD Edited March 23 by SharperDingaan
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now