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What fund manager/s would you choose to invest your money?


feynmanresearch
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Re Carl Icahn & Howard Marks - Marks is not fully involved in investment decisions; OakTree is a big beast now. Icahn is more involved but he is bound to continue gradually ceding responsibility to others (e.g. his son, Brett). Personally, if I am to pick managers who will look after my capital, I want someone who has another 20 good years in him/her. Hence my list:

 

Myself

Zach Schreiber at PointState

John Armitage at Egerton

David Tepper at Appaloosa

Dan Loeb / Third Point

Citadel (Kensington / Wellington)

Chase Coleman / Tiger Global

Chris Hohn at TCI

Stan Druckenmiller (though he's converted to a family office now)

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If you had a significant amount of capital, who would you choose to invest your money with?

 

If I had significant amount of capital, I'd go with 50% stock index(es), 50% conservative bond fund (possibly Loomis Sayles)/cash.

 

Reasoning: outperformance only matters if you have insignificant amount of capital. If you have significant amount, you're much better off trying to preserve it than trying to outperform with it (see also Buffett if you need authority ;)).

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If you had a significant amount of capital, who would you choose to invest your money with?

 

If I had significant amount of capital, I'd go with 50% stock index(es), 50% conservative bond fund (possibly Loomis Sayles)/cash.

 

Reasoning: outperformance only matters if you have insignificant amount of capital. If you have significant amount, you're much better off trying to preserve it than trying to outperform with it (see also Buffett if you need authority ;)).

No, you are totally wrong! If you have a significant amount of money you can afford to lose a lot without any impact on your lifestyle. If you have a little bit of money, losing it will have direct consequences on whether or not you can go on holidays, buy a bigger house etc.

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No, you are totally wrong! If you have a significant amount of money you can afford to lose a lot without any impact on your lifestyle. If you have a little bit of money, losing it will have direct consequences on whether or not you can go on holidays, buy a bigger house etc.

 

In general, I think it's a bad strategy to risk what you need in the hope of gaining something you don't need.

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No, you are totally wrong! If you have a significant amount of money you can afford to lose a lot without any impact on your lifestyle. If you have a little bit of money, losing it will have direct consequences on whether or not you can go on holidays, buy a bigger house etc.

 

In general, I think it's a bad strategy to risk what you need in the hope of gaining something you don't need.

 

Fully agree. 200%. Sometimes though it isn't clear what you need, but if one operates on the assumption that building capital from your labours is hard work and sometimes a one time event open to massive change, then protecting the downside is of critical importance.

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If you have a significant amount of money you can afford to lose a lot without any impact on your lifestyle. If you have a little bit of money, losing it will have direct consequences on whether or not you can go on holidays, buy a bigger house etc.

 

First of all, people should not plan to use money they invest in stocks for holidays. They probably should not even plan to use it for bigger house, but that's more of a "depends" situation.

 

If I had a significant amount of money, I'd be living from it (and not working), so losing a lot of it would impact the lifestyle a lot (force me to work again, plus I can't replace lost money easily by earnings). I am talking portfolio of $10M+ here.

 

If I lose little money, it is actually rather easy to replace it by working. I am talking portfolio of up to $200K or so here.

 

Between $200K and $10M is a grey area. As you go up through it, it gets harder and harder to replace lost money by working&saving. It is also getting harder and harder to get to the next step by just saving + having a conservative portfolio. So there's a tension between the two and IMHO that's the area where it is important to invest for outperformance. You may disagree, although it seems that you are too emotional about it. ;)

 

BTW, if you go over $30M or so, you are right, you get back to "you can afford to lose a lot without any impact on your lifestyle" zone.

 

Of course, it depends on individual circumstances and all that.

 

Take care

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Are you talking about allowing them to invest your funds directly or for you to invest in their investment vehicle?  If it is directly, every response on this board should go to Buffett as his track record is second to none and he has said he can compound small amounts at 50%+ /year.  If it is his investment vehicle e.g. Berkshire then that's different story all together due to it's size. 

 

If you had a significant amount of capital, who would you choose to invest your money with?

Personally, I would choose Carl Icahn and Howard Marks

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If you have a significant amount of money you can afford to lose a lot without any impact on your lifestyle. If you have a little bit of money, losing it will have direct consequences on whether or not you can go on holidays, buy a bigger house etc.

 

First of all, people should not plan to use money they invest in stocks for holidays. They probably should not even plan to use it for bigger house, but that's more of a "depends" situation.

 

If I had a significant amount of money, I'd be living from it (and not working), so losing a lot of it would impact the lifestyle a lot (force me to work again, plus I can't replace lost money easily by earnings). I am talking portfolio of $10M+ here.

 

If I lose little money, it is actually rather easy to replace it by working. I am talking portfolio of up to $200K or so here.

 

Between $200K and $10M is a grey area. As you go up through it, it gets harder and harder to replace lost money by working&saving. It is also getting harder and harder to get to the next step by just saving + having a conservative portfolio. So there's a tension between the two and IMHO that's the area where it is important to invest for outperformance. You may disagree, although it seems that you are too emotional about it. ;)

 

BTW, if you go over $30M or so, you are right, you get back to "you can afford to lose a lot without any impact on your lifestyle" zone.

 

Of course, it depends on individual circumstances and all that.

 

Take care

 

So very true. Saving in a small portfolio can make it grow quickly or at least seem that way. Get a substantial amount of money and a bad month in the market can wipe the equivalent of months of savings. The flip side is though good performance really starts to become noticeable as it grows.

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For the equity side my friend Martin ferguson at Mawer. Unfortunately he just retired.

 

His old understudy Paul Moraz runs a global small cap and is very good.

 

Both have obliterated their respective indexes.

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I would rather index the SP500 at the lowest cost possible if I feel I am unable to be mentally functional. I will be happy beating 90% of the managers over the long term doing nothing.

 

Problem with finding fund managers is even if you are able to spot the extremely good ones and even if they beat the market consistently, unless u can buy life insurance on them, there is no guarantee you would get what you hoped for.

 

Problem with investing in a fixed set of high quality stocks is, even if you are able to spot the really long term compounders with good moats, unless u can buy CDS on them, you can never be sure  whether they will survive. You can never be too sure whether someday a good enough fool might run the business and destroy the moat.

 

SP500 will survive until we have a functioning stock market.

 

I guess this is why even WEB suggests this strategy for his estate plan.

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I have spent some with with Jeff MO. Not a l of time but enough to believe he will do a good job going forward. I know Martin was not going to retire till he thought Jeff was ready.

 

The beauty of Mawer is the managers essentially all have the same philosophy and follow the same investment process. When Martin to over the Canadian small cap he had a very similar performance to the manager before him. I expect the same from Jeff. Jeff does have a much larger fund to run then Martin initially did, so this will work against him to some extent.

 

 

For the equity side my friend Martin ferguson at Mawer. Unfortunately he just retired.

 

His old understudy Paul Moraz runs a global small cap and is very good.

 

Both have obliterated their respective indexes.

 

Any thoughts on Jeff Mo?

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