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2016 Goals


doughishere
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Has anyone thought about their new years goal.

 

My goal this year is to find at least one idea I hold strong and destroy it. To quote Charlie Munger, "Any year that passes in which you don’t destroy one of your best loved ideas is a wasted year." More than one would be great.

 

Also, Keep up with hitting the crossfit gym....not pushing it on anyone but it is working wonders.

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I have thought briefly about my 2016 goals.  I guess I have several....

 

1). Have a positive return for the year.  2015 was probably my WORST year of investing ever...

 

2). Contribute more to this board.

 

3). Write more articles.  Get more on Seeking Alpha and become a member of the "VIC"

 

4). Re-establish my contacts and become more active with management in positions that I have.  I used to ask a lot of questions of management, attend annual meetings & get on conference calls.  Need to start doing that again.

 

5). GET SOME GREAT BARGAINS!n  I know they are out there somewhere...

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Most people should just be in index funds. I wouldn't talk him out of it.

 

At least its a lot more tax efficient, but on the other hand the 500 original companies of the S&P500 outperformed the index (and when you equal weight at the start even more). So maybe its a good idea to build an index yourself with >100 companies. It shouldn`t be too hard to exclude the crappy businesses. On the other hand you are back to active investing then. Maybe do it like Buffet and make buy once sell never decisions, that should be even better.

 

My goals for 2016 are

 

1) hold my weight

2) make more friends

3) stop trading options, OTC, microcaps and illiquid stocks and stop making stupid short term trades. (the last one was already on last years list, if someone has an idea to force myself to not do it, its welcome.)

 

 

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Most people should just be in index funds. I wouldn't talk him out of it.

 

At least its a lot more tax efficient, but on the other hand the 500 original companies of the S&P500 outperformed the index (and when you equal weight at the start even more). So maybe its a good idea to build an index yourself with >100 companies. It shouldn`t be too hard to exclude the crappy businesses. On the other hand you are back to active investing then. Maybe do it like Buffet and make buy once sell never decisions, that should be even better.

 

My goals for 2016 are

 

1) hold my weight

2) make more friends

3) stop trading options, OTC, microcaps and illiquid stocks and stop making stupid short term trades. (the last one was already on last years list, if someone has an idea to force myself to not do it, its welcome.)

 

The only thing I can think of is explicitly restricting yourself. Ban yourself from selling a stock within a year. You'll think harder before you make a purchase. (of course artificial restrictions like this also have a price, but it's probably quite minor).

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Not dying is a good one.

 

Going full steam into my second career is the main goal. By this time next year I want to be ready to start working in the field.

 

My wife and I have two daughters, 3 and 6 years old. We haven't traveled anywhere yet. Disney is on the list for next year. We went to a resort an hour away this summer and that was the litmus test.

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Quit active investing.

Really? - Please elaborate a bit, Jurgis.

 

I don't believe I add value through my investing decisions. And it probably would be more useful to society if I spent more time on projects in my primary occupation rather than trying to get extra return by actively investing.

 

I was trying to go this way this year already, but got sucked in into oil morass and some other interesting "opportunities".  8)

 

Most likely I'll just dump most money into BRK/Fairfax/Malone and couple more "forever" holds. I've been going in this direction already.

(And before we have religious argument that this is also "active" investing - yes, I know, next question  8) ).

 

The counterargument to this is that putting money in BRK/Fairfax this year would have been even worse than my oil-dragged portfolio.  :o But this is for 2015 results thread.  8)

 

Peace.

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Quit active investing.

Really? - Please elaborate a bit, Jurgis.

 

I don't believe I add value through my investing decisions. And it probably would be more useful to society if I spent more time on projects in my primary occupation rather than trying to get extra return by actively investing.

 

I was trying to go this way this year already, but got sucked in into oil morass and some other interesting "opportunities".  8)

 

Most likely I'll just dump most money into BRK/Fairfax/Malone and couple more "forever" holds. I've been going in this direction already.

(And before we have religious argument that this is also "active" investing - yes, I know, next question  8) ).

 

The counterargument to this is that putting money in BRK/Fairfax this year would have been even worse than my oil-dragged portfolio.  :o But this is for 2015 results thread.  8)

 

Peace.

 

Amen brother.  Your not alone on this board I suspect.  I have taken a capital drubbing, which is going to take me some time to work out this year.  But the dividends keep flowing and will be a principle part of my returns going forward.  Sideways, fairly, or even slightly expensive markets are not easy to invest in.  But the arbitrage opportunity between margin borrow, and dividend payouts is extraordinary. 

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Most people should just be in index funds. I wouldn't talk him out of it.

 

At least its a lot more tax efficient, but on the other hand the 500 original companies of the S&P500 outperformed the index (and when you equal weight at the start even more). So maybe its a good idea to build an index yourself with >100 companies. It shouldn`t be too hard to exclude the crappy businesses. On the other hand you are back to active investing then. Maybe do it like Buffet and make buy once sell never decisions, that should be even better.

 

My goals for 2016 are

 

1) hold my weight

2) make more friends

3) stop trading options, OTC, microcaps and illiquid stocks and stop making stupid short term trades. (the last one was already on last years list, if someone has an idea to force myself to not do it, its welcome.)

 

The only thing I can think of is explicitly restricting yourself. Ban yourself from selling a stock within a year. You'll think harder before you make a purchase. (of course artificial restrictions like this also have a price, but it's probably quite minor).

I really admire you honest post, frommi. Not trying to patronize you here, but I would add : Get fully invested at a time when you are in the right state of mind for doing it, and cancel all margin, in case you have any.

 

Personally - within the last 3 - 4 years - I have become aware, that somewhere in my brain - I don't know where - I have a built-in speculator, ready to take on the track record of Warren Buffet in his early years, even by using margin or cash not available for the purpose of stock investing, soo selfconfident and hungry, just ready about every day to commit the "perfect" [ and dumb] hubris.

 

Adding family money to the equation [thereby over time changing managed money to 8x at the moment, and it will grow over time to about the double of that] have helped a lot to keep this little guy in a short leash. Reading about the GS margin call of Micheal Pearson recently in the VRX topic has also helped to keep this little guy in control.

 

I haven't yet found a name for this little guy. Perhaps I will just call him Micheal.

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Most people should just be in index funds. I wouldn't talk him out of it.

 

At least its a lot more tax efficient, but on the other hand the 500 original companies of the S&P500 outperformed the index (and when you equal weight at the start even more). So maybe its a good idea to build an index yourself with >100 companies. It shouldn`t be too hard to exclude the crappy businesses. On the other hand you are back to active investing then. Maybe do it like Buffet and make buy once sell never decisions, that should be even better.

 

My goals for 2016 are

 

1) hold my weight

2) make more friends

3) stop trading options, OTC, microcaps and illiquid stocks and stop making stupid short term trades. (the last one was already on last years list, if someone has an idea to force myself to not do it, its welcome.)

 

Number 3: For the first time in years I have no options.  Trial and lots of error have taught me that calls only work during massive dislocations.  My market gambler did however buy me a new fender amp - Bought and sold VRX leaps one morning, and got out of the way before I became a long term investor. 

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I love options. Particularly, the yields I can get from selling them on stocks perceived to be particularly volatile. I recently made 5% on notional in a couple weeks (not annualized) by selling the Wayfair $35 puts. They expired worthless.

 

LEAPS and warrants interest me from an investment perspective... short term stuff, I'm more interested in being the insurance provider.

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I love options. Particularly, the yields I can get from selling them on stocks perceived to be particularly volatile. I recently made 5% on notional in a couple weeks (not annualized) by selling the Wayfair $35 puts. They expired worthless.

 

LEAPS and warrants interest me from an investment perspective... short term stuff, I'm more interested in being the insurance provider.

 

Had some ideas for this this year, as long as it is planned, nothing speaks against it. Was several times thinking this year about selling VRX put options near 80-90, would have been a good idea in hindsight. But i made some stupid bets on short-term put options in june that has cost me some money, or buying TLT for 2 weeks probably just out of boredom. Really interesting to go through all the trades of the year and rethinking of why i did that trade. Buying options with less than one or two years to expiration is definitly something i will not do again. (Made a big comment in my depot spreadsheet, maybe it helps.)

 

On the other hand without making short term sell decisions on some stocks, i would have lost a lot of money this year. For example i made money on VRX,SEC.TO,OUTR,Intralot and AIQ. Holding these stocks for 12 months would have easily cost 20% of my networth(instead of making 10%). Of course we can argue that buying them was the mistake in the first place.

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Quit active investing.

Really? - Please elaborate a bit, Jurgis.

 

I don't believe I add value through my investing decisions. And it probably would be more useful to society if I spent more time on projects in my primary occupation rather than trying to get extra return by actively investing.

 

I was trying to go this way this year already, but got sucked in into oil morass and some other interesting "opportunities".  8)

 

Most likely I'll just dump most money into BRK/Fairfax/Malone and couple more "forever" holds. I've been going in this direction already.

(And before we have religious argument that this is also "active" investing - yes, I know, next question  8) ).

 

The counterargument to this is that putting money in BRK/Fairfax this year would have been even worse than my oil-dragged portfolio.  :o But this is for 2015 results thread.  8)

 

Peace.

Thanks for your personal considerations, Jurgis.

 

Peace & respect!

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Most people should just be in index funds. I wouldn't talk him out of it.

 

At least its a lot more tax efficient, but on the other hand the 500 original companies of the S&P500 outperformed the index (and when you equal weight at the start even more). So maybe its a good idea to build an index yourself with >100 companies. It shouldn`t be too hard to exclude the crappy businesses. On the other hand you are back to active investing then. Maybe do it like Buffet and make buy once sell never decisions, that should be even better.

 

My goals for 2016 are

 

1) hold my weight

2) make more friends

3) stop trading options, OTC, microcaps and illiquid stocks and stop making stupid short term trades. (the last one was already on last years list, if someone has an idea to force myself to not do it, its welcome.)

 

For #3, Michael Lewis wrote that the Cornwall guys used to make presentations of their investment ideas.  I know that Lewis embellished a lot of the details in the book.  But when I see a good advice, I take it, even if it's false.  Anyway, I find that I tend to make a powerpoint slide for my largest position.  The rationale being that if you have to spend weeks creating a presentation and feel comfortable showing it to people, it implies that the idea has a lot of merit.  If you can't get past page 5 of the slide deck, you likely have an awful idea. 

 

Perhaps the solution is for you to pause and write down a 1-2 page thesis before you pull the trigger.  Just a thought. 

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I love options. Particularly, the yields I can get from selling them on stocks perceived to be particularly volatile. I recently made 5% on notional in a couple weeks (not annualized) by selling the Wayfair $35 puts. They expired worthless.

 

LEAPS and warrants interest me from an investment perspective... short term stuff, I'm more interested in being the insurance provider.

 

I also love options. In addition I use writing puts to enter my LTBH positions.

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