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Posted
1 hour ago, fareastwarriors said:

Anyone long JPY ? 

38 yr low vs US$

 

 

Who's contrarian? 

 

Not me bro, 160 now and it seems like it can keep going to 200 Yen to USD

 

I don't see Japan raising rates and Fed doesn't look like it's cutting

 

 

Posted
31 minutes ago, brobro777 said:

 

Not me bro, 160 now and it seems like it can keep going to 200 Yen to USD

 

I don't see Japan raising rates and Fed doesn't look like it's cutting

 

 

 

 

Me either, not my style. Just drawing some attention to it. 

 

Though I am planning a trip to Japan .    🙂

Posted
16 minutes ago, ArminvanBuyout said:

Imagine trying to raise when Debt to GDP is 250%...

 

Oh yea and their exporters gotta love the weak currency

 

So I figure in their position, why not let it run to 200 or 250? Bring back the 70s!

 

Posted

I have a small Japanese stock basket that I bought on JPY margin - effectively short the yen. It is in no way intended as a currency trade, but I do agree with @brobro777

Posted

I feel bad for the ordinary Japanese citizens who are getting screwed by the weak currency/inflation but who can endure pain for years without complaining, if not the Japanese? 

 

Americans? Haha 

 

 

Posted
23 hours ago, rogermunibond said:

Japanese are complaining quite loudly about the wave of gaijin tourists. 

 

Mostly in Kyoto I suppose? Luckily I already saw Kyoto in the mid 90s, tourism was still reasonable at the time.

Posted

Is there any evidence that Japanese conglomerates are actually doing these break ups or ever will? 
 

Kind of hard for me to imagine their culture embracing this. 

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, backtothebeach said:

 

Mostly in Kyoto I suppose? Luckily I already saw Kyoto in the mid 90s, tourism was still reasonable at the time.

 

Kyoto is the epicenter, but it's country-wide. Instagrammers started blocking traffic in front of a Lawson's that had a view of Mount Fuji above it, it got to be so bad the local town put a screen up to run the tourists off. Now they're finding holes in the screen. There's now even been a push to start charging foreigners more for goods and services and at attractions.

 

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20240624_19/

 

I went for the Sakura in spring of 2023 and it was a complete zoo. Ruined the experience. If I was going back I'd get off the traditional tourist track and spend more time in Hokkaido and Kyushu. 

 

 

Edited by Gamecock-YT
Posted

I've never traveled in Japan but I heard from people who went there that it's no problem if you respect their rules - and bonus if you make an honest effort to communicate in Japanese

 

Oh man if Yen 200 hits maybe I should go there purely cuz of currency

  • 1 month later...
Posted
4 minutes ago, dealraker said:

Anyone up for sharing sound idea for Japan index ETF?  

 

Do you have a view on whether you want Yen hedged or not?  They make 'em in both flavors

Posted (edited)

You can certainly buy some of one type and some of the other...  I have no view on whether it will be beneficial to hedge the JPY going forward.  I'm going to be in Japan in September and October so maybe I will come back with a view on that.  There has been quite some volatility in the JPY recently!

 

Warren has it worked out pretty well.  He's majority hedged from JPY weakness and his major investments in Japan earn a lot of their income in US dollar type of international activities.

 

You can sort of see the differences in how the two types of ETF (hedged and unhedged) performed differently at different phases of the JPY-weakness and JPY-strength/unwind/freak-out

 

spacer.png

 

big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=USDJPY&uf=0&

Edited by gfp
  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...
Posted

Heard a pitch on Subaru. Trading below cash. Mid single digit PE. Shareholder returns 30-50% of income, split between dividends and buybacks.

Posted
1 hour ago, Stuart D said:

Heard a pitch on Subaru. Trading below cash. Mid single digit PE. Shareholder returns 30-50% of income, split between dividends and buybacks.

Yeah, it was in the Value after hour podcast. I think it’s a good one. Toyota owns a piece of it already and they collaborate on an all the hybrids power trains. They may decide to take them out. 

Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Yeah, it was in the Value after hour podcast. I think it’s a good one. Toyota owns a piece of it already and they collaborate on an all the hybrids power trains. They may decide to take them out. 

Yep! Value after hours is where I heard it - great podcast 😊 

Edited by Stuart D
  • 2 weeks later...

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