A fascinating way to deal with N. Korea?

[Cardboard]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/11/china-should-be-neutral-if-north-korea-fires-first-on-us-global-times.html

 

The Chinese have an interesting view but, quite stupid in my opinion.

 

I think it is quite probable that North Korea will try launching a missile or more towards Guam. However, what if there is a miscalculation and the thing hits land vs the ocean? The precision of their missiles has to be terrible at this stage.

 

Then it is quite probable that the U.S. and South Korea would launch an all out attack on North Korea's launch sites and HQ. Some of these sites are nuclear laboratories. If you were in China, would you not be worried of some radioactive fallout due to a site being bombed even with conventional weapons?

 

They need to start thinking about this more seriously in my opinion. It is one thing to stick it to the U.S. but, it is another to have casualties in your own country.

 

Cardboard

[DooDiligence]

As always, I take your posts too seriously, Sailor!

 

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Edit 1, & off topic:

 

I really hate your investment style, being invested in NVO and a PBM at the same time is to me bordering to racketeering.

 

If Krispy Creme was available, I'd prob buy it too...

[Zorrofan]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/11/china-should-be-neutral-if-north-korea-fires-first-on-us-global-times.html

 

The Chinese have an interesting view but, quite stupid in my opinion.

 

I think it is quite probable that North Korea will try launching a missile or more towards Guam. However, what if there is a miscalculation and the thing hits land vs the ocean? The precision of their missiles has to be terrible at this stage.

 

Then it is quite probable that the U.S. and South Korea would launch an all out attack on North Korea's launch sites and HQ. Some of these sites are nuclear laboratories. If you were in China, would you not be worried of some radioactive fallout due to a site being bombed even with conventional weapons?

 

They need to start thinking about this more seriously in my opinion. It is one thing to stick it to the U.S. but, it is another to have casualties in your own country.

 

Cardboard

 

Right now China sees the most likely outcome being a unified Korea if North Korea collapses. I think that China simply cannot stomach the thought of a democratic, pro-US country located right on their border. Their sole reason for propping up North Korea has been to prevent that. Think US-Cuba as an example. The question becomes how does China and the US come up with a solution they can both live with. 

[flesh]

I don't think Kim would allow anything, in his control, to continue for long that would dis-intermediate his power.

 

If everyone cuts of their oil, starting with china, they will capitulate. The US could buy all of N. Korea's proportion of chinese oil to facilitate. This isn't my idea but it's the best I've heard presently.

 

 

[clutch]

Hey all:

 

The N. Korea situation is finally starting to heat up & get some attention.  Unfortunately, it looks like it could go the WRONG way and a lot of people get hurt...

 

Any way that you look at it, it is a difficult situation.  I am shocked that N. Korea is not already at the maximum level of sanctions...If the N. Korean regime was willing to let MILLIONS of their citizens starve in the 90's, I doubt they will be phased by anything short of a total blockade.  The Chinese would probably cheat on that anyway...

 

I heard an interesting way to deal with them...one that I had not heard anywhere else...and am thinking that maybe it might just actually work...

 

Instead of military strikes OR embargoes & sanctions....be totally open with N. Korea.  Allow their citizens to have a welcome in other countries....Flood N. Korea with balloons carrying dollar bills, USB sticks, pamphlets, small luxury items, food, etc.  Put in small sections from newspapers showing prices of food, electronics, cars, etc.  Kind of like a Sunday advertisement supplement in newspapers.

 

I have seen videos on the YouTube showing that various S. Korean civilian & religious organizations are doing this...but they don't really have adequate resources.  What if the various groups got government backing and ramped up their efforts 100x?

 

Show them that one of the problem in USA is that people are eating TOO MUCH.  That the average home in USA, Canada, England, Germany, Korea, etc. has 42" lcd tv, has 100+ channels, can have pizza delivered in 30 MINUTES OR LESS!

 

Put the scientists to work to develop internet capable satellite phones.  Drop 500 of those a day, every day in N. Korea.  Phones that can also dial out to numbers in S. Korea, numbers in the west, can call anywhere...can watch S. Korean soap operas, can watch movies, and so on.

 

Show them the "West" has no beef with individual N. Koreans, ask them to join us...

 

Kind of like what this guy is advocating:

 

https://capitalistexploits.at/2017/08/common-sense-way-get-rid-kim-jong-un/

 

 

Just think, in bulk, every balloon care package might cost $500?  100 of them a day is $50k, that is LESS than the price of one "smart" bomb...Run that campaign for a 1,000 days and that is just $50mm!  That would be LESS than the price of one or two days of war...

 

Might be something to consider.  Very cheap option, and at least we made a serious effort to avoid death & destruction.

 

Disclosure: I'm Korean Canadian who was born in South Korea.

 

The approach you describe is a good one, but North Korea knows it too. So they will do whatever they can (including military force) to counter this strategy.

 

For instance, read this:

https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/22/world/asia/north-korea-attack-on-south-triggered-by-propaganda-loudspeakers.html

 

In other words, they won't just sit on their ass knowing that the western materials / information are getting into their country.

 

"Allow their citizens to have a welcome in other countries"

- Well, N. Korea will kill anyone and their families who are caught defecting to other countries.

 

You have to realize that they know how to play this game well... Otherwise sustaining their regime for decades over three generations would not have been possible.

[clutch]

IMO, the only plausible approach at this point is to somehow convince Kim that his well being will be guaranteed if he decides to let go of his regime. Have him step down and let him live in some secret location where US/Chinese military will protect him.

 

In place of the current regime, US/Russia/China/S.Korea/Japan will have to negotiate instituting some sort of a temporary state with the goal of de-militarizing everything there. De-militarization (especially of the nuclear weapons / facilities) would be a must for other countries in the region before the North Korean peninsula could be unified with South Korea. (i.e., China, or even Japan, would never accept South Korea with nuclear weapon capabilities)

 

Of course, I don't know how well US could convince Kim, when Kim saw what happened to Gaddafi and Hussein...

[SharperDingaan]

The well worn elegant solution is that Kim and company depart this mortal coil.

 

The quid-pro-quo for an unrestricted US response/defense against a missile launch, being an unrestricted Chinese response/defense to their NK problem. The 2 Korea's stay as they are, tensions dissipate, and business returns to a more predictable 'normal'.

 

Assuming success, the template then gets applied to 1-2 others as well.

 

SD

 

[sleepydragon]

If Kim is killed by a US rocket, I think North Korean will cheer instead of retaliate, and elect a new leader and start diplomatic relationship with US.

  ;D

[Cigarbutt]

You then need humble souls looking for compromise.

Good luck.

Poison pen ranters nourish themselves on confrontation.

The Supreme Leader won't abandon.

Expect more stars to fall and more slathered worlds.

One has to remain optimistic but humans are what they are.

[rb]

If Kim is killed by a US rocket, I think North Korean will cheer instead of retaliate, and elect a new leader and start diplomatic relationship with US.

  ;D

How did that Iraqis are gonna love us once we take out Saddam work out?

[rukawa]

People commenting here are wrong to think that the one way for this to work is for it to be impossible for the North Korean regime to resist it. Any action only has to do two things:

 

1) Massively increase the cost of maintaining power for the regime

2) Increase the dissatisfaction of the North Korean people

 

Generally speaking Eastern Europe and Russia regimes came down because of two things: their people were against them and they couldn't afford the military spending to maintain the existing system. The North Korean regime is hugely paranoid. They would have to spend tremendous amounts of money to deal with a sustained propaganda effort.

 

For instance to shoot down a million balloon might be possible for the North Koreans but massively expensive given the man power needed to find the balloons. And even if 1 in 1000 balloons made it down it would be enough due to the magic of black markets.

 

Consider the amount of money spent on 1 million balloons vs the money the US spends on bases, military etc. Its pretty cheap and effective.

 

[rb]

People commenting here are wrong to think that the one way for this to work is for it to be impossible for the North Korean regime to resist it. Any action only has to do two things:

 

1) Massively increase the cost of maintaining power for the regime

2) Increase the dissatisfaction of the North Korean people

 

Generally speaking Eastern Europe and Russia regimes came down because of two things: their people were against them and they couldn't afford the military spending to maintain the existing system. The North Korean regime is hugely paranoid. They would have to spend tremendous amounts of money to deal with a sustained propaganda effort.

 

For instance to shoot down a million balloon might be possible for the North Koreans but massively expensive given the man power needed to find the balloons. And even if 1 in 1000 balloons made it down it would be enough due to the magic of black markets.

 

Consider the amount of money spent on 1 million balloons vs the money the US spends on bases, military etc. Its pretty cheap and effective.

Ok, I don't think that you're gonna be able to do the 1 million red balloons. But what do I know, let's say that you can. I can foresee a few scenarios:

 

1. The Kim regime feels that it's loosing it's grip on power and lashes out. Cause fuck it, what does it have to loose? Then everybody dies.

 

2. The Kim regime is about to loose power or looses power. China decides that it's unacceptable for them to loose control over NK. China intervenes with force. A lot of people die and now you're in a confrontation with China and militaries are involved. Brilliant!

 

3. Let's say that our dreams come true and everything goes according to plan and North Korea somehow implodes from within ala Soviet Union. What happens to the balloon goodies now? Do they continue to fly in? What about the promises that the balloons symbolize? Does the US along with SK and JP stand ready to implement a Marshall like plan? Keep in mind that this will be way longer and complicated than Marshall plan because Germany had technology and shit. NK is a backwards third world. The commitment will be decades long. It will also be very costly. Will the US be able to remain committed through election cycle after election cycle? Cause if not you have a destabilized country full of angry people, armed to the teeth, that possesses a nuclear arsenal. And that's a really, really bad combination

[clutch]

I think rb pointed out the possible scenarios pretty well.

 

I wanted to also point this out - China (and Russia) will try to get the control of N. Korea if it starts to implode. At least it won't let S. Korea or US take the control. So I don't think it's a good idea trying to cause internal implosion without a solid plan (which US often failed having in other regions).

 

The reason is pretty simple. China cannot have in the region,  US-backed unified Korea with a nuclear weapon.

 

By the way, this should explain why it was a no brainer from N. Korea's stand point to develop nukes. It not only threatens the opponents, but it also forces China to not let the North Korean regime to fall under the US / S. Korean power.

 

So, any plan to resolve this issue must involve the disarmament of nuclear weapons in the Korean peninsula as its key. Simply putting balloons in the air won't help.

 

[SharperDingaan]

If Kim is killed by a US rocket, I think North Korean will cheer instead of retaliate, and elect a new leader and start diplomatic relationship with US.

  ;D

 

More like folks wake up one morning, notice a lot of tanks and troops on the streets, and silence from the regime. Died in their sleep.

New regime & no invasion from SK, per a negotiated deal.

 

SD

 

 

 

[Uccmal]

There is nothing simple about this situation.  And there are no simple solutions. 

 

Comparisons to the fall of Eastern Europe, and Iraq dont apply.  The former Soviet Union and Eastern Block countries had well educated populations, decent infrastructure, and something to build upon.  The same with Iraq.  The same with Germany, Italy, amd Japan after WW2.  I dont see that with North Korea.  I see a country where the people live in poverty beyond our comprehension (like 500 years ago poverty).  They starve regularly, get little to no education, have no job skills approximating anything more modern than 100 years ago, and this has been the case for 70 years.  No matter what you do they aren't going to suddenly revolt. 

 

The leader of North Korea is surrounded by a ruling elite that has to be eliminated as well (if he doesn't get them all first).  The military are all part of that elite so dont look for coup from the people or the military.  The system there is built in paranoia.  If you are a soldier you are afraid of the government taking your livelihood and killing you, so you do your job.  If you are a soldier you dont want a coup because you lose your elite status.  The whole system is self reinforcing. 

 

Sanctions only hurt those who are poor and starving already.  The idea that they will revolt is a very western idea.  The idea that the leadership cares one whit about public opinion is also nonsense. 

 

No one has a solution.  If they weren't protected by China they could be handled the way Iran has been.  But it wont work.  Iran's population is sophisticated, and educated, and they have a huge non oil industrial base.  They operate to public opinion and getting the sanctions lifted was in the leaderships best interest to maintain power. 

 

I also doubt that China is contributing to their nuclear program.  Would you want an unstable leadership on your border with nuclear capabilities?  He can point them any direction. 

 

The only hope is gone until Kim dies, and maybe you get a more enlightened leader.  There were hopes that Kim would open the country up but he seems as enlightened as his father and grandfather. 

 

What South Korea needs is a huge wall that will block artillery (sound familiar), and allow the "allies" the time they need to take out North Korea's equipment and minimize the damage in the meantime to Seoul.  But this has to be done with a full blessing, and help from China and a long term plan to contain the populace and provide for them until they can get on their own, which will take decades. 

 

Ugly situation all around. 

 

 

 

[tede02]

I was thinking about this a bit more.  Would be nice if the US could perfect missile defense and surround N. Korea with these systems.  That would really be amazing.  It would be the ultimate slap in the face against the regime.  They've spent all this time, money and bluster on missiles and then they're neutralized.  Kim has bet basically everything on missiles.  That's his only bargaining chip.  He'd have to go completely back tot he drawing board.  Of-course, the technical problem here seems very significant.  I haven't read much about missile defense but it appears to be pretty tough to master. 

[HJ]

The best thing to do is to assassinate Kim.  Somehow Denis Rodman would have to be involved, and maybe some K-pop girls.  :-*

 

Honestly though, keep the involvement at a very small group of people.  If an assassination attempt fails, there's absolute deniability from any of the government(s) involved. If he somehow survives the attempt, it only gets him more paranoid about his surrounding with no outlet to release his paranoia, and it doesn't really change the status quo on the greater geopolitical standoff, and may even isolate him from his immediate surroundings further.

[John Hjorth]

From fas.org: Richard L. Garwin: "Strategic Security Challenges for 2017 and Beyond".

[rkbabang]

A newspaper in Maine has it right. We need to deal with them using fire and furry.

https://www.boston.com/news/media/2017/08/10/maine-newspaper-mortified-by-front-page-typo-of-trumps-north-korea-threat

[Cigarbutt]

Thank you John Hjorth for the article.

The Korean War which finished in 1953 was not really finished.

China became massively involved and forced an armistice with the US, reaching some kind of equilibrium.

This North Korea clash is really about super powers as China is testing the waters.

Let's hope for a bilateral retreat but the Korean Leader and Korea's geo-political importance is at a completely different level versus Libya or Iraq.

This is about balance of power and shifts.

Tectonic shifts can be immaterial in the grand scheme of things but are unpredictable.

I don't like the present scenario.

 

http://sam.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Namrata_Goswami.pdf

[clutch]

Thank you John Hjorth for the article.

The Korean War which finished in 1953 was not really finished.

China became massively involved and forced an armistice with the US, reaching some kind of equilibrium.

This North Korea clash is really about super powers as China is testing the waters.

Let's hope for a bilateral retreat but the Korean Leader and Korea's geo-political importance is at a completely different level versus Libya or Iraq.

This is about balance of power and shifts.

Tectonic shifts can be immaterial in the grand scheme of things but are unpredictable.

I don't like the present scenario.

 

http://sam.gov.tr/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Namrata_Goswami.pdf

 

I completely agree and will state again - simply assassinating Kim or destroying the regime within is not a solution on its own. You have to plan for how to deal with the balance of power in the region once those events occur.

[John Hjorth]

Thank you, gents,

 

I'm actually trying to educate my self a bit on this matter by reading a lot of stuff about the situation. So I try to post what I find on my way, that I suppose could be of value for my fellow board members, too. I try to keep my posts right now without  expression of personal opinions. However, I must say, that I also have expressed in another topic my concerns about this situation, and the needle in the feelings spectrum for me is moving in the "worried" range right now, with velocity towards "scared".

 

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This is definitely very, very bad & ugly.

[HJ]

If the goal is to deal with a mad man in North Korea, keeping the whole exercise small and surgical is the most sensible way to approach it.  Why play geopolitics when there is consensus between US, China and Russia to sanction North Korea?  If the goal is to somehow fight a geopolitical battle against Chinese and Russian influence in the region through dealing with North Korea, I'm afraid the battle will be lost.  China's influence in the region will only increase.  Economics dictate so, and nothing the neocons can do will stop it.

[rukawa]

Ok, I don't think that you're gonna be able to do the 1 million red balloons.

 

Lol. You really mean you hate the idea and so you refuse to think about it. I take your statement to mean that it is impossible to produce 1 million inflated helium balloons and release them. Your statement as it stands is ridiculous.

 

But what do I know

 

That is a very interesting question. Its happened to me more than once on this board that people who should easily and obviously know better about certain things given their background, where they work ... somehow don't. And my final realization is that none of this has anything whatsoever to do with what someone "knows" or doesn't know. It has everything to do with what you would like to argue. If what you should "know" goes against what you are trying to argue than you will somehow stop "knowing" it. I know I do this...I think its called motivated reasoning.

 

let's say that you can. I can foresee a few scenarios:

 

Scenarios 1) and 2) will only not happen if the current North Korean regime maintains power forever. And that will only happen if the US, China or some combo basically subsidize the regime indefinitely. Is that what you propose? I see two problems:

a) The longer we wait the worse both 1) and 2) get

b) North Korea has every incentive to rachet up their demands since they can just keep proposing war

 

a) and b) have already happened under Clinton, Obama and Bush. The longer we wait the worse your scenarios 1) and 2) get. The subsidize the regime indefinitely stratagem has already been tried...it isn't working.

 

On the other hand your scenarios may never happen. The North Korean regime can't afford war since it means the certain end of their regime and very likely imprisonment or death for leading officials.

 

3. Let's say that our dreams come true and everything goes according to plan and North Korea somehow implodes from within ala Soviet Union. What happens to the balloon goodies now? Do they continue to fly in? What about the promises that the balloons symbolize? Does the US along with SK and JP stand ready to implement a Marshall like plan? Keep in mind that this will be way longer and complicated than Marshall plan because Germany had technology and shit. NK is a backwards third world. The commitment will be decades long. It will also be very costly. Will the US be able to remain committed through election cycle after election cycle? Cause if not you have a destabilized country full of angry people, armed to the teeth, that possesses a nuclear arsenal. And that's a really, really bad combination

 

I don't understand the difficulty here. North Koreans are already starving to death and eating the bark off trees. How could any change be anything other than an improvement? And why the necessity of a Marshall plan? Vietnam has had no Marshall plan. China never had one. Singapore didn't. Plenty of Third world, dirt poor Asian shitholes have progressed without having any Marshall plans.

 

And few of them had the advantage of having a neighbor to the South with the same culture, same language and a massive manufacturing industry that will face massive labour shortages going forward.

[John Hjorth]

No matter how ugly you might assess this to be, ... I have to bump it up - for further discussion & speculation, if warranted here,

 

What have we seen since mid August 2017? [the date of the last post in this topic]

 

More rockets in the air space over sovereign states from NK?

Who do you think is the most scared right now?

 

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On my FB account I follow Wikipedia.org - for educational purposes. Interesting stuff pops up now and then. Personally, I speculate some person have the decision about what to link to from Wikipedia.org to FB. [Read: contextual relevance, to up usage of Wikipedia.]

 

I think it was Sunday last week that I got hit on FB by this Wikipedia article about flyting.

 

At least to me, interisting stuff - Please make up your own mind, if this has perhaps at least some appeal to you.

 

To me, somehow, this US / NK situation is flyting revived. [Here, perhaps most likely without drinking beer together, after the "public fight".]

 

Two states men, throwing around with very personal insults to each other : "old", "short" & "fat" and I don't know what, recently.

 

And then recently, a tweet, something like this " I want to make him my friend..." or something like that... [i don't even bother to look it up to get it correct.]

 

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In short - my pocket theory here boiled down to a one liner: "As long as the personal insults keep flying around - without involving insults of the wifes of the fighting parties - it bodes - at least to some extent - well for all of us."