Cryptocurrencies

[roughlyright]

If you bought #Bitcoin

 

1 day ago: Up 14%

1 week ago: Up 41%

1 month ago: Up 61%

3 months ago: Up 222%

6 months ago: Up 240%

1 year ago: Up 108%

2 years ago: Up 400%

3 years ago: Up 1840%

4 years ago: Up 5300%

5 years ago: Up 2470%

6 years ago: Up 12800%

[DooDiligence]

If worms had machine guns, birds wouldn't fuck with them.

 

Tell me how you would have known?

[rkbabang]

How could you not have known the moment you understood what Bitcoin was?  If you don't get it yet, you will still be asking "how could you have known?" 20 or 30 years from now when people who bought under $100k are rich.

 

Oh, and you are correct about worms with machine guns. Not seeing how Bitcoin is still worth only a small fraction of what it will be worth is like knowing that worms are acquiring machine guns and not understanding that the birds are  screwed.

[Gregmal]

How could you not have known the moment you understood what Bitcoin was?  If you don't get it yet, you will still be asking "how could you have known?" 20 or 30 years from now when people who bought under $100k are rich.

 

Oh, and you are correct about worms with machine guns. Not seeing how Bitcoin is still worth only a small fraction of what it will be worth is like knowing that worms are acquiring machine guns and not understanding that the birds are  screwed.

 

Seth Klarman, one among many underperforming value investors, with a denigrating and condescending tone around his remarks, called Bitcoin a "trading sardine". In fact here is what he had to say: 

 

"There is the old story about the market craze in sardine trading when the sardines disappeared from their traditional waters in Monterey, California. The commodity traders bid them up and the price of a can of sardines soared. One day a buyer decided to treat himself to an expensive meal and actually opened a can and started eating. He immediately became ill and told the seller the sardines were no good. The seller said, 'You don't understand. These are not eating sardines, they are trading sardines.'

 

Like sardine traders, many financial-market participants are attracted to speculation, never bothering to taste the sardines they are trading. ... trading in and of itself can be exciting and, as long as the market is rising, lucrative. But essentially it is speculating, not investing. You may find a buyer at a higher price — a greater fool — or you may not, in which case you yourself are the greater fool."

 

Meanwhile, yesterday, Klarman got a life raft when Abbvie decided to acquire Allergan, a position he found to be more to his liking. Nevertheless, on his "value investment", Mr. Klarman is still said to have lost over $100M as his basis was significantly higher than the acquisition price. Prior to the acquisition, Mr. Klarman was likely down 30-40% on his AGN position.

 

What I find hilarious is the premise that "OMG DONT BUY THIS ITS SPECULATIVE, ITS FOR MORONS, ITS A MANIA, YOU MIGHT LOSE BIG!!!!", when these guys then go and end up suffering the exact fate they snidely predict others will, buying "their own" type of investments!

 

They underperform, then they need to make excuses why they are missing things. SO they disparage the people that are making money rather than say, "I didn't see that way to make money".They play the "sound and responsible fiduciary" card, but as a money manager, your job is to make money, not be a fiduciary. Give me all your money and I'll buy 30 acres and bury it in a fortified compound and have it guarded by people with AK-47's all day.. I'm not raising capital on that despite being a great fiduciary. Make money, or shut up. A good money manager is fine waiting for things, but also needs to be able to see what is working and what is not and how to capitalize on what is working. Sure there are a lot of idiots buying Bitcoin, and Tesla, and Beyond Meat. Figure out how to make money off the idiots.... Not sit there and whine and make excuses and disparage those who are actually making money...

 

[SHDL]

How could you not have known the moment you understood what Bitcoin was?  If you don't get it yet, you will still be asking "how could you have known?" 20 or 30 years from now when people who bought under $100k are rich.

 

Oh, and you are correct about worms with machine guns. Not seeing how Bitcoin is still worth only a small fraction of what it will be worth is like knowing that worms are acquiring machine guns and not understanding that the birds are  screwed.

 

Seth Klarman, one among many underperforming value investors, with a denigrating and condescending tone around his remarks, called Bitcoin a "trading sardine". In fact here is what he had to say: 

 

"There is the old story about the market craze in sardine trading when the sardines disappeared from their traditional waters in Monterey, California. The commodity traders bid them up and the price of a can of sardines soared. One day a buyer decided to treat himself to an expensive meal and actually opened a can and started eating. He immediately became ill and told the seller the sardines were no good. The seller said, 'You don't understand. These are not eating sardines, they are trading sardines.'

 

Like sardine traders, many financial-market participants are attracted to speculation, never bothering to taste the sardines they are trading. ... trading in and of itself can be exciting and, as long as the market is rising, lucrative. But essentially it is speculating, not investing. You may find a buyer at a higher price — a greater fool — or you may not, in which case you yourself are the greater fool."

 

Meanwhile, yesterday, Klarman got a life raft when Abbvie decided to acquire Allergan, a position he found to be more to his liking. Nevertheless, on his "value investment", Mr. Klarman is still said to have lost over $100M as his basis was significantly higher than the acquisition price. Prior to the acquisition, Mr. Klarman was likely down 30-40% on his AGN position.

 

What I find hilarious is the premise that "OMG DONT BUY THIS ITS SPECULATIVE, ITS FOR MORONS, ITS A MANIA, YOU MIGHT LOSE BIG!!!!", when these guys then go and end up suffering the exact fate they snidely predict others will, buying "their own" type of investments!

 

They underperform, then they need to make excuses why they are missing things. SO they disparage the people that are making money rather than say, "I didn't see that way to make money".They play the "sound and responsible fiduciary" card, but as a money manager, your job is to make money, not be a fiduciary. Give me all your money and I'll buy 30 acres and bury it in a fortified compound and have it guarded by people with AK-47's all day.. I'm not raising capital on that despite being a great fiduciary. Make money, or shut up. A good money manager is fine waiting for things, but also needs to be able to see what is working and what is not and how to capitalize on what is working. Sure there are a lot of idiots buying Bitcoin, and Tesla, and Beyond Meat. Figure out how to make money off the idiots.... Not sit there and whine and make excuses and disparage those who are actually making money...

 

You have a point; however, with professional money managers it’s probably not as simple.  Mike Burry apparently took his “just find value and make money” mandate a bit too literally and bought a huge amount of CDS on subprime mortgage bonds before anyone else in 2005.  His LPs balked, and not only that, they kept withdrawing money even as the bet was paying off like crazy.  Some (like Greenblatt) called him a liar tried to sue him.  Now if that is what happens when you make strange, exotic bets managing OPM, it’s not at all surprising that most money managers shy away from (and even criticize) them.

 

Anyway, I thought I’d mention this as I think these things tend to be a good source of market inefficiencies.

[Casey]

Every time bitcoin goes up, people act like the price suddenly got more logical and they're a genius for having their name listed on 1 slot of a magic distributed internet list.

 

Not only that - you're the fool for not wanting to pay $13,000 to take their place!

 

Let them stay on the list.

[SnarkyPuppy]

Every time bitcoin goes up, people act like the price suddenly got more logical and they're a genius for having their name listed on 1 slot of a magic distributed internet list.

 

Not only that - you're the fool for not wanting to pay $13,000 to take their place!

 

Let them stay on the list.

 

Have any more wisdom to share?

[SharperDingaan]

"They play the "sound and responsible fiduciary" card, but as a money manager, your job is to make money, not be a fiduciary. A good money manager is fine waiting for things, but also needs to be able to see what is working and what is not and how to capitalize on what is working. "

 

Like it or not, a money manager IS a fiduciary; forget that, and you will have a very short professional life.

A PM is restricted by the funds investment policy, and has little say; some policies WILL allow crypto up to X% of the portfolio, but restrict it only to Bitcoin and related derivatives, so that the PM can profit from both long AND short positions.

 

SD

 

 

[rkbabang]

Another answer to the question "Why is Bitcoin better than gold?"

 

https://www.foxnews.com/science/nasa-headed-towards-giant-golden-asteroid-that-could-make-everyone-on-earth-a-billionaire

 

And yes the author of this article has no grasp of economics if he thinks simply increasing the supply of gold could make everyone a billionaire.

 

[Spekulatius]

Another answer to the question "Why is Bitcoin better than gold?"

 

https://www.foxnews.com/science/nasa-headed-towards-giant-golden-asteroid-that-could-make-everyone-on-earth-a-billionaire

 

And yes the author of this article has no grasp of economics if he thinks simply increasing the supply of gold could make everyone a billionaire.

 

Buying bitcoin is like going long human greed, stupidity  and short crappy currencies. If you think about this, it seems like a winning strategy  :o.

 

The above is pulled from twitter, but I forgot the source.

[SharperDingaan]

Another answer to the question "Why is Bitcoin better than gold?"

 

https://www.foxnews.com/science/nasa-headed-towards-giant-golden-asteroid-that-could-make-everyone-on-earth-a-billionaire

 

And yes the author of this article has no grasp of economics if he thinks simply increasing the supply of gold could make everyone a billionaire.

 

Buying bitcoin is like going long human greed, stupidity  and short crappy currencies. If you think about this, it seems like a winning strategy  :o.

 

The above is pulled from twitter, but I forgot the source.

 

Quite agree. Snake oil pushers of sh1te coin to raise the boats of all crypto ...

and leveraged comex Bitcoin futures and options to help yourself to the panics  ;)

 

SD

 

[DooDiligence]

Comments?

 

 

Disclaimer: I don't understand the implications of this verse & am posting simply because I enjoyed the artistry & wanted to share.

 

;D

[TwoCitiesCapital]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/defi-increasingly-popular-tool-for-laundering-money-study-finds-11643202002?mod=hp_minor_pos12

 

Article about money laundering in cyrpto in WSJ today. Fairly balanced in its view. 

 

Points out that money laundering is happening, and increased in 2021, but that it's a small portion of all transactions (0.05%). Also that the bulk of it is tied to just 5 services/dApps and the flows fairly easy to follow if Feds want to get involved. It appears my assertions of public blockchains being terrible for crime continues to be backed up. 

 

The Bitcoin/crypto is for criminals narrative needs to die now. 

 

 

[Fly]

5 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/defi-increasingly-popular-tool-for-laundering-money-study-finds-11643202002?mod=hp_minor_pos12

 

Article about money laundering in cyrpto in WSJ today. Fairly balanced in its view. 

 

Points out that money laundering is happening, and increased in 2021, but that it's a small portion of all transactions (0.05%). Also that the bulk of it is tied to just 5 services/dApps and the flows fairly easy to follow if Feds want to get involved. It appears my assertions of public blockchains being terrible for crime continues to be backed up. 

 

The Bitcoin/crypto is for criminals narrative needs to die now. 

 

 

 

Don't worry, we've moved onto the next boss which is "Bitcoin is bad for the earth."

[KJP]

15 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/defi-increasingly-popular-tool-for-laundering-money-study-finds-11643202002?mod=hp_minor_pos12

 

Article about money laundering in cyrpto in WSJ today. Fairly balanced in its view. 

 

Points out that money laundering is happening, and increased in 2021, but that it's a small portion of all transactions (0.05%). Also that the bulk of it is tied to just 5 services/dApps and the flows fairly easy to follow if Feds want to get involved. It appears my assertions of public blockchains being terrible for crime continues to be backed up. 

 

The Bitcoin/crypto is for criminals narrative needs to die now. 

 

 

 

How are things like Tornado Cash affecting the usefulness of crypto for criminal purposes?

[rkbabang]

The crypto can be used for illegal purposes thing is a sad attempt to discredit something the powers that be dislike for other reasons.  Cars make it easier to get away from bank robberies.  <yawn>

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

2 hours ago, rkbabang said:

The crypto can be used for illegal purposes thing is a sad attempt to discredit something the powers that be dislike for other reasons.  Cars make it easier to get away from bank robberies.  <yawn>

 

 

Same with people who complain about the "wasted" energy - or dirty energy - used without considering how much energy intensity other industries have, how much the alternatives currently use, or how much of it that use comes from green energy. 

 

Anyone care to take a gander at how much energy is consumed from global streaming of entertainment television, how much of it was sourced from renewable energy, and why that energy usage is so morally superior to a global payments infrastructure to have escaped similar scrutiny?

[TwoCitiesCapital]

4 hours ago, KJP said:

 

How are things like Tornado Cash affecting the usefulness of crypto for criminal purposes?

 

Not super familiar with the service, but sounds like a mixer where coins are deposited,  mixed with other deposits, and redistributed to make tracing hard? 

 

My guess is that the 5 dApps singled out in the WSJ article are similar services - though it doesn't say. 

 

I'm not a forensic cryptographer myself. Struggling to do my own DeFi taxes at the moment so my level of expertise in following on-chain transactions is relatively low. Buy my understanding is such services make it more difficult, but not impossible, to follow the money.

 

Also, in a regulated world where on-ramps and off-ramps have KYC, you'd have to ask yourself what would be the purpose of anyone using such a service other than for criminal activity be since KYC negates the privacy argument. So would be a red flag for any wallet that touched one at that point and you don't have to follow the specific coins but rather just the wallets that interacted with the dApp...which is also publicly viewable. 

 

Edited February 1, 2022 by TwoCitiesCapital

[Longnose]

  

On 2/1/2022 at 9:47 AM, JAK said:

Thanks for the clarification. 

The 10k figure just stuck me as a large amount, if those were individual currencies, given a lot of the noise about crypto (at least to this uninformed observer whose only information to date has been reading Twitter fights between opponents / proponents for pure entertainment) is that unlike Fiat, the supply of BTC is capped... of course, as you say, just because there are 10k coins, doesn't mean all 10k would be accepted. 

 

Also, I had thought about YOLO'ing some lottery type money into some random coins. I think my Revolut account has maybe 20, as an asymmetric bet on the odds of one of them going 1000X. But if €5 on each would mean €50k rather than €100, then I might have to reconsider that idea.  

Again, no idea about crypto, and don't want to divert the thread into a discussion about it! Was just curious if there are 10k individual currencies in existence !

 

@JAKMoving the Bezzle Crypto conversation to this thread. 

 

There are more than 10K cryptos out there. When I started exploring crypto I took the exercise to create my own coin/token so that I could understand the back end of them. I've now created a few all with what I would describe 0 value. I did provide a small amount of liquidity to one and listed it on an decentralized exchange just for the exercise of it. Now i just use them as proof of friendship tokens for some of my IRL friends who are exploring crypto. I send them a token after setting them up with a wallet just for fun.

 

 I believe other people in the other Bezzle thread highlighted that its more what you do with the tokens that creates value. I would not be surprised to see a new evolution of business using crypto tokens as stocks. Instead of IPO ing via the stock exchange you could create a token and say your going to put the earnings of the business into the liquidity pool of the token. Or each token entitles you to a portion of the business dividend. Currently this would all be built on a trust relationship. But its not impossible.