Santayana Posted March 20 Posted March 20 40 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: BMO wrote on FFH last week post the Poseidon sale and cut the earnings given it is equity accounted for but didn’t include anything for the gain to be realized in Q2. And by not accounting for that gain, they are ignoring whatever future earnings will be created by the investment of that gain, whatever it happens to go towards.
roundball100 Posted March 20 Posted March 20 1 hour ago, Santayana said: And by not accounting for that gain, they are ignoring whatever future earnings will be created by the investment of that gain, whatever it happens to go towards. So yet another reason to celebrate for long-term shareholders ... ongoing opportunity for share retirement.
petec Posted March 20 Author Posted March 20 2 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I just see a lot of they got lucky on interest rates and steel and oil and gold and Digit etc… The consensus is they are bad investors Hell no. I think they are good investors or I would not entrust them with 16% of my money. I do think they got a bit lucky on Resolute. The other ones, I think they backed the right horse at the right price.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 20 Posted March 20 10 minutes ago, petec said: Hell no. I think they are good investors or I would not entrust them with 16% of my money. I do think they got a bit lucky on Resolute. The other ones, I think they backed the right horse at the right price. You might but that doesn’t change consensus. 6 hours ago, petec said: Then the returns materialised when those conditions changed. What makes it spectacular is that it all happened within the same 5 year span. On this point, a lot of these gains haven’t hit book value which helps with confidence on forward returns.
Hoodlum Posted March 20 Posted March 20 27 minutes ago, petec said: Hell no. I think they are good investors or I would not entrust them with 16% of my money. I do think they got a bit lucky on Resolute. The other ones, I think they backed the right horse at the right price. I believe Fairfax was also a bit lucky with the timing of the Stelco sale. If they had waited another 6-8 months, that would put it at the beginning of the trade wars and there is no chance that it could have been sold since then. Stelco would also have seen significant losses with Fairfax possibly needing to inject funds. Sometime you need to have some luck.
roundball100 Posted March 20 Posted March 20 48 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: I believe Fairfax was also a bit lucky with the timing of the Stelco sale. If they had waited another 6-8 months, that would put it at the beginning of the trade wars and there is no chance that it could have been sold since then. Stelco would also have seen significant losses with Fairfax possibly needing to inject funds. Sometime you need to have some luck. As they say about luck: if you leave everything to chance, then you run out of luck.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 20 Posted March 20 49 minutes ago, Hoodlum said: I believe Fairfax was also a bit lucky with the timing of the Stelco sale. If they had waited another 6-8 months, that would put it at the beginning of the trade wars and there is no chance that it could have been sold since then. Stelco would also have seen significant losses with Fairfax possibly needing to inject funds. Sometime you need to have some luck. When investing based on probabilities luck definitely plays a role in both directions.
petec Posted March 21 Author Posted March 21 On 3/20/2026 at 12:56 PM, SafetyinNumbers said: You might but that doesn’t change consensus. Not sure I follow. Consensus on what?
petec Posted March 21 Author Posted March 21 On 3/20/2026 at 1:13 PM, Hoodlum said: I believe Fairfax was also a bit lucky with the timing of the Stelco sale. If they had waited another 6-8 months, that would put it at the beginning of the trade wars and there is no chance that it could have been sold since then. Stelco would also have seen significant losses with Fairfax possibly needing to inject funds. Sometime you need to have some luck. I disagree. They partnered with the right guy, and he spotted the opportunity. That's not luck. If luck was involved, it was the steel price spike, which would not have happened without covid.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 22 Posted March 22 1 hour ago, petec said: Not sure I follow. Consensus on what? Consensus from quality investors that Fairfax are bad investors.
djokovic1 Posted March 22 Posted March 22 7 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Consensus from quality investors that Fairfax are bad investors. It really is quite shocking how bad most of these analysts are. But also consequently, I think they should have very little impact on Fairfax’s price relative to intrinsic value over the long term. ie any investors who rely on these poor analyst reports to build conviction are not going to be the price setters on Fairfax (over the long term). I also have to give Fairfax extra credit for positioning on the short end of duration last couple of years. I was skeptical of that. But it seems like it will end up being another great call by then.
Hoodlum Posted March 22 Posted March 22 This short interview was done before AGT Q1 results were released. I hadn't realized that the GLP-1 drug requires more protein to be consumed (1-1.5g of protein per kg of weight), in order to be effective. https://www.620ckrm.com/2026/03/21/agt-foods-goes-public-in-bid-to-scale-business/ Yellow pea protein is going into oatmeal in the United States, and AGT’s Veggipasta is in all the Whole Food stores there. “We’re launching additional SKUs (stock keeping units) in the U.S. retail now that are going to be lentil and chickpea, lentil and pea, chickpea and pea,” said Al-Katib. “We won the contract to produce pasta that’s being sold in Costco USA now: pea, lentil and cauliflower; pea, lentil and sweet potato, pea, lentil and spinach.” He said major growth plus low leverage equal a successful global business. Al-Katib also said GLP-1 drugs are going to be an “earthquake” in the food industry. If a food company doesn’t react, it will be destroyed by the trend in dietary fibre and protein. The patents on these medications are soon running out and costs will come down, he said. More access to them will lead to less food volume consumed and the shift to fibre and protein, he said.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 22 Posted March 22 5 hours ago, djokovic1 said: It really is quite shocking how bad most of these analysts are. But also consequently, I think they should have very little impact on Fairfax’s price relative to intrinsic value over the long term. ie any investors who rely on these poor analyst reports to build conviction are not going to be the price setters on Fairfax (over the long term). I also have to give Fairfax extra credit for positioning on the short end of duration last couple of years. I was skeptical of that. But it seems like it will end up being another great call by then. The analysts are mainly a reflection of their clients. My comment was more referring to the quality/value investor that owns Berkshire or Markel so presumably understands the business model but won’t look at Fairfax because they don’t like the expected value investing style. Most people can’t think probabilistically so they rely on historical correlations to create heuristics to protect themselves from bad outcomes. This is not a critique, deterministic investing has worked well since the GFC and may continue to work well, it’s just not what Fairfax does.
TwoCitiesCapital Posted March 22 Posted March 22 9 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: My comment was more referring to the quality/value investor that owns Berkshire or Markel so presumably understands the business model but won’t look at Fairfax because they don’t like the expected value investing style. I used to know a prior analyst at Sempur Augustus. In 2021/2022, I had pitched both Fairfax and Fairfax India to him. He said they'd never buy Fairfax because of the wildcard on the investments side (pointing to CDS as well as the deflation shorts and equity shorts) and basically extended that to Fairfax India despite it being an entirely different structure with no similarities in that regard. More for me.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 22 Posted March 22 42 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said: I used to know a prior analyst at Sempur Augustus. In 2021/2022, I had pitched both Fairfax and Fairfax India to him. He said they'd never buy Fairfax because of the wildcard on the investments side (pointing to CDS as well as the deflation shorts and equity shorts) and basically extended that to Fairfax India despite it being an entirely different structure with no similarities in that regard. More for me. Bloomstran used to mention Fairfax in his annual review of Berkshire and essentially dismissed it because of the leverage which is the best reason to own it, in my opinion.
petec Posted March 22 Author Posted March 22 22 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Consensus from quality investors that Fairfax are bad investors. Oh. No, but I couldn't care less. Fairfax are value investors. Most "quality" investors look down their nose at that.
mananainvesting Posted March 22 Posted March 22 Bluspring: This demerged from Quess in 2025, Fairfax owns ~35% ownership in Bluspring. Link: https://www.vccircle.com/fairfaxbacked-bluspring-to-buy-german-energy-firm-s-india-unit
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 23 Posted March 23 2 hours ago, petec said: Oh. No, but I couldn't care less. Fairfax are value investors. Most "quality" investors look down their nose at that. I appreciate that most value investors don’t care why their stocks are cheap but I do because it helps with conviction and to avoid mistakes.
petec Posted March 23 Author Posted March 23 14 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I appreciate that most value investors don’t care why their stocks are cheap but I do because it helps with conviction and to avoid mistakes. I don't think that's accurate. If you don't know why it's cheap, I am not sure that you really know that it is cheap. But I do think quality investors tend to look down their nose at value investors as some sort of inferior breed or throwback. I am eclectic and do both.
Duke In Shadows Posted March 23 Posted March 23 3 minutes ago, petec said: I don't think that's accurate. If you don't know why it's cheap, I am not sure that you really know that it is cheap. But I do think quality investors tend to look down their nose at value investors as some sort of inferior breed or throwback. I am eclectic and do both. it's a very anecdotal conversation. I've observed many so called "value investors" or "deep value investors" not understand why things are cheap or have a catalyst for it to change. but there are certainly others who do.
SafetyinNumbers Posted March 23 Posted March 23 45 minutes ago, petec said: I don't think that's accurate. If you don't know why it's cheap, I am not sure that you really know that it is cheap. But I do think quality investors tend to look down their nose at value investors as some sort of inferior breed or throwback. I am eclectic and do both. I have spoken to thousands of investors over the past 20 years so just sharing what I have observed. Clearly you are exceptional @petec. To that end, why do you think Fairfax and Fairfax India are cheap?
dartmonkey Posted March 23 Posted March 23 petec said: I don't think that's accurate. If you don't know why it's cheap, I am not sure that you really know that it is cheap. 1 hour ago, SafetyinNumbers said: I have spoken to thousands of investors over the past 20 years so just sharing what I have observed. Clearly you are exceptional @petec. To that end, why do you think Fairfax and Fairfax India are cheap? There are two kinds of 'why it's cheap'. The kind of 'why it's cheap' that value investors care about, is, it's cheap because it trades for 8x last year's earnings in a market that is trading at 25x, I think the earnings are sustainable and will even grow, so that's why I am saying it's cheap. The kind of 'why it's cheap' that a 'quality investor' might use is "it's cheap because, duh, it's an insurance company, it has no moat, it shorted tech companies and bought Blackberry. So a value investor can perfectly well say "I think it's cheap, but I don't know why", meaning that they don't know why the market is giving them such a low offer but they have good reasons to think it's cheap, so it will do well in the long run, even if they don't see any way out of the low multiples.
Hoodlum Posted March 28 Posted March 28 (edited) Metlen shares dropped 10% on Friday due to a 9 day delay in releasing the FY25 results, related to complexities of their first reporting as a dual listed company. https://www.metlen.com/media/eppcpz2y/260327_announcement_en_final.pdf Edited March 28 by Hoodlum
Hoodlum Posted April 7 Posted April 7 (edited) Both Eldorado Gold and Foran Mining shareholders approved the acquisition today. This is expected to close in Q2. https://www.eldoradogold.com/investors/news-releases/eldorado-gold-reports-voting-results-special-meeting-shareholders-0 https://foranmining.com/news-media/foran-news-releases/foran-securityholders-approve-business-combination-with-eldorado-gold/ Edited April 7 by Hoodlum
TwoCitiesCapital Posted April 8 Posted April 8 I would've preferred the straight copper exposure, but I suppose there are worse outcomes than diversifying with gold. Also, probably puts a higher floor under the share price if we get an economic slowdown here in the mid-term, so maybe not all bad.
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