bluedevil Posted April 21 Posted April 21 @nwoodman I have not seen any links or postings with the AGM transcript. Is that something you could share? Thanks!
nwoodman Posted April 21 Posted April 21 7 hours ago, bluedevil said: @nwoodman I have not seen any links or postings with the AGM transcript. Is that something you could share? Thanks! I found it via transcripts in Koyfin. I only seem to be able to copy a paragraph at a time in the app. Will try via the website later today for you
hasilp89 Posted April 22 Posted April 22 8 hours ago, bluedevil said: @nwoodman I have not seen any links or postings with the AGM transcript. Is that something you could share? Thanks! https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rW-8uDJFJzlu0jzAaPWXX_P1XdvvOeKTABhEV6ouSKk/edit?usp=sharing it is available on tikr also. in a google doc here.
UK Posted April 22 Posted April 22 5 hours ago, hasilp89 said: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rW-8uDJFJzlu0jzAaPWXX_P1XdvvOeKTABhEV6ouSKk/edit?usp=sharing it is available on tikr also. in a google doc here. Thank you very much!
bluedevil Posted April 22 Posted April 22 11 hours ago, hasilp89 said: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rW-8uDJFJzlu0jzAaPWXX_P1XdvvOeKTABhEV6ouSKk/edit?usp=sharing it is available on tikr also. in a google doc here. Thank you!
SafetyinNumbers Posted April 22 Posted April 22 11 hours ago, hasilp89 said: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rW-8uDJFJzlu0jzAaPWXX_P1XdvvOeKTABhEV6ouSKk/edit?usp=sharing it is available on tikr also. in a google doc here. Thanks for sharing. Do they have the FIH.U transcript as well?
nwoodman Posted April 22 Posted April 22 22 minutes ago, SafetyinNumbers said: Thanks for sharing. Do they have the FIH.U transcript as well? Try this FIHU - Transcripts.pdf
SafetyinNumbers Posted April 22 Posted April 22 17 minutes ago, nwoodman said: Try this FIHU - Transcripts.pdf 220.18 kB · 5 downloads Thanks!
gfp Posted April 22 Posted April 22 1 hour ago, nwoodman said: Try this FIHU - Transcripts.pdf 220.18 kB · 8 downloads Thanks - these transcripts are getting pretty good. How do they get a name like Gobinath's perfectly transcribed? Must not be AI?
hasilp89 Posted April 22 Posted April 22 lol no clue how they get the names right. in general i find the tikr transcripts to be pretty good. would also recommend the Quatr app - most EC/AGM/Investor Days/industry conferences can be streamed live or on replay. (although FFH AGM isn't on there!)
yesman182 Posted April 22 Posted April 22 43 minutes ago, hasilp89 said: lol no clue how they get the names right. in general i find the tikr transcripts to be pretty good. would also recommend the Quatr app - most EC/AGM/Investor Days/industry conferences can be streamed live or on replay. (although FFH AGM isn't on there!) Quatr is terrific for listening to calls, reading transcripts or earning releases.
Haryana Posted April 22 Posted April 22 this from your transcript on Fairfax India Prem: "India is going to have that same opportunity. As someone was saying here that the financial system grows at a multiple of nominal growth. So the nominal growth is 10%, 12%, this will grow at 2, 2.5x, maybe even more. And that's just the industry. And then on top of that, if you're good and our guys are very good, they'll grow faster than that." What this translates to is a potential of 30% CAGR over 30 years.
Xerxes Posted April 22 Posted April 22 Speaking of past AGM transcript on FIH, it is worth going back to couple year when they made an analogy to “Ford company stock that was chronologically undervalued trading in a foreign market. (I think Canada?)” That comment was made as an answer to FIH trading at a discount. And that is the case study that they have been looking at. Along those lines.
nwoodman Posted April 23 Posted April 23 I'm playing catch-up on some reading and came across this piece by Nida Iqbal at MS. Given last night's action in Eurobank, it looks like it might have caught up—some. Still, it makes for an interesting comparison of the Greek banks to their peers. EEMEA_20240408_2301.PDF
nwoodman Posted April 24 Posted April 24 Early this month Jefferies upgraded Eurobank with a PT of €2.60 on the basis that the Hellenic “synergies” are being lowballed. Eurobank management have rightly been downplaying the opportunity. Does anyone have the Jefferies note? Please post or PM. I have asked around but no joy. The note is referred to here: https://m.au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jefferies-upbeat-on-eurobank-shares-cites-growth-and-diversification-93CH-3188588?ampMode=1
MMM20 Posted April 24 Posted April 24 11 hours ago, nwoodman said: Early this month Jefferies upgraded Eurobank with a PT of €2.60 on the basis that the Hellenic “synergies” are being lowballed. Eurobank management have rightly been downplaying the opportunity. Does anyone have the Jefferies note? Please post or PM. I have asked around but no joy. The note is referred to here: https://m.au.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/jefferies-upbeat-on-eurobank-shares-cites-growth-and-diversification-93CH-3188588?ampMode=1 that pretty much covers it...
nwoodman Posted April 24 Posted April 24 41 minutes ago, MMM20 said: that pretty much covers it... Sure does. Many thanks @MMM20
Viking Posted April 24 Posted April 24 (edited) On 4/21/2024 at 4:25 AM, nwoodman said: Just working my way thru the AGM transcript I found it interesting that Sokol introduced Will Kostlivy as the CFO. I wonder if that was news to Will. Probably reading too much into it as I guess a lack of an acting CFO means automatically the gig is his until told otherwise https://www.linkedin.com/in/william-kostlivy?utm_source=share&utm_campaign=share_via&utm_content=profile&utm_medium=ios_app A good summary by Sokol, that has been well summarised by others David Sokol Thank you, Prem. It's a pleasure to be here. And as the other folks have commented, Fairfax is a phenomenal partner, and our whole team appreciates the relationship. Even when you have to work through difficult issues, they work through them professionally and you move on. Seaspan, essentially a shipping company, in '20 and '21, our management team, led by Bing Chen -- by the way, our CFO, Will Kostlivy, is here with me here today. We recognized and particularly led by Bing and his development team that our customers needed refreshing of their vessels. And it was an interesting time because the market wasn't in great shape in '18 and '19, but with the new requirements for reduction of CO2, the age of the fleet that was out there, it became apparent that there was real opportunity, so working with the customers, we're building 70 new ships today. We've delivered 42. What I think is impressive about that for our team is that we designed these ships in cooperation with our customers, $8 billion construction program that we initiated in '20 and '21; simultaneously financed all the vessels to be coterminous with the long-term charters averaging 12 to 18 years. So we've delivered 42 of those ships. Every one of them has been delivered early or on time, under budget. The management of the shipyards has been really something fun to watch. We'll deliver another 26 yet this year. And then 2 of that, the final 70, will be delivered in January of 2025, so the team has done a remarkable job. One of the really remarkable things that we didn't see coming is that those same ships today, because we locked in fixed pricing in 2020 and 2021, will be 30% more expensive. So the ships we're delivering this year, if you wanted to duplicate them, a, it would take you 2 years, but also you'd pay a 30% premium. So we have a build-in margin that is purely good fortune from our perspective, but nonetheless, you take it when it comes along. So that's where we are. Now that's going to show some pretty dramatic improvement in economics this year. We'll probably see revenues up around 25%, EBITDA north of 35% and net income above 20% growth from '23 through '24, but that's just a function of these ships coming on. They go on to charter immediately when they're delivered. We operate the ships. We do not take any fuel risk in the vessels. We just manage and operate the ships. And then we'll have another significant growth step in 2026 because the rest of those ships will be on for the full year entirely. So we'll be at 196 ships operating for that we have in a partnership. And then we have 6 extremely large car-carrying vessels that we're under contract to build. They'll go into construction later this year, delivered in '26 and '27. And each of those will carry about 10,000 vehicles, so they're actually the largest car carriers ever constructed. So that's the business. It will be a step function type of business. It's not one that our revenues -- we don't take short-term risk. Or we don't get the reward in the short-term markets. We do everything on a long-term basis, tie our financings to those charters, but it's a great business. And Prem, I'm pleased to say you're -- on the same basis that we went private, your investment should go up about 50% this year just based on the increased cash flow of the business, so it's been a pleasure. And we -- hopefully, the market will keep providing us opportunity in the future. I would suggest that, the next 2 or 3 years, we're going to see fewer opportunities because the amount of newbuilding, including our own, of the last 2 years is adding 30% to the existing market. The market only grows about 2% a year in the container shipping business. And so there's going to be a huge amount of scrapping of older vessels, predominantly driven by fuel choice, but it's going to -- there's going to be a couple of years of digestion of that much; unfortunately, all of our contracts. And I should mention one of our things we focus on is contracted backlog. And we have -- last year, we used up about $1.5 billion of our contracted backlog. We've already replaced it, so far, this year, so we have about $18 billion, a little over $18 billion of contracted backlog of operational revenue. So basically trying to keep 5 or 7 years constantly ahead of ourselves before we need to recontract anything. Prem Watsa David, thank you very much. $18 billion of contracted revenue, David said, and fixed-price financing. They make the spread. Ships have gone up by 30% from when they bought it. This is the type and very, very risk conscious, unbelievably risk conscious. @nwoodman What Sokol said at Fairfax's AGM was, IMHO, one of the most important pieces of new information to come out of the entire event. Poseidon is Fairfax's third largest equity holding (with a value of +$2 billion), after Eurobank and FFH-TRS. Poseidon's performance in 2023 was disappointing (share of profit of associates of $150 million), compared to the guidance Atlas provided in their investor day back in March of 2022. However, it appears performance should improve markedly in 2024 and the coming years. "So the ships we're delivering this year, if you wanted to duplicate them, a, it would take you 2 years, but also you'd pay a 30% premium. So we have a build-in margin that is purely good fortune from our perspective, but nonetheless, you take it when it comes along. So that's where we are. Now that's going to show some pretty dramatic improvement in economics this year. We'll probably see revenues up around 25%, EBITDA north of 35% and net income above 20% growth from '23 through '24, but that's just a function of these ships coming on." David Sokol "...your investment should go up about 50% this year just based on the increased cash flow of the business" David Sokol This is big news. And something to monitor moving forward as Fairfax reports quarterly results. ---------- Below is the guidance Atlas provided in March of 2022. Edited April 24 by Viking
nwoodman Posted April 25 Posted April 25 1 hour ago, Viking said: @nwoodman What Sokol said at Fairfax's AGM was, IMHO, one of the most important pieces of new information to come out of the entire event. Agree and prompted me to throw a few more shares on the pile. It was good to hear Sokol reiterate that contracts are ex fuel. Any further spike in fuel costs, rendering the older vessels uneconomic, should accelerate scrapping rates which will help their cause no end towards the back end of the decade. The table in the following link, I believe, is the number vessels scrapped. https://www.go-shipping.net/demolition-market “The units typically used on the demolition market page are USD per Light Displacement Tonnage (LDT). Light Displacement Tonnage represents the weight of the ship's hull and all permanently attached fixtures and fittings. This unit is used to determine the scrap value of a ship, with prices quoted per ton based on this measurement.” There was a lot of articles indicating scrapping Rates were on the rise but the table indicates otherwise…so far. Not really an issue for the next few years.
glider3834 Posted April 25 Posted April 25 https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/business/€182m-deal-marks-hellenic-s-strategic-move-into-insurance-sector
nwoodman Posted April 26 Posted April 26 54 minutes ago, glider3834 said: https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/business/€182m-deal-marks-hellenic-s-strategic-move-into-insurance-sector Nice . I wonder if ultimately this gets spun out to Eurolife.
Viking Posted April 26 Posted April 26 (edited) 3 hours ago, glider3834 said: https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/business/€182m-deal-marks-hellenic-s-strategic-move-into-insurance-sector Looks like a very smart use of Hellenic Bank’s significant excess capital. Should be lots of synergies and cross selling opportunities. Valuation: “Hellenic Bank would acquire 100% of CNP Cyprus Insurance Holdings for a total consideration of €182m (corresponding to 1.0x CNP CIH book value).” https://www.cnp.fr/en/the-cnp-assurances-group/newsroom/press-releases/2024/cnp-assurances-has-entered-into-exclusive-negotiations-for-the-sale-of-its-subsidiary-cnp-cyprus-insurance-holdings-to-hellenic-bank-public-company Edited April 26 by Viking
This2ShallPass Posted April 28 Posted April 28 On 4/21/2024 at 4:25 AM, nwoodman said: I would suggest that, the next 2 or 3 years, we're going to see fewer opportunities because the amount of newbuilding, including our own, of the last 2 years is adding 30% to the existing market. The market only grows about 2% a year in the container shipping business. Thanks @nwoodman for following up on this thread! Good to see this year is looking a lot better. But the above highlights the cyclicality of this business and 2% yearly growth rate. I really hope this one works out considering it's a top 3 investment, but it doesn't give me the feeling of a quality compounder. On 4/21/2024 at 4:25 AM, nwoodman said: One of the really remarkable things that we didn't see coming is that those same ships today, because we locked in fixed pricing in 2020 and 2021, will be 30% more expensive. This is great. But why would any counterparty signup for fixed cost to build these ships when delivery is years away? Makes no sense. Not questioning what Sokol is saying, but that's a head scratcher that any rational business would take that kind of risk when cost inflation is always there..
nwoodman Posted April 28 Posted April 28 1 hour ago, This2ShallPass said: Thanks @nwoodman for following up on this thread! Good to see this year is looking a lot better. But the above highlights the cyclicality of this business and 2% yearly growth rate. I really hope this one works out considering it's a top 3 investment, but it doesn't give me the feeling of a quality compounder. This is great. But why would any counterparty signup for fixed cost to build these ships when delivery is years away? Makes no sense. Not questioning what Sokol is saying, but that's a head scratcher that any rational business would take that kind of risk when cost inflation is always there.. 1. Agree, with your first point. However, mentally Ihad written this off until the end of the decade so the remarks assuaged some fears rather than stoked bullushness. The hope for this one is Sokol and team can cut through the crazy boom/bust in shipping. I still remain hopeful there is a % of market tipping point. I must confess to uneasiness around Sokol but that's just me. 2. Fixed price vs cost plus. If we believe the rhetoric then the ship yards just got it wrong. It makes up for some pretty poor hedging that I think cost the previous CFO his position. @Viking has discussed this previously along the lines of how did Bradstreet get the bond call so right yet this view somehow was not fully captured at the sub level. I am sure it is far more complex but it did appear to be inconsistent.
petec Posted May 1 Author Posted May 1 On 4/25/2024 at 12:26 AM, Viking said: @nwoodman What Sokol said at Fairfax's AGM was, IMHO, one of the most important pieces of new information to come out of the entire event. Poseidon is Fairfax's third largest equity holding (with a value of +$2 billion), after Eurobank and FFH-TRS. Poseidon's performance in 2023 was disappointing (share of profit of associates of $150 million), compared to the guidance Atlas provided in their investor day back in March of 2022. However, it appears performance should improve markedly in 2024 and the coming years. "So the ships we're delivering this year, if you wanted to duplicate them, a, it would take you 2 years, but also you'd pay a 30% premium. So we have a build-in margin that is purely good fortune from our perspective, but nonetheless, you take it when it comes along. So that's where we are. Now that's going to show some pretty dramatic improvement in economics this year. We'll probably see revenues up around 25%, EBITDA north of 35% and net income above 20% growth from '23 through '24, but that's just a function of these ships coming on." David Sokol "...your investment should go up about 50% this year just based on the increased cash flow of the business" David Sokol This is big news. And something to monitor moving forward as Fairfax reports quarterly results. ---------- Below is the guidance Atlas provided in March of 2022. Why is the investment up 50% on net income growth of 20%, which would still put them way behind the guidance in that table? Did I miss something?
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