Parsad Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I don't want this to get into a huge political discussion and will delete all posts that degenerate into one. But I just wanted to get an intellectually honest answer from anyone who voted for Trump: Questions: - Does it concern you that the very first press conference by the President's team was centered on "crowd size for the inauguration" instead of anything important? - Does it concern you that the team has now said that they won't release the tax returns regardless if the audit is completed? As investors, we all respect and want transparency through disclosure, so is this not antithetical to our intellectual frameworks as investors? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tede02 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Questions: - Does it concern you that the very first press conference by the President's team was centered on "crowd size for the inauguration" instead of anything important? - Does it concern you that the team has now said that they won't release the tax returns regardless if the audit is completed? As investors, we all respect and want transparency through disclosure, so is this not antithetical to our intellectual frameworks as investors? Cheers! I would agree that it is unreal. Watching Trump during the campaign was pure entertainment because he would say crazy stuff that no other politician would ever dream of. Now that he's actually the president, its mind-blowing to see it continue. I would add, does it concern anyone that since the election, Trump has denegrated US intelligence, including calling them Nazi's just last week and implying he has more trust in Julian Assange? Now he says the media is responsible for creating a false narrative that he has a rift with them. Unbelievable. My response, throughout the campaign, and even recently, has been to just laugh and laugh. Over the last year, my wife has found me giggling a number of times wondering what the hell I was watching on my computer. Now she knows if I'm on the computer and laughing, its because I'm watching some crazy ass thing Trump said. But now that he's president, for me, its starting to really become distasteful. It's like seriously, you're the president of the United States and your concerned about television ratings? I was a lost voter this cycle like many. Neither major party candidate was of my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest cherzeca Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 there will be 4 years of trump v MSM. i dont care as long as there is also 4 years of economic improvement. i dont care one whit about trump's tax returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 There's a number of topics we could address from either perspective...pro-Trump, con-Trump. I'm only asking about the two things that have occurred since he became President. In particular, disclosure of taxes. As investors, students of Buffett, ethical behaviour and in terms of intellectual honesty...this is completely contradictory to what he told supporters and non-supporters alike...he would release his tax returns after the audit was complete. Now his team is saying that they won't release them at all. How do those that voted for Trump, that he would clean up the mess and be transparent...feel about this contradiction in personal disclosure? Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsad Posted January 22, 2017 Author Share Posted January 22, 2017 there will be 4 years of trump v MSM. i dont care as long as there is also 4 years of economic improvement. i dont care one whit about trump's tax returns. Ok, I absolutely get that stance. But if his team is contradicting their position from day one on his tax returns, how do you feel that he will actually be committed to making economic improvements over the next four years? And believe me, I'm not pro-Hillary either. I think both choices, Americans were damned. I just don't know if the lesser of two evils was picked, and we won't know that until we see what happens! Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforesthiker Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I am a libertarian and voted third party, but I will answer your questions from my perspective: 1). I think the MSM was incredibly biased during the campaign, and think it makes sense for the Trump administration to hold the media accountable on day one. (Note that I am not sure where the truth lies on this particular issue) 2). I think he should release his tax returns, but I don't care that much. I think it most likely that he is not releasing them because they would show that he had a large amount of losses years ago and has not paid taxes in many years because of that. He knows it would be good fodder for his opponents. You can't view Trump's election victory in the abstract, but only relative to his opponent. Hillary was 100% bad - a big government politician and a warmonger to boot. Trump might actually do some useful things, such as reducing regulations, returning education to the states, reducing bureaucracy, etc., and may even be less interventionist in foreign affairs (I hope). I agree that this election was about the lesser of two evils; I just think Trump was the lesser evil here. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTEJD1997 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I care little of Trump's tax return(s). My guess is that he has sheltered his income through depreciation on the real estate and it would show relatively low income. He probably didn't want this to come out to give fodder to his opponents. As long as he didn't do anything illegal, I don't really care. As for the talking about the swearing in crowds...don't really care either. I think it was very nice and prudent that he has ordered that bureau that was mocking him on twitter to cease all twits from now on. You can't be mocking the boss man! I listened to most of Trump's speech and found it very inspirational. The media is an absolute joke...And this is a very, very, very dangerous thing. They have abandoned their watchdog role in society. Of course, this has slowly been going for many years now. Of course, they are massively "liberal" and massively biased. This is certainly bad. What is even worse though is that they are not very smart, and they are not doing much investigative journalism. For example, their is very little discussion of the MASSIVE problem with pension problems in the USA. There is little discussion of the problem of negative and zero interest rates. No discussion of the problems with banks and the blow up of 2008/2009. No discussion of the massive problem of student loans/education fraud. Little discussion of the collapse of primary education in inner cities. Little to no discussion of the problem of "asset forfeiture", the surveillance state....the breakdown of many police departments...the conditions of inner cities....the breakdown of the family I am also sure there are also many, many things that I don't have any idea about. The mass media simply has little to no credibility any more. HOWEVER, with all this being said, I am more optimistic than I have been in many a year! I think there is a good chance that good times are ahead of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
no_free_lunch Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 this thread = ambush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 Sanjeev, over the past 18 months we all have enough information on Trump to understand exactly what his character is. Since he has become president elect we also have ample evidence that nothing has changed. To me the surprising thing is that people are actually surprised he is now saying that he will not release his tax returns. And complaining at first press conference about crowd size gave me some comfort that my read on he man and those around him is accurate. It is clear to me that the Trump presidency is going to closely parallel many of the nationalist governments running European countries in the 30's. Those governments were welcomed by their people in the early years. He will implement policies in the coming weeks and months that will be supported by those who voted for him. The really interesting thing to me is Trump has not actually done anything yet... wait until he actually starts running his government. And attacking those who oppose him. And attack the media. I don't think my comparisons to 1930's European governments is going to be too far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
20ppy Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 If one looks at history, we are now back for about 100 years. Whatever good economics Trump Administration may incidentally bring about, it is at the cost of morals, progress and decency of the human race. Trump is now our president, he is a very bad human being nonetheless. To your questions, Sanjeev, voters of Trump knew who he was/is, and didn't worry much because what's the worst for them? They have been suffering anyways. According the Princeton U.'s recent study, U.S. middle aged poor whites die off younger more than any other races in historical levels. It is no wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 My bold guess is that he gets impeached by his own Republican Congress. At some point the economy will turn again, and that's when his populist appeal will start eroding. He's already has a low approval rating, and the longer he stays in office, the more damage his and his staff's idiotic comments will do. At the same time, when the blue collar workers realize they are actually worse off with trade wars, and all that manufacturing is not returning, he will lose even more support. All of this will be problematic for the Republicans in the mid-term elections. On the other hand, Mike Pence is exactly the type of Republican they want, and not an idiotic loose cannon like Trump. I think Democrats may actually fear Pence more than Trump for that reason and may not support an impeachment, and would rather have the GOP collapse under its own weight. Just all fun speculation, but semi serious. Hopefully we still have a country by 2018 or 2020. To answer Parsad's questions, yes the lies with crowd sizing and war with the press is deeply concerning to me. Fascism is alive and well. I am optimistic though with some of his cabinet picks like Mnuchin and Tillerson. That gives me some hope that perhaps it won't be a total shit show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Sanjeev, over the past 18 months we all have enough information on Trump to understand exactly what his character is. Since he has become president elect we also have ample evidence that nothing has changed. To me the surprising thing is that people are actually surprised he is now saying that he will not release his tax returns. And complaining at first press conference about crowd size gave me some comfort that my read on he man and those around him is accurate. It is clear to me that the Trump presidency is going to closely parallel many of the nationalist governments running European countries in the 30's. Those governments were welcomed by their people in the early years. He will implement policies in the coming weeks and months that will be supported by those who voted for him. The really interesting thing to me is Trump has not actually done anything yet... wait until he actually starts running his government. And attacking those who oppose him. And attack the media. I don't think my comparisons to 1930's European governments is going to be too far off. You're comforted that Trump parallels nationalistic leaders in Europe during the 1930s?? His first press conference and address to the CIA were worrying in that he can't let petty things go. "Alternative facts"!? Are we going to start doubting the numbers on Jobs, GDP, etc etc? A large portion of the U.S.'s prosperity is due to its credibility--if that falls, then so will the country's AAA rating, status as reserve currency, etc, etc. The hope is that Trump only focuses on trivial things like crowd sizes and leaves the meat of governing to his more conventional cabinet picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I didn't vote (but I would've if Bernie would have gotten the nod - against my personal best interests, probably, but he seems the most genuine). However, I do agree with Trump and Sanders that the system is rigged to a certain extent. For instance, Silicon Valley and New York has seen "yuge (sorry)" amounts of wealth created while most of the country has suffered the past 25-30 years. People have been living on credit. Real wages are stagnant and jobs are harder to get (more education and more debt). LTCM runs into problems? Bailout. Silicon Valley's bubble burst? Bailout. Banks sold a bunch of crappy mortgages? Bailout. Would Silicon Valley be what it is today if the Federal Reserve didn't lower interest rates? I highly doubt it. People would have lost money and the recovery wouldn't have been nearly as swift (lessons would've been learned...but that didn't happen). The same goes for the 2008 bailouts and LTCM. You take out student loans and can't find a job (or are underemployed)? Sorry - suck it up. You work in a factory and are laid off? He's a few thousand $ in unemployment - suck it up. On another note, one of the worst things that has happened to the middle class is the reduction of pensions. You basically have people (who have no idea what they're doing) put money into a 401k and...good luck! At least with a pension you have someone who sorta knows what they're doing. It's worked wonderfully for the investment guys in NY (easy to charge 2%+ for an ira...a pension plan isn't going to pay that) but has destroyed the middle class. Ignorance and high fees = disaster. When you tinker with the natural laws of economics (bailouts, artificially low interest rates), you'll eventually start to pay a price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 To add, this is the most fascinating thing I watched this weekend, and I think Ray Dalio is on point: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-01-18/the-crisis-of-the-middle-class-davos-panel The question is: will Trump be aggressive and thoughtful or aggressive and reckless? The signs from this weekend are not reassuring. The hope is that he focuses on superficial details such as his image and defers on the more critical functions of government to others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garrett1 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I agree with this thread = ambush 20ppy did you vote for Trump? from your tone I'm assuming you didn't I'm an Independent, and after reading enough of the wiki leaks material that was released from the Democratic Party. I will have a hard time voting for a Democratic again. The corruption and absolute contempt for the middle class is absolutely disgusting. I could care less about Donald Trump's deficiencies. He has smart people around him and he will adapt to the job. I'm sure in an unconventional way which will keep the powers that be on their toes. A large number of small business owners that I deal with are very much looking forward to the future. Enough with the non-stop roadblocks to try and conduct normal business operations. No one expects him to get all he spoke of done. Just an honest attempt is all anyone can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viking Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Mephistopheles, I agree with you that there will be wins that come from a Trump cabinet. I think the best thing about a Trump presidency is there will be a vigorous debate about the true benefits of 'globalization'. My read is economists are underestimating how mobile labour is, how difficult it is to retrain people as they age etc. This will allow programs to be put into place to improve people's lives. It also appears as though some countries are winning more than others and is not sustainable. With Trump the risk is the pendulum swings to far the other way (to protectionism). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'm an Independent, and after reading enough of the wiki leaks material that was released from the Democratic Party. I will have a hard time voting for a Democratic again. The corruption and absolute contempt for the middle class is absolutely disgusting. I could care less about Donald Trump's deficiencies. He has smart people around him and he will adapt to the job. I'm sure in an unconventional way which will keep the powers that be on their toes. Not voting Democrat because of wiki leaks is like if you had two companies to invest in, one of them (Company A) had full disclosure (all 10-K's, 10-Qs, proxies, etc etc) and the other (Company B) had no public filings. You see some things in A's filings that are a bit shady, so you then opt to put it all in Company B which you have no info on. That was the 2016 election. We had full info on one candidate (tax returns, a decade of e-mails, decades in the public spotlight) and almost no info on Candidate B. And many like you went with B because of bias against info released against A (without similar info about B to judge fairly). Wikileaks had info on Candidates A and B, and the intelligence agencies suggest that, with influence from Russia, only info on "A" was released to affect outcome of the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 The question is: will Trump be aggressive and thoughtful or aggressive and reckless? The signs from this weekend are not reassuring. The hope is that he focuses on superficial details such as his image and defers on the more critical functions of government to others. This I think is the most likely scenario. There was a story out during the campaign that he asked John Kasich to be his VP and if he accepts, he (Kasich) would be in charge of domestic and foreign policy. Kasich asked, well what will Trump be in charge of? And the answer was "Making America Great Again". lol It's obvious that Trump only cares about his self image and wealth. He doesn't have the patience, discipline, or desire to do the work required as President. He rewards his loyal backers by delegating his powers. This is a good thing in some instances. Like, Steve Mnuchin, Wilbur Ross, Gary Cohn in charge of economic policy - great. Scott Pruitt and Rick Perry heading the EPA and Energy depts - not so great. NRA in charge of gun policy - frightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalal.Holdings Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 This I think is the most likely scenario. There was a story out during the campaign that he asked John Kasich to be his VP and if he accepts, he (Kasich) would be in charge of domestic and foreign policy. Kasich asked, well what will Trump be in charge of? And the answer was "Making America Great Again". lol It's obvious that Trump only cares about his self image and wealth. He doesn't have the patience, discipline, or desire to do the work required as President. He rewards his loyal backers by delegating his powers. This is a good thing in some instances. Like, Steve Mnuchin, Wilbur Ross, Gary Cohn in charge of economic policy - great. Scott Pruitt and Rick Perry heading the EPA and Energy depts - not so great. NRA in charge of gun policy - frightening. I was thinking of that Kasich story exactly! His cabinet picks seem conventional (relative to himself), and so that is my hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mephistopheles Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I'm an Independent, and after reading enough of the wiki leaks material that was released from the Democratic Party. I will have a hard time voting for a Democratic again. The corruption and absolute contempt for the middle class is absolutely disgusting. I could care less about Donald Trump's deficiencies. He has smart people around him and he will adapt to the job. I'm sure in an unconventional way which will keep the powers that be on their toes. Not voting Democrat because of wiki leaks is like if you had two companies to invest in, one of them (Company A) had full disclosure (all 10-K's, 10-Qs, proxies, etc etc) and the other (Company B) had no public filings. You see some things in A's filings that are a bit shady, so you then opt to put it all in Company B which you have no info on. That was the 2016 election. We had full info on one candidate (tax returns, a decade of e-mails, decades in the public spotlight) and almost no info on Candidate B. And many like you went with B because of bias against info released against A (without similar info about B to judge fairly). Wikileaks had info on Candidates A and B, and the intelligence agencies suggest that, with influence from Russia, only info on "A" was released to affect outcome of the election. We did have some info on B, such as that one year of tax returns with the half billion dollar loss, the Trump University lawsuit, and public filings from Trump Hotels and Casino in which he enriched himself through related party transactions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
orthopa Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I could care less about his tax returns. If I could have lowered my income to point of not paying taxes I would have every year I have filed. I take every available deduction there is for me. Does that mean I should show everyone my tax returns? Makes no sense. I think its great he is holding the media accountable. The majority of the media is liberal so this should be expected. Why shouldn't they be called out? How about a question for those who are against Trump and liked the idea of the women's march. Where were all the women marching on the national mall when Bill was railing interns and accused or rape. I dont know whats worse bragging about womanizing or actually doing it. Apparently all of those marching yesterday thought the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valcont Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I think you guys are missing the forest for the trees. How many of you look at the CEO/CFO's personal tax returns to make a judgement on a company? It is none of your business.Just because someone in the 1970s decided that this should be done doesn't make it a legal requirement. And I am so glad we are finally moving away from this puritanical bullshi.. that these politicians go through and live a completely separate lives in private. I love it when he doesn't hug any children, doesn't think its necessary to go to some poor neighborhood for Martin Luther King's day, lay a wreath on memorial day, hold his wife's hands. Oh and about that tape in Russian's hands. Think about it for a moment. Only in a mainstream media bubble that this is the most damning evidence of his incompetence!! And I am thinking kudos to a seventy year old who can still enjoy the party once in a while. When in Russia, do the prostitutes. There was a script that everyone needed to learn to run for the office. Trump disrupted that and we will all be better for it. Lets save the outrage when he actually does something horrible. So far he has done everything that he promised, a rarity in my opinion and his voters should be very pleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottHall Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I don't want this to get into a huge political discussion and will delete all posts that degenerate into one. But I just wanted to get an intellectually honest answer from anyone who voted for Trump: Questions: - Does it concern you that the very first press conference by the President's team was centered on "crowd size for the inauguration" instead of anything important? - Does it concern you that the team has now said that they won't release the tax returns regardless if the audit is completed? As investors, we all respect and want transparency through disclosure, so is this not antithetical to our intellectual frameworks as investors? Cheers! It is important for a leader to appear to be liked and admired in order to give him the power to get anything done. It's very important that public perception of Trump is shaped in a favorable manner because it will help him achieve his policy goals and get his platform through the Congress. Leadership strength is reflexive, so it's important to look good early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tooskinneejs Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 "Does it concern you that the very first press conference by the President's team was centered on "crowd size for the inauguration" instead of anything important?" Presumptuous and misleading question. The conference was on truth in news reporting, as evidenced by two examples of dishonest reporting. But it was clever of you to miss the forest for the trees purposefully in order to get the little jab in about it being unimportant. Some people think truth in news reporting is important. Maybe you don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doc75 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 I think its great he is holding the media accountable. The majority of the media is liberal so this should be expected. Why shouldn't they be called out? There's no question the media can be biased and is replete with manufactured outrage etc. However, in this particular case, I fail to understand how Trump is "calling the media out". Calling them out on what, exactly? They actually did their job. He was making obviously false claims about how his inauguration crowds were the biggest ever, yada yada. Hardly surprising coming from him, but the media did the right thing by challenging his exaggerations. So he had a little fit and got wildly sidetracked during his speech at the CIA. Then he sent his press secretary out to double down on easily proven falsehoods. Then Kellyanne tripled-down and coined the phrase "alternative facts". The very fact that his counsel has introduced the phrase "alternative facts" into the lexicon (on the second day in office!) should trouble even his most ardent rational supporters. Since everyone likes to put these discussions in an investing framework: Imagine listening to a conference call where the CEO states that revenues increased by 25% YOY whereas a simple calculation shows there was actually a decline of 10%. The CEO not only stands by his numbers when challenged, but is pissed that analysts are questioning him. Then, in response further queries, the company's general counsel (or VP investor relations) states that the 25% increase is an "alternative fact". I just don't get how any rational person/investor could not be alarmed by this behaviour. Yes, there's always spin. But generally in the world's respected democracies the spin is not with regards to readily established facts. All this said, my biggest fear is that Trump's narcissism makes him very manipulable. He is clearly preoccupied with his own grandeur to a degree incomprehensible to the average person. Fortunately there are some smart people around him to help guide the ship. EDIT: My mistake. I read through the earlier posts too quickly and now realize Sanjeev's question was specifically aimed at the first press conference, not his more recent experiences with "truth and the media". I left the rest of my post above because I think it's still relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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